Nelly
Blue Jays / White Sox Over 9
Mark Buehrle should be motivated to pitch well in his return to the south side of Chicago but after a brilliant start to the season the veteran left-hander has really struggled. Buehrle has allowed eight more hits in seven of his last 10 starts and he has allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts. In three of his last four starts he failed to go past four innings and the White Sox have been a hot offensive team, featuring baseball top team on-base-percentage since the All Star break. Chicago put up 11 runs last night to win the opening game of this series and the Toronto bullpen is in trouble tonight with Marcus Stroman getting just two outs in his starting effort last night. The Jays have had one of the worst bullpens in baseball this season and the unit will face some strain unless Buehrle can break his slide. Chicago has even worse recent relief pitching numbers with a comical 9.85 ERA in the last 10 games for the bullpen. While Toronto continues to lose ground in the AL East this is still a lineup with a lot of potential. John Danks for a moment looked like a popular trade target but the contenders are likely glad they passed on the veteran left-hander. In his last five starts Danks has allowed 28 runs in just 27 innings for a 9.22 ERA. He has allowed nine home runs in those five starts which is dangerous against a powerful Blue Jays lineup and U.S. Cellular Field has been a high scoring park with 9.2 runs per game on average and the 'over' going 31-27.
Bob Balfe
NY Jets +3
The Jets have the more athletic QB's which is always good to have in the preseason. This team has some great receivers that might have to be shipped out of town just because there are so many of them. This is a good football team and if they can get Smith or Vick to have a big season they can go as far as anybody. Outside of Dalton the Cincinnati backup QB's are brutal. If he goes down this year this team is toast. Take the Jets
Indianapolis Colts -1.5
If you are a Giants fan you have to be concerned about the lack of running backs this team has. Their starter has never been a featured back and they just can't risk injury in the preseason. The Colts are made up with a few ex giants that are great skilled players. Indy has the better backup QB. Take the Colts.
Bills / Steelers Over 40
Both teams have great backup skill players on offense that will dominate the defense in the later quarters. Buffalo has 3 legit starting running backs. Brice Brown will chew up yards bigtime in the second half. This should be a great game to watch with a lot of scoring. I am excited to see this Buffalo team this year and Pitt will be a lot better on offense. I believe the Steelers Defense will be on the decline this year. Take the Over.
Minnesota Vikings -3
This Arizona team is going to have to stay healthy and win with defense this year because their team on offense is not too deep. Minnesota has more polished quarterbacks and on this surface it is always a plus to take them in the preseason when visiting teams just want to get in and out of there with no injuries. Take Minnesota.
St. Louis Cardinals -135
Jesse Hahn has pitched well for San Diego this year in his limited innings, but this is an offense that usually can never get going especially on the road. It is hard to win 2-0 games in Major League Baseball night in and night out hence the reason teams like this have losing records. St. Louis is a great home team as always. Take the Cardinals.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (-3) over Atlanta
Seahawks got us another pre-season winner last night and tonight we turn to a team in desperate need of a win, even a pre-season win! Houston had an abysmal 4-12 season last year, hired a new Head Coach in former Penn State headman Bill O’Brien and got annihilated by Arizona in their pre-season opener 32-0 by Arizona! That is not the way the Texans typically perform in the pre-season. In fact, Houston has gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 pre-season games and are a perfect 3-0 in week 2 of the pre-season the last three seasons. It is the Texans first home pre-season game and with a new head coach and quarterback and coming off a 32-0 shellacking last week we expect Houston to bounce back big tonight. Take the Texans!
Jonathan Young
Baltimore Orioles + 114
One of the most contrasting pitchers in all of baseball gets the nod the the Orioles as Ubaldo Jiminez takes the mound against the Indians tonight. Note the word ‘Tonight’, the splits between Jiminez’ Day and Night starts are dissimilar to say the very least.
He is 4-8 on the season with a 4.51 ERA in 19 starts so far in 2014. In 6 ‘Day’ starts this year, Jiminez is 1-5 with a staggering 9.22 ERA and 2.16 WHIP. Compare that to his 13 ‘Night’ starts, where he has gone 3-3 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 78 IP. Opponents have hit just .216 off Jiminez in those games under the lights.
The Indians will give the ball to Carlos Carrasco who will be making his sixth start of the season and is coming off a 5 IP shutout of the Yankees. As a starter in this season, Carrasco has struggled going 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Prior to his last outing, Carrasco had given up at least 4 ER in 4 starts. I really do foresee this Oriole offense to get on base against Carrasco who has been guilty of struggling with his command when pitching from the stretch.
Baltimore have gone 3-0 in Jimenez’ last 3 starts and they haven’t lost consecutive games since the 28/29th June 2014. The Orioles have hit .290 in their last 7 games whilst averaging over 6 runs per game in that span. I believe the value is on the road team tonight as a slight underdog with a better pitcher on the mound and an offense that has been very productive over the past few weeks.
LT Profits
Brewers vs Dodogers
Pick: Under 6
This total between the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers is low, but there is a very good reason for it. The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw is favored to win his second straight Cy Young Award and third overall as he simply has video-game numbers right now at 14-2 with an astonishing 1.78 ERA, 0.86 WHIP a .201 batting average allowed and an unheard of ratio of 163 strikeouts vs. 19 walks in 136.1 innings! He has 11 straight Quality starts while allowing one run of less in nine of those outings, including a no-hitter. However his Dodgers could have trouble scoring runs off of Yovani Gallardo of the Milwaukee Brewers. Gallardo has allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts with two scoreless outings and he has four straight Quality Starts vs. the Dodgers. The ‘under’ is 16-5-2 in the Dodgers’ last 23 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.
SPORTS WAGERS
HAMILTON +155 over Calgary
Losing does take a toll but the good news for the Tiger-Cats is that they are huge favorites to make the playoffs in the East despite their 1-5 record. This league plays 18 games a season and most experts agree that the “real” season does not begin until Labour Day weekend. Furthermore, the Tiger-Cats have already played every team from the West and that should have them well-prepped to beat up on teams from the East. Aside from its opener in Saskatchewan, Hamilton was in a position to win every other game they’ve played this year. The Ti-Cats are without question the class of the Eastern Conference. The mental mistakes this team has made pretty much cost them every one of their losses. Eliminate dumb penalties and untimely turnovers and Hamilton could easily be 5-1 with wins already over B.C., Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg. Hamilton leads the league in penalties and penalty yards (89 penalties for a staggering 680 yards), which is another example of how close they are to being a force. Talent wise, Hamilton is as good as any team in the CFL and probably more talented. QB Dan LeFevour is not only getting better each quarter, he’s getting very comfortable out there. LeFevour and the rest of the squad are on the verge of a major run up the standings, as this is not a 1-5 team.
By contrast, Calgary is not as good as their 5-1 record suggests. They were extremely lucky in at least two wins (over Hamilton and Edmonton) and in their victory over Toronto they were outgained by 71 yards. Stamps QB, Bo Levi Mitchell’s ranks 6th among the eight regular QB’s in passing yards. His completion percentage ranks 7th out of the eight regular QB’s and that’s after playing four of their six games against the East. Additionally, the Stampeders had an easy game last week against Ottawa and they have Ottawa again on deck next week. After that, the Stamps play back-to-back games against Edmonton beginning Labour Day weekend and this looks like one of those tricky spots where the Stamps could take a breather, much like the Eskies did last night in Ottawa. Even at their very best, Calgary would still be in very tough against this talented host. Keep the points, we’re not interested in them. We see the Tiger-Cats as the superior team in a better situational spot taking back significant juice in their own barn. Tiger-Cats get off the mattress here and finally win a game they deserve to win.
NOTE: We’re passing on Montreal and Saskatchewan but much prefer taking the points to spotting them if you must.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +2½ +100 over PITTSBURGH
The Steelers lost their preseason opener against the Giants and their defense was gashed for 170 yards on the ground. Pittsburgh is thin to begin with on the defensive line and will now have to deal with a Bills’ team that loves to run and that has the weapons to do so. Pittsburgh will use Big Ben for a couple of series or perhaps the entire first quarter but we say so what. Roethlisberger threw just two passes last week and he’s not a guy that puts much emphasis on preseason anyway. Roethisberger is not one of those guys that goes out of his way for anyone, meaning he doesn’t work with younger QB’s to help them get better. Steelers Coach, Mike Tomlin had an outstanding preseason record when he first started coaching but that has changed. Pittsburgh has dropped five preseason games in a row. The Steelers went 0-4 last year and they are 0-1 this year. The QB rotation will feature Roethisberger, Landry Jones and Bruce Gradkowski but it really doesn’t matter because Big Ben will be their opening day starter and he acts like it.
Buffalo has already played two preseason games and they have a nice competition brewing at QB with E.J. Manuel, Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel. All three have played significant minutes in the preseason and that figures to continue in this one. We also like Buffalo’s depth. Once the starters are removed, Buffalo’s backups (linebackers) have been just as good and they’re very capable of playing on the first team offense or defense. One has to like the direction of the Bills. They appear focused and only took five penalties last week in their win over Carolina. They’ve had an extra day of preparation and that healthy QB battle plays very well in the preseason. Bills outright but we’ll take the points because we don’t have to lay any juice in doing so.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +134 over COLORADO
Anytime we can take-back a price like this one against the team with the worst record in the majors, we’ll have a close look for sure. Do you really want to lay significant juice with a team that has three wins in their last 15 games and is now without Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki? We think not. If that’s not bad enough, Jordan Lyles is not a pitcher to be spotting a price like this one either. Lyles has 20 wins in 79 career starts. He brings a career ERA of 5.06 into this one along with a career WHIP of 1.43 and career BAA of .277. This season Lyles has a BB/K split of 30/58 in 80.1 innings over 14 starts. Last year, Lyles went 7-9 with a 5.59 ERA in 142 innings for the Astros. A horrid March led to AAA demotion; May return brought little improvement. Only June (3.53/3.63 ERA/xERA) hinted at upside. Lyles 2H disaster was fueled by poor control and vanishing K’s. He lacks plus offerings and while his age helps, he has work to do before he can be trusted in this role, especially at this venue pitching for the Rockies.
The injury to Homer Bailey opened the door for Dylan Axelrod. With Tony Cingrani, who opened the season in the Cincinnati rotation, on the Triple-A DL, recent acquisition Dylan Axelrod now gets another chance. Axelrod had a 24 K/5 BB split in 35.1 IP in his five starts since joining AAA-Louisville, after struggling with his control earlier with AAA-Charlotte in the White Sox organization. Axelrod also has a .209 batting average against and 0.91 WHIP at Louisville. His career skills and 4.76 xERA in 198 innings spread across the previous three seasons (2011-13) suggest he has been unable to translate his minor league success to MLB but he’s not the one spotting -145 here. That makes Axelrod and the Reds a much better option taking back a price than Lyles and the Rockies spotting one. A change of scenery may just be what the doctor ordered for Axelrod. Overlay.
CLEVELAND -½ (1st 5 innings) +109 over Baltimore
For whatever reason, Progressive Field has been a house of horrors for the Orioles and that continued with an extra-inning loss last night. A fresh Carlos Carrasco, who only has 70 innings under his belt this season, most in relief, will now make his second start since being demoted at the end of April. Carrasco made four starts in April, going 0-3 while allowing four ER or more in each start. He was then moved to the bullpen, where he thrived in 43 IP, with a 2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8.2 K’s/9 and outstanding control. On August 10, he made his first start since April, throwing five shutout innings, allowing two hits, striking out four with no walks issued. Carrasco has nasty stuff. He has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 55%/15%/30%. He uses five pitches with regularity and he’ll throw them in any count. He average fastball velocity is 94.8 MPH and he’ll change speeds frequently. His extreme talent has never been in question and now at the age of 27 and showing signs of becoming the dominant starter that he was projected to be, perhaps he’s figured it out. Carlos Carrasco is too talented to give up on yet.
Free agent acquisition Ubaldo Jimenez has been an expensive disaster, with the worst walk percentage in baseball. Jimenez's AL-leading 63 walks translate to 5.4 BB/9 so he may not be long for the rotation if he cannot control the strike zone. Remarkably, the Orioles have won Jimenez’s last four starts but you can’t keep winning at this level when you can’t throw strikes. Jimenez’s 5.42 xERA is one of the worst marks in the game. In his first start back after a month long DL stint, Jimenez had a groundball/fly-ball split of 6%/67% (1 groundball against 17 fly-balls) and a swing and miss rate of just 6%. Fortunately for him the game was in St. Louis but this venue does not play well for pitchers that can’t throw strikes or keep the ball on the ground. Indians figure to score some runs early.
Chase Diamond
Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys +1.5
This game features the 1-0 Ravens and the 0-1 Cowboys. The Cowboys need this game very bad and it's at home. There are alot of bruised egos after getting killed by the Chargers last week expect a bounce back game where these guys go all out just for the win I don't see the Ravens being as hungry. Public is pounding the Ravens today at a rate of 64% but I believe they will get buried tonight.
Steve Janus
Tampa Bay Rays -126
This is a great spot to jump on the Rays as a relatively small home favorite. Tampa Bay has won 3 straight and 7 of their last 9 overall, while the Yankees are in the midst of a 5-game losing streak. The Rays starting pitching has been absolutely dominant during their recent hot stretch. Over their last 9 games they have a ridiculous 0.90 ERA and I look for the starting pitching to be the difference in this one.
Tampa Bay will be sending out Drew Smyly to make his home debut since coming over from the Tigers. Smyly comes in off one of his best starts of the season, where he allowed just 3 hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings at Texas. While New York will counter with Shane Greene, who has a 2.89 ERA over 7 starts, I look for him to struggle. Greene comes in off a lengthy 8 days of rest and will have the added pressure of pitching in front of pitching in front of a lot of friends and family as he grew up just 90-minutes away from St. Petersburg.
Key Trends - Yankees are 16-35 in their last 51 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 4-13 in their last 17 against the AL East, 1-4 in their last 5 against a left-handed starter and 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in their last 7 as a favorite of -110 to -150, 10-2 in their last 12 against the AL East, 5-1 in their last 6 against a right-handed starter and 10-4 after scoring 5+ runs.
System - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after a game without an extra base hit are a mere 14-40 (26%) against the money line since 1997.
Dave Price
Los Angeles Angels -155
Texas has practically become a dead fade with losses in 40 of its last 52 games. It's lost eight straight to the Angels, including five in a row at home. The Halos are a near-perfect 10-1 in their last 11 road games versus clubs with a home winning percentage less than .400. The Angels are also 9-1 in their last 10 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200. They are in good hands with Shoemaker, who tossed a gem in winning his only start versus Texas. The Angels are 10-4 in his 14 career starts, including 4-0 in his four division starts. Texas' Lewis has struggled at home where he has a 7.26 ERA. He's also struggled in division play, posting a 7.64 ERA. Shoemaker has a 2.84 ERA in divisional starts this season. The Rangers are 1-5 in Lewis' last six home starts.
Will Rogers
Jets vs. Bengals
Play: 41½
The New York Jets offense was one of the worst in the NFL last year, but with Mike Vick and Geno Smith battling for the starters job, we could see New York put some points on the board in the pre-season. The Jets are in Cincinnati tonight, taking on a Bengals team that surrendered a whopping 41 points in a loss at Kansas City in Week 1. I'm expecting to see a shootout in Cincy tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Backup Quarterbacks - Mike Vick and Jason Campbell are each listed as the #2 quarterbacks on the depth chart, but both have plenty of experience starting in the NFL. Campbell threw a pair of TD passes in Week 1, while Vick showed he's still got lightning speed.
2. Officiating - It was no accident that all four of last night's games went over the total, as offense were aided by flags, with officials calling pass interference on the slightest contact.
3. X-Factor - The Bengals have seen the total go over in four of their last five pre-season games.
Jack Jones
Tampa Bay Rays -130
The Tampa Bay Rays have become the fourth team in MLB history to get back to .500 after being 18 games under at one point in the season. I've ridden them a lot lately, and I'm going to continue to do so because this team just doesn't have any quit in them.
Drew Smyly is one of the most underrated starters in baseball and got a lot of grief because he was part of the trade for David Price. He has posted a 3.96 ERA in 20 starts this season, but a 3.50 ERA in his last three. Smyly pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings in his last start against Texas, and he's 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in one career start against New York.
The Yankees are stuck in a tailspin that they cannot get out of. They have lost five in a row coming into this one while scoring a combined seven runs in the process. Shane Green has pitched well for them in limited action, but he is being overvalued as a result.
Tampa Bay is 19-3 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday over the last two seasons. The Yankees are 16-35 in their last 51 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rays are 19-8 in the last 27 home meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.
John Ryan
Mariners vs. Tigers
Play: Over 6½
The simulator shows a high probability that more than 7 runs will be scored in this game and that one of these teams may score the posted total on their own merit. Detroit is a solid money making 21-9 OVER (+11.4 Units) in home games facing AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season; 23-7 OVER (+15.9 Units) in home games facing an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 21-8 OVER (+12.8 Units) in home games facing teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 25-11 OVER (+13.5 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. I had Seattle Friday for my 7th straight MLB winner and they hammered the Tigers 7-2 and were installed as +125 DOGS. I have been on record since June stating that Seattle is that one team ranked in the Top-5 of my power ratings that can win the second Wild Card. With their starting pitching, they are a very tough opponent for any playoff matchup. Detroit is fighting for their playoff lives after blowing a very comfortable lead, but are in a solid situation to score runs today. The Tigers bullpen has been just horrible and have posted a 5.38 ERA with a 1.616 WHIP in 60 home games this season. Seattle is 6-1 batting 0.276 with a 0.328 OBP that will continue facing David Price. Moreover, the Detroit lineup will get to Felix based on the SIM projections and this game will easily go 'OVER' the posted total of 6 1/2 runs.
Hollywood Sports
Yankees at Rays
Pick: Under
Tampa Bay (61-61) enters this game coming after their 5-0 win against the Yankees in the opening game of this series. The Rays have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory. The Under is also 5-0-1 in Tampa Bay's last 6 games after allowing two runs or less in their last contest. New York (61-59) has played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. Additionally, the Under is 8-1-2 in the Yankees' last 11 games after allowing at least five runs in their last contest.