Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -109
With Friday's defeat, the Nationals have now lost 15 of their last 18 against the Braves. I expect their struggles with Atlanta to continue this evening. Stephen Strasburg has struggled on the road where he's 1-5 with a 4.88 ERA. The Nationals are 1-5 in Strasburg's last 6 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a winning record and 2-5 in his last 7 starts versus the Braves. Atlanta is 4-0 in Mike Minor's last 4 starts overall and 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Washington. Minor has a more than respectable 3.16 home ERA this season. The Braves have won 21 of their their last 27 overall and 53 of their last 72 at home. Take Atlanta.
Sean Higgs
Blue Jays / Rays Over 8½
JA Happ hasn't been sharp on the road posting a 6.85 ERA in 5 starts to go along with a .302 BA Against. Jays are clubbing lefties at a .277 clip. Hernandez doesn't have pretty numbers either with an ERA near 5. The Jays have gone over in 7 of their last 8 on the road. We will look for a lot of offense tonight and go OVER the total.
Jeff Alexander
Tampa Bay Rays -146
The Tampa Bay Rays get the call as my free play due to their success at home and their dominance of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays are 47-23 in their last 70 home games and 38-16 in their last 54 against the Jays. They are 42-13 in their last 55 home games against Toronto. Plus, the Blue Jays are 1-6 in Happ's last 7 starts while the Rays are 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 home starts. Bet the Rays.
Doug Upstone
Pittsburgh Pirates -157
For Saturday, PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like Pittsburgh, a National League team with batting average of .250 or worse on the season, against opponent with a cold starting pitcher (Trevor Cahill) whose WHIP is 2.000 or higher over his last three starts. Since the movie 'Up in the Air' was released, this baseball system is 42-9, 82.4 percent.
Bryan Power
Cleveland vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The Indians swept the A's earlier this season at home in a four-game set, but Oakland gained a measure of revenge last night with a 3-2 victory against Cleveland's ace Justin Masterson. I expect the momentum to carry over into tonight where once again I feel the home team will emerge victorious.....
Homefield advantage has been big when these teams meet. Not only did Cleveland sweep the four games earlier this season at Progressive Field, but Oakland has now beaten them five straight times here at the O.co Coliseum. The Athletics are now 37-22 at home this year while Cleveland has a losing road record at 27-32. Perhaps most disconcerting if you're a Tribe fan is that your starter Ubaldo Jimenez has an 0-12 team start record away from home in the second half of the season the last two years. Over the last two season, Oakland is 60-28 as a home favorite!
Jimenez has seen the team lose his last two starts, both against inferior opponents (Marlins, Angels). Cleveland was outscored 17-2 in the two games. Opposing Jimenez will be Daniel Straily, who comes off a strong showing in Toronto earlier this week where he went 7.3 innings and allowed only one run. I like the home team's chances in this one.
Big Kat Sports
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners will look for back to back wins over the Texas Rangers when the two teams meet tonight at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The Mariners took Game 1 of the series last night 3-1 behind an impressive pitching performance by Hisashi Iwakuma, who went 7 strong innings and an 8th inning home run from Kyle Seager that would seal the victory for the M’s. Today Seattle will turn to Felix Hernandez, who has been his usual dominant self this season. He has posted a 12-5 record with a 2.28 ERA and comes into tonight’s contest a loser in only 1 of his last 14 starts. The Rangers will counter with Martin Perez, who has been pretty good, himself for Texas this season. He is 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA and he tossed his first career complete game in his last start, a 6-1 win at Houston.
Here a few trends that have us leaning towards Seattle on the road tonight:
•Mariners are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. American League West.
•Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog.
•Mariners are 4-1 in Hernandez’s last 5 starts vs. American League West.
•Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
•Rangers are 3-8 in their last 11 Saturday games.
Pair those trends with the fact that the Mariners have won 4 of the last 5 head to head meetings between these two teams and we’ll take them along with King Felix at the plus price tonight to get the win on the road.
Dave Essler
Minnesota Twins +1.5
Simply can't follow the lemmings here. Perhaps should have in the Dodgers game(s) last night. Embarrassing to say the least. In hindsight leaving the Rangers small loss with the Patriots game would have been the smart thing to do, and of course it would have protected a streak for sales, but hindsight is always perfect. In this game, everyone is all over Chris Sale. Well, in his one game at Target Field this season he was hit pretty hard. If anyone has seen and can hit him, it's a division rival like the Twins, who are among the league leaders in hitting over the last week. Obviously Chicago hasn't seen Albers, who has yet to allow a run. He has given up a few flyball outs, but Target Field is not a hitters park, and there should be a pretty reasonable breeze blowing in tonight. I get the love for Sale, but the White Sox as a team are 19-42 on the road, and 11-18 against a left handed starter. I get that the White Sox bullpen has been pretty solid lately, but last night, Veal, Jones, and Reed all pitched an inning. The Twins are 8 games better than the White Sox this season, so one player (Sale) simply isn't going to persuade me to take a road favorite. What I really wanted to do, given that this should be a low scoring game, is split this between the ML and the RL.
Andrew Lange
Seattle at Texas
Play: Under
I've used Texas' Martin Perez a number of ways of late – side, run/line, total, and team total. And as I said before, hard throwing, left-handed ground ballers don't come around too often. Based on FanGraphs' GB%, Perez would rank among the top 20 in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. Perez has been flawless his last three outings (1.59 ERA) and with an extra day of rest, I look for him to have another solid outing against the Mariners. Felix Hernandez is very quietly putting up another amazing season (2.23 ERA and 2.61 xFIP). And it isn’t just racking up gems at Safeco. The King boasts a 2.17 ERA in 13 road starts. There was once a time when playing the Rangers, especially at home, under 8 would be a tough sell. Well, things have changed. Texas is 15-24-5 O/U in games lined 8 or lower and in Arlington 2-7-1 O/U. That's the way we'll look with tonight's contest.
John Ryan
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Washington Nationals
The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. The division is over and the Braves will win it easily. Washington has had a disappointing season and their offensive woes continue to be problematic. However, if they played as well against strong pitching as they would against weaker pones, they just might be in the hunt. Washington is a solid 17-8 (+12.6 Units) against the money line facing a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% over the last 3 seasons. They are also a solid 18-10 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Despite their offensive anemia, Washington does their best against LH starters batting 0.249 with a 0.310 OBP and scoring 4.1 RPG. Strasburg starts for Washington and he is coming off his first career complete game shutout against the Phillies. He has posted a 2.74 ERA and a 0.870 WHIP over his last three starts. Minor starts for Atlanta and he has not done all that well against Washington posting a 4.30 ERA with a 1.487 WHIP in 7 career starts. Take the Nationals.
Jeffrey Brandes
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Under 8½
Pitchers:
TORONTO BLUE JAYS: JA HAPP (L) ERA: 5.11 W/L: 2-2
TAMPA BAY RAYS: FAUSTO CARMONA (R) ERA: 4.95 W/L: 6-12
Key Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games at home
Brian Blessing
Packers at Rams
Pick: Under
Not much has changed since last week for Green Bay. It's all about keeping Aaaron Rodgers upright and staying healthy on the offensive line. The Pack will be very bland in their approach to this game and the Rams QB rotation isn't scaring anyone. Play the under in St. Louis on Saturday night.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +116 over St. Louis
Joe Kelley has started just seven games for the Cardinals after spending most of the season in the bullpen. As a starter last year and went 5-7 with a 3.53 ERA in 107 IP. "Pedestrian" is the best way to describe these skills. His lack of disaster starts looks encouraging but there is a big difference between disaster avoidance and dominance. Regardless, he doesn't know how to miss bats, and that severely limits his upside. In four starts over the past month covering just 23 innings, Kelly has walked 11 batters and struck out 11. Kelly has a troubling 1.39 WHIP this season and an even more troubling 5.06 xERA. He’s survived so far because of a lucky 88% strand rate but that luck is sure to run out. Additionally, the Cardinals are beating up on everyone like they were earlier in the season. St. Louis has lost 15 of its past 22 games including the opener here yesterday by a score of 7-0.
We absolutely get the superior pitcher here in Travis Wood. Wood is coming off a four-hit, eight inning gem in Cincinnati and at home he’s posted a 3.08 ERA in 14 games started. Wood has allowed just 118 hits in 153 innings for a BAA of just .213. His strikeout rate is trending the right way and so his groundball rate. At one time in his minor league career, he won the ERA title with a 1.21 ERA and he did it by mastering a nasty cutter that he’s relying on at this level too. Wood will face a Cardinals team that is struggling right now that has won only 12 of 31 games against southpaws. Wood is an under the radar, outstanding southpaw.
N.Y. Mets +111 over SAN DIEGO
The best pitch in baseball is still and will always be strike one. Edinson Volquez has an 0-1 count less than any pitcher in baseball. His talent has never been in question but he simply can’t and never has been able to throw strikes consistently and it gets worse as the season progresses. Over his past 27 innings, Volquez has walked 14 and struck out 17. At Petco Park this season he’s 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA. He comes into this start with an ugly 1.62 WHIP, meaning that there has been an average of 2 runners on base every inning he’s pitched this year. Volquez is about the riskiest pitcher in the majors when spotting a tag and you can triple that in the month of August. Over the past four seasons including this year, Voquez has an August ERA of 7.25 over 14 starts and a BAA of .316. San Diego has lost three in a row and eight of its past 10 and Volquez is not the guy to get them right-sided.
Not too many pitchers have been able to contain the Dodgers over the past two months but Jenrry Menjia did just that when he held them to two earned runs in six full innings. Since joining the rotation in late July, Menjia has been nothing short of brilliant. He’s made just four starts but has a 58% groundball rate and a strikeout/BB split of 22/3. Mejia is a former top prospect that had his career derailed by injuries. Fully healthy now with plenty of gas in his tank, he’s showing us why he was so highly regarded in the minors. This dude can pitch and is perhaps the best buy-low target in the majors because not many have heard of him. Wrong side favored and the best value on today’s card.
N.Y. Yankees +119 over BOSTON
Wow. The Yankees have gone berserk. New York is crushing the field in every offensive category over the past five games. During that span, the Yanks are hitting .386, they’ve gone deep eight times and have scored 41 runs with a SLG % of 562. This team is seeing beach balls right now and they figure to continue the onslaught against John Lackey. Lackey was dealing it earlier in the year with some of the best home stats in baseball (1.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at Fenway) up until late July but his numbers on the road were not close to that and he’s been scuffing lately no matter where he pitches. Remember, Lackey missed all of last year and was whacked in 2011 with a 6.41 ERA over 28 starts. He’s no youngster either and we’re seeing definite signs of erosion and fatigue. Lackey has been tagged for 42 hits over his past 32 frames. Even the Astros got to him two starts back. During that stretch, Lackey has a 1.47 WHIP, a 4.96 ERA and a HR/F rate of 14%. In other words, Lackey is not fooling anyone right now and facing the hottest hitting team in the majors is unlikely to change that.
There’s more good news with New York’s most reliable starter taking the hill. Hiroki Kuroda just keeps on winning games and dominating the opposition. Kuroda has an elite groundball rate of 61%. In 155 frames, he’s walked 29 batters for one of the lowest BB ratio in the majors. He’s constantly ahead of batters and he might also have the highest baseball IQ if any pitcher in the major leagues. Kuroda knows every hitters weakness. He pounds the ball down and in or down and away and he changes speeds like no other. He gets through innings quickly and efficiently and has posted a 0.50 WHIP over his past two starts and an overall WHIP of 1.04. Boston has lost three in a row and six of eight. They’ve scored three runs or less in three straight and they are the only team in the majors that were contained at the Rogers Center, where they scored eight runs in three games. Very hot versus very cold with the vastly superior pitcher going easily gets this call.
SPORTS WAGERS
SASKATCHEWAN -12 over Montreal
The Montreal Alouettes have no life in them whatsoever. After making some changes prior to last week’s showdown with the Argonauts, the Als came out and got buried at home by an embarrassing 38-13. Once reliable and feared, age has caught up to Anthony Calvillo and like the team he plays for, he looks almost lost out there. The Als have serious injuries piling up all around them. Their defense is atrocious and they can no longer survive a shootout because their offense cannot keep pace. They Als have a daunting task here in facing the Riders on the road in perhaps the most difficult venue in the CFL for the opposition to win at.
It would be one thing if Saskatchewan went into Calgary last week and emerged victorious because that would have created a letdown situation here but that didn’t occur. Instead, the Riders fell behind early, they were completely dominated in the most hyped game of the CFL this year and they left Calgary with their tails between their legs. In other words, the Riders are in a foul mood after being embarrassed by the Stamps. Perhaps that’s a good thing because every CFL fan watched that game. It was to the CFL what New England/Indianapolis, in the days of Peyton Manning, was to the NFL and the Riders were humiliated. That loss has them undervalued here. This is still the best team in the CFL with the best offense, the best defense and the best special teams. Last week was a good lesson for these Riders to not get too high and that you have to pay a price every week. Expect the Riders to come out focused, intense and with a purpose. Unfortunately for Montreal, they couldn’t have picked a worse time to face the Riders in Saskatchewan.
B.C. LIONS -3 over Calgary
This is another great showdown between two top-tier clubs. We just don’t like the spot for Calgary after that extremely emotional win last week over the then undefeated Riders. What follows a victory like that at home is usually a letdown on the road the following week. The Stamps were sky high for that showdown last week and they delivered the goods. All week since beating the powerful Riders, the media has been playing it up, saying that the Stamps are now the team to beat this year. The players eat that crap up in much the same way the Riders did before that humbling loss last week. This is a horrible situational spot for the Stamps and if they show up with the same emotion and focus as they did last week, good for them but it’s highly unlikely.
It has been difficult for us to get on board with the Lions because they have not looked sharp the entire season. Loaded with talent throughout their line-up both on offense and defense, one has to figure that at some point the Lions are going to explode. Could this be the week? The situation for B.C. to go off is a good one. They have had two weeks to prepare for this one and that’s huge considering the Stamps went all out last week. B.C. is capable of blowing out anyone but have not had that luxury yet. The Lions also remember the first week of the season in which they went into Calgary and had their defense carved up in a 44-32 loss. They’ve had this game circled on their calendar ever since. B.C. has not peaked yet but make no mistake, this host is as talented as any team in the league and Travis Lulay is right there among them. The Stampeders peaked last week and that game had to take something out of them. In a normal week with equal rest and equal situational spots, we’d be hesitant to lay the points but that’s not the case here. This one sets up as perhaps the best situational spot of the season so far and we’re on it because the B.C. Lions will be more prepared this week than they’ve been all year.
Craig Davis
The Yanks jumped all over Felix Doubront last night due in large part to the hot bat of Alfonso Soriano... who had 18 RBIs over his last four games... tying a major league record.
And it doesn't seem to matter who's pitching... he's hitting everyone.
The Yanks triumphed 10-3 last night, adding two insurance runs in the 9th to close the deal.
Tonight the Yankees look for their fifth win in six games as they send their best pitcher, Hiroki Kuroda, to the hill in an attempt to win yet another game.
He has been dominant for the Bronx Bombers recently (and most of the year, honestly) and will be called upon again today to get it done... hopefully this time with more run support than he's recently been getting.
Countering for Boston will be John Lackey, and although he's pitched better than we first saw him at the beginning of the year, he's simply not as good as Hiroki Kuroda and won't last as long.
The Yankees are clicking on all cylinders and should make quick work today.
Take the Yankees as your free play of the day.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Dolphins and Texans to put some scores up on the Reliant Stadium scoreboard, as Miami and Houston go Over the total.
This is Miami's third game of the preseason, and they have already scored 20 and 27 points in their first pair of games.
By all accounts, Joe Philbin's team looks to be much improved as they head to the gate for their September opener. Since this is their third game expect their offensive and defensive game plans to be a little further in place and expect the Dolphins to hang 3 or 4 touchdowns up on the board.
Houston was solid in their first preseason game, winning 27-13 at Minnesota last Friday night in a game that wound up heading Over the posted total.
The Texans feel this is their year to go all the way, and the fact that T.J. Yates is a pretty accomplished back-up for Matt Schaub tells me there will not be much of a drop-off when Schaub sits and watches the action.
Going to look for there to be just enough points for this one to go Over the total on Saturday night.
1♦ MIAMI-HOUSTON OVER