Jimmy Adams
Packers vs. Rams
Play: Over 41
With both teams coming off of loses last week we should see some added effort in this contest. Not that wins and losses matter in the preseason, but both of these teams are still evaluating much of their talent and there are multiple positions up for grabs.
The Packers played in the rain against the Titans last week so Aaron Rodgers was virtually a nonfactor, along with most of the 1st teamers. You can bet the Packers will want to be much more effective this time around. New Rams Defensive Coordinator Greg Williams didn’t blitz very often last week against New Orleans. Of course, blitzing is a huge factor in the preseason because the opposing offense has such an advantage without the pressure. Williams most likely won’t blitz again and that will make things easier on Rodgers and his backups.
Last week the Rams got solid play from the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string QB’s, as all were able to move the ball downfield effectively. There were no turnovers at all between Shaun Hill, Austin Davis, or Garrett Gilbert combined. St. Louis will be letting the ball fly again this week as they look to solidify their depth chart at the WR position. Rookie tight end Alex Bayer out of Bowling Green had a very nice game last week, and that should translate against this Packers secondary.
MMA OddsBreaker
Lauren Murphy vs Sara McMann
Pick: Lauren Murphy
Lauren Murphy is getting absolutely zero respect from the betting public. The reigning Invicta FC women's bantamweight champion enters the UFC with a spotless record after defeating the extremely dangerous Miriam Nakamoto in her last bout. Murphy is tough as nails, can take a shot with the best of them and fights at an extremely high pace with good speed and movement.
Look for her to try to outwork Sara McMann both in open space and in the clinch. She's not a huge finishing threat, but she wears opponents down and has a knack for winning decisions despite being an underdog. McMann is going to have a wrestling advantage here, but Murphy is solid on the ground and if she's able to scramble back to her feet, she's going to make this a very interesting fight. The line is way off here due to the hype McMann got for her title fight against Ronda Rousey this past February and this is a great opportunity to catch a live dog before the betting public figures out who she is.
DAVE COKIN
CINCINNATI REDS AT COLORADO ROCKIES
PLAY: COLORADO ROCKIES
No number on this game as I’m writing this, but I’m expecting the Rockies to be what ought to be a reasonably priced favorite tonight. I think they’ve got enough edges to warrant consideration.
Justin Lyles will be starting for the home team. There’s some debate as to exactly what Lyles is throwing, but the main thing is that his best offering sinks when it’s working. That’s the story for Lyles. If he keeps the ball down and gets ground balls, he’s a serviceable big league starter. If he gets up ion the zone, he’s prone to being taken deep, and that can be a major problem in this ballpark. Lyles was not good at all in his first start off the DL, but was much better in terms of generating those grounders last outing. Lyles should match up well with a Reds entry that doesn’t have much power these days.
The flip side here is Dylan Axelrod, who has never shown the ability to get major league batters out on a regular basis. He has surrendered a career BA in excess of .300 in his intermittent big league appearances. That by itself doesn’t bode well for Axlerod pitching at Coors Field. Making matters worse is that he has never pitched in this park. That’s where the long term trend I alluded to comes into play. First-time Coors starting pitchers are a notoriously risky proposition. When it’s a Quad-A type like Axelrod, I have to believe it gets even worse.
As for other elements, the Rockies bullpen is horrendous, so there’s always some element of risk involved in asking them to hold a late lead if they have one. But that’s offset by what looks to me like a nice edge for Colorado with the sticks. Pitchers are simply not fearing this Cincy lineup right now, and we’re seeing an aggressive mindset by opposing hurlers on a virtually nightly basis.
Jorge De La Rosa, who basically never loses at home, was only about a 6/5 favorite on Thursday night. So while Lyles is going to be the favorite tonight, I can’t see this line being unplayable. Axelrod won’t get much respect from the oddsmakers, so I’m assuming a bit more chalk than on Thursday, but as long as this is reasonable, say -130 or better, the Rockies are certainly worthy of consideration tonight.
Chip Chirimbes
NY Yankees vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -120
The Tampa Bay Rays may have traded away a Cy Young Award winning in David Price but they continue their fine pitching as they finally reached .500 (61-61). The Rays have won seven of their last nine and have a 2.53 team ERA in August and have allowed three of fewer runs in a club-record 11 straight games.
Sleeepyj
Raves / Cowboys Over 41
Tonight we will fire away with the OVER in this one. Dallas had a rather hard time scoring the last preseason game. Tony Romo did not play and Brandon Weeden saw the majority of the reps. Weeden actually had a pretty good game going 13-17 for 107 YDS and 1 TD. I really like the fact that Weeden had some success with his timing with his receivers last week. Tonight he will get his own set of snap with his regular unit. That should prove to be beneficial tonight as he has established a nice rhythm with his receivers last week. Last week for the Ravens it really was the Tyrod Taylor show. He was 13-21 with 116 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. We expect the same situation here with Taylor as we do Weeden. Joe Flacco should get himself into a nice rhythm tonight as well. The Baltimore starters will look to get into the end zone tonight against a less then average Cowboys defense. The Cowboys gave up 400 yards of offense last week I expect that to be just about the same tonight. I think we will see a rather vanilla outing on the defensive side of the ball for both defenses as they allow the offenses to get into a rhythm. The second string teams on defense are not that great for either squad. I think the impact of the new rules in place will give us a few extra cracks at the end zone tonight as well. Tony Romo will look to get himself right into game mode as he missed last week. I think we can expect Romo for just about a full 1st qtr and maybe a few series in the second before he gives way to Weeden. The Cowboys are thin at RB so i think we will see an air it out show here by Dallas. I see no reason they don't get 28+ points here tonight. As for Baltimore they have talent and speed on offense both units will get the chance to score tonight. They will look to condense down the offense and really work on game the game plan tonight for the 1st and 2nd unit. Tonight's the night the players for Baltimore will be looking for jobs. They have a ton of players that are young that had some good efforts last week. They will try to duplicate those performances tonight. We like the fact that they face a Dallas defense that is rather average. I can see Baltimore getting 28+ points tonight as well. The scoring has been up so far in preseason and we think that will continue tonight. Lets back the Over here as we think we might see a game that lands near 51 to 56 points. Lets back the OVER here with confidence.
Sleeepyj
Packers / Rams Over 41.5
Both teams will look to fire away with this one later on today. Green Bay played a rather vanilla game on offense last week and i think that will change today. Green Bay will look to get the starters into the game for a good bit tonight. We will see some great production out of the Green Bay offense as they will now have some rhythm on offense. Rodgers and Co. will put some points on the board as they look to light it up down field. Green Bay's running attack last week was good enough to mix the game up. Today they will look to limit the running plays as they are a little thin in that area. I see no reason why Green Bay won't score tonight. The Rams defense played pretty good in regards with the 2nd team. The starters for the Rams did struggle a bit and i think that will continue against GB today. The refs will be out in full force in this one as Rodgers and Bradford look to exploit the secondaries today. The Rams also had some really good output with the rushing attack last week and i think they will dial that back this week to make way for the offensive passing game. The Rams really will be looking for quality out of the receiving core as they have a stable of WR's. Green Bay's secondary has always been suspect and i think we will see that tonight as both defenses go with a rather vanilla look. I look for both teams to score in the 20's and i think the OVER has a great shot to be hit in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Atlanta Braves +103
The Braves opened up their huge home series against the A's with a convincing 7-2 win that featured 4 home runs and I look for them to build off that performance with another victory tonight. Oakland is in a major funk right now. The A's have dropped 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. Offensively they are really struggling, as they have now scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games.
Oakland's struggles at the plate are big reason why I'm confident that youngster Julio Teheran will bounce back from a couple of bad outings with strong performance at home. Teheran has an impressive 1.88 ERA and 0.904 WHIP over 12 home starts. I'll take my chances with Atlanta providing enough run support, as they go up against the A's Sonny Gray, who has a 4.42 ERA and 1.418 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
Atlanta is 26-10 in their last 36 home games against a team with a winning road record, 5-1 in their last 6 home games with a total set at 6.5 or lower and 11-4 in Teheran's last 15 starts during game 2 of a series.
We also see a strong system in play to fade the A's. Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 who are a below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games are a mere 33-67 since 1997. That's a 67% system in favor of the Braves.
Jesse Schule
Toronto vs. Chicago
Play: Over 9
The Jays have now lost four in a row heading into tonight's contest in Chicago, and the White Sox hammered them in the series opener by a score of 11-5 last night. Mark Buehrle will toe the slab for the visitors, and he hasn't been sharp at all lately. Buehrle (11-8, 3.31 ERA) was chased after just 3 1/3 innings, allowing five runs on nine hits at home against the Tigers his last time out. He lost to the White Sox at Rogers Center earlier this year, and this will be his first start at Cellular Field wearing a visitors uniform.
The White Sox hand the ball to John Danks, who has been completely destroyed in his last two starts. Danks (9-8, 4.96 ERA) has surrendered 13 runs on 16 hits and seven walks over 11 innings in his last two starts. He's been hit hard by the Jays in past meetings, and Edwin Encarnacion has homered twice in eight career at bats versus Danks.
While both starters have struggled, the same can be said about both bullpens. Todd Redmond was responsible for five of Chicago's runs last night, failing to make it out of the 5th inning. These teams have pushed the total over in four of the last five meetings in Chicago, while Danks has seen the total go over in four of his last five starts versus Toronto.
Jeff Clement
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Play: Under 41.5
Tony Romo will get the start at quarterback for the Cowboys but won't see much action as backups Brandon Weeden or Dustin Vaughn will get most of the Snaps. Baltimore will probably rest TE Owen Daniels and lookout for the Ravens defense with 2nd round draft pick Timmy Jernigan and cornerback Jimmy Smith who have both had good training camps. I don't expect too much scoring and the Under is 28-14 in Baltimore games when line is +3 to -3.
Tony Stoffo
Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Under 7
With Shane Greene getting the ball here against Drew Smyly sure sets up as another lower scoring game here and a strong release on the under in this spot between the Yankees and Rays here. Under is 7-2-1 in NYY last 10 overall. Under is 8-1-2 in TB last 11 games following a win. Plus add in the fact that today's home plate umpire Kerwin Danley has seen 14 of his last 15 games going under the posted only adds to this play here.
Allen Eastman
Tampa Bay -2
The Dolphins have won just two of 10 games in the preseason under coach Joe Philbin. They lost last week to a bad Falcons team and the Fins didn’t seem to care too much about that game. They will not be as motivated this week as the Bucs. Tampa Bay is trying to build some momentum after hiring Lovie Smith. He wants to get that first win for the home crowd and to give his team some confidence. Lovie went 6-3 in his second preseason game when he was coaching at Chicago. That suggests he makes adjustments. Tampa Bay’s defense was sharp last week and Miami is learning a new offense. Miami could be without key backup quarterback Matt Moore and I think that Tampa Bay will be much more into this game. Take Tampa Bay to win this one going away.
Robert Ferringo
Arizona +3
One of the things that has helped me become a successful football bettor – the No. 1 football handicapper in the country last year, as a matter of fact, with an amazing 62.1 percent success rate in the NFL (95-58) – is knowing how much the public overreacts to things. For instance, both Arizona and Minnesota had great Week 1’s last weekend and they both handled their opponents. But this line is a gross overreaction to Minnesota’s play and I felt like it should’ve come out as a ‘Pk’ or maybe Minnesota -1.0. But to give Arizona a full field goal is a bit odd. Arizona went 10-6 last year and improved this offseason. They have an established system and a second-year coach so their dominating Week 1 over Houston wasn’t a total shock. Minnesota bumbled to 5-10-1 last year. They have a rookie quarterback, who is going to get extended time this week, and a rookie coach still trying to figure things out. The Vikings won their first preseason game. But it came via a sloppy 10-6 decision against equally awful Oakland. I think it will be even worse this time around. Arizona won at Green Bay and at Denver last year and they are now 4-1 SU under Bruce Arians. He comes from the Steelers, originally, and Pittsburgh has been known for its serious preseason attitude. I think Arizona shows the gap between these two teams and they win this one outright.
Andrew Lange
Toronto at Chicago
Play: Over 9
Two old buddies square off against one another as Mark Buehrle returns to Chicago to face John Danks. Not going to see many pitches his the 90 mph mark in this one. What we can expect is a lot of hard hit balls in play, particularly of the fly ball variety. Both pitchers have strong fly ball tendencies and with favorable weather conditions (wind out to left) look for a few of those batted balls to leave the yard. Neither pitcher is in good form with Danks allowing 28 earned runs in his last five starts. Buehrle meanwhile has seen his ERA finally spike after defying logic the first half of the season. In five post-All-Star outings the veteran lefty sports a 7.04 ERA. Some will point to the high BABIP (.432) during that span but when you don't miss many bats and are constantly pitching to contact, swatches like that are fairly common. Expect as many as 15 right-handed batters in this one as they knock around both soft-tossing lefties.
River City Sharps
Kansas City -110
We are going back to this series tonight after a tough loss with our pick on the Twins last night. The Twins will send Phil Hughes to the mound to be opposed by the Royals Yordano “Ace” Ventura. While control has been an issue at times for Ventura, he has posted a 4-1 record over his last eight starts and when he is pitching well, can be very difficult to hit for opponents. Hughes has been hot and cold for much of the year with the Twins, who are in the middle of a very disappointing season. Lots of trend lines favor the visitors here in this matchup, highlighted by the fact that the Royals are 4-1 in Ventura’s last five road starts and 15-3 in their last 18 games following a win. These are simply two teams going in different directions and while Hughes can be good at times, he is much more “hittable” than Ventura when he is on his game, so the smart (and sharp) money is on the visitors here in this spot.
Greg Shaker
Pittsburgh -2.5
Playing the NFLX is a different animal as we all know that. We have a strong Database with these games and that is what this play is all about here. The Steelers are in a very good situation to come away with a win and cover here especially since the betting line is now below the 3 mark. There is a 77% Database entry as well as a 62% Database entry that support this play and the involve not only the way teams react off a road loss in these games and this particular match-up with these teams. We can add to this that Buffalo is playing with some controversy on and off the field to come up with a Fair Betting Line for this one of Pittsburgh -5.25. At the current betting line of -2.5 that gives us this play..