John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
I had the Rockies as a 108 play last night and the dog came through big with a 10-1 thrashing of the MLB-best-record Pirates. The simulator shows a high probability that the Pirates will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 73-55 mark for 57% winners and has made 42 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on road teams (PITTSBURGH) with a tired and depleted bullpen after 2 straight games throwing 5+ innings, in August games. We have all heard of plays being made because the opposing bullpen is depleted and tired and will have no one left to contain the scoring and keep the opponent in the game. This system proves otherwise and moreover, it supports arguably the best TEAM in MLB. The Rockies season is gone in terms of being in playoff contention and the Pirates have done very well against teams they SHOULD defeat this season. Pirates are a money making 43-19 (+23.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Take the Pirates.
Joe Gavazzi
Pittsburgh -2.5
Each of these perennial Playoff contenders failed to get to the promised land last year due to late season meltdowns. Don't be surprised if each is in the hunt again this season. Though neither of the marquee QBs, Eli and Ben, figure to see significant playing time in this, I am favoring the Steelers home field behind their new zone blocking schemes which are geared to return them to the league's overland elite. There is more excitement than usual on the summer sports scene in the Burgh. With the Pirates holding the best record in MLB, neighboring PNC Park has had near sellouts on a nightly basis. With a night off to renew their vocal cords, look for the Pirates fans to be joined by the Steeler faithful in a resounding Heinz Field celebration. Plenty to prove for both teams but tonight at home, Pittsburgh gets the job done!
Doug Upstone
Cincinnati Reds -198
For Saturday, Play Against road underdogs like San Diego with a money line of +175 to +250, with a NL starting pitcher (Tyson Ross 2-5, 2.91 ERA)whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, against a NL opponent with a starting pitcher (Tony Cingrani (5-1, 3.05)whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the year. Hitting the way back 16 years, this baseball system is 59-7, 89.4 percent.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers -1.5 -124
The Rangers have won their last five games with each win coming by at least three runs. They're in good position to cover another run line against a Houston club that has dropped three in a row by two runs or more. Texas has won six straight in Houston with five of these victories coming by two runs or more. The Rangers clearly have the advantage on the mound with Holland, who's 7-1 with a 2.61 ERA in 12 road starts. Houston's Peacock is 1-4 with a 7.31 ERA in six starts, including 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA at home. Take Texas on the run line.
Steve Janus
Boston Red Sox -122
Boston's Felix Doubront is one of the more underrated starters in the game. While he's just 8-5 overall, Doubront has a strong 3.26 ERA over his 20 starts. He comes into this one having pitched extremely well of late, posting a 2.41 ERA over his last three outings. Boston has won both of his career starts vs the Royals.
Kansas City will counter with Jeremy Guthrie. While Guthrie has pitched well in 2013, he's not had a lot of success against the Red Sox. He's just 3-7 with 5.01 ERA over 19 starts. He's allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last three starts vs Boston.
Boston has several strong trends backing them to a victory. They are 30-17 in their last 43 games following a loss, 27-10 over their last 37 in games where they are -110 to -150, 15-5 as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-3 in Doubront's last 13 starts in road games with a total of 7 to 8.5.
Dave Essler
Phillies / Nationals Over 7.5
Doubt this goes to 7 again, and won't miss a + number here. Been wrong before, but since we're seeing things well, let's not hesitate here. It's not always easy to take a Nationals over, and just because they scored last night certainly doesn't mean they do tonight. However, most of the Phillies have in fact hit Lee pretty well over the course of time, and the weather is warm in DC tonight. The other thing working in our favor is that the line is moving towards Philadelphia. I am not really sure I agree with that, but let's assume for a second it's right. That would obviously mean that Hand will get scored on, and honestly, neither bullpen has been impressive. In fact, Washington's bullpen ERA over the last week out of the pen is 4.34, when combined with the fact that hand shouldn't pitch deep, is telling me the Phillies do get their share. Jim Reynolds is behind the plate, and 70% of the NL games he's done have gone over the number. This number went to 7 at CRIS very briefly overnight, and I do mean very, which tells me that A) they won't let it stay there and b) they're thinking like I'm thinking. I was concerned about the fact that Ramos won't be catching, but Suzuki has hit Lee well, and having Ramos off the bench may not suck later.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels -104 over CLEVELAND
The Indians have dropped five in a row and have only scored 13 runs over that span. In fact, Cleveland has scored three runs or fewer in five of its past six games. It’s not the best time to go cold and suddenly pressure mounts in the heat of a pennant race and for most of these Indians players, it’s unchartered territory. The Indians bullpen was used extensively last night after Scott Kazmir lasted just three innings. That bullpen could be called upon early again today because Ubaldo Jimenez is a pitcher in trouble. Decreased velocity and a lack of control continue to plague Jimenez. Jimenez had great success between 2009-2011 when he won 44 games but those days are long gone. This year, he’s walked 62 batters in 110 frames and that doesn’t bode well against the Angels good hitting line-up that plays aggressively on the base-paths. Jimenez also had high groundball % when he was successful; he’s given up more fly balls in 2012/13. Part of his problem is due to dropping velocity. While he averaged 96 mph in 2009/2010, he was at 92.5 in 2012 and 91.9 this year. Jimenez’s quality start/disaster split of 41%/27% highlights his fading skills. In his heyday, he posted 79%/12% in 2009 and 82%/6% in 2010. Jimenez is now two years removed from that success. Between decreased velocity and the inability to avoid free passes, Jimenez remains a very risky favorite, especially now that the Tribe have cooled off.
They say that misery loves company and the Angels are only too happy to make life miserable for these contenders. They are now playing with no pressure whatsoever and could be a very live pooch the rest of the way. C.J. Wilson has rebounded nicely after a tough April and he keeps getting better. Over his last five starts covering 33 frames, Wilson has struck out 32 batters to go along with his 3.48 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He accomplished that with a low strand rate of 68%. Wilson now has 137 K’s in 147 innings. He also has a strong groundball rate of 48%. Of his 23 starts, 18 of them have been of the pure quality variety including four of the last five. Wilson has also walked fewer batters each month since the start of the year and is in fine form heading into this one. C.J. Wilson and the Halos offer up much more value at a pick 'em than the cold combination of Jimenez and the Indians.
San Diego over CINCINNATI
Tony Cingrani is a rookie pitcher with nice upside but he’s way overvalued here. Cingrani threw 103 pitches in his last start in just five frames before being yanked. Against Atlanta on July 14, he threw 96 pitches in four frames before getting the hook. Two starts back he threw 119 pitches in 6.2 frames against the Dodgers and that’s the problem with this guy. Cingrani is throwing far too many pitches per at bat and when you allow hitters at this level to see that many pitches, it’s going to bite you. Over his last four starts, Cingrani has walked 12 in 23 frames. He has a nifty 3.05 ERA on the year but a 5.06 xERA over his last seven starts tells us he’s playing with fire. Another warning sign in Cingrani’s profile is his 33%/47% groundball/fly-ball split, which suggests an implosion at this park is inevitable. As a close to 2-1 favorite, Tony Cingrani is a huge risk.
Pressed-into service due to injuries, Tyson Ross has been stellar in his first three starts since joining the rotation, with all of them being of the pure quality variety (20 IP, 22/6 K/BB). Two of those starts came on the road, so his success can't be attributed to the magic of Petco Park. For the season (much of it in relief), he has a 2.91 ERA and an encouraging 51% groundball rate in 65 IP. As a starter, Ross has a 1.35 ERA which is fully supported by an xERA of 2.64. Perhaps the most encouraging stat in Ross’s profile is an elite 9% line-drive rate since being inserted into the rotation and that is the lowest line-drive rate in the majors over any three starts this season. Win or lose, we’re getting tremendous value on Ross and we’re not about to pass it up. Definite overlay.
Detroit -1½ +106 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Yanks managed to pull one out last night but that was their first win since A-Rod rejoined the team and the Yanks had a pitching matchup in their favor. Today they do not. Phil Hughes is 1-7 at Yankee Stadium with a rough 6.02 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Hughes has surrendered five bombs over his last two starts at Yankee Stadium and it’s no mystery as to why. A 29%/45% groundball/fly-ball rate has led to a 15% hr/f at home. Phil Hughes cannot keep the ball in the yard. Over his last four starts, Hughes has a 1.68 WHIP and in his last start he walked three batters while whiffing just one. Hughes is regressing.
Over its past 20 games, New York ranks at or near the bottom of every key offensive category, including runs scored, team batting average, on base % and HR’s. They now have to face one of the game’s best. Anibal Sanchez has struck out 131 batters in 119 innings. In six starts since coming off the DL, he’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of them. In his last start, Sanchez struck out 11 Indians and you may also remember that he struck out 17 Braves in a game earlier this year. Sanchez has elite numbers right across the board but he pitches in the shadows of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, making him the most undervalued of the three. Sanchez figures to get plenty of run support here and he should easily take care of the rest.
Wunderdog
Baltimore at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco +121
This season has really been a disappointing one for the San Francisco Giants. They have gone from first to worst in the NL West. The pitching, which was considered a team strength, has been struggling. One addition to the rotation has been very strong in Chad Gaudin. Gaudin has allowed more than 3 runs just two times in 10 starts. He is 5-1, and his ERA is just over 2.5 on the season. The Giants have shined in interleague home games where they are 26-10 in their last 36. Baltimore enters this one just 2-5 when Chen takes the mound vs. a losing team. This is a good spot for the home dog here, so take San Francisco.
Ben Burns
Minnesota vs. Chi. White Sox
Pick: Over
The "over" has gone 6-3-1 in the Chicago/Minnesota season series. Those games have averaged 9.5 runs. I feel this one has an excellent shot at also finishing with at least nine runs.
Pelfrey has made two starts against the White Sox, both of them coming this season. Both of those games topped the total, Pelfrey compiling an ugly 8.10 ERA and 2.000 WHIP.
While the Twins averaged five runs in yesterday's double-header, the Sox have scored five or more runs in three of their last five games.
Manager Ron Gardenhire said of U.S. Cellular Field: "The ball flies here. We put some good swings out there, got enough runs."
Consider the Over 8.5
Harry Bondi
NY GIANTS (+2.5) over Pittsburgh
Intense Giants head coach Tom Coughlin likes winning whether it's regular or pre-season. Giants were again 3-1 ATS last pre-season and Coughlin said earlier this week that the starters will play a quarter which is a lot for the first pre-season game giving us an idea where Coughlins head is at for this game. With a number of jobs up for grabs on both sides of the ball, we expect ther G-Men to play well and take this one.
Harry Bondi
NY GIANTS (+2.5) over Pittsburgh
Intense Giants head coach Tom Coughlin likes winning whether it's regular or pre-season. Giants were again 3-1 ATS last pre-season and Coughlin said earlier this week that the starters will play a quarter which is a lot for the first pre-season game giving us an idea where Coughlins head is at for this game. With a number of jobs up for grabs on both sides of the ball, we expect ther G-Men to play well and take this one.