Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Buffalo at Pittsburgh
The Steelers return home following last week's 20-16 loss to the Giants in New York as they host Buffalo on Saturday night. Pittsburgh is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2).

Game 411-412: Green Bay at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 117.284; St. Louis 121.856
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-2 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: NY Giants at Indianapolis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.028; Indianapolis 119.488
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Baltimore at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 126.112; Dallas 119.132
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+1); Under

Game 417-418: NY Jets at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 118.838; Cincinnati 125.989
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 117.315; Pittsburgh 121.786
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.514; Tampa Bay 117.249
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Under

Game 423-424: Atlanta at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.476; Houston 119.042
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Over

Game 425-426: Arizona at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 120.519; Minnesota 124.930
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over

SUNDAY, AUGUST 17

Game 427-428: Denver at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.393; San Francisco 125.031
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Over

Game 429-430: Kansas City at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.384; Carolina 122.008
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3); Over

MONDAY, AUGUST 18

Game 431-432: Cleveland at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.868; Washington 123.730
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

WNBA

Chicago at Indiana
The Sky head to Indiana tonight and come into the contest with a 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games versus an Eastern Conference opponent. Chicago is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3).

Game 651-652: Chicago at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.411; Indiana 114.197
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over

Game 653-654: New York at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 108.231; Washington 112.156
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 4; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 6; 143
Dunkel Pick: New York (+6); Over

Game 655-656: Tulsa at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 105.325; Minnesota 113.847
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 8 1/2;
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 164 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Under

Game 657-658: Los Angeles at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 110.281; Phoenix 120.834
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 157 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Under

CFL

Calgary at Hamilton
The Stampeders head to Hamilton this afternoon and come into the contest with a 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Calgary is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-4).

Game 125-126: Calgary at Hamilton (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 120.554; Edmonton 114.036
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 6 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Calgary by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-4); Under

Game 127-128: Montreal at Saskatchewan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 103.872; Saskatchewan 120.826
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 17; 44
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 13 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-13 1/2); Under

Tony George

New York AT Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati -3.5

The Bengals return home after a wild and whacky 41-39 shootout loss in Kansas City, where special teams blunders, pick sixes, and overall poor play was the theme of the day for the Bengals. Getting to return home after an opening game 1 defeat against a team who won, is always an angle to look at. Another Angle is the fact the Jets, who have settled in at QB with Geno Smith, managed just 235 yards of offense against the Colts in a 13-10 ho-hum win, and this is their first road trip in this early preseason.

As I look to camp reports at cincyjungle.com, an excellent site for team info with comprehensive coverage of daily team reports, the offensive line is much healthier and will see some time in this game as well as they were very thin in their game at KC in that area due to injury issues. The depth of the running game that Cincy has dwarfs that of the Jets, and I also expect the special teams and second team offense to be vastly sharper than they were in Kansas City last week. The Jets are not a deep team at skill positions, and not all that talented on offense either in my opinion, and I doubt QB Smith sniffs the field after the first quarter here and Mike Vick will do his thing, which is past its prime I might add. At days end the Bengals potential for scoring is higher and the motivation to win the home opener in the preseason after a loss will also be in play after a mistake filled debacle at Kansas City last week.

Andre Ramirez

Giants vs. Colts
Play: Under 41

Today we are advising our clients to lay the money on the 41 under. The Colts where able to limit the Jets last week to 13 points. This game matches up pretty good when you know the Giants will attempt to send the ball in the air, against a defense which is money in stopping the pass. The Colts have new talent Louchiez Purifoy who was one of the best CB in college last year.Louchiez is not your average CB, he is quick in the back field, and loves to sack the Quarterback. The Colts offense will have issues getting past the Giants Defense. The Giants limited the Bills to 13, and the Steelers 16 points. The Giants are excellent in the stopping the pass, but lack in stopping the run. I don't see the Colts putting up a lot of points since they are a passing team. According to my analysis, I have the Colts winning 17-10. Lay the money on the under, and get paid.

Andre Ramirez's Featured Package

Frank Jordan

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Miami Dolphins +2.5

Tampa Bay went just 4-12 last season, but three of the four wins did come at home as they host Miami in this preseason battle of Florida. Miami finished second in the AFC East with an 8-8 record and went 4-4 on the road. In Tampa Bay's first battle of Florida with Jacksonville the Bucs lost 16-10, but that was on the road. Miami also lost their preseason game on the road at Atlanta also 16-10, but Tannehill did well 6/6 with a TD pass and was not sacked. This should be a good battle for two young teams as Tannehill and Glennon will look to battle things out on the field and for top QB in Florida. Glennon did well in his first preseason start he went 11-19 for 140 yards and a TD pass. In this game look for both to do well with Tannehill to do a little better leading to the Dolphins picking up the victory.

Marc Lawrence

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: New York Giants

Edges - Giants: 5-0 ATS preseason off BB SUATS wins, and 4-1 ATS away preseason vs AFC, and 5-2-1 ATS Away One preseason. Colts: 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS preseason home off away. With the Giants anxious to stay on the winning track following last season?s faux pas and the Colts more interested in next week?s dress rehearsal against New Orleans, we recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Play: Under 7

Washington is a huge park and a pair of quality arms are on the hill. Jeff Locke goes for Pittsburgh throws strikes and the under is 5-2 in Locke's last 7 Saturday starts. Pittsburgh plays fine defense and the offense can struggle against southpaws, with the under 9-4-1 in the Pirates last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter. They face lefty Gio Gonzalez, with opponents hitting .241 off him. The under is 15-7 in the Nationals last 22 vs. a team with a winning record. Gonzalez has extra rest and the under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. Coming into this series these teams have played low scoring defensive battles with the under 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings and this shapes up as a pitcher's duel.

Joe D'Amico

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Buffalo Bills

These two teams met last November with Pittsburgh winning, 23-10. As a matter of fact, the Steelers have taken 9 of the L10 regular season meetings, going 9-1 ATS over the Bills. Can you say "Payback?" The Steelers opened up this year's campaign with a 20-16 loss to the Giants. Jones, Gradkowski, and Roethlisberger were 20-of-35, for 186 YP, and 0 TD's. The running game is non-existent as they totaled a mere 70 yards on the ground. It's the same old story. And with, once again no OL to speak of, bleak times are ahead for this squad. The Giants had success both passing and running the ball against the Steelers. Buffalo has two games under their belt already with QB's, Manuel, Lewis, and Tuel vastly improving with each contest while their ground attack will prove to be too much for the aged Pitt "D". I also expect standout WR, Sammy Watkins to make a splash here. The Bills get their long-awaited revenge in this one.

Joe D'Amico's Featured Package

Sseepyj

Yankees / Rays Over 7

Last time out Drew Smyly pitched a near gem for Tampa Bay. Today he gets his chance to do it again today Vs. the New York Yankees and will try to duplicate that last performance. We think that's going to be a bit tough here today. Smyly has a 6-10 record and a 3.96 ERA. It's his natural way of things to just regress today. We will follow suit here with Smyly today. The Yankees will be rather salty after getting shutout on Friday night. They will look to take it to Smyly tonight. One thing we love is how Smyly pitched a great game last time out on the road. Tonight he will be at home for his first start and we think the jitters and his recent success will get to him early. He will give up a few hits and i think he will fall apart as the Yankees try to chip away today to get themselves a win. The Yankees will counter with RHP Shane Greene. Greene had a real solid last outing and that's not really how he performs on a regular basis. He tend to give up free base runners and can get hit for the long ball as well. His control today may be an issue as well as the Devil Rays have been doing a nice job inside the box the last 2 games. Both of these pitchers listed today really pitched great games and the situation in those last game was perfect for them. Both games very low scoring affairs for the opposition. A total of 0 runs were given up by both teams the last time either stepped on the mound. We love that fact today. This line is really juicy at 7 for us to make a play here on the OVER. I can see a game in the area of 5-4 maybe we hit 10 runs if we get a few long balls today. I think with the regression of Smyly, the desperation of the Yankees, the regression of Greene, and the fact that this line is incorrect we need to not hesitate to fire on this OVER. Lets jump in this one with confidence today..

Bruce Marshall

Yankees at Rays
Pick: Under

Tampa Bay starting pitchers have not allowed more than 2 runs over a sparkling nine-game stretch in which they are 6-0 with a 0.90 ERA, and the Rays club 7-2 in those games. Drew Smyly was the last Rays starter to lose Aug. 5 in his team debut at Oakland. He bounced back by earning his first Tampa Bay victory Monday by striking out nine in a career-high 7 2/3 innings in a 7-0 win at Texas. Yanks rookie starter Shane Greene grew up in nearby Lake County, and has posted a 2.89 ERA, but the Yankees have lost five straight, batting .174 and striking out 46 times in that stretch.

Scott Spreitzer

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Kansas City Royals -104

The Royals will send Yordano Ventura to the mound looking for his 5th straight quality start. Ventura has pitched well on the road and he's backed by a lineup that's averaging over 5 rpg in their last 12 games. KC has been high in the rankings in team batting average much of the season, but couldn't plate base runners. That has changed of late and KC has surged to the top of the division. Minnesota will counter with Phil Hughes, who has pitched well with three straight quality starts. But while the Royals are cruising along, the Twins have won just 10 of 26 since the all-star break. Minnesota has won just 5 of their last 18 home games and just 1 of 5 when Hughes throws on 4 days rest. KC has won 10 of their last 14 in Minnesota and they're on a 36-16 run as road chalk. While we have the starting pitchers ranked pretty even, the Royals pen is a little better, they're scoring more runs, and overall, they're the much better team at this point of the season, playing with extreme confidence. I'm recommending a play on the Royals on Saturday.

Rob Vinciletti

Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -2½

The Steelers have been solid at home in the preseason winning 12 of their last 14 here. Tonight they fit a nice system we use that actually play against the Bills and any road dog that comes in off a road win by 3 or less points. Buffalo came back late last week in Carolina to get a 20-18 win while the Steelers lost 20-16 in game one in New York. The Steelers played better in the 2nd half of that game outscoring the Giants 13-7. Buffalo has been outscored in the 2nd half of both of their Preseason games and are just 2-10 in road games. The Steelers are not as strong as the 23-0 and 19-0 Power system play on the Saturday card but they should get the job done.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Will Rogers

Jets vs. Bengals
Play: Over 41½

The New York Jets offense was one of the worst in the NFL last year, but with Mike Vick and Geno Smith battling for the starters job, we could see New York put some points on the board in the pre-season. The Jets are in Cincinnati tonight, taking on a Bengals team that surrendered a whopping 41 points in a loss at Kansas City in Week 1. I'm expecting to see a shootout in Cincy tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Backup Quarterbacks - Mike Vick and Jason Campbell are each listed as the #2 quarterbacks on the depth chart, but both have plenty of experience starting in the NFL. Campbell threw a pair of TD passes in Week 1, while Vick showed he's still got lightning speed.

2. Officiating - It was no accident that all four of last night's games went over the total, as offense were aided by flags, with officials calling pass interference on the slightest contact.

3. X-Factor - The Bengals have seen the total go over in four of their last five pre-season games.

Art Aronson

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -118

Toronto will send veteran Mark Buehrle (11-8, 3.31 ERA) to the hill to face his old team and to try and help his current team get back on track; note that the southpaw is a solid 1-1 with a 2.51 ERA vs. the White Sox. Chicago counters with John Danks (9-8, 4.96 ERA); Danks allowed four runs over 6 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Sunday; note Danks has struggled versus the Jays in posting a 2-5, 5.89 ERA lifetime record.Yes, the Blue Jays have lost four in a row coming in, but the White Sox haven’t won back-to-back games in over 2.5 weeks. Note that Toronto gets a big boost with the return of slugger Edwin Encarnacion today. The Jays are the better team talent wise and I am not going to over think this one. Take the small favorite on the road.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Mike Lundin

San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: San Diego Padres +120

The Cardinals will look to get a third consecutive win versus San Diego tonight, as that would set them up for a possible sweep tomorrow. The Padres five game winning streak has come to an abrupt stop here in St. Louis, but I like their chances tonight as they have an advantage on the mound.

The Padres are going with Jesse Hahn (7-3, 2.52 ERA), a 25 year old rookie who has pitched above all expectations. He's 4-1 with a 2.12 ERA on the road this season. The Cardinals line-up has struggled versus Hahn at previous encounters, hitting .182 over 22 at bats.

Shelby Miller (8-9, 4.17 ERA) will take the hill for the Cardinals, and his home record this season is nothing to brag about. The 23 year old is 3-5 over 12 outings, with an ERA of 3.95.

The Padres are 4-1 in Hahn's last five road starts, while the Cardinals are 0-4 in Millers last four starts at Busch Stadium.