Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 14,2010

Marc Lawrence
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San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Diego Padres
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When the Padres send Mat Latos to the mound against the Giants at AT&T Park in San Francisco in Game Two of his three-game series this afternooon they will do so knowing Latos is 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA in his last 13 team starts. This has all occurred since his pitching coach moved him from one side of the rubber to the other in an effort to take advantage of his wicked slider. With Latos 1-0 in this park with a complete game shutout in his only career team start, look for the Padres to continue their winning ways behind Latos this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Diego.

Tom Freese
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Arizona starter Ian Kennedy has been on the winning side in 4 of his last 6 starts. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 their last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game and they are 6-0 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their last game. The Snakes are 6-2 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. Washington starter Jason Marquis has lost all 4 starts he has made this year and he has not gone past the fifth inning any of those starts. The Nationals are 7-24 off a win and they are 14-37 in game two of a series and they are 22-50 their last 72 Saturday games.

Charlie Scott
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Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Cleveland Browns +3
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There's no doubt that Browns Head Coach Mangini enters this season on the "Hot Seat." If Mangini wants to make the "Hot Seat" a bit cooler, a good start would be a competitve game vs his GM's Holgrem's former team. The difference in QB depth is what has me on the Browns tonight ! Cleveland will have Jake Delhomme play the first quarter, Seneca Wallace plays the second and Brett Ratliff and Colt McCoy will play the second half. Meanwhile the Packers plan on playing QB Rogers 1 or 2 series and after Rogers there's only Matt Flynn and Harrel. Flynn and Harrel don't measure up to former pre season stars Wallace and Ratliff. I feel the Browns are worth a small get some Saturday night action Play.

Lee Kostroski

Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
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Chris Narveson has had inconsistent results but he has shown enough promise to stay in the Milwaukee rotation. The Brewers are just 9-10 in Narveson starts this season and he has allowed four or more runs in eight of his last 16 starts. For the season opposing batters are hitting .275 against Narveson and he has allowed 17 home runs in just 115 innings. Colorado is batting .302 at home against left-handed pitching and for the year the Rockies are 25-18 against left-handed pitchers. Colorado is 36-19 at home this season and this should be another good opportunity for a win.
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Esmil Rogers is back in the rotation for the Rockies after a successful July in the minor leagues. His first start back was a success, leading the Rockies to a win against the Pirates on Sunday. In his big league appearances this season Rogers owns a 5.75 ERA but in Denver Rogers has a 2.25 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. For the season Rogers owns a 2.2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and the Rockies can also back him up with an outstanding bullpen, delivering far better numbers than Milwaukee has in the bullpen.
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Milwaukee has some of the worst relief pitching numbers in baseball with a 5.17 season ERA. The bullpen has a 6.03 bullpen ERA in the last ten games. Colorado is 9-3 in the last twelve meetings in this series with the Brewers winning just once in Colorado the last two years. Colorado is 78-37 in the past 115 home games for one of the best home field edges in all of baseball. The Rockies are also great performers in the second game of a series, going 25-12 this season in game 2 match-ups. The Brewers in contrast are just 14-23 in game 2 match-ups this season.

Ben Burns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Miami Dolphins -3
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The Dolphins have quietly become a pretty good team. They don't get noticed all that much in the AFC East though. That's because that's the home of Brady and the Patriots, along with the "trash-talking" Jets. That's allowed them to fly somewhat under the radar. I'm not saying that people aren't aware of the Dolphins, as expectations are quite high. However, given that this could be the best Miami team in recent memory, I still feel that they may be slightly undervalued.
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The Dolphins are well coached and they should be hungry. Head coach Tony Sparano, who dropped 55 pounds in the offseason, made the theme of training camp: "Feed the Wolf," a slogan he put on T-shirts. He was quoted as saying: "I had a meeting with the group and kind of got into them a little bit during practice about 7-9 not being good enough and how this football team shouldn't be fat. They should be starving. One of the things that we talk about is feeding the wolf with little successes every day. ... We feed the wolf when we do something good, and that's what our guys understand. Small successes will lead to bigger successes down the way."
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Perhaps more importantly, as we've seen the past couple of years, the Dolphins also have the type of team that has the potential for preseason success. That has a lot to do with the QB rotation. Chad Henne and Chad Pennington are both very familiar with the offense. Tyler Thigpen, the former Chief, is capable. If given the chance, fourth-stringer, Pat White has the type of play-making ability that could lead to big plays against backup defensive players.
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The Dolphins were 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the preseason last year. All four victories came by a minimum of three points. That included a 4-point win over the Bucs. The previous preseason, they went 3-1 SU/ATS. They'll be looking to "feed the wolf" by earning a victory here. If the line doesn't climb above the -3 mark, consider laying the points with Miami.

Info Plays

3* on Philadelphia Phillies -217
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Reasons the Phillies win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (NY METS) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 69-7 ML System hitting 90.8% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +53.8 units.
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2.) After getting shut out last night by R.A. Dickey, the Phillies come back for revenge Saturday behind Ace Roy Halladay who has been brilliant all season. Halladay is 14-8 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.032 WHIP this year. Don't be surprised if Halladay pitches a shutout himself tonight. Bet the Phillies on the road.

Freddy Wills
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Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Oakland Athletics
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This play is all about Trevor Cahill and his Cy Young like performance that nobody is talking about. Cahill is under the radar with a 12-4 record and a 2.56 ERA. Cahill is #2 in the American League in ERA and has thrown more innings than the guy ahead of him in Clay Bucholz. Cahill is 2-1 in his career vs. the Twins with a 3.15 ERA, but the Twins have yet to see his best stuff which has resulted in 0 ER over his last 3 starts in 25 IP. Oakland is 21-7 in his last 28 starts while the Twins throw a young gun out there in Brian Duensing who I like a lot but not in this spot because he's a guy transferring from the bullpen coming off a 104 pitch outing his first since 2009 season. I believe he may run into some troubles here and the Oakland and Cahill will take advantage.

Jim Feist
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
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A big difference offensively with these teams, Arizona ranking 5th in the NL in runs scored, the Nationals 14th. Washington is also the worst defensive team in the NL. Arizona starter Ian Kennedy has fine numbers, allowing fewer hits than innings pitched, a 117-54 K to walk ratio in 139 innings. Washington starter Jason Marquis has been awful, with an 0-4 record and an ERA over 15. He made his first start in months 5 days ago.....and gave up 5 runs in 4 innings. Play the Diamondbacks.

EZWINNERS
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Chicago White Sox -145
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The White Sox newest starting pitcher Edwin Jackson faces off against one of his former teams. Jackson has allowed only two earned runs in two starts with the White Sox and has struck out thirteen batters in thirteen innings pitched. Chicago pitching coach Don Cooper has helped Jackson get over some of the wildness that has plagued him over his career and it looks like Jackson will be a solid contributor to the White Sox run at a playoff spot. The Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello has had a very disappointing season. After winning 14 games in his rookie season last year, Porcello has only shown a few flashes of the pitcher that posted a 3.96 ERA a year ago. This season Porcello is 5-10 with an ERA of 5.74 and in his last three starts his ERA is 6.62. Porcello has not had any success against the White Sox in the past either as he has an 0-4 career record against Chicago with an ERA of 10.80. Three of those losses came this season as Porcello has allowed the Sox to score nineteen in less than fifteen innings this season. I don't expect Porcello to have any better success this time around and the Tigers most likely won't provide Porcello with much run support against Jackson. Jackson is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA in six appearances (four starts) in his career against his former team and I look for him to pitch well again in this game. The Tigers are only 2-8 in their last ten games played in Chicago and Detroit is only 3-13 in Porcello's last sixteen road starts. Play on Chicago.

Black Widow
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1* on Toronto Blue Jays +120
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Getting the Toronto Blue Jays as an underdog in this match-up is an absolute steal Saturday. That's because Brett Cecil takes the mound, and he has been one of the most underrated starters in the league all year long. Cecil is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA this year, including 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. Angels starter Ervin Santana has posted a 4.50 ERA in 12 home starts this year, and a 9.00 ERA and 2.062 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Cecil did face the Angels earlier this season, pitching 7.2 shutout innings to get the win in a 6-0 victory at Los Angeles. Santana owns a 4.61 ERA in 8 career starts against Toronto. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in Cecil's last 6 starts vs. American League West. The Blue Jays are 10-3 in Cecil's last 13 road starts. The Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Blue Jays on the Money Line.

Jack Jones

Marlins vs. Reds
Pick Over 9.5
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I like the bats to come out tonight in hitter-friendly Cincinnati in a battle between two struggling starting pitchers. Sean West hast posted a 7.20 ERA on the season to this point, while Mike Leake is 0-3 with a 9.60 ERA over his last 3 starts. During that time, Leake has allowed 16 earned runs and 28 base runners in 15 innings pitched. West has only faced the Reds once in his career back in 2009, allowing 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings.
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The OVER is 7-1 in the Marlins last 8 games overall, while the OVER is 4-1 in the Reds last 5 games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The OVER is 13-3 in Marlins last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. The OVER is 6-1 in Reds last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The OVER is 7-1 in Leake's last 8 starts overall. The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series. Take the OVER 9.5 runs Saturday.

BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
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San Diego over San Francisco
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Although the Giants are a super 36-21 on their home turf, prefer the Padres in this playoff type battle. San Diego has won 5 straight in San Francisco, while hitting at a 7-1 clip overall in the series. Further, the Padres are 6-1 with Matt Latos in a road set and a huge 35-16 in game #2 of a series.

SPORTS WAGERS
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San Diego –1.03 over SAN FRANCISCO
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The Padres are not choking under pressure of a pennant drive and in fact, they’re thriving. They’ve now won five straight and came in here last night and won the opener 3-2. The Padres have now won eight of nine over the Giants and have outscored them 30-18 while holding them to two runs or fewer in each victory. Things now get tougher for the Giants when they face Mat Latos. It's not often that a 21-year-old pitching prospect exceeds expectations in his first full season in the majors but Latos has done exactly that, becoming the ace of the Padres in the process. In 130 IP, Latos is 12-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.99 WHIP and he’s 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three starts against San Francisco. Latos has allowed 11 hits in 22 frames against the Giants this year for a BAA of .149. In those 22 frames he walked two and struck out 13. The Giants will likely use newly acquired Jose Gullien today and he’s batting .151 since the all-star break and adds nothing except bitterness from whomever he’s taking AB’s away from. Madison Bumgarner is losing steam and he’s losing steam quickly. Upon his call-up in June, Bumgarner had a four-game winning streak in which he posted a 1.35 ERA but he’s no longer a stranger. Since then, Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA and that’s with a very high strand rate of 78%. Long-term, his future continues to look incredibly bright. For the remainder of this season, be prepared for the risks that come with any young hurler (he’s 20 years old), and know that workload concerns could enter the picture soon -- he threw 141 IP in 2008 and 2009, and is at 134 IP already this season between the minors and majors and those major league innings are a lot more difficult. Psychologically, give a big edge to the Padres. The Giants have to be thinking in the back of their minds that they can’t beat this team and at least for today they’re probably right. Play: San Diego –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

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Los Angeles +1.20 over ATLANTA
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The most remarkable story of 2010 just might be the Braves 40-15 record at home. This is nowhere near a 40-15 club. They’re offensively challenged and things are getting worse. In fact, in 12 August games the Braves are batting .228. Other than Chipper Jones, who is out, no Brave is batting over .286 this month and Matt Diaz, Troy Glaus, Jason Heyward and Rick Ankiel are all batting under .220. Meanwhile, Ronnie Belliard, Andre Ethier, Ryan Theriot and Jamey Carroll are all batting .300 or better. Matt Kemp (.226) is the only Dodger regular batting less than .267 this month and he’s warming up. Derek Lowe is coming off a start in which he was bothered by cramps in his hamstring and right arm and should not be trusted because if his slider isn’t sharp he’s useless. Lowe is having another good year but his chances of an implosion are so much stronger than Ted Lilly’s, especially when you consider the current form of these two offenses. The Dodgers are going through a very rough stretch and its skid really defies logic. They’re getting very good starting pitching and they’re hitting the ball, yet they’re losing games. Blame an erratic pen for that. Ted Lilly has been a great addition but that should come as no surprise. Lilly has had success everywhere he’s been and since joining L.A. he’s allowed four runs and seven hits in 13 innings. Overall, Lilly has a 2.18 ERA in his last five starts and this could be his easiest assignment of them all. Play: Los Angeles +1.20 (Risking 2 units).

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Toronto +1.22 over ANAHEIM
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The Angels a –1.30 favorite here is simply incorrect. Against southpaws the Angels see BB’s and they’re facing one here with nasty stuff. Brett Cecil has allowed one ER in four of his last six starts and that includes games against the Twins and Yankees in which he four-hit them both. Over that six-game stretch he has a 2.06 ERA and a BAA of .192. To make matters worse for the Angels, they’ve not seen this guy much at all and in fact, current Angels have just 25 AB’s against Cecil and combined they have two hits, both by Matsui. Everyone else is batting .000. The Jays remain hot with a 13-6 record over its last 19 games. They’re better vs right-handers (52-39) and will face one here in Earvin Santana. Santana is tough but he could also be a durability risk given the elbow and forearm problems that have plagued him. His skills also may be reflecting that risk. His BPV** (see bottom of this page for explanation of BPV) by month, starting in May: 94, 57, 42 and he’s been absolutely crushed in two of his last three starts. Just like last night, the Angels have no advantage here and the Jays chances of winning are actually better than the Angels chances. Play: Toronto +1.22 (Risking 2 units).

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Baltimore +1.87 over TAMPA BAY Pinnacle
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The Orioles remain very warm and after beating the Rays 5-0 last night they’re now 9-2 since Buck Showalter took over. Incredible. The O’s are having fun for the first time all season and will send out the very underrated Brian Matusz. Matusz was a top prospect and got his first major-league experience last season in which he displayed very good control. That's an awfully good place to start. This season he’s had his bumps for sure but when the team you pitch for loses almost every game, it’s so tough to build any confidence. Since the arrival of Showalter everyone is feeling better. Matusz now has two quality starts in a row, allowing two runs in 12 innings combined over that span. He’s had a rock solid 63 BPV the first time through a lineup, and an electric 121 BPV the second time through. It's the third time a lineup sees him that has given him fits but he’ll learn to make adjustments. Weigh his electric skill flashes and a big tag more heavily than his periodic struggles. This kid can pitch and he’ll face a Rays team that is last in the majors this month with a combined .206 BA. The Rays will also send its worst starter to the mound in Andy Sonnastine, who is filling in until Jeff Niemann and/or Wade Davis returns. Sonnastine went 6-9 last season with a 6.77 ERA. He’s a soft-tosser with very little margin for error. He’s pitched solely out of relief this year and while his numbers are decent, starting is a whole different animal. He’s never had success as a starter and he’s also very prone to the long ball, as his nine jacks in 54 IP this year will attest to. In his career in 73 games as a starter, Sonnastine has an ERA of 5.45 and offers up absolutely nothing as a 2-1 favorite. Yeah, the Rays can win here but what we have is a sweet tag on the resurgent O’s with the better pitcher against a team that is hitting nothing these days. Big overlay. Play: Baltimore +1.87 (Risking 2 units).

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -148
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The Tigers are 7-23 in their last 30 games overall, and I'll fade them with Porcello on the bump tonight. The Tigers are 1-6 in his last 7 starts and 3-13 in his last 16 road starts. He is also 0-4 lifetime with an ERA of 10.81 against Chicago. The White Sox are 22-4 in their last 26 home games. Jackson has won both starts against his former team this season, improving to 2-0 lifetime (3-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.70 against Detroit. Take the Sox.