Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday August, 18

Wunderdog

New York Jets vs. New York Giants
Pick: New York Jets -1

The Giants fell behind Jacksonville 7-0 in their opener, but the Super Bowl champs rallied for 24 straight points to take a 24-7 lead, and it looked like the rout was on. It was Jacksonville that rallied from that point on, winning a thrilling (as thrilling as it gets in the preseason) 32-31 contest. The Jaguars showed perfect balance, running and throwing the ball vs. the G-men’s second and third units, and I would expect more of the same from the Jets here in this one, as the Jets ran the ball successfully in week one. Losses don't sit well with Rex Ryan, preseason or not. His teams have responded well in the preseason after suffering one, as they have dropped two in a row just twice in the last four seasons. Those two losses were his first two games on the Jets’ sidelines, and now that the players know what to expect from him they have responded. The Jets have gone 18-7 in their last 25 preseason games after being held to 14 or fewer points and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 following a loss. Play the Jets in this one.

Bryan Power

Kansas City vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis

It was an ugly start to the preseason for the Rams, who allowed a TD on Andrew Luck's first career pass and would go on to lose 35-3 to the Colts in Jeff Fisher's debut. With the team returning home and playing at the Edward Jones Dome for the first time under their new head coach, expect a far better effort Saturday as they welcome in an opponent that has been one of the biggest preseason disasters in recent years.

After back to back years of total ineptitude in the preseason under Todd Haley, Kansas City won new coach Romeo Crenell's home debut Friday, beating an Arizona team that was playing for a second time in five days, 27-17. The previous four preseasons had seen the Chiefs go a horrendous 3-13 SU and 1-13-2 ATS. But not only was the return of RB Jamal Charles a welcome sight last week at Arrowhead Stadium, but the offense would go on to score TD's in its first two drives and they'd never look back. They ran the ball 41 times in the win, not an an overly impressive clip (4.1 YPC), showing they weren't interested in showing much.

When a team loses badly in the preseason, they often come back with a more energized performance the next time out. With this being Fisher's first home game for the Rams, that should be amplified. Sure, that angle went only 1-3 ATS in NFLX Week 1, but over time it has paid off in spades. These teams meet regularly in preseason play with the Rams winning and covering five of the last six here at home. They also won 14-10 at KC last season. The Chiefs are 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 3 pts or less in the preseason and 2-11 ATS indoors. Look for the Rams to bounce back for Fisher.

Lenny Del Genio

Giants vs. Jets
Pick: Under

It used to be that the Jets, with their lack of any real historical success (save for Super Bowl III), were an automatic play in their annual preseason clash with their fellow Meadowlands tenants, who are the more celebrated franchise of the two. But this year, despite two Super Bowl wins in the last five seasons, it is likely to be the Giants defense coming into this game with far more motivation due to the media circus surrounding the Flyboys. Last week, neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow was very effective for the Jets as the offense failed to get into the end zone in a 17-6 loss to Cincinnati. Overall, the Jets offense ran just 52 plays at a sorry 3.3 YPP clip. Apparently, the Wild Cat (or whatever they’re calling it) will be “so effective” under Tebow come the regular season that HC Rex Ryan won’t be showing us anything in the preseason. The Giants offense was set up multiple times by Jacksonville turnovers in a 32-31 loss, which is why that final score was so high. Last year’s game ended in a 17-3 final in favor of the Jets, the 13th time in the last 19 meetings these teams went Under the total. Look for another low scoring game Saturday night. Take Under Giants/Jets

Carlo Campanella

NY Giants vs. NY JETS
Play: NY Giants

Defending Super Bowl champion Giants will want to defend their title and win "the Battle of New York," even if Saturday's meeting is an exhibition game. The Giants lost their first preseason game last Friday, 32-31, to Jacksonville and you can be sure that HC Coughlin will want to tighten his defense after allowing 32 points to a below average offense like the Jaguars. It shouldn't be a problem against a Jets squad that's struggled to an 8-8 record last season behind an offense that broke down mentally as WR Moss pointed fingers at QB Sanchez. That Jets' troubles continued into last weekends preseason opener against the Bengals where they managed only 6 points during a 17-6 loss. With the Jets QBs, Sanchez and Tebow, combining to complete 8 of 14 passes (57%) for only 48 yards and 1 Interception, we'll back the G-Men to easily take the "Battle of New York."

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

When Jon Lester takes on the Bronx Bombers at Yankees Stadium Saturday afternoon Lester will take the mound in terrific KW form with 23 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last three starts. The left hander is also 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA in his last eight team starts during the month of August. Toss in the fact that Lester's road ERA (3.17) is more than 3.5 runs per game better than his home ERA (6.23) this season and suddenly it comes as no surprise when he improves to 6-1 in his last seven team starts in this park today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are 25-12 in their last 37 vs. the National League Central and have lefty Erik Bedard going, who has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and has 111 Ks in 116 innings. This is a big series with the Wild Card spot at stake. St. Louis righty Lance Lynn is in a slump with a 5.29 ERA his last three starts and he has a 4.34 ERA against Pittsburgh this season. And the Cardinals are 2-6 in Lynn's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Play the Pirates.

Scott Spreitzer

Red Sox at Yankees
Prediction: Under

Jon Lester can't pitch a lick at Fenway this season, but he has been tremendous on the road. Lester has posted a 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and .220 BAA in 10 road starts in 2012. This makes the fourth straight season that Lester has posted a road ERA of 3.86 or better. New York counters with rookie David Phelps. The righthander has posted strong numbers this season in 23 appearances, including four starts. He'll face a Boston team that's slipping by the minute. The Red Sox had a bust-out day against Cleveland on August 12. But take away the anomaly and the Sox have scored a grand total of just 22 runs in their other seven games on their current road trip that began on August 9. Boston heads into this one on a 22-9 Under run in their last 31 road games. I expect another low scoring contest. I'm playing the Under between the Sox & Yankees on Saturday.

Jimmy Boyd

Philadelphia Phillies +101

The Phillies are showing value at this price with Cole Hamels on the hill. He is having another tremendous season (13-6, 2.91 ERA) and has been lights out in his last 2 starts (back-to-back complete game shutouts). Expect his dominance to continue against a Milwaukee club he's had a lot of success against. Hamels is 3-0 in his last 3 and 5-1 in his last 6 starts against the Brewers while holding them to 2 earned runs or fewer in each of these 6 starts. It is also worth noting that the Phillies are 22-5 lifetime in his road starts against clubs with a winning percentage of 38-46%. The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 versus the Brewers and 7-3 in their last 10 in Milwaukee. Take Philly.

Ben Burns

Miami vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado

The Marlins won yesterday's game. However, the Rockies have still won four of their last five and figure to have the edge this evening.

Chatwood is 2-1 with a 1.26 ERA as a starter. He's 2-0 his last two starts, allowing only a single earned run (and just seven hits) through 11 combined innings.

Eovaldi, on the other hand, has an ugly 6.00 ERA and a horrible 2.50 WHIP over his last three starts.

While Chatwood will have the advantage of starting against the Marlins for the first time, Eovaldi is 0-2 with a brutal 6.51 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two starts vs. the Rockies.

While the Rockies average nearly six runs per game here at home, the Marlins average less than four per game on the road. Even with yesterday's setback, the Rockies are still 5-2 the last seven times that they were a host in this series. Consider Colorado.

Rob Vinciletti

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St.Louis Cardinals
Play: St.Louis Cardinals

St. Louis qualifies in a nice system that has cashed 20 of 25 times, but the line is too high for unit rate status. We want to play on certain home favorites off a home favored loss at -140 or more if they scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits with 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog win and scored 4 or less runs on 5 or more hits. The Pirates took a close 2-1 game from the Cardinals last night. However St. Louis has a nice pitching advantage with Lynn who is 6-3 at home with a 3.15 home era. The Pirates go with Bedard and have lost 8 of his 11 road starts and he has a 6.98 road era. In 2 starts here this season Bedard has gone 9+ innings and allowed 7 earned runs. The Cardinals have won 10 of the last 13 at home vs leftys and are scoring 6 run per game on the year vs left handers. Add in this little nugget. St. Louis is 22-3 as a home favorite of -140 or higher if they lost their starters last start in walk off fashion. Look for the Cardinals to get this one.

Jeff Alexander

SF Giants -103

The Giants get the call as our free play Saturday due to their dominance of the Padres. San Francisco is 18-6 in its last 24 games against the Padres and 9-3 in its last 12 in San Diego. Plus, the Giants have crushed lefty starting pitching all season, and I like them to get to Stults today. The Giants are 24-12 against southpaw starters this season while hitting .270 against them. They are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Bet San Francisco on the money line.

Jack Jones

St. Louis Cardinals -158

Off back-to-back one-run losses, the St. Louis Cardinals are highly motivated for a victory Saturday over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cardinals trail the Pirates and Reds in the NL Central division, so this is certainly an important game for them.

The biggest reason for this play is the huge edge St. Louis has on the mound. Lance Lynn is 13-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in nine home starts.

Erik Bedard, who is 7-12 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in 22 starts this season, is no match for Lynn. The left-hander is 3-8 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in 11 road starts. Bedard is 1-2 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis as well.

The Pirates are 1-6 in Bedard's last 7 road starts. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter. St. Louis is 10-1 in Lynn's last 11 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

Dave Price

Arizona D-backs -165

Fading the Astros, who are 11-42 in their last 53 overall, including 3-13 in their last 16 home games. They are 4-27 in Lyles' last 31 starts, including 0-4 in his last 4 home starts. Plus, the D-backs have won 27 of the last 37 meetings, including 5 straight in Houston. Take the Snakes.

Brad Diamond

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

I have respect for hurler Scott Diamond of Minnesota, but Jason Vargas of the Mariners is on fire! In fact, over the last nine starts Vargas has allowed only 14 earned runs, going 6-1 with two no-decisions. Minnesota shows at 8-21 on Saturday, the Mariners 10-1 in that venue. With Seattle 9-1 at home, take a ticket with Seattle.