Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 17

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Dallas Cowboys at Arizona CardinalsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Arizona CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Good spot to back the Cardinals coming off their impressive 17-0 shutout win against Green Bay, and they take on a road weary Dallas team on Saturday playing their third road game in as many weeks. After playing the early Hall of Fame Game against Miami in Ohio, they trekked back across the country to play on the west coast against Oakland, then now travel to the desert to take on these Cardinals. Dallas didn't look good in either of their first two games - especially on offense where they put up total yardage of 266 and 271 yards. Dallas was severely out-gained in both games (which they split 1-1) and if not for forcing two turnovers in each contest it could have looked much worse. New head coaches tend to play for the "win" more often than not and Arians certainly had his team fired up last week in the shutout win. Taking him in his home debut seems like the right move on Saturday night.

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

When the Giants send staff ace Matt Cain to the mound against Henderson Alvarez and the Marlins in Miami this Saturday, Cain will toe the rubber in great KW form with 25 strikeouts and 4 walks his last four starts. Cain is also 4-0 his last four away team starts during August. With the Fish floundering at 7-12 on Saturdays this season, look for the Giants to improve to 14-7 as a visitor in this series here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Hollywood Sports

Denver at Seattle
Play: Under

Denver (1-0) does not need to accomplish much in terms of timing and execution when it comes to Peyton Manning and the first-string offense. This unit has looked outstanding in training camp -- and Manning played only for one series in their 10-6 win at San Francisco last week. Frankly, every series that Manning plays this preseason risks an injury to his neck so he is not likely to take too many snaps in this one. After Manning, there is a big drop off in quality and experience for the Broncos' signal callers with second-year QB Brock Osweiler and rookie Zac Dysert. Remember, it was a 7-yard fumble recovery by the defense that accounted for their lone touchdown. Denver only managed 220 yards of offense last week -- but their defense looked outstanding by limiting the 49ers offense to just 287 total yards. Seattle (1-0) also excelled on defense last week by limiting the Chargers to only 238 total yards en route to their 31-10 victory. That game finished Over the 36-point Total -- but the Seahawks have played 5 of their 6 preseason games Under the Total following a preseason game that went Over in the Pete Carroll era. Additionally, Carroll-coached teams in the NFL have played 12 of 16 preseason games Under the Total following a preseason game where they covered the point spread. Expect this to be a defensive struggle with both Super Bowl contenders loathe to show much of anything on offense. Take the Under.

Jimmy Boyd

Oakland A's -135

We are getting a lot of value on Oakland today when they send Daniel Straily to the mound. Straily's record is not an accurate reflection of how well he has pitched this season. In his last three starts he has posted a 2.81 ERA, but has failed to receive run support from his teammates. That won't be an issue today as Oakland is scoring 5.6 runs per game over their past seven games with a .274 batting average.

The Indians are in a major hitting slump. Over their past seven games they have a .196 batting average and have scored a mere 3.9 runs per game. Ubaldo Jimenez has posted a 4.11 ERA this season and he has a 1.500 WHIP on the road. With Cleveland struggling at the plate, and Straily pitching so well right now, the A's are in easy call in this game.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees +122

The Yankees realize the importance of this series and came out with a purpose putting up 10 runs on Friday night. We note that since 2011 the Yankees are a perfect 9-0 as a road dog off a road win by 5 or more runs. Boston has lost 4 of the last 6 as a home favorite off a home loss by 5 or more runs. There is also an 80% system that plays against home favorites like the Sox that are off a home favored loss and scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits while making 3 or more errors. The Yankees are averaging over 7 runs per game the past week compared to Boston at 3 runs. This game is a mirror image from a game between these 2 earlier in the season where the Yankees beat Boston 5-2 with Kuroda out pitching J. Lackey. Kuroda has 8 straight quality road starts in August the past few years and has a 1.23 era in his last 3 starts. Look for the Yankees to take another from Boston.

Jack Jones

Cincinnati Reds -137

The Cincinnati Reds have won eight of their last 10 games overall heading into this Game 3 showdown with Milwaukee. They had a huge finish to win the NL Central last year, and they're in the midst of another one in 2013.

Ace Mat Latos gets the ball Saturday and I'll gladly back him and the Reds (69-53) at this price against the hapless Brewers (53-69). Latos is 12-3 with a 3.04 ERA in 24 starts, 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 14 road starts, and 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA in his last three starts.

Yovani Gallardo is no match for Latos. Milwaukee's right-hander is 8-9 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 23 starts this season, 4-5 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 12 home starts, and 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.840 WHIP in his last three outings overall.

Latos is 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Gallardo is 6-6 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 17 career starts against Cincinnati.

The Reds are 30-11 in Latos' last 41 starts as a favorite. Cincinnati is 20-7 in Latos' last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Brewers are 10-27 in Gallardo's last 37 starts as an underdog. Milwaukee is 1-7 in Gallardo's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Reds Saturday.

Jim Feist

Kansas City Royals +175

Kansas City continues to roll along, with the Royals 17-6 in their last 23 games. Starter Wade Davis has been on a tear, too, with a 2-0 record and a 1.96 ERA his last three starts. The Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 road games and 11-4 against a right-handed starter. Detroit starter Doug Fister has a losing record against KC and the Tigers are 2-6 in Fister's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Art Aronson

Seattle vs. Texas
Play: Under 8

Felix Hernandez (12-5, 2.28 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Hernandez is coming off an absolute gem, scattering four hits with one walk while striking out nine in his team's eventual 2-0 victory over the Brewers on Sunday. "The Kings" has now allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts and sports a ridiculously tiny 1.05 ERA in that span. Hernandez will be throwing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder today no doubt, as he's a sub-par 0-2 with a pedestrian 4.66 ERA in three starts vs. the Rangers. That said, he'll be brining his very respectable 7-2, 2.17 ERA road record into Texas to throw opposite Martin Perez (5-3, 3.44 ERA) who is coming off a complete game in Houston on Sunday, giving up one earned run off four hits with two walks to go along with eight strikeouts. The only run came on a solo shot in the ninth frame and Perez has now won back-to-back outings, giving up just four runs over his last three starts spanning 22 2/3's frames with 19 K's over that span. Here's a perfect opponent to keep the momentum rolling against and improve upon his already sparkling 1.75 ERA home record this season. "Recent performance" plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and there's no question that each of these starters comes in with a ton of momentum. I believe runs will be at a premium in this matchup and will recommend a second look at the "under".

Justin Bay

Royals / Tigers Under 8

Wade Davis
- Last game vs. DET: 6.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1.35 WHIP, .320 OBA
- Career vs. DET: 3.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .248 OBA
- Away: 6.29 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, .335 OBA
- Tigers hitters vs. Davis in his career: .264 BA

Doug Fister
- Last game vs. KAN: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1.17 WHIP, .250 OBA
- Career vs. KAN: 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .256 OBA
- Home: 3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .269 OBA
- Royals hitters vs. Fister in his career: .251 BA

Yankees / Red Sox Under 8½

Hiroki Kuroda
- Last game vs. BOS: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0.86 WHIP, .208 OBA
- Career vs. BOS: 3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .276 OBA
- Away: 2.98 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .240 OBA
- Red Sox hitters vs. Kuroda in his career: .286 BA

John Lackey
- Last game vs. NYY: 6.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1.58 WHIP, .370 OBA
- Career vs. NYY: 4.73 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .283 OBA
- Home: 2.15 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .242 OBA
- Yankee hitters vs. Lackey in his career: .266 BA

Bruce Marshall

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

All of a sudden, the Cubs have become a thorn in the side of a handful of teams, especially the Cardinals, against whom the Cubbies are playing the role of spoiler quite nicely. The latest installment of their irritation to the Redbirds came on Friday in a 7-0 romp paced by seven shutout innings from Jake Arrieta and solid mop-up work by the bullpen. That now three wins in four tries for Chicago against St. Louis since last weekend, temporarily putting a damper on the Cards' hopes of chasing down the Pirates in the NL Central. But the Redbirds are having trouble with almost everybody these days, dropping 15 of their last 22, and now they must face ultra-consistent Cubs starter Travis Wood, who has an impressive 20 quality starts (tied for second-best in the bigs) entering Saturday's matinee. Cards starter Joe Kelly has pitched fairly well himself the past couple of weeks, but was shaky last Sunday vs. the Cubs when conceding four runs and six hits in just 5 1/2 innings of work at Busch Stadium.

Charlie Scott

Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Tennessee Titans +3

A key factor in handicapping Preseason is finding Teams motivation and strategy going into each game. For Tonight's game Tennessee needs and wants a win. The Tennessee Coach & QB are on the Hot Seat this Season by the Owner and Fans, as they come off a Loss to the Redskins last week. Meanwhile, watching HBO's "Hard Knocks", the Bengals are off an easy Win at Atlanta and seem more concerned with not getting players injured and the players just getting their work & reps in.

Will Rogers

Colorado vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore

I tried with the Orioles last night and surprisingly lost as the Rockies scored in each of the last five innings, hitting four home runs. However, for many of the same reasons as yesterday, I'm still recommending Baltimore today. I can't see Colorado winning back to back games on the road.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Homefield Advantage - Even with yesterday's win, the Rockies are still just 22-38 on the road this season, averaging 3.4 runs per game. That includes now a 3-16 mark when priced at +150 or above. They are just 2-9 their last 11 road games overalll.

2. Bud Norris - Since coming over from Houston, Norris has pitched very well for Baltimore. They've won all three of his starts as he's turned in a 2.65 ERA and 1.235 WHIP. Norris did face Colorado earlier this year, and held them to just two runs on eight hits over seven innings.

3. X-Factor - Even with yesterday's win, the Rockies are just 4-12 in Interleague Play this season.

Jesse Schule

Dodgers vs. Phillies
Pick: Dodgers

The Dodgers have won nine in a row, and 14-of-15 games in August. Public money is pouring in on L.A., and the Dodgers are a 2-1 road favorite with Kershaw on the mound in Philly tonight.

I normally don't like to pile on the bandwagon when the public drives the price up, but after trying to find a reason not to bet on L.A. tonight, I simply can't come up with any evidence that would support a potential upset.

Kershaw (11-7, 1.88 ERA) owns the lowest earned run average in the major leagues, and he's delivered nine consecutive quality starts. He went eight innings allowing a pair of runs (one earned) on just three hits in an 8-2 win over Tampa Bay his last time out.

He also swings the bat well, and he had a pair of RBIs in the victory over the Rays. Having a quality hitter in the pitcher's spot is just one more advantage for the Dodgers tonight.

Kyle Kendrick will toe the rubber for the home team, and he hasn't been very sharp at all lately. Kendrick (10-9, 4.48 ERA) was roughed up for six runs on 11 hits over just 4 1/3 innings in an 6-0 loss to the Nationals his last time out.

He lost his only previous start versus the Dodgers this year, and he didn't miss many bats allowing four runs on 10 hits over six innings.

Yasiel Puig was 3-for-3 with a triple in that game. Several players in the Dodgers lineup have had success against Kendrick, including Skip Schumaker who has hit .375 with a pair of home runs against him in his career.

Eventually the Dodgers are going to have to lose .. it just doesn't look like tonight's gonna be the night.

Bob Balfe

Arizona Cardinals -3

Could there be anything worst than going to a preseason game that does not count in 105 degree weather? The roof may be closed, but being out in the desert can drain players before they even show up for the game. Most players are not even close to being in game shape yet. The Cardinals look like they are going to have two all star cover corners and to me it is always the same story with Tony Romo. I really like Arizona and the depth they have at the running back spot this year. This should be a solid afternoon game. Take the Cardinals.