Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 20,2011

Hollywood Sports

Raiders at 49ers
Play: Over

Oakland's defense allowed 400 yards of offense in their 24-18 loss to Arizona last week. The Raiders have now played 8 of their last 9 preseason games Over the Total. This Bay Area clash is interesting in that both clubs are installing new offensive schemes and will likely look to challenge their respective offensive units with one preseason game under their belt. First-year head coach Hue Jackson has brought in Al Saunders to run the offense and improve the Raiders' passing attack. Oakland is also switching from a zone blocking scheme to a power blocking model. The Raiders have three veteran QBs in Jason Campbell, Trent Edwards and Kyle Boller that can all put points on the board. San Francisco is reverting back to their classic West Coast Offense under rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh. Look for Alex Smith to get more playing time this week after tossing only seven passes in the 49ers 24-3 loss to New Orleans. Said Smith about the struggles he had with the new offense last week (that we successfully predicted with our 25* NFLx NFC Game of the Year): "At this point, offensively, you know struggled, obviously didn't get anything going early on ? There was some miscommunication, missed balls on passes. It just wasn't good. I didn't feel that great about it. Obviously, it's the first preseason game. A lot of us have only had five or six practices under our belt, 12 for some of the guys that have been here all of camp. We have to learn from this. We have to get better. We knew it was going to be tough, potentially it was going to be a little sloppy, but some things have to get fixed and we will. That's what these games are for." Expect significant improvement from Smith and the 49ers' offense after another week of practice. Colin Kaepernick will likely get the vast majority of the remaining snaps as coach Jim Harbaugh looks to get his prized rookie experience in his West Coast Offense after playing in the unique Pistol Formation during his collegiate time at Nevada. Harbaugh has brought in former All-Pro Daunte Culpepper to possibly serve as the third QB for this team. Only two QBs to snaps for San Francisco last week and that may very likely happen again. Given all these quality quarterbacks needing to learn new systems, the onus will be on both offenses for this exhibition game which make the Over a nice proposition.

Lenny Del Genio

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh makes his home debut Saturday night against Bay Area rival Oakland looking to erase the memory of last weeks 24-3 loss to the Saints. First year head coaches making their home debuts went 3-1 ATS last week with Raiders HC Hue Jackson, ironically enough, being the odd man out. These teams meet each year in the preseason and Oakland has lost three straight in San Francisco and were beaten last year at home 28-24 as one-point favorites. Look for more of the same Saturday night. Take San Francisco.

Ultimate Sport Picks

Saints vs. Texans
Play: Over 36.5

These are two teams that love to spread you out and attack down field with the pass game, which will lead to some quick scores. Drew Brees and Matt Schaub should put up a good amount of points in the little time they play. Look for both guys to combine for around 17 to 24 points in the first quarter and a half. Then the back ups should be able to take it from there. Chase Daniels and Matt Leinart are more than capable, more importantely they will still be running the same high powered type of offense that the Saints and Texans run. Take the over in this match up. The total should land in the 40's.

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers and Rockies resume their three-game series in Colorado Saturday afternoon when Ted Lilly opposes Esmil Rogers at Coors Field. Despite taking team losses in each of his last three starts, Lilly has rounded back into solid current form with a 1.71 ERA in those efforts. He is also 8-2 in his ten career team starts against the Rockies. Meanwhile, Rogers home ERA (9.34) is more than five full runs worse than his road ERA (3.99) this season. With that, look for Lilly to enter the winners circle here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Nick Parsons

Reds @ Pirates
PICK: Under

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

Coming into Friday the Reds are 60-63; 34-30 at home and 26-33 on the road.

Cincinnati has seen the total go "under" the number in just 53 of 118 (with five "pushes").

Dontrelle Willis (0-3, 4.08 ERA) heads to the hill for the Reds; Willis is winless on the year but for the most part has been quite solid; his ERA is even more respectable away from friendly confines (3.24).

Willis is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA vs. the Pirates this season.

In the other dugout: Coming into Friday the Pirates are 58-64 this year; 28-33 at home and 30-31 on the road.

Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" the number in 62 of 118 (with four "pushes").

Charlie Morton (9-6, 3.43 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; in his last start Morton held the Brewers to just a single run and four hits over 7 1/3 innings of work, but his bullpen fell apart and his team lost 2-1; Morton finished with five strikeouts and two walks in the no-decision.

He's now allowed just one run over his last 24-frames pitched.

Morton scored a victory over the Reds the last time he faced them, allowing just three hits over five innings back on July 18th.

Bottom line: With these two starters going head to head on Saturday afternoon, you may want to consider a wager on the "under" in this contest.

Jim Feist

San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros
Pick: San Francisco Giants

Despite a rough stretch, San Francisco is still in the pennant race with Arizona and catches a break this weekend playing the miserable Astros. Lefty Madison Bumgarner (3.49 ERA) is on a red-hot roll, with a 1.64 ERA his last three starts fanning 24 in 22 innings and only 5 walks. Houston has never faced him before, either. The offense will hit young Jordan Lyles (1-7, 5.31 ERA), who has an 8.83 ERA his last three starts and the Astros are 1-12 in Lyles' last 13 starts. The Giants are 16-7 in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Play the Giants!

Scott Rickenbach

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +3

The Vikings were held to just three points in their preseason opener last week. Minnesota is fired up and ready to respond after that poor effort in week one. Conversely, the Seahawks come into this game off of a 24-17 win where Seattle held the opposition to just 223 yards. Yes, it's only preseason but the fact is that teams have a little more hunger when they are off of a tough loss and this is validated by the fact that the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 in preseason action the last five times they have come off of a loss by a margin of 7 points or more in their prior game. That said, Minnesota is the play here as they bounce back from a 14-3 defeat last week.

EZWINNERS

San Francisco Giants -155

The Houston Astros continue to send rookie pitcher Jordan Lyles to the mound and Lyles continues to get hammered. Lyles is 1-7 on the year with an ERA of 5.31, but over his last two starts Lyles is 0-1 with an ERA of 12.19. In 10 1/3 innings of work in those last two games Lyles has allowed fourteen runs on nineteen hits and I expect even the offensively challenged Giants lineup to have success. The Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner actually pitches better on the road where he sports a 3.01 ERA and I expect him to pitch well against the Astros lineup that doesn't have very much punch to it. The Giants have won ten out of the last twelve meetings between these two teams and I expect that success to continue. Play on San Francisco.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Houston/ New Orleans Over 38: Last week it was all about defense for these teams as Houston allowed just 16 points and 310 yards vs the Jets, while Houston pounded San Francisco 24-3 and allowed just 234 yards in the process. This week I expect that to change with both offenses playing much if not all of the first half. Both of these offense are high powered and both will likely be in the top 10 in offense this year, so I really do look for both offenses to let it loose a bit, after looking somewhat sluggish last week. The Saints had just 288 yards, while the Texans had 221 yards. The Over is 5-0 in week 2 preseason games for Houston and I can easily see it going to 6-0.

3 UNIT PLAY

DENVER -4 over Buffalo:What a QB battle there is going on in Denver, as Orton and Tebow are looking for the starters spot, while Brady Quinn has been lurking in the back round with a solid camp so far. This Broncos offense rolled up 357 yards and 23 points vs a good Dallas defense last week and they will be going up against a Bills defense that will be without Merrimen, LB Kelvin Sheppard and CB Justin Rodgers. Word out of Bills camp is that the defense is way ahead of the offense right now, but that isn't really saying much as the bills offense put up just 190 total yards last week and 3 points. Denver's defense struggled vs the pass last week, but will be facing a combo of Fitzpatrick, Thigpen and Levi Smith, who combined to go 16 of 32 for just 101 yards last week, so they shoudln't have the same problems as they did vs the Cowboys. Buffaol's offense is a mess and their defense is hurting so I look for the QB battle of Denver to shine today and pick apart this Buffalo defense, while the bill offense continues it's poor play.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Milwaukee -117 over NY METS: The Brewers are 46-14 in their last 60 games as a favorite, including 6-1 in Wolf's last 7 starts as a favorite, while the Mets are 1-7 in Capuano's last 8 starts after they allowed 5 or more runs in their last game and 8-17 in their last 25 games as a home dog. The Brewers pitching has been amazing lately as they come in with a 1.50 ERA overall in their last 10 games, to go along with a WHIP of just 0.97. Randy Wolf looks to keep the Brewers winning today and he comes in with a 10-8 mark overall and a 3.30 ERA, while in his last 4 starts he is 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA. Randy has had great success vs the Mets, going 12-5 with a 3.21 ERA in 33 starts vs them, Including a 7-1 mark with a 2.82 in 16 starts in NY (Both stadiums). Now that's owning a team. He will be facing a Mets team that comes in averaging 3.6 rpg and hitting .235 in their last 10 games and in 4 games vs Brewers pitching this year they have averaged just 3.3 rpg. Pitching has been a problem for the Mets all year as they bring the 22nd ranked staff ERA (4.13) into this one, while in their last 10 games the ERA is 4.66 overall and 5.03 from their pen. Chris Capuano comes in 1-4 with a 4.68 ERA in his last 7 games, while at home this year he is just 3-5 with a 4.19 ERA. The Brewers offense has struggled some lately, but they should get going a bit vs Capuano, while Randy Wolf continues his excellent pitching vs the Mets.

2 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Cincinnati Under 8.5: Dontrelle will had a poor outing his last time out, but in his other 6 starts this year his ERA was at 3.40. Just 6 rpg have been scored in his road starts and he has a solid 3.24 ERA in those 3 starts, plus he has a solid 3.6 ERA in his last 9 starts vs the Pirates. Charlie Morton comes in dominant with an 0.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and he has a 3.84 Era at home, with just 6.84 rpg being scored in his home games. Charlie also has an 0.39 ERA in 3 starts vs the Reds this year, with 2 complete games. Pitching will win over hitting today.

1 UNIT PLAY

LA Dodgers/ Colorado Over 9.5: The Over is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings and in the last 8 games between these teams this year there has been an average of 11.9 rpg. Ted Lilly has a 4.17 ERA on the road this year and a 6.04 ERA in day starts, while Esmil Rogers has a 12.10 ERA in his 2 home starts this year. I see another game of DD scoring in Colorado today.

Patrick Webb

Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres

I like the Padres in this match up. Aaron Harang has been solid all season and is facing a pitcher in with some rough stats over the season and over his last 3 starts. Neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts, but I expect Florida to struggle even more than usual given the locale and pitcher they are facing. The Marlins have not scored more than 3 runs in the 5 meetings between the clubs this season. They are relying on basically 2 players to generate offense over the last 7 games and both of them (Peterson and Stanton) have only 6 combined at bats versus Harang. The Padres have 3 hitters who have been hot over the last 7 games. Six of the Padres regulars have scored 3+ runs over the last 7 games. The Marlins are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog from +110 to +150, 3-13 overall in their last 16 games and 0-4 in Hensley's last 4 starts.

Jack Clayton

Brewers at NY Mets
Pick: Brewers

Mets starter Chris Capuano (9-11, 4.58 ERA) has been hittable and the Mets are 2-6 in Capuano's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mets are also 8-19 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee has a terrific offense and Randy Wolf (10-8, 3.30 ERA) has been hot, with a 3-0 record and a 2.45 ERA his last three starts. Play the Brewers!

David Banks

Braves / Diamondbacks Over

A pair of teams currently in the running for postseason invitations is set to go Saturday night from Turner Field where Justin Upton and the Arizona Diamondbacks will look to continue showing the MLB world that they are for real when they battle Chipper Jones and the Atlanta Braves; first pitch is set for 7:10 ET on the MLB Network.

Though the D’Backs only managed one win in their battle of first place teams in the City of Brotherly Love earlier this week, the one they took was simply awesome after plating a pair in the top of the 9th to snatch a victory away from Roy Halladay. Even though they dropped the next two, San Francisco ended up dropping three of four to the Braves in tonight’s very same venue, so manager Kirk Gibson’s squad still owns a 2.5-game lead heading into Friday night’s series opener. Arizona has been very kind to its betting backers in 2011 reeling in a healthy $1806 return with $1212 of it coming in away from the desert.

As for Atlanta, it sports a solid six-game lead over the Giants atop the NL wild Card standings after squeaking out a 1-0 win over Tim Lincecum on Thursday night. The win moved manager Freddi Gonzalez’s squad to a solid 38-25 as a host on the year where they’ve made their wagering supporters a shade under $200 on the year; overall, Atlanta’s made $945 in profits and sits 21-games over .500 heading into Game 1 of this series.

Arizona swept these teams mini two-game series back in May winning 2-1 and 5-4 in extra innings. The final results played differently than what the overall season series has played to since 2008 as the road team has gone 9-9 in the team’s 18 prior meetings. The ‘over’ is 8-3 in these teams L/11 overall meetings and a perfect 5-0 the L/5 times these squads hooked up in Hot’Lanta. Tonight will mark the MLB debut of lefty Wade Miley who was called up to replace the ineffective Jason marquis in the starting rotation. Atlanta is 9-9 in Brandon Beachy’s 18 overall starts to date, and a very poor 0-7 against the L/7 +.500 opponents he threw at.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -130

Expect the Red Sox, who have won their last 4 games in Kansas City, to continue their dominance over the Royals, who have lost 6 of their last 7 overall. KC has been a pure fade with Paulino on the hill. The Royals are 0-6 in his last 6 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 home starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Red Sox are 6-2 in Wakefield's last 8 starts and 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a favorite. We'll take the Red Sox at a decent price.