WUNDERDOG
New York Yankees at Toronto
Pick: New York Yankees -150
After playing soft for a bit and having had to face Felix Hernandez, and Justin Verlander in two of three games, the Yankees have righted the ship by winning three straight. The recent acquisition of Ichiro paid dividends last night as he drove-in 5 runs, making the Bombers' lineup deeper. Toronto has quickly played themselves out of post-season hopes as they are 2-10 in their last 12 games, and the pitching which has been lacking all season was no match last night as the Yanks hung a 10-spot on them. Today they turn to Aaron Laffey who could be in trouble as he has allowed nine homers in just 55 innings, and 52% of all Yankees' runs come via the big fly. The Yankees are now 22-6 behind Nova when facing a team that allowed 5 or more runs in their previous game. The Yankees get the call.
Bryan Power
Milwaukee vs. Houston
Pick: Milwaukee
Those of you who have been following these free winners know that I have routinely been playing against Houston the last month. Really, should that come as any kind of surprise? The Astros have dropped a stunning 34 of their last 39 games and with the club off a rare victory, now is as good a time as any to go against them again.
The last time Houston won back to back games was June 26-27. Last night was their first walkoff win of the season! Though a normal team might be able to carry that momentum over into the following game, I don't see that happening with the Astros. Starter Dallas Keuchel has had a terrible year and has been even worse of late with a 8.44 ERA and 2.062 WHIP in his last three starts. The team has lost seven of his eight starts overall.
Marco Estrada is hardly having a Cy Young-type season for Milwaukee, particularly struggling on the road, but this is the perfect opponent to get back on track. He did allow just two earned runs in the team's 8-7 win over Houston in late July. Not only is Houston averaging just 2.9 rpg its last seven contests, but they are horrible 25-59 vs. righties for the season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles -122 over MIAMI
Ricky Nolasco has been a chronic underachiever for years and now he can’t get lefties out as his skills deteriorate. Nolasco’s walk rate is at a five-year high. His strikeout rate has dropped for the fourth consecutive year. His xERA is also at an all-time high of 4.59. Pitching for the current Marlins doesn't help.
Joe Blanton posted a 3.39 xERA pitching half his games in Philadelphia. The change to a more pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine can only help him. He also pitched in the shadows of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, which has allowed him to be somewhat ignored. It may surprise you to learn that Blanton has issued just 21 walks while striking out 120 in 139 innings. Blanton has a 3.39 xERA, which is more than a run lower than his actual ERA and misleading ERA of 4.52. That actual ERA is a direct result of a low strand % of 67%, a number which will show dramatic improvement pitching outside of Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park.
Blanton won his first start against the Dodgers. His second start here should go even better.