Wunderdog
Texas at Toronto
Pick: Texas -130
The Texas Rangers lost a tough one here last night, but this is a team that has been at their best after a loss. The Rangers sport a 46-18 mark after tasting defeat in their previous game. The Blue Jays hung in the race in the AL East for a while, but they have really dropped out of site by going 5-1 in their last 19 games. The Jays have had little bite as a dog where they are 5-13 in their last 18 games. The Rangers are winning the games they are supposed to as they are now 63-31 in their last 94 vs. a losing team. Roy Oswalt has been spotty, but is certainly capable of a gem. The Jays have really struggled against a pitcher with a WHIP of greater than 130 where they are a dismal 1-8 in their last nine. Play on Texas in this one.
Andre Gomes
New York Liberty +7.5
The Liberty took advantage of the Olympic break to practice and especially to heal some of their injured players, especially Planette Pierson, Kia Vaughn and DeMya Walker. With their frontcourt now healed, New York scored 46 points in the paint in their game two days ago against Connecticut, their second best mark of the season. Not only they looked good on paint, as their better presence on the inside helps spreading the floor to give more space to their shooters and that's why the Liberty shot 6-16 3pts! Even without a star in the frontcourt, the Liberty have a deep unit that helps them in always being quite good down low throughout the whole games.
On the other hand, Connecticut had basically a no-show in New York. With Jones out due to injury and Charles struggling with 1-7 FG, the Sun were never in the game. They showed no aggressiveness (4-5 FT), but I'm sure they will look better today, with Charles bouncing back and with the whole team trying to be more aggressive on both ends of the floor. However, with even Connecticut playing much better today, I still believe the Liberty will be competitive tonight. Even though Connecticut has already routed the Liberty at home twice this season (92-77 & 97-55), the truth is that tonight's spread (7,5) is very similar to the lines these two games had (7 & 8), even though Connecticut had Charles and Jones on their best and with the Liberty having a banged up Pierson playing just 8 minutes and coming off the bench.
Therefore, we have good reasons to believe that this healthy version of the Liberty have conditions to make this game very competitive tonight, especially when the Sun will be playing without Jones and with Charles bouncing back but yet to be at 100% after the Olympics. So, I'll be taking New York on tonight's contest.
Los Angeles Sparks -4
Seattle had a very easy win over a terrible Phoenix team, however they didn't look good at all. Sue Bird struggled the whole game with a stomach flu and even though Tina Thompson returned to the court, but she was clearly limited. With Wauters and Lauren still out, the Storm' post game is basically zero right now. They didn't have problems against Phoenix, but let's face it, the Mercury frontcourt is also a disaster, however the same can't be said to the Sparks' frontcourt. Seattle attempted 23 3pts shots, went to the charity line just 7 times and grabbed only 4 offensive rebounds against Phoenix! They will now face the Sparks, and the LA team has a big defensive problem in stopping pick n rolls, as their frontcourt struggles in defending this kind of play. However, Seattle has no frontcourt for this game, just Camille Little and she isn't a threat down low and she's a mid-ranger shooter.
I believe there will be no miracles for Seattle. With Lauren back and Bird at 100%, the Storm will be a very strong team. However, on this game with Bird struggling with the flu and Lauren out, the Sparks' powerful frontcourt with Parker, Ogwumike and Milton-Jones will pound the Storm down low and get a comfortable win today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Sparks tonight.
Dave Essler
Seattle / Denver Under 38.5
I think we're going to see regression, and this total is inflated because of the obvious "Manning in his first game at home" factor. However, both teams have very under-rated defenses, but what really pushed me over the edge here is that neither of these teams can possibly be in game-shape, even the ones' struggling to make an impression, hence the later it gets the more effect the Mile High air may well have. I do think Seattle is vastly under-rated, but there's still Pete Carroll, and there's still the "Seattle on the road" part, and the Broncos at home. It's just a tough spot for the young Seahawks, and although I do get the fact that conventional wisdom has them winning, I cannot see them winning a high scoring game. Yes, often the first-string may put some points up, but I just don't see Manning having the timing even close to down yet with his team, and again, whether it's Flynn or Wilson, in a loud place. Over the key number of 38 taking the under is a play for me.
Greg Shaker
Oakland A's -1.5 +130
In order for me to play a -1.5 game in the Major League's just about everything has to come together the right way and My Model has to say that it is going to be profitable over the long haul. That's what is happening here and even based on this +130 Play it says that the Athletics will win by 2 or more runs 55.2% of the time. There are always strong reasons to back BC at home and the fact is, here by at this Park Colon has posted a 1.86 ERA in his last 8 home starts BBing just 5 in over 53 innings. Cleveland's Starting Rotation? An ERA near 8 over the last 20 games. Perhaps why the Indians are failing miserably and why they are 1-12 their last 13 road contests. Kluber? Ouch material for sure. Oakland vying for the playoffs and we can expect a pretty darn good effort.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
NEW YORK -126 over Boston: Had the Yanks last night and will go with them here again. The Sox are really dead in the water in the playoff chase and it looks like they have given up. True they did come back from an early deficit last night but they were pretty much handed those 4 runs thanks to a stupid error by Hughes. Had they turned the DP, Boston would not have gotten 4 runs in that inning. Jon Lester gets the ball for Boston tonight and he has pitched well on the road, with a 4-2 mark and a 3.17 ERA, but he is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in day games and he has struggled with the Yanks of late. In his last 3 starts vs the Yanks, Lester has allowed 16 ER's and that's in just 14 innings of work. The Sox are 3-1 in his last 4 starts here, but he does have an 8.27 ERA in those games. David Phelps will be making his 5th start on the year and he has pitched very well in his first 4, allowing 2 ER's or less in each start. Phelps has a 1.86 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in 29 innings at home this year. Boston can hit, but i just don't expect them to get much off of Phelps in this one. The Yanks want to keep winning and are still motivated for this one. Yanks should take game 2 here.
Seattle/ Minnesota Under 7: Last night i had the Over between these two teams and it just sneaked over the total with a late homer by Minnesota. Tonight I will head the other way and go with the Under. This is a solid pitching matchup, with Vagas vs Diamond. Scott Diamond has been a bright spot on an other wise horrid Minnesota staff. He comes in with a 2.97 ERA overall and a 3.48 ERA on the road. Scott did have two rough outings in the middle of his last 9 starts, but he has still allowed 3 ER's or less in the other 7 starts over that stretch. What also helps here is that Seattle really struggles to hit lefties at home, hitting just .217 and scoring 2.81 rp/ 9 off of them at Safeco. Minnesota also struggles vs lefties, especially on the road, where they hit .227 and score just 3.93 rp/ 9 off of them. Tonight the Twins will be taking on a tough lefty. Back in June Jason Vargas allowed 10 ER's in 1 game at Arizona. It was his worst start of the year, but since then he has allowed a TOTAL of 14 ER's in his last 9 starts, allowing 3 ER's or less in each of those starts. Jason has a 2.62 ERA and an 0.96 WHIP at home and in his last 4 home starts he has allowed 2 ER's or less in each. On the year Jason's home starts have gone 8-2 to the Under, with an average of just 5.5 rpg being scored, while overall Safco has yielded just 6.3 rpg. Should be a really good pitcher's duel in the great northwest tonight.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
ST LOUIS -160 over Pittsburgh: The Defending World series champs need to start winning, or they may miss out on the post season festivities. The last 2 nights their offense has disappeared as they were able to score just 1 run in each game, but i expect that to change today vs Erik Bedard, who has really struggled for the Pirates. Erik is 7-12 with a 4.52 ERA overall, but on the road he is 3-8 with a 6.75 ERA and he will be taking on a St Louis team that crushes left handed pitching at home. The Cards hit .276 and scored 5.4 rp/ 9 off of lefties overall, but at home they hit .306 and score 6.34 rpo/ 9 off of southpaws. Erik has faced the cards 3 times this year and the Pirates are1-2 in those starts and he has allowed 20 hits, 8 walks and 9 ER's in 16.2 innings of work. Look a desperate St Louis offense to explode on him today. Lance Lynn has struggled of late, but he has still gone 13-5 with a 3.65 ERA overall, including 6-3 with a 3.15 ERA at home. The Pirates do score well on the road 4.5 rpg, but St Louis pitching has allowed just 2 runs or less in each of their last 5 games at home, since allowing 15 runs by the Giants. For Pittsburgh of late it has been their pitching that has hurt them as they have allowed 6.3 rpg in their last 10 games. Look for St Louis to bounce back after last night's tough loss. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2006 the Cardinals are 22-3 as a home favorite of 140+ if they suffered a walk-off loss in their starters last start.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (32-12 L44) (40-19 +15.11 UNITS)
Since 208 the Pirates are 11-35 on the road when they won heir starters last 2 starts as long as he has less than 7 days rest. Play on St Louis -162 over Pittsburgh.
Since 2009 the Astros are just 7-35 as a dog of 140+ when they are off a loss as a dog in which they drew at most 1 walk. play On Arizona -165 over Houston
MLB Predictions
New York Yankees -110
The Yankees took last night's game by a final score of 6-4 in a game that included a handful of homeruns. Today Jon Lester will take the mound for Boston and he is just 6-10 this season with a high 5.20 ERA. In two outings vs New York this season Lester is 0-1 allowing 8 earned runs against in just 10.1 innings of work. David Phelps will get another start this afternoon and he is 3-3 on the season with a 2.53 ERA. As a starter he is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA, and at home he is 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA overall. The Yankees are 38-23 at home. Boston is just 3-7 in their last 10 and 2-6 in Lester's last 8 starts. If the Yankees weren't missing some key players this play would be rated higher, but we will take it for 1 unit.
Oakland Athletics -160
I don't like laying this much chalk often, but tonight seems like good value at -160. Corey Kluber will get his 4th start and he is 0-1 with a 8.56 ERA so far. Kluber allowed just 1 earned run against vs Minnesota on August 7th, but his other two starts he allowed 6 earned runs against in each. Bartolo Colon will look to help Oakland win their third straight game tonight. He is 9-9 with a 3.55 ERA on the season and 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts. Cleveland is just 7-21 in their last 28 games overall, and they are 1-6 in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. The A's are 17-7 in their last 24 home games, and 4-1 in Colon's last 5 starts.
Orioles / Tigers Over 9.5
Detroit won last night 5-3 giving them three straight victories. Tonight we will see Zach Britton vs Rick Porcello. Britton is 1-1 with a 8.10 ERA over his 5 starts. He has allowed 4+ earned runs against in 4 of his 5 starts, and his ERA over his last three starts is 11.48. Porcello has also struggled lately as he is 9-7 on the season with a 4.68 ERA, but has allowed 5, 4, 3, and 4 earned runs against over his last 4. He has pitched to a 5.40 ERA in both July and August thus far. The OVER is 5-1-1 in Britton's last 7 starts overall dating back to last season, and 11-3-2 in his last 16 road starts. The OVER is 5-1 in the Tigers last 6 home gmaes, 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts overall, and 22-10-2 in his last 34 home starts. The OVER is also 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings in Detroit.
Seattle Mariners -120
The Twins have dropped 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 after last night's 5-3 loss to Seattle. The win gave Seattle three straight and 5 of their last 6. Scott Diamond will pitch for Minnesota and he is 10-5 with a 2.97 ERA on the year. Jason Vargas is 13-8 with a 3.56 ERA, but has been lights out lately pitching to a 6-1 record over his last 8 starts with a 1.64 ERA. The Mariners are 10-1 in their last 11 home games, and 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs a team with a losing road record. The Mariners are also 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 starts overall, and 5-2 in his last 7 home starts vs a team with a losing record.
Sean Murphy
Kansas City vs. St. Louis
Pick: Kansas City
The oddsmakers saw the same thing I did last week, as the Chiefs dominated the Cardinals while the Rams were blasted by the youthful Colts in their respective preseason openers.
I don't expect much to change when the two teams hook up on Saturday.
The Chiefs are simply further along in their progression than the Rams right now. St. Louis will get better under new head coach Jeff Fisher, but it's going to take some time. Kansas City believes it can contend in the wide-open AFC West, and by all accounts, is buying into what head coach Romeo Crennel is selling.
Note that Crennel is a long-term winner in the preseason, with his teams going 10-7 ATS all time following last week's victory.
The Chiefs have delivered nightmarish results in the preseason in recent years, but I think last week's strong performance will help them turn the corner. I actually like their QB rotation for a change this year, with Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi backing up Matt Cassel. Gone are the days of guys like Brodie Croyle, Tyler Thigpen, and Tyler Palko getting the majority of the preseason snaps - and that's a good thing.
The Rams won't push starting QB Sam Bradford too hard in the preseason, not given his ankle issues, and their lack of depth at the position. Kellen Clemens and Austin Davis saw considerable playing time last week, and that should be the case again on Saturday. With that being said, I give a significant edge to a fairly deep, and healthy Kansas City defense.
Both of these teams will be looking to turn things around this season, but right now it's the Chiefs that are much further along. I like them to go on the road and win this one in convincing fashion.
Joseph D'Amico
Dallas Cowboys vs.San Diego
Play: San Diego -3 -115
Both teams won their opener with the Cowboys eking a 3-0 win over the Raiders and the Chargers slamming the Packers, 21-13. The big talk this week is the loss of Jason Witten. To me, Witten is the most valuable Tight End to his team in the NFL. The standout TE was not a factor in Game 1. He caught just 2 passes for 6 yards but it is a fact that Witten is the "go-to" guy for any of the Dallas' QBs. Tony Romo was 3 for 6 and had 30 YP in the first game. Orton and McGhee combined for 135 YP and 1 INT and more importantly, 0 TDs. Looking at their entire roster of RBs and Receivers, Witten seems to be the only standout without with his head in straight (sorry Dez Bryant). Hence, the reason why they only posted a mere 3 points against Oakland. Dallas finished the regular season at 8-8 and split out in the pre-season as well, posting a record of 2-2 but was 1-3 ATS. The team will not jeopardize and further playmakers. Romo will see more action but not much more. San Diego finished LY's campaign at 8-8 also, starting and finishing strong, going 4-1 at both ends. It was their 6 games skid between October and November that killed the team. In the season's first exhibition game, QB Philip Rivers was 3 of 5 passing for 37 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Backup, Jarrett Lee came in and threw for a whopping 235 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. RB, Ryan Matthews is expected to sit, which tells me that the team really needs to and WILL establish their presence on the ground here. The roster sports more than enough runners to step up in this situation. Seven different receivers each amassed DDs in yardage with 12 overall players pulling down at least 1 reception in the opener. The depleted Dallas defense doesn't have the tools to face so many talented wide outs. San Diego averaged 22.0 PPG in LYs pre-season, including a 20-7 victory over Dallas also in Week 2.
Take San Diego here.
Dirty
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Boston Red Sox
Lefthander Jon Lester will take the mound for the Red Sox to start this game. Lester is 6-10 this season with a 5.20 ERA. Starting this game for the Yankees will be David Phelps. The righthander has a 2.50 ERA to go along with a 1-1 record this season. Boston is 12-5 SU in their last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +119 over COLORADO
Can you think of a less appealing favorite combination than Tyler Chatwood starting for the Rockies at Coors Field? We certainly can’t. Chatwood took over Jonathan Sanchez’s rotation spot as a result of Sanchez’s dismal season. Chatwood did a reasonable Sanchez impression in his first start with Colorado by walking four batters in 3.1 innings and not making it out of that inning. Chatwood has walked 11 and struck out just 14 in 27 innings. Given manager Jim Tracy’s strict 75-pitch limit, Chatwood is not long for this game and the last thing you want to hear when you bet on the Colorado’s Rockies is that “there’s activity in the bullpen”.
After consecutive series against the tough pitching of the Dodgers and Phillies, the Marlins will find this group of starters much more to their liking. They went off for six runs last night and it’s worth noting that they beat the Phillies and Roy Halladay Wednesday, 9-2.
Nate Eovaldi is a bit of a wild-card. He was a highly touted youngster in the Dodger organization before they traded him to the Marlins. He’s allowed two runs or less in five of his past eight starts but he’s also been smacked around a few times too. In four starts with the Marlins, he has failed to pitch more than 5.1 innings in any start. Still, he has a groundball bias profile and will face a club with more losses than any team in the majors with the exception of Houston. Colorado is a risky favorite with a good pitcher going. With Chatwood starting, that risk increases dramatically.