Dave Cokin
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees
Bad times for Boston. Jon Lester has emerged from his slump, but this still ultra-cheap for what is right now a clearly superior team at home. I'll take the Yankees.
SPORTS WAGERS
Bobby Green +100 over Matt Ricehouse
This one is a battle of 155ers vying for title contention in the not-so-deep Strikeforce lightweight division. Bobby "King" Green is 25 years old and already a veteran with an 18-5 record and also the valuable experience of having held three regional level MMA titles.
Matt Ricehouse is also 25 and comes in with a 6-0 record. Looking at their careers thus far, Green has a huge edge in experience having fought much better competition and has gone many rounds against UFC and Strikeforce level fighters. This is a big step up for Ricehouse, who will also be giving up advantages in wrestling and boxing to Green. Ricehouse will need to get this fight to the mat and keep it there in order to win and that's going to be a tall order. Green should be able to keep it standing and pick Ricehouse apart on the feet enough to win by decision or KO. Ricehouse is being falsely advertised as the chalk here, providing us with good value on Green.
SPORTS WAGERS
QPR +100 over Swansea
Towards the end of last season, QPR went on a spectacular run at home. They won its last five in a row to close out the season, including wins over Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs. During the off-season, QPR has bolstered their squad with the additions of Robert Green, Andrew Johnson, Fabio Da Silva, Park Ji-Sung and Junior Hoilett. This is a dangerous squad.
After a surprisingly good season last year, Swansea has not only lost key players, but they also lost the team manager who helped garner that success. Swansea has not scored a goal in their last six visits to QPR and there’s nothing that suggests this trip will be any different.
MATT RIVERS
4-1 run with my free plays the last 5 days.
NFL preseason comp play tonight is the Redskins and Bears to hold Under the total at Soldier Field.
Last week Washington was able to muster just one touchdown in their preseason opener against Buffalo, but that one touchdown was good enough to get them the 7-6 win. With RGIII still learning the ropes, Rex Grossman being Rex Grossman, and Kirk Cousins also expected to see action, I really don't see too many more points being tallied by the Capital Gang.
The fact the Chicago defense allowed 31-points last week in their feeble 31-3 home loss to Denver tells me that Lovie's team had better shore things up on the defensive side of the football in this home contest on Friday night.
As for the Bears offense, well 3 points last week says it all, as both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte did not see action. Both are expected to see limited action in this one, but that does not mean that the points will adding up. On the contrary, the rust will show, and this game stands no shot of heading Over the total.
The Redskins bring a 5-0 Under mark in the second game of the preseason the last 5 years into this affair. Don't buck that trend.
Under we go in Washington-Chicago.
3* WASHINGTON-CHICAGO UNDER
Taking a look at the total of today's Giants-Padres game, I am going to stay with a low-scoring game when Barry Zito opposes Eric Stults.
I know Zito has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts, but those starts did come at home. In his last road start, the southpaw allowed just 2 runs in 6-plus innings of work in a start at St.Louis. That makes just 5 runs allowed over his last 20-plus innings of mound-work on the road this season.
Look for him to hook up with Eric Stults in a low-scoring affair in the twilight at Petco Park.
Stults comes into this one fresh off a Monday night shutdown start of the red-hot Braves in Atlanta, as he worked into the 8th inning with just 1 run allowed. Stults started the season with the White Sox, and has proved to be a reliable starter for the Padres, allowing 2 runs or less in 5 of the 6 starts he has made in a San Diego uniform.
5 of Stults' 6 starts for Diego have ended up going Under the total.
Speaking of Unders, with the rare exception of last night's series opener going Over the total, San Diego has still played low in 4 of their last 5, and 6 of their last 9 overall.
Going to side with another low-scoring game involving the Friars this Saturday night.
San Francisco-San Diego Under the total.
2* SAN FRANCISCO-SAN DIEGO UNDER
DOM CHAMBERS
Let’s take a look at the Philadelphia Phillies to beat the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Phillies are a good team having a bad season. It’s just one of those things that happens.
But Cole Hamels is still a quality starter and has turned things around for the Phillies.
In his last two outings he has pitched two complete game shutouts. In his last three starts his ERA is0.72 with a WHIP of 0.84.
Michale Fiers starts for the Brewers. In his last three starts, he is 2-1, but he has gotten some run support. His ERA is 6.19 with a WHIP of 1.25.
The Phillies have the pitching edge and should pull off the victory.
3* PHILLIES
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie is the Under in the Rays-Angels game.
Take a look as the series meetings between these teams, they have played now eight times this year, and seven of the eight have held Under the total. In fact, dating back to last season, eight of the last eleven series meetings have also stayed Under the posted price.
I know C.J. Wilson has been in a rut of late - 0-5 his last nine starts! - but he has not pitched that badly, as four of his last five starts have seen three runs or less scored against him, and he does own a 3.08 home ERA for the year.
Alex Cobb will go for the Rays, and Cobb has allowed a scant three runs his last 21 innings pitched. Cobb has made 15 starts this season, and 12 of those 15 inlcuding six in a row have stayed Under the total.
Series numbers dictate a play on the Under in this one, as the offense when these two teams face one another has been AWOL to say the least.
Rays-Halos LOW.
2* TAMPA BAY-L.A. ANGELS UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
Let's get to the free winner tonight, as I take the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies, as I love the cheap number against the once-again struggling National League East-favorites-gone-bad. The Phils have lost three straight, and could see that skid extend to five by the end of the weekend.
I know Cole Hamels is up for the Phillies, but I don't mind siding with Milwaukee's Mike Fiers. After all, the oddsmakers have this line at Milwaukee -110, so there must be something right about the Brew Crew if this youngster is basically a pick against Hamels.
Not to menion the fact Fiers is coming into this one after a Coors Field debacle in which he allowed more earned runs in two-plus innings - eight - than he allowed in his previous 62 innings. Opponents had batted .188 against Fiers in that 62-inning span, so I think the rookie is more than capable to pitch the Brewers to a win.
Nonetheless, I'm not going to list pitchers, when it's all about going against the Phillies as a team at this point.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Craig Davis
My free play run is 61-40-2.
Tonight's freebie comes in the NFL.
In case you haven't been watching, the Dallas Cowboys are so dead set on playing good defense this year, they have failed to realize they still have to work on that offense.
In the Cowboys first pre-season game of the year, they managed a 3-0 win over the Oakland Raiders... another game in which I released the UNDER and cashed. That night it was an official 20-dime winner, but no matter the rating --- a win is a win.
The Cowboys are dealing with a number of injuries right now, across the offensive line, the backfield, and TE Jason Witten. Jason Garrett isn't about to chance losing any other players as the season approaches, so his plan is to simply "get through pre-season" and make sure his team is as close to 100% healthy when September gets here.
As for the Chargers, they really have concern over their defense as well, but a solid showing vs. Green Bay last week is definitely a step in the right direction. And if you consider they are also dealing with some injuries on offense, the focus is more on stopping people and improving defensive technique and keeping the offense healthy.
Ryan Mathews was lost last week and they can ill-afford to start the season with many weapons on the shelf.
Don't expect either team to show their hand tonight, as this game should be in the neighborhood of 17-14. Free play of the day on the UNDER.
1♦ DALLAS-SAN DIEGO UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Saturday night is on the Atlanta Braves against the Los Angeles Dodgers, as I think last night set the tone for what could be a very good series for the National League East contenders.
I actually think the Dodgers had their weekend ruined before they arrived in the A-T-L, losing 10-6 in Pittsburgh on Thursday. To lose that series finale and then have to travel to Atlanta had to be tough. Then you had last night's extra-inning loss to the Braves, and it just seems as if the Dodgers are about to return home on a tough losing streak.
I realize Los Angeles has won five of its last eight games, all of which have come on the road, and its 12-4 road record since the All-Star break going into Thursday was the second best in the Major Leagues, but losing back-to-back is hard to swallow and I don't know if they can rebound against an Atlanta team that is now on a four-game win streak.
I'm sure the Dodgers will remain competitive, and will challenge to win this series. They should, I mean they are 12-3 in games played in the Eastern Time Zone this season. But the surging Braves will have plenty of confidence for this one, as they've won three of four against L.A. this season.
Take the Braves.
3♦ BRAVES
Chris Jordan
Let's get to that free winner now, as I like the New York Yankees for the second night in a row, against their arch rivals, the Boston Red Sox. Straight action, no listed pitchers, as I love the Yankees to pick up where they left off after last night's come-from-behind win.
The Yankees had their three-game win streak snapped Thursday, and it was quite painful to watch, as it was a 600♦ play for me. But maybe it was the best thing to happen on the heels of this series. I even said yesterday it was the right time to jump on board this time and ride it out 'til they lose again.
I've always liked the home team with momentum in a heated series. And I think the Red Sox are in deep trouble right now against the surging Yankees, who have won eight of 11.
The Sox are 5-11 in August and 3-5 on their 10-game road trip, and come in with the added baggage of having off-field distractions surrounding manager Bobby Valentine.
That just doesn't bode well against a Yankees (71-48) team that is 23 games above .500 and now tied with their high-water mark for the season.
Lay the chalk.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
MTi Sports
Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Astros are 0-13 in franchise history with Jordan Lyles when he is off a start in which they scored first and lost. Consider Arizona.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
This is certainly one of those matchups that will have a direct impact on the playoff and divisional standings. Atlanta is tracking down the Washington Nationals in the NL East, who they trail by four games entering Saturday action. The Dodgers are just ? game behind the the NL West division leading Giants. In the NL wild card race Atlanta has a solid lead for the first playoff berth leading Pittsburgh, who holds the second NL wild card berth by four games. The Dodgers would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today trailing the Pirates by 1 ? games in the wild card race.
Arizona has been fading trailing The Pirates by six games, so this has become a four-team race for the two spots. Atlanta has a firm hold on the playoffs having won four straight games and seven of their last 10 games. I have stated for the last two months, that I strongly believed that Atlanta would chase down the Nationals for the NL East division crown.
Supporting System
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 68-20 for 77% winners since 1997. Play against road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 and is a below average hitting team batting .255 or less and with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season and is now facing an excellent starting pitcher posting an ERA of 2.70 or less on the season.
Game Situations Favoring the Braves
Atlanta got a very important win Friday defeating the Dodgers 4-3. The Braves are a solid 14-3 winning 11.6 units per one unit wagered against the money line after a one run win this season. Moreover, the Braves have played great defense and had great pitching. They have now gone four straight games allowing four runs with two shutouts and have not allowed more than three runs in any one game. Note that the Braves are a solid 15-5 making 9.9 units per one unit wagered against the money line after allowing three runs or less in three straight games this season. Take the Braves
Jesse Schule
Cleveland vs. Oakland
Pick: Over
The Tribe are on the West Coast, facing Oakland in the second game of a three game series, and it is no surprise that they have lost the opener. Cleveland has been terrible lately, losing three straight, and 12 of 16 in the month of August. They have been getting shocking performances from their starting pitchers, and the defense behind them has also been terrible.
Corey Kluber will get the nod for the Tribe today, coming off a loss his last time out. Kluber (0-1, 8.56 ERA) allowed six runs on seven hits, while allowing a walk in just over three innings in a 14-1 loss to Boston in his last start. Kluber has been terrible in three starts this year, allowing 15 runs in just over 15 innings in total.
The Athletics will counter with the cagey veteran Bartolo Colon, who is also coming off a rough outing. Colon (9-9, 3.55 ERA) was roughed up for six runs on nine hits, while allowing a home run and a pair of walks in a 7-3 loss to the White Sox in his last start. He had been fantastic in his previous three outings, allowing just one run and recording three straight victories.
Colon is having a good season, but when you look at him he looks terrible, he's 39, but he looks like he is 50. Perhaps his age is catching up with him. He has also had trouble maintaining velocity on his fastball at times. I would expect him to bounce back from a terrible outing, but a shutout isn't likely in the cards for Colon today.
As far as the Tribe, Kluber is likely to get Clobbered again today.
Andre Gomes
Cubs / Reds Under 7.5 Game 1
On this first game of a double header, I like both SP to have a great performance and shutdown the batters for this contest. Samardzija is coming from a great outing against Houston and the truth is that he has allowed just two runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts, while his FIP has been lower than 4.00 in five of his last six outings. With the Reds having a lineup full of RH batters, this is a good matchup for Samardzija, as he is .242 BA, .347 SLG, 2.77 FIP and 2.91 xFIP against RH batters this season! This is why he has already dominated the Reds this season by allowing them just one run and three hits in a 7.2 IP outing.
Cincinnati will start Cueto on this early game and he is my current bet to win the NL Cy Young award. He is coming from 5 days rest and in fact, he is coming from a dominant performance against this very same Cubs on the road, where he allowed no runs and just three hits in a 8.0 IP outing. He has a season ERA of 2.45 and his August numbers aren't much worse with 2.82 ERA, 3.36 FIP and 2.88 xFIP. Against a poor lineup of the Cubs today, I believe Cueto will once again dominate.
Cincinnati will be resting Ludwick and Stubbs for this game and so, they will be missing some of their offensive power in here, especially as Ludwick has been hitting .330 BA in August. With both SP having a great spot to dominate the batters on this contest, I'll see a lot of value on the Under and so, I'll take it in here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +151 over ST. LOUIS
Over the course of a season, every team will suffer through a stretch in which their bats go cold. That has yet to happen to the Cardinals but they could be on the verge of that right now. St. Louis is coming off back-to-back games of scoring a lone run. That occurred against two struggling starters in Trevor Cahill and James MacDonald. The Cardinals have also lost seven of their past 10 games while the Pirates have won two straight.
The Cards have lost Lance Lynn’s past three starts but it should have been four after the right-hander was let off the hook when the Cubs got to him for six runs in five frames. He’s now allowed 16 runs over his past 22 innings covering four starts. Lynn has had trouble getting lefties out all season (1.68 WHIP against LH) and now he’s having that same problem against righties too. Lynn is finding the stretch run of his first full season to be rather difficult. It won’t help that the Pirates have had the luxury of seeing him twice already this year.
Erik Bedard is hit and miss. He can be downright nasty one game and blow up the very next. But he’s more appealing taking back a tag like this, than he is spotting one. We know he’s capable and it’s a risk worth taking against the suddenly struggling combination of both the Cardinals and Lance Lynn.
Tampa Bay +136 over L.A. ANGELS
Tampa has now won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 19-3. In eight games against L.A. this season, the Rays are 7-1 and have allowed just 10 runs in those eight contests. Overall, TB is 16-6 over its last 22 games.
Alex Cobb is the next Rays pitcher to get a crack at the Angels. Cobb is not as consistent as his teammates but his skills are equal and with a bit of better luck (65% strand rate on year), his ERA would be significantly lower than his current one of 4.08. Cobb has an elite groundball rate of 58%. His xERA of 3.49 is more than 1½-runs lower than his actual ERA. He has good control and his strikeout rate is increasing. Those factors keep him on our buy low radar and it sure doesn’t hurt that he’s pitching for a red-hot club.
C.J. Wilson’s transition from a late inning reliever into a 200+ inning a year workhorse has been remarkable to say the least. However, we’re seeing a deterioration of his skills, particularly his control and strikeout rate and that should be worrisome to Angel backers here given Wilson's limited track record as a starter. Wilson has walked 69 batters in 154 frames. In games in which his strand rate is normal, he allows runs in bunches. In games in which his strand rate is 80% or more, he has to pitch out of trouble time and time again. In two of his last three starts, he’s reached the 100+ pitch count in five innings and had to be removed. The toll all this is taking on Wilson is adding up and with 223 innings pitched last year, 203 the previous year and 154 this season, C.J. Wilson is a pitcher that could be suffering from fatigue, resulting in a difficult stretch run. Once again we find solid value on this very live pooch.