Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -123
The Tampa Bay Rays are showing solid value as small road favorites over the Texas Rangers Saturday night. I like the value we are getting here due to the fact that the Rays have a massive edge on the mound in this one.
Ace Chris Archer gets the ball for Tampa Bay looking to continue the best season of his career. The right-hander has gone 10-8 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.009 WHIP In 24 starts, striking out 190 batters in 154 2/3 innings. Archer is also 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three starts.
Colby Lewis is past his prime and has a 12-5 record in spite of a 4.61 ERA on the season, so he has clearly just been the beneficiary of good run support. Lewis also sports a 5.27 ERA in 11 home starts this season.
Texas is 0-9 (-9.4 Units) against the money line after three straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last two seasons. The Rays are 15-5 in Archer's last 20 road starts. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in Archer's last seven starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
ASA
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -115
The 11-game win streak for the Jays ended last night in a 4-3 home loss to open up this big Rogers Centre series with the Yankees. Toronto led most of the way with seven shutout innings from David Price before he ran into trouble in the eighth inning. While Toronto wound up falling short they did get runners in scoring position in the ninth before losing the battle despite a great at-bat from Troy Tulowitzki to end the game as this team is playing hard and finishing games. Toronto went just 1-10 with runners in scoring position last night to miss in many key opportunities as since the All Star break the Blue Jays have outscored foes by two runs per game on average while posting over three extra-base hits per game. The win put the Yankees back in front in the AL East for the moment but Toronto is 77 runs superior in run differential on the season and the Jays are an impressive 39-22 at home including 11-3 on the past two home stands. The Yankees started the second half off on a torrid pace offensively but since posting 13 runs in the opening game of a home series vs. Boston the Yankees have scored a total of just 21 runs in the last nine games, while only topping four runs once. New York had 13 hits yesterday but nine of them were singles, getting the one big hit they needed with Carlos Beltran hitting a three run home run. Marco Estrada has emerged as a quality starter for the Jays with a 3.21 ERA this season and Toronto is 5-1 in his last six home starts. He had over six scoreless innings vs. the Yankees last week and he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts. Even with the loss yesterday the Jays own a 0.36 bullpen ERA in the last 10 games and in 11 of the last 12 games Toronto pitching has allowed four or fewer runs as a team known for offense is getting it done on the mound as well. In an injury-plagued season Masahiro Tanaka has not achieved the same success he had last season. While he has a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio he is allowing runs with three or more runs allowed in seven of his last nine starts. Tanaka has allowed 18 home runs in 16 starts this season, a foreboding sign going up against a team that is second in baseball in home runs. Toronto is already 2-0 vs. Tanaka this season beating him twice at Yankee Stadium and given that Toronto closed as a nearly -240 favorite last night this is a huge price shift in what looks like a fairly even pitching matchup with the recent form edge clearly with Estrada. Toronto has been the best team in the AL since the break and while New York got a big win last night the Jays look capable of bouncing back and this is about as low of favorite price as Toronto will have at home the rest of the season.
Brandon Lee
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -123
Tampa Bay is worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Rangers. Anytime you can back the Rays at -150 or less with their ace Chris Archer on the mound, who is 7-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.046 WHIP over 11 road starts. Archer also has a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts. Texas will be sending out Colby Lewis, who has a 5.27 ERA at home and a 5.40 ERA over his last 3 outings. Rays are 14-4 in their last 18 road games after winning 3 of their last 4.
Alex Smart
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees +102
New York Yankees Pinch-hitter Carlos Beltran delivered a crushing home run at key juncture of last nights game as the Yankees staged a come-from-behind, 4-3 victory to end the Blue Jays' 11-game winning streak with a thud in the series opener at Rogers Centre on Friday. You could feel the air just be sucked out of stadium as the crowd fell silent and than agitated. Games and results like the one described above can give momentum to the underdog, in the following game, and create a negative emotional letdown for the team that saw a extended hot run come to an abrupt end. Tanaka the Yankees starter has seen his team win 5 straight when he starts again above .500 teams like the Blue Jays, and I like him and the pinstripes to pull off another one today.
Power Sports
Miami vs. St. Louis
Pick: Miami +1.5
Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Marlins +1.5. They have yet to beat the Cardinals this year (0-4) and while it doesn't appear there's much hope, I do feel the run line offers a nice value tonight as the Cards are not as effective against left-handed starters.
The Marlins made an overnight pitching change, now electing to go w/ Brad Hand, who has allowed just one run in his last two appearances. Last time out, he went seven innings and allowed just two hits as the team won in Atlanta, 4-1. I was on him. St. Louis is just 16-15 when facing a southpaw starter this season. Expect Hand to hold up his end of the bargain.
Facing John Lackey will be tough for Miami, but the Cards starter does have an 0-3 TSR his L3 times out. Also, keep in mind that St. Louis has played the most one-run games of any-team in baseball. While the odds look stacked against them, the Marlins won't do any worse than a one-run loss here.
Wunderdog
Seattle vs. Boston
Pick: Seattle -127
The Boston Red Sox took some hard news yesterday as manager John Farrell announced he had Lymphoma, and will undergo treatment, and miss the rest of the season. Torey Levullo will take over as manager for the rest of the season. They will have a difficult path to the win column today vs. Felix Hernandez, who after a couple of subpar starts, got back on track his last time out. Hernandez is 11-6 lifetime vs. Boston, and owns a 25.5% ROI against them, which is actually higher at Fenway. Wade Miley has not gone seven consecutive starts without a win, and he has been a huge disappointment in Boston. His 10 starts at Fenway have resulted in a 5.05 ERA, and his last win here came two months ago. The Mariners are 21-7 off a loss in their last 28 and Boston has shown little resolve as a home dog at 18-39 in their last 57.
Ian Cameron
Ottawa VS. Calgary
Play: Ottawa +8.5
I covered this game on Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast (you can listen here) and pointed out that Calgary was in a pretty good situational spot. The Stampeders are off of a bye and playing with revenge after losing to Ottawa 29-26 (OT) back in Week 5. But my concern here is that the Stamps have yet to put their best foot forward and play a complete game. Despite its 4-2 straight up record, Calgary hasn’t cashed a single ticket with an 0-6 ATS mark. Meanwhile, the Redblacks have done nothing but outpace the markets this season with a 4-2 straight up record and 4-2 ATS mark -- they were priced as underdogs in all six contests. Calgary is due for a breakout game with their once injury-ravaged offensive line now healthier but until I see that "A game" I can't justify this type of price range. Overall, we're getting a capable road underdog at a playable number as we take the points.
Jason Sharpe
Detroit at Houston
Play: Detroit
The Detroit Tigers at this price in this match-up are getting a ton of line value. They have a solid offense that can score some runs. They go with the much improved Justin Verlander in this game. Verlander has come a long way in his last few starts and overall he looks much better than he did all of last season as well as he continues to recover from some issues in his core area of his body. The Houston Astros Colin McHugh hasn't pitched well in Houston this season with an ERA approaching 5.00. The right-hander is down quite a bit from his surprise season of 2014 and though he's got the job done for Houston, he is a guy the Astros would like to replace in the near future. The bottom line here is that Verlander and the potent Tigers bats at this price offer way too much value to pass on in this game. Take Detroit here.
Alan Harris
Detroit at Houston
Play: Houston
The Houston Astros will look to clinch a series win over the Detroit Tigers when the two teams meet this evening at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Collin McHugh, who has been good for the Astros this season, gets the start for them tonight. He has posted a 13- 6 record with a 4.22 ERA and he's held opponents to two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. McHugh will be opposed by Justin Verlander, who has struggled for the Tigers since coming off the DL. He is just 1-5 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in ten starts here in 2015 and he's given up at least five runs in three of his last seven starts. The Astros, who lead the Angels by 2.5 games in the AL West, have been excellent in the spot they are in here tonight. They have posted an 8-1 record in McHugh's last nine starts at home when facing a team with a losing record and they are an excellent 38-19 overall at home this season. The Tigers, on the other hand, have really been awful in the situation we find them in here tonight. They are just 4-11 in their last 15 games when facing a team from the AL West and they have gone just 3-13 in Verlander's last 16 road starts where he was listed as an underdog of +110 to +150. Throw in the fact that the Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 home games when facing a right handed starter and we'll lay the price with them at home to get the win.