SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta -103 over N.Y. METS
The Mets are in a bad way right now. They beat the Marlins on Thursday to end a nine-game home losing streak but reverted back to their losing ways last night in a 4-0 defeat in this series opener. They’ve now lost six in a row to these Braves while being outscored 48-22.
Johan Santana will re-enter the rotation after a stint on the DL to recover from an ankle injury. He had an ugly 13.50 ERA in three July starts and will face a red-hot Braves team that has now won 13 of their past 16 games. Furthermore, the Braves are as familiar with Santana as they are any pitcher in the league. Current Atlanta hitters have 241 career AB’s against Santana with 74 hits for a BA of .304 and an eye-opening OPS of .824.
Kris Medlen is healthy and is finally getting a look in the Atlanta rotation, something that his skills have warranted for the past several months. He posted outstanding skills in relief in May, June and July including a 50%+ groundball rate in the latter two. His ERA is an impressive 2.37 but since joining the rotation, it’s a miniscule 1.23. Medlen is unheralded because he did not play a significant role in the Braves pen and has made just two starts since joining the rotation. Two years removed from Tommy John Surgery, he appears to be blossoming into the hurler that the Braves were so high on. He has full skills support and his stock is likely to soar any time now. Jump on board before that happens. Price here is way too cheap to pass up on.
Seattle +216 over L.A. ANGELS
The Mariners lost the opener last night but they still tallied five runs and have scored plenty in a recent run of seven wins in eight games.
Dan Haren is just 8-8 in 20 starts with a 4.44 ERA. At home, where he is a game under .500, his ERA is 4.12. Haren was scratched from his August 1 start due to back stiffness, suggesting that his back or health issues haven't disappeared. We’re seeing a dip in his strikeout rate and continuing decline in his fastball velocity for the third consecutive year. Over his last two starts, his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split was a disconcerting 23%/33%/44%. Haren is an “old” 31. He’s been on and off the DL for years, he has pitched more than 1800 innings and he’s showing signs of fatigue. He’s not the type of pitcher you want to be spotting almost 2½-1 with.
Conversely, Hisashi Iwakuma is exactly the type of pitcher you want to be taking back a price like this on. He got off to a really rough start in his first taste of North American baseball but since joining the rotation, he’s been much better. Twice, in six of his starts, Iwakuma has allowed just one run and one of those efforts was against the Yankees. He’s allowed three runs or less in five of his six starts. He has a good strikeout rate, (54 k’s in 61 innings), a rock solid groundball rate of 52% and he’s getting better with each passing week. Regardless of outcome, price being offered here is much too generous.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit Tigers -136
The Tigers, who have won 7 of 9 overall, are showing value at this price with ace Justin Verlander on the hill. The Tigers are 37-14 in Verlander's last 51 starts and 17-8 in his last 25 road starts. Plus, he has had the Rangers' number.
The reigning AL MVP is 8-3 (9-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.62 in 12 career starts against Texas. He gave up no earned runs and only 4 hits in a victory over the Rangers earlier this season.
Texas' Derek Holland, who has a 5.18 ERA on the season and a 6.35 ERA in 3 career starts versus Detroit, doesn't inspire the same confidence. The Rangers are just 2-14 in Holland's last 16 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Tigers.
DAVID BANKS
Texans / Panthers Under 35.5
The Houston Texans made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last year and they are considered to be a threat to reach the Super Bowl this season, while the Carolina Panthers improved to 6-10 last year as Cam Newton won Rookie of the Year honors. The two teams square off on Saturday night from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC at 7:00 ET on NFL Network. Coach Gary Kubiak is 13-11 straight up (13-9-2 ATS) in preseason since becoming the Houston coach in 2006, while Ron Rivera went 1-3 both straight up and ATS in his first year at the helm last season.
The Texans nearly reached the 2011 AFC Championship Game with back-up quarterback T.J, Yates under center, and the defense improved by leaps and bounds after the hiring of Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator, so the optimism this year is understandable. Texans' starting quarterback Matt Schaub will see his first game action Saturday since missing the final eight games of last season with a foot injury, but the game plan currently calls for he and backup Yates to play just a limited number of snaps, with third stringer John Beck and University of Houston standout Case Keenum getting the bulk of the action. None of the quarterbacks will have Andre Johnson to throw to as he is out after injuring his groin in practice last week, but that may allow Houston to get longer looks at rookie fourth-round draft choice Keshawn Martin and second year man Lestar Jean, as at least one of them may see extended playing time this season with the departure of Jacoby Jones, who started opposite of Johnson (when Johnson was on the field that is) last year. The running game is obviously not a concern as Houston finished second in the NFL in rushing in 2011.
Cam Newton had one of the best seasons by a rookie ever last season while breaking too many records to count, but for the Panthers to move up to the next level and become playoff contenders, they will need much improved play from the defense. The play of the Carolina linebackers in this preseason opener bears watching, as this will mark the professional debut of Luke Kuechly out of Boston College and fellow linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis are both coming back from injuries. That trio could be the first step toward the Panthers challenging for a division title in an NFC South that could be down this year. Back on offense, Newton will only play a few series, and like Schaub, Newton will also be without his favorite target as Steve Smith is out with a bruised knee. Once Newton departs the competition will be on for his back-up spot between Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen.
Apparently Kubiak likes getting off to quick starts as the Texans are 4-2 straight up in Week 1 of preseason under his guidance. Interestingly, Rivera's only win in preseason last year came in his Carolina coaching debut in Week 1. This is a rematch of a regular season meeting in Houston last season when Carolina pulled the 28-13 upset as a 4-point underdog.
Dave Price
LA Dodgers -122
Fading the Marlins, who have lost 16 of their last 23, with Nolasco on the hill. The Fish are 0-5 in Nolasco's last 5 starts and 1-6 in his last 7 home starts. He has given up at least 4 runs in each of his last 5 starts. LA' Blanton, meanwhile, has allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 4 starts. The Dodgers have won 4 in a row on the road and have taken 4 of the last 5 meetings with Miami.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays -180
The Rays have won 4 in a row, and they are 7-2 in their last 9 in Minnesota. Expect them to keep right on rolling Saturday with ace David Price on the mound. He is 14-4 with a 2.49 ERA on the season. Compare that to Minnesota's Blackburn, who is 4-7 with a 7.42 ERA. The Rays are 4-1 in Price's last 5 road starts and 22-7 in his last 29 starts as a road favorite. The Twins are 2-6 in Blackburn's last 8 starts as a home underdog. Bet the Rays.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ed Herman +155 over Jake Shields
Jake Shields came to the UFC two years ago on the heels of a huge win over Dan Henderson and a ton of hype behind him. The hype train has slowed down considerably as he has gone 2-2 in the UFC and hasn't wowed with his performances. Granted, he has fought elite competition but his vaunted wrestling and submission game has been somewhat neutralized since his time in the big show. This fight is a new start of sorts for Shields, as it is his first fight in the UFC at middleweight, which is the weight class he fought in when he defeated Dan Henderson in 2010. This is a much more comfortable weight class for him.
Ed "Short Fuse" Herman comes into this fight having finished three straight after being out of action for two years due to a knee injury. Like Shields, he is skilled at wrestling and submissions. Although he doesn't have great hand speed, his punching power is under-rated and more than enough to stun an opponent and allow him a chance to finish by ground and pound or submission. Herman also is good at recognizing when he has an opponent in trouble and aggressively goes for the finish.
Shields’ goes into all his fights with a grappling advantage. In fact he is one of the best at combining American wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. The big equalizer in all of his fights is that his standup is so far behind the rest of his game and his cardio has also been suspect. Short Fuse can exploit both weaknesses. If he doesn't get overzealous with his striking and allow himself to get taken down he can out-strike Shields and also tire him out. This fight is in Denver. The high altitude causes any athlete to tire if they are not acclimated to it. Ed Herman lives in Fort Collins, which is an hour away from Denver and has a little higher elevation. He will not be fighting the effects of high altitude. If Herman can drag this fight past the 1st round his chances of winning greatly increase. There are enough factors in Herman's favor to warrant a bet on the guy who's fighting in his own backyard.
Tony George
Pittsburgh -162
I really never lay this type of number but a chalky board on Saturday and I think this is a 4 run win today for the Pirates. Well worth the stretch today gents. The are 10-0 in Burnett's home plate appearances and they should get over on Padres at home with their bats as the Pads starter has near a 6 ERA on the year. Run support for a home starter that has a 2 ERA at home this year!
Harry Bondi
Houston +3 over Carolina
Two items you must look at when handicapping the preseason are how teams have fared in the past and the QB rotation. The Texans have a huge advantage in both tonight. The Panthers are typically disinterested when it comes to the preseason as they come in with a 4-12 ATS record since 2008. And while the Texans are expected to only play starting QB Matt Schaub and the starters for 10 to 15 plays, they will be in much better shape at QB late in the game with back-ups TJ Yates, John Beck and Case Keenum calling the signals. Yates was the starter for much of last year, Beck has NFL starting experience and has taken a liking to the Houston system and although he's a rookie, Keenum has been getting high praise from the coaching staff. The Panthers are only going to play starter Cam Newton for a few series and then will turn it over to Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen, who both are marginal NFL players, at best. Take the points.
SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner tonight is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Philadelphia Phillies, and I'm not exactly sure whether or not this is because I like Jake Westbrook, or I'm playing against Cliff Lee.
Either way, the defending World Series champions are the right side of this game, and I'll go ahead and list both.
Can you believe we're in mid-May and Lee has just two wins? And while I'm sure he'll be hungry in taking the mound against the Cards, in search of win No. 3, there's something not right about him this season. He's in after a no-decision against the D-backs who tagged him for three home runs. Now he has to take on the No. 2 offense in the league, and this will be all bad for him.
As for Westbrook, he's won each of his last four starts, putting him within one win of his 2011 total. He comes into this start plenty fresh, as he threw a mere 79 pitches on Monday, and not for a bad reason, but more so because the Cardinals were in need of a pinch-hit. I don't think he's going to have any problem with the Phillies' lineup.
3* ST. LOUIS
CHUCK O'BRIEN
I'm taking the Houston Astros plus the money against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Houston won last night, and could very well be on the verge of a winning streak. Don't get me wrong, I don't think there will be some miraculous surge in the National League Central Division, but they could win a handful consecutively.
Don't be surprised by tonight's outcome, if the margin is large, as the Brewers are handing the ball to right-hander Marco Estrada, who is 0-5 with a 4.13 ERA on the year. I know he looked good in his last outing, giving up one run in six innings against St. Louis on Sunday, but his ERA is 4.24 over his last three trips to the rubber. That's higher than his season figure.
Course, Houston left-hander Dallas Keuchel is no better this season, as he's 1-4 with a 5.60 ERA on the year, so there has to be a better reason to assume the Astros win this game.
Blame it on moist air! Yes, the humidity is big culprit this time a year.
That's why the Washington Nationals struggled to win in H-town, winning the first three of the four-game set by just one run. And that's why the Brewers will struggle in this weekend set.
2* HOUSTON
CHRIS JORDAN
Those hapless San Diego Padres are on an East coast tour, and tonight isn't going to be nice. Not against Pittsburgh's veteran right-hander A.J. Burnett, who has had a resurgent season for the Pirates. You'd never guess this guy struggled for the New York Yankees in a project gone wrong.
Burnett, who has a World Series ring from his heyday with the then-Florida Marlins, is 14-3 with a 3.19 ERA on the year, and comes in having won four straight starts. And even stronger, for this game in particular, when pitching at PNC Park he is 7-0 with a 2.00 ERA.
He also happens to be in after being named National League Player of the Week. He was 2-0 against the Cubs and Reds on the strength of a 1.02 ERA in 17-2/3 innings.
Look for Burnett to shut down the Friars and the Bucs to provide enough run support to get this run-line win.
3* PITTSBURGH -1.5
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie goes on the afternoon card as I play the Yankees and Blue Jays to hold under the total.
I am well aware that both Ivan Nova and Aaron Laffey have had their fair share of problems on the mound their last few starts out, and also aware that last night's game did easily go Over the total, but it is hard for me to overlook the overwhelming fact that six of the last seven series meetings dating back to last year have stayed under the posted total.
Last night's Over was the exception in this series, as the low has come through to a 6-2-1 clip the last nine games played at the Rogers Centre. The Under for the Yankees also happens to be 6-2 the last eight times they have played on Saturday this season.
You know as well as I do that Ivan Nova is long overdue for a quality start, so while Laffey may give up a few to the New York attack, it will be Nova that has plays the large role in keeping this game just a shade Under the posted total when today's nine frames are in the books.
Go Under this afternoon in the Yankees-Blue Jays contest.
2* N.Y. YANKEES-TORONTO UNDER
CRAIG DAVIS
Free play run stands at 57-38.
Free play of the day on the NY Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays with Ivan Nova trying to earn yet another road win over Aaron Laffey.
The Yanks opened this seven-game road trip with two straight ugly losses to the Tigers in Detroit and things weren't looking good. Since they, they ended up evening the series with the Tigers and started this Toronto series with an impressive 10-4 win. I look for them to parlay that win into another win over their division rival.
Don't look now, but Mark Texeira is starting to heat back up while recent acquisition Ichiro Suzuki finally appears comfortable... matching a career high with five RBIs in last night's win. Teixeira and Ichiro are both 6 for 17 over the last four games, and both have good career numbers vs. the Blue Jays.
Nova (10-6, 4.81 ERA) has clearly struggled recently, but his road record and ERA is definitely worth noting, and also the fact that he's seen the Blue Jays two times, and he's 2-0 with a 3.47 ERA in those games.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are banged up and have dropped 10 of their last 12 games and continue to battle Boston for last place in the AL East.
Aaron Laffey gets the call for the Jays and touts a 6.04 ERA over his last four starts, including his last outing in which he allowed four runs over six innings but still earned a very lucky 6-5 win over Oakland.
Laffey is 0-1 with an 11.74 ERA in three appearances against the Yankees, but hasn't pitched at home vs. the Yankees since 2008. Not a chance for a win today.
Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.
4* N.Y. YANKEES
MATT RIVERS
Your Saturday free play winner is to go with the Under in Kansas City-Baltimore.
The teams open their long four game series on Thursday with an Over, although Baltimore was only limited to two runs in that series opener.
Last night the teams combined for eight runs, and an Under.
I say it is time for the starting pitchers to limit the damage this Saturday night and put some serious goose eggs on the Camden Yards scoreboard.
Luis Mendoza will start for the Royals, while Chris Tillman takes the ball for the Orioles.
Mendoza has not been spectacular, but he has pitched in more Unders than Overs, as his last three assignments have all held low. In fact six of Mendoza's last seven starts have stayed Under, as have 10 of his 15 on the season.
Chris Tillman has also been involved in some Unders recently, as three of his last four and five of his last eight trips to the bump have played Under.
Tillman is 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA in limited action at home this season, but there is no reason for me to believe the usually pedestrian Royals offense will be able to get things cooking against him.
With last night's Under, the teams have held low in six of the last nine series meetings since last year.
Let's take a shot with a game that sees maybe eight runs total scored.
1* KANSAS CITY-BALTIMORE UNDER
DOM CHAMBERS
For today’s free play, let’s go with the Tampa Bay Rays on the run line against the Minnesota Twins.
David Price gets the start for the Rays. He is the ace of the staff and it shows as he is 14-4 overall with a 2.49 ERA. But in his last three starts, he has been even tougher, going 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA.
For the Twins, Nick Blackburn starts, he, like the Twins, are having a tough season. He is 4-7 with a 7.42 ERA.
In his last three starts, it’s not much better as he is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA.
Tampa Bay route the Twins in the series opener 12-6. It will not take that much offense to cover the run because Price will not give up that many runs.
The hitting and pitching edge goes to the Rays.
Take the Rays on the run line.
2* RAYS -1.5