Cajun Sports
Lions vs. Tigercats
Play: Under 51.5
The BC Lions travel to face the Hamilton Tigercats on Saturday night. British Columbia Lions come into Week Eight averaging about twenty-four points per game while their defense is allowing just over twenty-six points per game. Their opponents the Hamilton Tigercats have been dominate at home winning their last two games by a combined score of 72 to 26. Ti-cats QB Zach Collaros has thrown for 1,724 yards with ten touchdowns to six interceptions so far this season. The Tigercats are averaging almost thirty-two points per game this season which leads the league and their defense is giving up just nineteen points per game which is second in the league. A check of our powerful CFL database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to play UNDER on CFL home teams who average at least twenty-nine points per game with a current game total of at least fifty-one points. This system has a record of 48-86-1 Under including 5-14 Under the last nineteen, 1-7 Under the last eight and 0-4 Under the last four qualifying contests. We note the Lions have posted a 2-8 Under mark their last ten road games. The Ti-cats are 7-19 Under their last twenty-six games at home. This series has seen the last four of five games played in Hamilton tip the scales on the low side. We will play this one to fall short of the posted total on Saturday night.
Art Aronson
Rays at Rangers
Play: Under
The visitors hand the ball to ace Chris Archer (10-8, 2.62 ERA) who went six innings in a no-decision vs. the Mets on Sunday, giving up three runs off four hits, while also striking out ten. Archer has now thrown at least six frames in eight straight starts and in 12 of his last 13 and has also produced double-figure K's in two of his last three outings. Also note that Archer has been particularly dominant on the road this year by going 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA. Colby Lewis (12-5, 4.61 ERA) gets the nod for the home side, he's coming off a tough loss, throwing a complete game vs. the Mariners, ultimately giving up three earned runs off five hits with one walk and six K's; Lewis has now tossed five quality starts out of his last six outings (and note that Lewis is 5-1 in front of the home town crowd this season). Recent performance is always a good indicator when trying to judge starting pitching and with these two hurlers coming in on top form, there's no doubt that the UNDER becomes a very legitimate investment opportunity.
Brady Kannon
Arizona -2.5
The NFL Preseason for me, is really more about handicapping the coaches than it is the teams. Yes, one needs to know what kind of depth a team has and such as it is typically the back ups who are seeing most of the time - but it is the coaches who will dictate what they are going to do with that depth, or lack thereof, and if they really care to win the game or if they are using it as more of a glorified practice. Andy Reid, since joining The Chiefs, is apparently a guy who likes to use these games more as practice than getting W's as he is just 2-and-6 ATS in the preseason with KC. And this approach spills over into his days with Philly too as he was just 1-6-and-1 ATS in preseason openers on the road. Arizona's Bruce Arians, meanwhile, seems to have a different idea about the exhibition season as he is a perfect 2-and-0 SUATS in preseason openers and 5-2-and-1 ATS overall. Many folks are high on The Cards this season and while I don't know if that will pan out come January, I think this is a good spot to get off and running with them as I expect they will want to come out of the gate, at home, strong.
Stephen Nover
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Seattle Mariners -133
Felix Hernandez versus Wade Miley is a complete mismatch.
The Mariners have won 68 percent of Hernandez's last 50 starts. King Felix is having another strong year this season tied for the lead in the American League in wins while ranking eighth in ERA and strikeouts.
The Red Sox could be minus Hanley Ramirez and Rusney Castillo, both of whom have foot injuries.
Boston starter Wade Miley has a 5.05 ERA in 10 starts at Fenway Park. Boston is 0-6 in Miley's last six outings.
The Red Sox were fired up on Friday after finding out manager John Farrell is going to miss the rest of the season in order to undergo cancer treatment. They destroyed the Mariners, 15-1. That was a tribute game to Farrell.
The Red Sox had been playing the string out so I see a letdown occurring today. Seattle had been playing well despite Friday's defeat.
The Mariners are 7-4 in their last 11 games and have won the last three series they have played.
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -142
Justin Verlander has pitched a better brand of baseball of late, but his team simply finds ways to lose. Detroit has won just one of the right-hander's last 10 starts. And even if Verlander turns in a decent performance, we get a couple more shots with Houston's strong staff and Detroit's weak bullpen. Collin McHugh will toe the starting rubber for the home team in this one. McHugh has posted a 3.04 ERA & 1.28 WHIP in his last nine starts, while allowing just two home runs in 59 1/3 IP. McHugh has held opponents to two runs or less in four of his last five home outings. Houston enters on a 15-2 run when McHugh toes the home rubber and they're on a 21-5 run at home against right-handed opposing starters.
Marc Lawrence
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -109
Edges - Nets: Jon Niese 5-2 with 2.58 ERA last seven overall team starts, and 5-2 career team starts in this series. Pirates: Charlie Morton 1-5 career team starts versus the Mets, including 0-3 here; and 4-8 away career team starts during the month of August. With Morton’s 5.92 away ERA more than 2.5 RPG higher than his 3.25 home ERA this season, we recommend a 1* play on the Mets.
Jim Feist
Oakland vs. Baltimore
Play: Over 8½
Oakland has plenty of offensive punch and a good arm going in Chris Bassitt. However, Bassitt has a 1.91 ERA at home, 3.78 away and the Over is 3-1-1 when the Orioles are at home against a right-handed starter. Baltimore ranks 9th in baseball in runs scored, 7th in slugging. Miguel Gonzalez (4.45 ERA) has been shaky all season, losing three in a row by scores of 5-4, 5-0 and 9-8. The Over is 7-1 in Gonzalez's last 8 starts on grass. Gonzalez struggled once again, giving up four earned runs in 4.2 innings his last start. He struck out six while giving up seven hits (two home runs) and two walks. He has a 4.61 ERA at home and a 5.06 ERA against Oakland this season and the over is 7-2 in Gonzalez's last 9 starts overall. When these teams meet the over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Rob Vinciletti
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies +107
The Rockies are 5-1 at home off a home loss if they scored 5 or more runs. The Padres are 1-9 as a road favorite off a road win. This game also fits a nice dog system that date to 2004. Colorado averages over 5 run per game here. They have J. Gray going and he was solid in his last start going 6 innings allowing just 1 run against the Mets. He will oppose Cashner who has a pedestrian like 4.60 road Era. Look for Colorado to bounce back as a small dog.
Big Al
Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
After catching fire and posting one of the best records in baseball since the All-Star break, the Phillies have cooled down and are playing more like, well, the Phillies now. A trip to Arizona turned out to be a disaster as the Phils were badly beaten by the D-Backs. Now they're in Milwaukee to face the Brewers and tonight it's a relative youngster against a journeyman veteran as RH Jimmy Nelson takes the hill for this 24th start for the Crew while journeyman veteran RH Jerome Williams goes for the 19th time. Nelson is really coming into his own and would seem to have a bright future ahead of him as he is 9-9 with a 3.65 ERA. But even more impressive is the fact that he's 3-0 in his last five starts with an ERA around two runs (seven ER in 34 innings pitched). Meanwhile, this could be Williams' last hurrah as a full-time starter in the Majors as the 33-year-old is 4-8 with 5.73 ERA and clearly he won't be in the Phils rotation plans for next season. Heading into this evening's game, the Crew has won five straight, as well as 11 of the last 15.
DAVE COKIN
YANKEES VS BLUE JAYS
PLAY: BLUE JAYS -120
Hey, the Blue Jays are human after all. They coughed a late lead against the Yankees on Friday night and in the process fell back to second place in what is now a sizzling divisional race. I like Toronto to get right back on track today.
Marco Estrada hasn’t gotten much attention for the Jays. That kind of figures as this team is all about putting up big offensive numbers and the pitchers are very much a secondary attraction. But Estrada has been a very pleasant surprise for Toronto this season, and the key to his success has been a dramatically reduced home run rate. That has long been the big issue for Estrada, but he’s proven that he can be an asset by keeping this ball in the park this year.
Meanwhile, it’s Masahiro Tanaka who is suffering from an alarming case of gopher ball fever. Tanaka is serving them up at an insane rate lately. 16 homers in the last 11 starts for Tanaka, and 14 in the last nine alone. That is simply not good news at all against a team with this much thunder.
The Blue Jays were quieted down on Friday night, but I doubt that this can be looked at as little more than a blip. This Toronto lineup is downright frightening. Match them up against a guy who is having trouble avoiding gopher balls and the recipe for another Toronto outburst is more than a reasonable projection.
That was a desperately needed win for the Yankees on Friday night and it would be huge if they could grab another victory here and clinch a series win in the process. But with Tanaka’s currently shaky form, especially when it comes to the taters, I have to favor the home team here. The price is clearly not unreasonable with the Jays currently just a 6/5 chalk piece. I’d look to lay that number with Toronto.
Mr Vegas
Nationals vs Giants
Play: Over
A pair of strong offenses meet in San Francisco. Washington has Gio Gonzalez going, who is strong at home but has a 4.23 ERA walking 27 in 68 road winnings where opponents hit .289 off him. The Over is 5-2-1 in Gonzalez's last 8 road starts. San Francisco is 10th in baseball in runs scored but stuck with 33-year old Jake Peavy (2-5). The over is 6-1-1 in Peavy's last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
Jeff Saad
Pittsburgh vs New York
Play: New York
Fourth straight road game for the Pirates, all against red-hot teams. The Pirates go with lefty J.A. Happ (4-7, 4.78 ERA), who has below average stuff. The Pirates are 10-25 in their last 35 games as a road underdog. The New York Mets improved to 42-18 in Queens this season by recording its 11th win in 13 contests overall with a convincing 12-3 triumph over Colorado on Thursday. The Mets collected 15 extra-base hits and outscored the Rockies by a 23-5 margin during the four-game sweep. The Mets are 52-12 as a home favorite,40-15 at home vs. a team with a losing road record.
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Saturday is a preseason Under in the Tampa Bay-Minnesota meeting.
Already the second game in less than a week for the Vikings who were 14-3 winners last Sunday night in the Hall of Fame Game over explosive Pittsburgh.
The bottom line is second year coach Mike Zimmer's defensive philosophy has really taken a hold for the Norsemen, as the Vikings defense has been steadily improving under Zimmer's helm.
Minny won all of the preseason games last year, and they are off to a 1-0 start this season. Tonight they will relish the chance at stopping #1 draft pick Jameis Winston who will see his first real action in the NFL - even if only for one quarter.
Adrian Peterson will once again be watching from the sidelines, so take that offensive weapon off the field.
Tampa coach Lovie Smith is also a defensive-minded head coach, so look for the defenses to be the dominant units on the gridiron tonight.
Bucs-Vikes Under the total.
3* TAMPA BAY-MINNESOTA UNDER
World Wide Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans -2.5
The San Francisco 49ers just aren't in a good place right now as they are reeling on and off the field. The Texans should have the edge in this game. One big advantage the Texans have is at the QB position. Ryan Mallet and Brian Hoyer are competing for the starting quarterback position for the Texans which will lead to both of them getting a lot of playing time. The 49ers are on a 0-5-1 ATS slide in their last 6 games while the Texans are 6-2 ATS in their 8 home preseason games.