SPORTS WAGERS
DENVER/Buffalo under 37½
There are so many reasons to like the under here and we’ll start with the Bills offense, or lack thereof. Buffalo is a defensive oriented team and that’s how they’re going to win games this season. Reports out of Buffalo this week is that the team had a very sluggish week of practice and the starters are not going to play much at all this week. In fact, last week the starting offense played just two series and this week they’re going to play three. The Bills are anxious to get back to Orchard Park and get in some good practice time and they’re talking about that as oppose to this game. They lost 10-3 against the Bears in Chicago in their preseason opener and you can expect a similar type game here. When we think of the Broncos we think of a team that loves to go to the air but that’s going to change this year. John Fox is the new head coach in Denver and he’s stressing the run game. The Broncos are going to try and establish the run all preseason and into the regular season. If the Broncos get a one-yard run on first down, expect them to run on second down too. This is a complete attitude switch and one the Broncs are going to utilize all preseason. Expect very little scoring in this game, as right now two these two teams are more interested in establishing new attitudes than they are in scoring points. Play: Buffalo/Denver under 37½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
KANSAS CITY +122 over Boston
Again, the Red Sox are just not the same without Ortiz and Youkilis. Yeah, they scored seven times last night but that was against an erratic Jeff Francis and it was no surprise. The surprise was that Andrew Miller pitched well. Fact is, the Red Sox are just 11-9 over its past 20 games and winning isn’t coming as easy anymore. There's no other way to put it — Tim Wakefield's 4.90 ERA is terrible, and it's not likely to get better. As a knuckleball pitcher, he won't get you strikeouts. His generally low hit rate and his control help keep his WHIP reasonable, but that doesn't translate to improved ERA. He pitches for the #1 offense in baseball, and yet has just six wins. It was a easily-overlooked May trade -- Felipe Paulino to the Royals for "cash considerations." Given the way Paulino has pitched since the deal (3.76 ERA) there could be some late-season "cash considerations" for bettors. Paulino, 27, had yo-yoed from starter to reliever in with both HOU and COL, but has realized his potential in KC's rotation. Paulino suffered from a nasty hit%/strand% history prior to 2011 that pointed to better results. And a sub-4.00 xERA ups the ante. Increased groundball% in 2011 is another positive step in trying to ascertain how bettable he is. Still largely an unknown, Paulino is a player that has quietly come into his own. He's already a solid mid-to-upper tier starter on skills alone and he has the offense to support him. Play: Kansas City +122 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +136 over OAKLAND
Henderson Alvarez is a short and athletic pitcher and owns a dazzling display of pitches. He generally focuses on efficiency and pitching to contact with his solid 87-95 mph fastball that features outstanding late movement. He’s already made two starts and didn’t look a bit out of place in either one. He’s so poised and he’s a guy to keep on your radar. Alvarez will absolutely love pitching at Oakland Coliseum and while his first two pitching lines don’t look great, a lot of his upcoming lines will. The guy can pitch and he has all the tools to do well at this level for a long time. Gio Gonzalez is running out of gas. His walks are way up over the past month (18 in 27 IP) and so too is his ERA over that same span (7.90). Gonzalez is 0-5 over his past five starts and pitching for the A’s, this combo does not warrant being a –145 favorite over the Jays. Play: Toronto +145 (Risking 2 units).
Michael Alexander
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
CINCINNATI is 8-14 (-8.9 Units) against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more this season
CINCINNATI is 17-28 (-14.1 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season
WILLIS is 8-16 (-15.4 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Brewers -121
The Brewers have the best home record in baseball, and while their road record is only so-so, they have earned more wins as the visiting team than their opponent, the New York Mets, have as the home team.
The Brew-Crew started off slow on the road this season, but they've now won 11 of their last 16 road games. Looking at their last seven games, the Brewers are 6-1, but they haven't been hitting well at all. It's their pitching that has been incredible. Milwaukee is scoring just 2.6 runs/game and hitting .237 as a team over the last week, but their pitching has held opposing lineups to an incredible 1.3 runs per game on a .187 batting average.
Randy Wolf has been a big part of the Brewers' recent success. He's won his last four starts overall and, despite a poor showing against St. Louis (which was still a win), he is 3-0 w/a 2.45 ERA over his last 3 decisions.
Former Brewer Chris Capuano takes the mound for the Mets Saturday with an underwhelming 4.58 ERA. Capuano hasn't won in his last 3 appearances and has given up 8 earned runs over 12 innings in his last two starts.
Great price here on Milwaukee, who is an easy team right now to follow with how well their pitching staff is performing.
Rob Vinciletti
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have won 7 of 10 vs the Reds this season and made a valiant effort last night coming back from a big deficit only to see the Reds score 3 in the top of the ninth to seal an 11-8 win. Today the Pirates have C. Morton taking the Mound. Morton has been superb of late with a 0.40 era over his last 3 starts. In his starts vs the Reds he has been tremendous allowing just 1 run in 23 innings. Morton has won 7 of 10 vs Divisional teams as well this season. Tonight he opposes The D train Dontrelle Willis. In his limited road starts this season the Reds have lost all 3 times. In his last 2 outings here in Pittsburgh. Willis has allowed 8 runs in 8 innings. The Reds have lost 14 of 21 as a road favorite from -100 to -125. The Pirates may be seven games under .500 but they are five games over vs Left handed pitching. Look for the Pirates to even the series here tonight.
Steve Janus
Cleveland Indians +131
The Indians are showing great value on Saturday at +131. Cleveland needs this win to move within 1.5 games of the Tigers in the AL Central. I really like Indians starter David Huff at this price, as he is 1-1 with a 0.51 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in three starts this season. The Tigers will counter with Doug Fister, who has not pitched great since coming over from the Mariners. Fister is 4-13 with a 3.58 ERA on the season, but is just 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.704 WHIP in his last three starts.
Cleveland is 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss and 11-2 after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 seasons. Fister on the other hand is just 3-11 as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -141
The Tigers have won 18 of their last 21 at home against the Tribe, and I look for them to extend the streak Saturday. The Indians are a lousy 3-13 in Huff's last 16 starts, 2-10 in his last 12 road starts and 1-6 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. We'll take the Tigers.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New York Yankees -139
The Yanks are 21-3 against the Twins the last 3 seasons, including 10-1 in Minnesota. Looking back further, the Yankees are 61-19 in the last 80 meetings in the series. Plus, NY is 6-0 in Burnett's last 6 starts vs. the Twins while the Twins are 0-6 in Liriano's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees. We'll take the Yanks.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Brewers -121
The Brewers have the best home record in baseball, and while their road record is only so-so, they have earned more wins as the visiting team than their opponent, the New York Mets, have as the home team.
The Brew-Crew started off slow on the road this season, but they've now won 11 of their last 16 road games. Looking at their last seven games, the Brewers are 6-1, but they haven't been hitting well at all. It's their pitching that has been incredible. Milwaukee is scoring just 2.6 runs/game and hitting .237 as a team over the last week, but their pitching has held opposing lineups to an incredible 1.3 runs per game on a .187 batting average.
Randy Wolf has been a big part of the Brewers' recent success. He's won his last four starts overall and, despite a poor showing against St. Louis (which was still a win), he is 3-0 w/a 2.45 ERA over his last 3 decisions.
Former Brewer Chris Capuano takes the mound for the Mets Saturday with an underwhelming 4.58 ERA. Capuano hasn't won in his last 3 appearances and has given up 8 earned runs over 12 innings in his last two starts.
Great price here on Milwaukee, who is an easy team right now to follow with how well their pitching staff is performing.
Bob Wingerter
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Cincinnati Reds are one of the more disappointing teams in baseball this season and when we see them hit like they did on Friday it makes them even more confusing, Joey Votto, Ryan Hanigan, and Brandon Phillips each homered as the Reds scored 11 runs off of 14 hits. On the mound Homer Bailey allowed six hits and three earned runs while striking out six over five innings of work to get a no decision as it was Travis Wood who got his sixth win of the year and Francisco Cordero got his 25th save. For Saturday afternoon’s game Cincinnati starts Dontrelle Willis who has yet to win a game this year. For the season Willis has allowed 41 hits and 18 earned runs while striking out 28 over 39.2 innings of work. Cincinnati is 3-5 in their lst eight road games, 1-6 in their last seven road games against a right handed starter, and 2-5 in Willis’ last seven starts. Cincinnati is 2-6 in the last eight meetings of these two.
Teddy Covers
Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Diamondbacks
My clients and I have backed Arizona consistently in one role this year – off a loss, or even better, off a handful of losses. The D-backs have been exceptional at avoiding losing streaks. We cashed a ticket supporting the D-backs against Clayton Kershaw the last time they lost three in a row. There’s absolutely no reason to lay off them here against another quality hurler in Brandon Beachy. Plain and simple, this is Arizona’s best role, and we’re getting to support them here at a very attractive underdog price.
Off a pair of losses in Philadelphia followed by a 4-2 defeat to open their series in Atlanta last night, the D-backs are very much worth supporting in this price range! Rookie Wade Miley – the D-backs ‘Minor League Pitcher of the Year’ in 2010 -- makes his big league debut following an impressive stint at AAA. Miley struck out 56 batters while walking only 16 in 54.1 innings at Triple A, with a very reasonable 3.67 ERA. Facing a Braves lineup that has hit just .223 against southpaws for the season, we can expect success from the rookie here.
Even after losing three in a row, the D-backs are still 7-3 in their last ten ballgames. Their last losing streak longer than three games came all the way back in the second week of May. The D-backs have been enormously profitable to support on the highway all year long, a Top 5 team in terms of road profitability. Meanwhile, the Braves are just 3-5 in Beachy’s last nine trips to the hill, losing repeatedly as chalk during that span. Take the D-backs.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies as they take on the Washington Nationals set to start at 7:10 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Last nights 5* losing play on the Phillies was certainly an unusual game. Due to sever thunderstorms Roy Oswalt did not start the game and Nationals scheduled starter Hernandez did start. The Phillies had an apparent 4-2 win entering the ninth with Ryan Madson taking care of business. He blew only his second save opportunity of the season as the Nationals scored six ER and ended the game with a Ryan Zimmerman walk-off grand slam home run. The Phillies have the best record in the majors and have a 7 1/2 game lead over Atlanta in the National League East. Atlanta leads the National League Wild Card race by seven games over the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants. As they have all season, Philadelphia will rebound tonight and get another win. Roy Oswalt will start tonight and will be matched up against John Lannan, who sees Philadelphia as a nightmare. He is just 1-11 with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.743 WHIP in 15 career starts against Philadelphia. He was the losing pitcher in last Saturday?s 11-3 Philadelphia win. In that game he went just three innings allowing seven runs and five walks, but only one run was earned. Still, having to face Philadelphia off a ninth inning loss is not going to go well at all for Lannan. The left-handed throwing Lannan also injured his eft knee in the start at Philadelphia. being left-handed the right leg is the one that strides and takes on the torque of the throwing motion. So, this minor injury will have any effect in this game. The Phillies bats will have an effect on this game. Lannan has allowed a .316 batting average to the current members of the Phillies in their respective careers. Despite being left-handed hitters, Chase Utley has batted .400 (12-for-30) and Raul Ibanez has batted .480 (12-for-25) against Lannan. Hunter Pence will be protecting Utley and Howard ahead of him in the lineup and Ibanez will do the same batting behind Pence. Oswalt has a tremendous curve ball that was very effective in his last start. Batters are hitting just .176 on that pitch and he will throw it nearly twice as much to left-handed batters than right-handed ones. This is very rare at any level of baseball as a curve ball is effective with it?s movement running away from the batter and not into the wheel house. However, he has such great control that he can throw the curve for his ?out? pitch and target the outer half of the plate. For right-handed batters he prefers to use a hard and late breaking slider. Batters are hitting just .230 on that pitch and he throws it 14% of the time whether behind or ahead in the count. So, the batter has to be aware that on any given pitch the slider could be thrown and this serves to keep right-handed batters guessing. Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel is 102-54 (+31.0 Units) against the money line facing an National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450.
OC DOOLEY
Tennessee Titans +3
Perhaps no team in the NFL was more behind the eight-ball than Tennessee due to the late departure of long time head coach and franchise fixture Jeff Fisher. The Titans stayed in-house and replaced him with offensive line coach Mike Munchak but he ended up cleaning house with most of the staff. The late hires by Munchak made in late February and early March meant that in many instances players and coaches did NOT get the chance to meet one another immediately after the lockout. That meant a scramble to install brand news schemes on both sides of the football with a pair of new offensive and defensive coordinators. Despite have a severely limited training camp and being without two of their best offensive weapons in star rusher Chris Johnson (holdout) and Kenny Britt (hamstring), the Titans looked both better and sharper in the preseason opener than they did for nearly the entire 2010 campaign when clashes between Fisher and many of his personnel were rampant. While Fisher basically wore out his welcome the 2011 players have immediately responded to the chance of approach under Munchak. Not only does he run a tighter ship, the players now know exactly what is expected of them on a daily basis. Actually both players and coaches have quickly adopted Munchak’s calm personality which is direct but under control. That calm showed a lot on both sides of the football last weekend including the Tennessee defense being called for ZERO penalties and having 2 takeaways which have been rare during the past several seasons. On offense the Titans at least have some veteran quarterback stability with Matt Hasselbeck who is being backed up by the talented rookie Jake Locker. In the preseason opener Tennessee won by a 14-3 count even though the first-teamers saw limited action. Tonight the Titans regulars are slated to possibly the entire first half. There is no discounting the talent in St. Louis and the Rams certainly were dominant in a 33-10 romp of Indianapolis one week ago. However I refuse to overreact as the Colts continue to show that they do not care about preseason games including last night’s 16-3 home loss against Washington. From the database here is a whopping 81-PERCENT PRESEASON SYSTEM (21-5 since 1993) which plays ON road teams like Tennessee after a game where the defense allowed “9 or less” points on the scoreboard, against an opponent coming off a double-digit margin of victory. That 21-5 ATS exhibition angle supports the underdog Titans who now operate with a positive mindset