Jimmy Boyd
Oakland A's +126
Oakland is showing some solid value here as an underdog against the Orioles. The A's have dropped 4 straight, but will have a big advantage here on the mound with Chris Bassitt going up against Miguel Gonzalez.
Bassit owns a 2.27 ERA and 0.985 WHIP over 7 starts and has been even better than that of late, posting a 1.74 ERA and 0.919 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Gonzalez on the other hand has a 4.45 ERA and 1.324 WHIP over 21 starts and has really struggled of late with a 8.10 ERA and 2.101 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Gonzalez also has had his problems with Oakland, posting a 5.91 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in 2 career starts against the A's.
A's are 11-4 in their last 15 when their opponent allows 5 or more runs in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 games on Saturday. Baltimore is 1-5 in their last 6 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win and 0-4 in Gonzalez's L4 starts vs the AL East.
Bob Balfe
49ers +3
When it comes to betting preseason you really can be prepared and have all the stars align only to get beat by the most random of events in the final quarter. Just remember that these games are exhibitions and do not mean anything.
The Texans are geared up with their starters to make a push this year, but this team has no depth at all and can’t afford injuries this year. Foster is already a big blow for this team and without him I don’t think they are a playoff team. For tonight’s game you can’t overlook this one simple fact. There is no experience on either side of the line. No player has ever started a game in the trenches on this 2nd unit. The Offensive and Defensive Lines are not NFL ready. It is hard to think of a team that lost as much talent as the 49ers did in just one off season, but this team has quality players with a new coach and have a massive chip on their shoulder. I like the 49ers backups a lot more in this game. Take San Francisco.
Indians +105
The Indians have been knocking the cover off the baseball and should do so again with Tyler Duffey on the mound this evening. Duffey was pitched in 2 innings this season and has given up 2 homeruns and 6 total earned runs. This Twins team had a great first half, but they are slowly fading away and could dip below .500 with a loss. Take Cleveland.
River City Sharps
Diamondbacks TT Over 4 (-115) We think the D’backs get to Foltynewicz early and after tonight. He is 4-1 in his seven home starts, but has really had trouble with control and posted a 5.58 ERA in those starts, as well as opponents posting a .364 overall OB%
Chicago Cubs (-120) Cubs are red hot and we get Arrieta on the hill tonight at a more than reasonable price. Also like the fact that he has the majors third best ERA at 1.23 since June 21st. Expect another lower scoring game and Arrieta outduels Quintana again
Indians – TT Over 4 (-120) Minny’s bullpen has been used up and spit out, now we get the Tribe up against Duffey, who was pounded in his last start vs. the Jays. Really like this play tonight
New York Mets (-115) We know that the Bucs have owned the Mets, but gonna back Niese and the home team here tonight. More of a play against Morton, who has really struggled to get off to good starts. In addition, he is one of the few Pirate arms that has struggled vs. the Mets, posting a 0-3, 5.01 ERA over his last four starts
Washington Nationals (-108) Gio Gonzalez has been really solid for these Nationals lately, posting a 5-0, 1.48 ERA over his last eight starts. He has also handled these Giants, going 2-0, 1.42 ERA in his last five starts vs. San Francisco.
Vegas Butcher
New York Yankees (1st 5 Innings only) +105
Another rematch from the last start for both pitchers. In that game Tanaka allowed 2 HR’s and 2 runs in 6 innings of work, while Estrada allowed none. But advanced stats tell us a different story. Estrada has a 4.2 SIERA and 4.5 xFIP in the game, while Tanaka was much better at 2.8 SIERA and 2.9 xFIP. That’s a pretty big difference. Even though from my perspective Tanaka was an overall ‘better’ pitcher in that outing, the Bookmakers are keeping the odds the same, adjusting for home-field advantage only. I feel there’s some value (about 10 cents) on the odds in this one and will back NY today once again. Their key relievers in the BP have been pitching a decent amount lately (3 out of the last 4 days for both Betances and Miller) and Miller looked pretty shaky last night, therefore I’ll back this one for 1st 5 innings only.
Los Angeles Angeles +152
Ignoring HR-rates, let’s compare some advanced stats for the starters in this one:
Shoemaker: 22% K-rate; 6% BB-rate; 0.294 BABIP; 3.9 xFIP / 3.7 SIERA
J. Cueto: 23% K-rate; 6%-BB-rate; 0.237 BABIP; 3.5 xFIP / 3.5 SIERA
As you can see the K-rates, BB-rates, SIERA’s and xFIP’s are all very similar. Of course there’s a reason why Shoemaker sports a 4.3 FIP (and 4.3 ERA) while Cueto’s is at 3.0 (2.5 ERA), as their HR-rates are vastly different – 1.5 HR/9 for Shoemaker and 0.7 for Cueto. A couple things though. Royals aren’t a prolific HR-hitting team, tied for 4th worst in the league with 91. In addition, Shoemaker has been terrific lately, sporting a 3.2/3.1 FIP/xFIP mark in the 2nd half of the year (last 24 innings) with a K-rate of 32%. He is coming off a really poor outing where he allowed 3 HR’s and 7 runs, but I expect a bounce-back here. Remember, this is a pitcher that threw 19 innings while allowing 0 runs with 27 K’s and 6 BB’s before the rough outing at Chicago. Unlike Shoemaker, Cueto is coming off a ‘dynamite’ game where he went 9 innings, allowed 0 runs, and struck out 8. He threw 116 pitches in that one and I doubt he’ll have a repeat of that effort tonight. Last time Cueto went 9 innings, he followed up that outing with a 5-inning start allowing 5 runs, 7 hits, and only striking out 2. And that was against Miami, the worst offense in the league. Angels rank 8th overall, though they have struggled lately ranking 24th in the last 30-days. Regardless of what happens today, my model has this game at -136 Royals, and there’s solid value on the road team in this one.
Sleepyj
Toronto -1.5 +188
Marco Estrada just faced this Yanks lineup in his last start..It went very well as he ony gave up 3 hits in 6 full innings..he should have no problem coming right back at this Yankee lineup today..Yankees have been a bit sluggish as of late, but they pulled out the first game of the series yesterday...Yanks bats have been slow and facing a RHP today today in Estrada i expect those bats to be rather cold again today...Estrada hasn;t given up more then 2ER in 9 of his last 10 starts..That's very good and with the output the Bluejays can give ont he offensive end this looks to be a good spot for the Jays RL today...Jays often struggle to give Estrada run support, but they will want to jump all over Tanaka today...Tanaka has been very hittable as he has allowed 3ER or more in 7 out of his last 10..No way can he just shutdown this Jays lineup..Walks can be an issue for Tanaka and Hr's as weel.. He just did battle against the Jays in his last game..He lost that game, but looked pretty good...I don't believe he will today..I think the Jays will jump all over him the 2nd time around...Big return if the Jays get it done by 2 runs here..I think they put up a a few extra runs..Yanks struggle..Jays win it 6-2.
John Fisher
Nationals at Giants
Play: Nationals
Nationals are finding out the hard way how to get beat at Candlestick park. If Giants the Nationals and I will get swept this series. I picked Nationals to sweep this series but it doesn't look so good for the, to even win a game. Peavy has turned it around as he seems to have found his fastball again. Nationals win this game.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: N.Y. Yankees (+120) at TORONTO
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - American League East battle continues north of the border, where the Yankees just snapped the Blue Jays' 11-game win streak, and will now look to carry the momentum over from last night's win. The smart intangible is to list the pitchers in this game, as I personally like Masahiro Tanaka to get it done over Marco Estrada.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is revenge. Revenge in a sense that Tanaka lost to the Blue Jays his last time out, after he allowed a pair of solo homers in a 2-0 defeat at Yankee Stadium. It was Tanaka's second consecutive quality start and his seventh straight outing of six innings or more. Now he'll want to get that back, especially since Estrada opposed him in that game.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - Toronto's right-hander catches the Yankees for the second time in as many starts, after limiting them no runs over 6-1/3 innings his last time out. He has a career 4.50 ERA in three career games against New York, and now he'll be taking on an angry Yankees lineup.
2* N.Y. YANKEES
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Toronto Blue Jays on the money line over the NY Yankees. Both Marco Estrada and Masahiro Tanaka must start or this play is null and void.
It's amazing how one swing of the bat can change things in a hurry... but that's exactly what happened last night for the Yankees.
After sticking it up their tail pipe for 7+ innings, David Price got into a bit of a jam and was pulled with a 3-1 lead and runners at 2 & 3. Carlos Beltran hit a pinch-hit three-run homer and the Yankees somehow found a way to win that game, 4-3... which put them back in first place in the AL East --- at least for now.
David Price didn't do anything wrong... he just ran out of gas. Well, that shouldn't be a problem today for a guy who barely throws 90. Marco Estrada, who stymied the Yankees just a week ago, get his second crack at the Yankees in a week and there's no reason to believe he won't be just as effective.
For some reason, the New York bats went cold right about that time and they simply couldn't figure Estrada out. But then again, he's been doing that to a lot of hitters --- not just New York.
Take the Blue Jays on the money line as your free play of the day.
2* TORONTO
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Oakland Athletics in American League play. Do not bother listing pitchers in this game, as I think the O's will simply take full advantage of a slumping A's team that has lost four straight.
Baltimore returned from a rough road trip after losing two straight, but won last night's lid-lifter to get back on track. Meanwhile, Oakland is in town on a four-game slide after losing up in Toronto, and then last night. Logistics make this an easy choice for me, as the O's will be playing much better than the boys from Oaktown.
The Athletics have a putrid offense, one that is doing them no good whatsoever, as they're 24-32 on the road, where they're htiting a paltry .247. They've also scored just 226 runs when ordering room service, and since they've gotten any time off for this series, I highly doubt they can establish a groove after last night's loss.
Baltimore comes from the better division, and though it is in third place in the American League East, it is only 1.5 games out of the Wild Card race. This team can still make a late-season charge and do some damage if it can strong together some wins. This might be the right series to do so, as they're 33-20 at home.
2* BALTIMORE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Under in the Cubs-White Sox meeting on the South Side tonight.
Last night the teams treated us to a 6-5 final, and an Over, but with Jake Arrieta and Jose Quintana taking the hill, I think tonight's meeting will see far less runs being scored.
While Jose Quintana has been OK for the Pale Hose - 1-0 with a 3.79 ERA his last 3 starts - Jake Arrieta has been outstanding for the Cubs, as he sports a 1.23 ERA since June 21st, and has yielded 2 runs or fewer in 9 of his last 10 starts.
Arrieta outpitched Quintana last month as Arrieta fanned 9 while allowing just 2 hits in a Cubs 3-1 win over their city rivals.
The Under is 5-0-1 the last 6 times Arrieta has started, and is 13-5-1 overall when he has taken the ball to the hill on the season.
This one has the makings of a combined 5 or 6 runs total.
Play the Cubs and the White Sox Under the total on Saturday.
2* CUBS-WHITE SOX UNDER
SPORTS WAGERS
B.C. Lions +8½ over HAMILTON
Do we think the Lions are good? No f**king way. Do we think they can compete with the Tigercats? No f**king way. However, what we think matters not because you cannot predict all the stuff that takes place over the course of a football game, which includes dumb penalties or smart ones, turnovers, phantom flags or dropped passes. In fact, if you watched the Lions beat the Eskies last week, you may still be wondering how that occurred. B.C. looked awful, their offense was ridiculously weak and Travis Lulay was missing his targets by 10 yards. For anyone watching that game or any game for that matter by B.C. this year, they appear to be almost un-bettable. The entire market has seen what we’ve seen this year and the result of that is an inflated price on the Lions, which is quite frankly the only thing we really care about.
Hamilton’s stock is soaring and you can double that sentiment when they play at home. The ‘Cats have yet to lose in two season since Tim Horton’s Field opened. Not only have they not lost here but Hamilton’s two wins this year have been by scores of 34-18 over Toronto and last week’s 38-8 win over the Bombers. That’s a combined 72-26 over the past two weeks, which just adds to the inflated price you’ll be paying on Hamilton here. The scores on the field were in no way indicative of how poorly Hamilton has played. Against the Argos, Hamilton was outgained by 143 yards. The Argos outgained them to the tune of 440-297 but the ‘Cats had every bounce go their way, including stopping the Argos three times on third and one. That won’t happen again in a CFL game for another 50 years. Last week against Winnipeg, Hamilton scored 28 of its 38 points on two pick 6’s, a blocked punt and an onside kick that led directly to their second TD. Had it not been for a late pick-6 in the second half, the ‘Cats would have been shutout in the second half. Last week, Winnipeg took the opening kickoff and were marching downfield at will before a pick-6 changed everything. 5 minutes later and it was 21-0. Overall, Winnipeg held an edge in time of possession and they were outgained by a mere nine yards and that’s with Drew Willy getting injured and sitting almost the entire 4th quarter. Now the ‘Cats are so overpriced because of their last two “dominant” wins on the scoreboard. On the playing field, they were anything but dominating. In six games thus far, Hamilton has dominated once. A little complacency now sits in and with Edmonton on deck, we can certainly envision the Tigercats being flat here. We’re calling the upset in this one folks but those 8½-points are about as sweet as it gets and we’re all over it.
CALGARY -8½ over Ottawa
We leave the X’s and O’s to the experts. Regular readers of this section know it’s something we rarely write about because it’s so irrelevant when handicapping football. We care more about the angles that play a much bigger role in the outcome than the X’s and O’s. Besides that, the X’s and O’s mean little because of the great neutralizer—the point-spread. Indeed 8½ points appears to be a big number but we’re happy to lay it because this is a huge letdown spot for the Redblacks.
Calgary has had two weeks to prepare for this one. The Stamps are 0-6 against the spread and have looked progressively worse almost every week. Anyone that has bet on Calgary this year has ripped up their ticket so that market cannot be very anxious to play them again. We are because this wager is all about fading the Redblacks in an extremely unfavorable situation.
That situation takes us back to Ottawa’s win last week at home against Montreal. If you watched that game then you’re aware of how close it was throughout with an intensity level that has not been seen in Ottawa for years. More than that was the atmosphere in Ottawa’s TD Place Stadium. It was a packed house filled to the rafters. The fans were on their feet the entire game and it sounded more like a sold out playoff game at Yankees Stadium than a regular season CFL game. The Ottawa players fed off of it for 60 minutes. They celebrated every knocked down pass, every defensive stop, every first down and every tackle like it was life or death. The place was electric and to top it off, the Redblacks drove for a winning score in the final minute to send the crowd into a frenzy. We cannot overstate the emotional toll and jubilation of that win over Montreal. It was even sweeter because the Als are the Redblacks biggest rival. Those two cities go at it for NHL games and it carries over into the summer now. That victory was like winning the Grey Cup game for Ottawa and now they’ll travel west to play a team that has something to prove. Emotionally and physically, the Redblacks are ill-prepared to deal with this situation and frankly, we’d be shocked if they kept this one anywhere near a two TD loss. Invest.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +110 over TORONTO
The Jays were outhit yesterday 13-6. Toronto scored three times in one inning and didn’t score again. In fact, they’ve scored in one inning and none the rest of the game in three of its past five games. Over the past 10 games, the Jays are batting .238, which ranks 20th in MLB. They faced some rather weak starters too over that span but they don’t have that luxury today. The Yanks prized foreign import, Masahiro Tanaka has bucked injury concerns to play a critical role in the teams' success. Tanaka has been great once again, save one unfortunate luck factor. Pitching with a partially-torn UCL hasn't turned him into a different pitcher, as his strikeouts, swing and miss rate and first-pitch strike rate are all in line with last season's terrific debut. However, this marks the second straight year of Tanaka displaying a propensity for giving up long balls. Pitching in Yankee Stadium (+29% LHB HR) has not helped matters. Combine gopheritis with a groundball tilt and it's not much of a surprise that hit% has turned against him. There's room for ERA improvement down the stretch. Tanaka has somehow managed to maintain both last year's skills and velocity in spite of his elbow tear. He now has 11 pure quality starts in 16 tries, not to mention an elite 14% line-drive rate over his past three starts.
In theory, Marco Estrada and HR-friendly ballparks shouldn't mix so color us surprised to see baseball's resident king of gopheritis not only maintain a rotation spot in all year for the Jays but thrive to the tune of a 3.21 ERA. It’s a good story but Estrada is living on borrowed time. He hasn't suddenly stop allowing fly-balls but rather hr/f% is depressed. All those fly-ball outs have kept his hit% down, accounting for the discrepancy in ERA/xERA. Estrada’s strikeout rate is in a three-year decline, despite a steady and above-average swing and miss rate. Estrada seems to have trouble sealing the deal on hitters once he gets ahead. His control hasn't budged much from last season, but first pitch strike % has fallen a tick. This could lead to some control erosion going forward. While Estrada might be a nice source of win potential on a contending Blue Jays team, the secret to his success so far is due more to errant gusts of wind (especially away from the sometimes-domed Roger's Centre (3.91 ERA) than actual skill gains, as his underlying stats make that abuntantly clear. What's more, his curious strikeout rate drop is hard to explain, as it seems he's using his exceptional change-up (23% swing and miss per PITCHf/x) early in counts which bolsters his whiff-rate, but has been less successful in finishing batters off. Correction looms for Estrada, making him a dicey play over the next two months. The Yanks lineup is also a very tough one, as now Ellsbury, Gardner and the bottom of the order (Gregorious, Drew) are all heating up. That correction on Estrada's ERA likely starts here.
Cleveland +105 over MINNESOTA
Josh Tomlin underwent surgery (right shoulder) after spring training and has spent the entire season this far on the DL. This is his first game at this level in 2015 but he did pitch 27 innings of rehab, including four starts at Triple-A Columbus in which he had a BB/K split of 1/17 in 21.1 innings. Tomlin has extensive experience. He’s a soft-tosser with high-80s mph velocity who had displayed marginal 5.0-ish K's per nine innings in his 340+ MLB innings prior to 2014. He showed an uncustomary 8.1 K’s/9 in 2014, while sustaining his typical pinpoint control. Tomlin could deliver some nice hidden profit the rest of the way. His skills quietly were exceptional in 2014. His elite command was supported by a strong 10% swing and miss rate and top-tier 68% first-pitch strike rate. In spite of having a fastball that struggles to reach 90 mph, he has three legit strikeout pitches: curveball (19% swing and miss rate), cutter (14% swing and miss rate), and changeup (14% swing and miss rate). Tomlin has immediate 3.50-ERA upside that the market will not realize and that’s why he’s a pooch today against a rookie. That’s incorrect.
The Indians are playing really good ball right now. They took the opener of this series last night 6-1 and have now won five of six with only loss over that span occurring against Nathan Eovaldi and the Yanks by a score of 8-6. The Tribe is absolutely crushing right-handers at the moment and will face another one here in rookie Tyler Duffey, who is making his second MLB start. In his first start in Toronto, Duffey lasted two innings after allowing two jacks and six runs. We wouldn’t put much weight on one start but in this case, one has to wonder about Duffey’s confidence level after getting hammered in his first taste of big-league batters. Heading out to the mound today, we have to trust that he’s fragile. Duffey is just 24 without knockout stuff. Much of baseball, especially pitching, is played between the years and Duffey has to feeling a bit anxious about going roght back out there not knowing whethere he's capable of getting big leaguers out. After getting whacked by the Jays, Duffey now faces the hottest hitting team in the majors over the past seven days. Pencil us in for this live dog.
Oakland +125 over BALTIMORE
Miguel Gonzalez is another one of these high-risk, low-reward starting pitchers.For the third straight year, Gonzalez’s groundball % and line-drive % have taken a turn for the worse. Gonzalez’s 38%/25%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball splits reveal just how volatile he really is. When batters make contact, it’s a complete roll of the dice where the ball goes and how hard it’s hit because he’s not far off from a 33%/33%/33% batted ball profile. At least he’s consistent, meaning Gonzalez is just as bad on the road, as he is at home with a 4.61/4.32 home/away ERA split. In 52 home innings, Gonzalez has been taken yard 10 times already. Gonzalez is always at the mercy of his defense (and the whims of chance) to decide his fate. As the chalk, he has zero value.
Chris Bassitt has nothing but value. This guy is one of the most underrated and undervalued pitchers in the game. Bassitt brings 94 mph heat with great life. Since being inserted into the more comfortable starting role, Bassitt has been absolutely dominating. In his last start against the Astros, Bassitt struck out 10 batters and allowed just three hits in 6.2 frames. Over his last three starts, he has whiffed 23 in 20.2 innings while allowing just 14 hits and four runs. His swing and miss rate in his last start was 16% and overall it’s at an elite rate of 12%. Since being inserted into the rotation, Bassitt has an ERA/xERA split of 2.03/2.88. That’s in the range of guys like Cory Kluber, Zack Greinke and teammate Sonny Gray but Bassitt is priced more like Colby Lewis. Great value here that must be played.
Cincinnati +190 over LOS ANGELES
Now that Johnny Cueto has been traded, the 24-year-old left-hander David Holmberg has been put in Cueto's slot. Holmberg has a good sinking fastball that reaches the low 90s, along with an average slider and a low-80s changeup that is plus. The 6'3", 245-pounder can use his height to pound low in the zone and force ground balls, but when he loses command, he can be roughed up as he was last year in Cincinnati. Holmberg has two quality starts in three tries since being called up and he also brings a nifty 53%/16%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile with him. He does have risk for sure because his BB/K split is an unimpressive 9/12 over 18 innings but we could not care less, as this one has nothing to do with backing Holmberg and everything to do with fading Brett Anderson and an extremely shaky Dodgers bullpen.
Justin Turner returned for the Dodgers last night and there is no question that he makes them a better team and injects some energy into them but starters like Brett Anderson cannot be favored in this range against a dangerous team like the Reds. We’ve been fading Anderson for about a month now, citing that he’s in unchartered territory in terms of his innings pitched. Anderson threw 175 innings in his rookie season back in 2009 but hasn’t come close since with injuries shelving him for long stretches at a time. Anderson has now thrown 129 innings this year after throwing a combined 204 innings over the past four seasons and never more than 83 innings in one year over that span. He was hammered in his last start by the Nationals. Anderson has struck out two batters or less in three of his last four starts and three batters or less in four of his last five starts. His swinging strike rate over that span is a mere 4%. Over his last 21 innings, Anderson has a BB/K split of 8/10. This is a stagnant pitcher with mediocre skills that is priced like Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke here. That’s outta whack.
Brian Hay
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -102
Colorado is far more formidable at Coors Field where it has scored seven or more runs in six of its last 11 home games. San Diego is 3-7 in its last 10 games and also has lost seven of the past 10 times to the Rockies at Coors. San Diego will start Andrew Cashner today. Cashner has been at his worst away from Petco Park with a 2-6 road mark and 4.37 ERA. Cashner isn't in good form either with a 5.09 ERA during his past three starts. Cashner has won just once in his last six starts and he is 1-3 with a 5.91 ERA in 10 career appearances versus Colorado. The Rockies have won six of their last eight home games against right-handers. The Rockies are starting their top pitching prospect, Jonathan Gray. This will be his third big league start. Opposing batters are hitting just .162 against him.
Dave Price
New York Mets -108
The New York Mets are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have gone 11-3 in their last 14 games overall, and it's clear that the moves they made at the trade deadline have propelled them into a commanding lead in the NL East race with Washington. With the way Jon Niese is pitching right now, the Mets should be bigger favorites Saturday. Niese has gone 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three starts. Conversely, Charlie Morton is 7-4 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in 14 starts for Pittsburgh, including 1-0 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in his last three starts. Morton has been awful on the road, going 3-3 with a 5.92 ERA in seven road starts. Morton is 0-3 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.544 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts versus New York. Morton is 18-41 (-19.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career. The Pirates are 128-262 in their last 390 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are 52-13 in their last 65 games as a home favorite. New York is 6-1 in Niese's last 7 starts as a favorite.