Andre Ramirez
Houston Texans -4
Houston has covered the spread in 19 of the last 27 games vs. AFC Conference Opponents and they have also covered the spread in 16 of the last 24 games when playing as a favorite.Houston has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games when playing in the 1st month of the season and they have covered the spread in 21 of the last 27 games when playing on a natural grass field.
Ray Monohan
New York Yankees +130
It has not been a good season for Yankees lefthander C.C. Sabathia. But it is crunch time now and if he is exactly the kind of pitcher who can gut out a win when need be, just like he did when he beat the Orioles last week. It wasn’t a vintage performance with 5 runs allowed but he got the job done and the Yanks have won 4 of his last 5 starts. New York is 3-1 in his starts against the O’s this season and I am more comfortable backing the horse I know than the horse I don’t, Orioles big winner Chris Tillman. Things are getting tight and the Yanks are loaded with guys who just get it done.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ San Diego Under 45: I am going with the Under in this The Charger offense has little in the way of weapons right now, so they will really have to rely on their run game and a revamped defense that really played well in the preseason. The Charger defensive front looks stout and the defensive backfield is also a plus for this team. The Chargers should be able to bottle up Foster enough to keep him from running wild on him and make this Houston team use long time consuming drives if the hope to score. The Houston defense is among the best in the league, led by JJ Watt and Brian Cushing, and hopefully they will have Ball Hawking DB Ed Reed in there as well. Let's seal the deal here with a very nice trend that states that Week 1 home dogs with an OU line of 44 or higher have gone 18-3 to the Under, since 2002. For the record this trend went 2-0 yesterday as Buffalo and Carolina both stayed Under the total. Let's make it a hat trick in what should be a low scoring defensive battle.
2 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Washington Under 53: I know the thought is to play all overs in Philly's early games this year, but I have a feeling this on will stay Under the total. Washington may not control the pace of the Philly offense on defense, but they will try for long time consuming drives on offense so to keep the Philly offense off the field. I don't expect Washington to try and score quickly. Now for Philly, just because their offense is high tempo, doesn't mean they will always score. Remember that is still Vick back there and he had allot of redzone turnovers the last coupe of years. Let's also note that game 1 divisional home favorites with an OU Line of 43 or higher are 11-4 to the Under, since 2004. Look for a lower scoring game here than most will expect.
Mike O'Connor
Philadelphia (+3.5) 28 WASHINGTON 27
The Eagles enter 2013 with a host of changes beginning with a brand new coaching staff, new offensive and defensive schemes and some new personnel in key spots, particularly the secondary. HC Chip Kelly takes over a team that disappointed in 2012 finishing just 4-12. Kelly is new to the NFL but had a huge amount of success as both offensive coordinator at New Hampshire (1999-2006) and OC and then HC at Oregon (2007-2012). As HC his overall record at Oregon was 33-3. He will bring creativity, innovation, and speed to the Eagles offense this year and the fact that Bill Belichick has a great deal of respect for him and sought him out as a consultant in the past says a lot. He hired Pat Shurmur (formerly of the Rams) as OC to assist him in implementation and execution of his offense. His choice for DC was Billy Davis who has previous DC experience with the Arizona Cardinals in 2009 and 2010 and had been the LB’s coach for the Browns in 2011,2012. Davis will be multiple in his approach but will utilize more 3-4 alignments which will require some adjustment. Offensively, the Eagles are a team with a lot of potential. They have a very good offensive line with players that seem to fit the scheme well. They have a dynamic running back in LeSean McCoy and a quarterback with a skill set that should work well in this offense. They lost WR’s Jeremy Maclin and Arrelious Benn in the preseason so they are a bit thin at WR, but have enough talent in spite of those losses with Jason Avant, DeSean Jackson and some good tight end receiving options. Defensively, the Eagles may be a work in progress but noteworthy acquisitions include OLB Connor Barwin, NT Isaac Sopoaga, and CB Cary Williams. Much of the secondary will be new and lacking in talent so there will be some growing pains. The CB position in particular is thin and may be exposed in coverage early. This should be an interesting team to watch as they may have some luck related regression potentially moving back towards the mean. The Eagles finished in the lower 25% of teams with a 38% fumble recovery rate in 2012. I expect Kelly to limit risk for Michael Vick in the passing game as he has had 45 turnovers in the past two years and is projected to be 8th in QB turnover risk by my metrics in 2013.
The Redskins are a team that benefitted from a new and dynamic offense in 2012 that took the league by storm. QB Robert Griffin performed unbelievably well as a rookie and orchestrated my 8th rated passing offense. This style of offense is truly synergistic as the pass and run are both optional and interchangeable, as the pass opens the run; the run clears way for the pass. Griffin is a talented but fragile QB and after last season there are legitimate concerns about his durability. Especially after hearing of Dr. James Andrews’s concerns, and with no preseason action in 2013, I would expect a scaled down version of what the offense looked like last year. With sensitivity regarding the manner in which Griffin was injured in the playoffs last season, it is reasonable to assume that there won’t be as many assignment based risks given to the franchise QB , at least in the early part of the season. Without the true threat of run that Griffin presented last year the offense could be somewhat neutered and as a result not as effective. There are clear rules in regards to the ability of the quarterback to run that every team has studied this offseason. It is currently understood that only when the QB drops back does he have passer protection and he is treated as a running back in all other circumstances, including when he slides down the line and either fakes or delivers an option. In addition, there will likely be a defensive player assigned to the QB in this style of offense, regardless of what he does. This dynamic nature of this offense truly depends on the health of Robert Griffin. Defensively, the Redskins were hurt by injuries to LB Brian Orakpo and DE Adam Carriker and finished with my 21st rated run defense. This year Orakpo is back but they lose DE Jarvis Jenkins and LB Rob Jackson to suspension for the first four games. They also will likely have two rookies playing significant roles in the defensive backfield in CB David Amerson and S Baccari Rambo. And just as the Eagles may be able to expect some fumble regression, the Redskins will be looking at just the opposite. They finished 2012 third in the league with a 65.79% fumble recovery rate in 2012.
My line on this game is Washington -6.5 so there does appear to be some value on the Redskins. Matchup analysis suggests plenty of points with a greater than average number of plays and offensive production on both sides. I’m not sure how Griffin will be compromised athletically so I am reluctant to recommend the Over 51 here. However, I do have a Week 1 system that plays on the Eagles and is 54-29. I also like the unknown element that the Eagles possess so in spite of the line difference (initial ratings are a bit unreliable), I will lean with Philadelphia in an upset. EAGLES 28-27.
SAN DIEGO (+3.5) 20 Houston 23
The Texans enter the 2013 season after a great first half of 2012 followed by a disappointing late season. After an 11-1 start they went just 2-4 the rest of the way including the playoffs. They never did seem to be the same team after getting thrashed by the Patriots on Monday night, seemingly losing their confidence. That sort of performance leads me to believe that this is a clearly talented, but not particularly mentally strong team. Or at least they were last year. Notable offseason changes are mainly on defense, losing LB Connor Barwin and gaining FS Ed Reed who may help in that regard. They did also draft talented WR DeAndre Hopkins who apparently performed well in camp before suffering a concussion in August. If he is well enough to contribute, his addition along with TE’s Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham could take some coverage away from WR Andre Johnson (who looked very good with 7 receptions for 131 yards in the first half of the Texans third preseason game). This is a good offense overall that benefits from a good play call mix and run/pass balance. Last year they finished 19th in rush offense and 14th in my pass efficiency metric. On defense they are very good with possibly the best defensive player in the game in DE J.J. Watt. They also have a return to health of LB Brian Cushing and skilled players in the secondary. Stability remains on the coaching staff which employs sound schemes on both sides of the ball. They were just above average overall in my defensive ratings in 2012, ranking 15th versus the run and 12th against the pass. Luck may not be with them this season as a regression from their 7th ranked fumble recovery rate is possible.
The Chargers are another team with regime change entering 2013, as Norv Turner was let go and Mike McCoy (formerly OC of the Broncos) was brought in. McCoy, along with new OC Ken Whisenhunt (formerly HC of the Cardinals) bring aboard a new offensive philosophy that will look to take advantage of personnel strengths while minimizing weaknesses. Given what amounts to a below average offensive line, the scheme will likely shift towards a quick passing based offense with more reliance on the running game. The offensive line was a big part of the problem last year as River was sacked once every 11.9 dropbacks which was worst in the NFL. That ratio actually increased in preseason game #2 with 12 dropbacks and 3 sacks. In preseason game number three Rivers threw for just 3.9 yards per attempt. Again, it’s only preseason but it certainly doesn’t inspire confidence in the protection group. Making things worse is the fact that the team lost starting WR Danario Alexander, leading receiver Malcolm Floyd was injured (he looks to be OK for Week 1 but he has not had much practice time) and WR Eddie Royal suffered a bruised lung and a concussion. They do get back WR Vincent Brown after missing last year due to injury and like rookie Keenan Allen from Cal. All this – (new coach and scheme, poor OL, missing receivers) translates into a passing attack that should struggle early. In fact, Rivers projects as 9th worst among current starting QB’s in my turnover projection model. RB Ryan Matthews has come back this preseason with apparently more focus and strength and may be relied on more if he can stay healthy. The Run game was terrible in 2012 finishing 30th in my ratings while the passing offense was marginally better with a 25th place finish. On the other side of the ball, DC John Pagano was retained so there is some continuity there. He will benefit from the added experience and pass rushing presence of new DE/LB Dwight Freeney who will bring some leadership to a young and talented group on the defensive line. Outside of FS Eric Weddle, the secondary is a work in progress with new pieces in place. If the secondary can improve in 2013, they have a chance to crack the top ten after finishing with my #11 overall defensive rating from 2012.
This game in theory seems much worse than my numbers suggest as I have the Texans -4.36. Matchup analysis also supports the premise that this game could get ugly. The Chargers should not be able to run or pass effectively in this game with the Texans passing game showing the only real advantage offensively. However, I do have a Week 1 system that applies to the Chargers and is 54-29. With respect given to the situation and despite the statistical support that suggests a Texans victory I will take a contrarian position and lean slightly to the Chargers plus the points. TEXANS 23-20
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (-4) over San Diego
We have seen the line on Houston as low as 4 at one of our favorite off-shore spots to as high as 6 in Vegas. The reason is simple and obvious. Houston is a much better team and has performed well both as a favorite, where they have covered the pointspread in 16 of the last 24 games when laying points, and the Texans have started the season strong under Head Coach Gary Kubiak covering the spread in 7 of the last 8 games in September. San Diego's weak offensive line will not be able to contain JJ Watt, Brian Cushing and company and Phillip Rivers will be running for his life most of the game. Take the Texans.