Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August, 10

Marc Lawrence

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: San Diego Padres

The Padres send Tyson Ross to the mound against Tony Cingrani and the Reds in Game Two of this three-game series in Cincinnati Saturday evening. Cingrani toes the slab knowing he served up a total of 102 pitches in five innings of work in an 8-3 'inside-out' win over St. Louis in his most recent start last Sunday. Meanwhile, Ross enters the game 3-0 with a super-sharp 1.35 ERA in his last three away team starts. Grab the value with the better form arm here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.

Rocketman

Detroit @ NY Yankees
Play On: Detroit -140

The Detroit Tigers travel to New York to take on the Yankees on Saturday afternoon. Detroit is now 7-1 in August after an extra inning loss to the Yankees last night. Detroit is 9-2 this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Detroit is allowing only 2 runs per game their past seven games overall where opposing teams have a combined .201 batting average. The Yankees are scoring only 2.7 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of only .212. Anibal Sanchez is 9-7 with a 2.58 ERA overall this year, has a 3.03 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA his last 3 starts. Phil Hughes is 4-10 with a 4.87 ERA overall this year, 1-7 with a 6.02 ERA at home this season and 0-1 with a 7.29 ERA his last 3 starts. Hughes has more walks than strike outs his past three games at 8 to 6. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit today!

Stephen Nover

Philadelphia Phillies -103

The market acted early on this game turning the Nationals - who opened an underdog - to making them pick, or even a favorite at some books.

Perhaps this very early money is a reaction to Washington whipping Philadelphia, 9-2, on Friday. That was against former teammate soft-tossing John Lannan.

Now the Nationals get another lefty, Cliff Lee. The Phillies are 3-15 in their last 18 games. Lee has lost his last three starts. I acknowledge these facts. But I will get involved now that you can take a 'dog price on Lee.

The Phillies have won six of the last seven times Lee has been an underdog. You also would have to go back to 2007 to find the last time Lee dropped four straight starts.

Lee should not be an underdog, especially facing rookie Taylor Jordan, who has a 3.76 ERA and is going through growing pains. This is the Phillies' second look now at Jordan having faced him a month ago when they scored four runs off him in 5 2/3 innings during a 4-2 victory.

It is a huge mistake to get excited about the Nationals following one of their rare offensive outbursts. The Nationals are 4-9 the last 13 times they've been home favorites. They are 0-7 the last seven times after scoring five or more runs in their previous game.

One nine-run performance doesn't make up for four months of poor play. The Nationals, to put it bluntly, are as dead as Jimmy Hoffa. They are 15 1/2 games out of the NL East lead and nine games behind the Reds for the second wild-card spot. Davey Johnson is a lame duck manager.

The Nationals are going to have problems with Lee and it's not just the due factor kicking in for Lee. Washington entered this series ranking last in batting average against southpaws hitting .215. They also have the lowest OPS (.643) versus southpaws. Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Denard Span were a combined 6-for-70 (.085) batting before Friday's game.

Lee can certainly tame the Nationals while the Phillies' offense can awaken against Jordan especially with Domonic Brown back in the lineup.

Jimmy Boyd

Arizona Diamondbacks -143

The Mets have looked horrible in the batters box this season and its been especially bad over their past seven games. During that time they have a .227 batting average and they are scoring a mere 2.7 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have turned things on recently, and they are batting .296 over their past seven games and scoring 4.6 runs per game.

The Mets perform at their worst when facing a right handed starter so I expect them to struggle against McCarthy today. Over his last three starts McCarthy has performed very well with the exception of his road matchup against the Rangers. When facing Boston in his most recent start he allowed just 2 earned runs in 4.3 innings and have five strikeouts. Prior to his matchup against the Rangers he gave up just five hits in 7 innings and allowed only one earned run against the Padres. The talent is there for McCarthy and I expect him to have a big night against this soft Mets offense.

Alex Smart

Los Angeles Dodgers -148

Hernandez the Rays starter today vs the home town Dodgers has not pitched well on the road this season as is evident by recording a 1-7 record and 5.71 ERA in nine road starts. Meanwhile, his veteran pitching opponent Greinke has pitched very well at Dodger Stadium this season , recording a 5-1 record aiong with a stable 2.96 ERA in nine trips to the hill this year.Greinke has also been red hot at the plate, batting .405 (15-for-37) on the season.

TB after getting great pitching and timely hitting has hit a speed bump having lost five games in seven outings, which includes three straight losses vs NL West combatants Arizona and the Dodgers where the team was smacked around for 22 runs Im betting the Rays will have their hands full again today against a explosive Dodgers team that is .18-3 since the All-Star break and has converted 35 times in their last 43 games on the moneyline!

Justin Bay

Brewers vs. Mariners
Play: Under 7½

Tom Gorzelanny
- Career vs. SEA: 7.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1.09 WHIP, .276 OBA
- Away: 2.79 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .184 OBA
- Mariners hitters vs. Gorzelanny in his career: .304 BA

Hisashi Iwakuma
- Home: 2.48 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, .191 OBA
- Coming off solid start vs. TOR: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER

The Brewers are one of the worst offensive teams in the MLB and facing Iwakuma who has had a very good season for the Mariners. The Mariners also struggle to put runs up on the board and Gorzelanny has pitched well against them in his career. Look for this game to be low scoring.

Los Angeles Dodgers -152

Roberto Hernandez
- Away: 5.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .298 OBA
- Dodgers hitters vs. Hernandez in his career: .274 BA

Zack Greinke
- Career vs. TAM: 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, .268 OBA
- Home: 2.56 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .224 OBA
- Coming off quality start @ STL: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER
- Rays hitters vs. Greinke in his career: .216 OBA

The Rays are coming off a tough loss in last night's game being up 6-0 and watching the Dodgers score 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th to take the win. Look for the Dodgers to come out strong with Greinke on the mound.

Baltimore Orioles -120

Wei-Yin Chen
- Away: 3.14 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .262 OBA
- 6-4 W/L, 2.95 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Chad Guadin
- Career vs. BAL: 5.48 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, .337 OBA
- Home: 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .207 OBA
- Orioles hitters vs. Gaudin in his career: .343 OBA

The one stat that stands out is the success that the Orioles hitters have had against Gaudin. The Orioles have been one of the best hitting teams in the MLB and I think Gaudin is going to have his hands full in this game.

Jim Feist

Pirates vs. Rockies
Play: Under 9

Pittsburgh is an under team, with an offense ranked 21st in runs and slulgging, 19th in on base percentage. The under is 33-14-4 in the Pirates last 51 Saturday games and 4-1-2 under the total against a team with a losing record. A.J. Burnett is on a roll with a 1.17 ERA his last three starts fanning 23 with only 5 walks! The under is 24-11-1 in Burnett's last 36 starts and 19-6-1 under the total against teams with a losing record. Colorado's offense has cooled off, on a 5-1-1 run under the total. And when these teams meet the under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Art Aronson

Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8½

Carlos Villanueva (2-8, 4.16 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Villanueva is coming off one of his better starts of the season but still got saddled with a 1-0 loss vs. the Dodgers on Sunday, yielding one run off two hits with three walks while striking out five over six innings of work. Despite the decent outing, Villanueva has not won since late June and has allowed eight earned runs combined over his last three starts. He'll take his poor 1-4, 4.83 ERA road record into St. Louis to throw opposite Michael Wacha (1-0, 4.58 ERA) who has been called up from Triple-A Memphis to make this start; Wacha has in fact made four starts for the Cards this year, sporting a pedestrian 4.58 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and 14:4 K:BB ratio over his 17 2/3's innings of work. When two suspect starters face off against each other, the "over" is always a viable option to consider.

Jack Jones

Cleveland Indians -115

The Cleveland Indians have lost five straight games coming into this one to drop to 62-54 on the season. They are now seven games behind Detroit for first place in the AL Central and highly motivated for a victory. I look for them to stop the bleeding Saturday.

Ubaldo Jimenez has pitched well of late for the Cleveland Indians. He is 8-6 with a 4.18 ERA on the season, and 1-2 with a 2.04 ERA in his last three starts.

C.J. Wilson has struggled of late for Los Angeles, going 1-0 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.637 WHIP in his last three starts. Wilson has been at his worst on the road, posting a 4.73 ERA and 1.550 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.

The Angels are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter, including 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-hander. Cleveland is 6-0 in Jimenez's last 6 starts as a favorite. The Indians are 21-6 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Cleveland Saturday.

Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers -1½ -120

Texas qualifies in a road warrior system that has won 11 of 12 times since 2004 and plays on road favorites off a road favored win if thy were -200 or higher in the win and scored 5 or more runs with no more than 1 error, vs an opponent off a home dog +140 or higher loss while also scoring 5+ runs. Texas has won 10 of 13 here and 7 of 8 this month. They are 10-3 of late vs losing teams and are averaging 6 runs the past week. Houston has lost 6 of 7 in August and has struggled vs winning teams. They have Peacock pitching tonight and he has not fared well losing 5 of 6 starts with a 7.31 era. D. Holland goes for Texas and he has won 10 of 12 road starts with a 2.61 era. This one seems like a no brainer in all aspects. Take Texas.

Bruce Marshall

Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Oakland Athletics

With Texas having pulled abreast in the AL West and Kansas City making a run at the wild card, Oakland can ill afford to slump. Which is why last night's 14-run explosion in Toronto was a welcome development for the A's as their offense has come to life after a brief respite. Granted, nemesis Mark Buehrle is on the mound this afternoon for the Blue Jays, and while he has been tough on Oakland lately, his form lately has been rather bipolar, allowing four or more runs in 4 of his last 8 starts.has been very shaky, and he was not sharp last Sunday vs. the Angels, allowing 5 runs and 7 hits over six IP. Meanwhile, young A's righty Sonny Gray makes his MLB debut today, and the former first round choice from Vanderbilt had been performing with great success at Sacramento in the PCL, as his ten wins ranked atop the league.

Will Rogers

Boston vs. Kansas City
Pick: Under

We have 2 starting pitchers here, Felix Doubront & Jeremy Guthrie, that didn't allow a single run in their last respective starts. In the case of Guthrie, he threw a complete game. The Royals are absolutely on fire right now, taking the first two games of this 4-game set & they've now won 15 of their last 17 overall. This game though goes Under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Doubront - He has a 2.41 ERA his last three starts, all of which have gone Under. Overall, his last four starts have gone Under as have six of the last seven, all of which have seen him give up three earned runs or less. Here, Doubront will be facing a Royals lineup that is averaging just 3.4 runs per game vs. lefties, going 22-10 Under.

2. Guthrie - He has been even hotter than Doubront of late with a 3-0 TSR and 1.29 ERA his last three starts. As I mentioned, he threw a complete game shutout his last start. It didn't go Under though as the Royals scored 13 runs against Minnesota pitching. Yet, Kansas City is still 64-44 Under this season. Guthrie has allowed just three earned runs in his last 21 innings pitched.

3. X-Factor - The Red Sox have gone Under in 20 of their last 33 games overall.

Jesse Schule

Tampa Bay vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are the hottest team in the major leagues, winning 18-of-21 since the All Star break. Last night it looked like Tampa would take the series opener at Chavez Ravine, but L.A. scored four runs on closer Fernando Rodney in the bottom of the ninth, stealing the game away from the Rays. Tampa has now lost three straight, and it doesn't get any easier as they face Zack Greinke tonight.

Grienke (9-3, 3.40 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 3-2 win on the road in St. Louis his last time out. He's been even sharper at home, with a record of 5-1, 2.56 ERA in nine starts in Los Angeles this season. Evan Longoria hasn't had much success versus Greinke, going 3-for-19 lifetime.

The Rays hand the ball to Roberto Hernandez, who has really struggled on the road this season. Hernandez (6-11, 4.75 ERA) allowed three runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings in a no decision at home against the Giants his last time out. Five of his six wins this year have come at home, and his numbers on the road are not encouraging. He's 1-7 with a 5.71 ERA in nine starts away from Tropicana Field.

Hanley Ramirez came in to pinch hit for the Dodgers last night, and he should make his return to the lineup Saturday. With Ramirez and ‪#‎Puig‬ both hitting better than .350, the Rays pitching staff will have their hands full.

Bryan Power

Texas vs. Houston
Pick: Texas

The Rangers have regained control of the second Wild Card spot in the American League thanks to their own 10-1 stretch coinciding w/ a five-game Cleveland Indians losing streak. At this point, it does not appear as if the last place Houston Astros will be providing much resistance in stopping the Rangers. Take Texas here....

These are two teams going in different directions. While Texas has now won 10 of 11, Houston has lost 9 of its last 11 games. The Astros are, without question, the worst team in baseball this year. That was expected. But they enter today 40 games under .500 and w/ a -171 run differential. The Rangers have really had their number, taking 8 of 10 meetings this season, including 6 of 7 here at Minute Maid Park. Last night, it was a 9-5 win in favor of the visitors.

Lefty Derek Holland has been a revelation for Texas this season. The southpaw has a 3.02 ERA in his 23 starts this season, and has been particularly good on the road w/ a 2.61 ERA and 1.161 WHIP. His team start record is 10-2. Last time out, he threw eight shutout innings in a 4-0 win at Oakland. Houston comes in averaging just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties for the season. Their own starter hardly inspired much confidence as Brad Peacock checks in with a 7.31 ERA in six starts. The team has lost his last four.