John Ryan
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St. Louis Rams vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: St. Louis Rams +3
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Currently, neither of these teams have any true hopes of reaching the playoffs. Win total odds at 5 1/2 for both Cleveland and the Rams. However, You have to lay 3/1 odds to play ‘under’ Rams win total and conversely lay -125 to ‘over’ Browns win total. As a win total bet, I do like the ‘Over’ Rams bet given their schedule and low public expectations. I also like the Rams +3 points in this game as well and is supported by the following system that has produced amazing results with a 23-4 ATS record since 1993 for 85.2% winners. Play on dogs or pick off a home loss by 10 or more points with the game taking place in the third week of the preseason. Take the Rams.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Ravens @ Redskins
PICK: Under 38.5
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
Baltimore saw the total go "under" the number in three of four pre-season contests in 2009.
The Ravens won 17-12 last week over Carolina which saw the total go "under" the number.
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Baltimore's defense was sharp and I expect it to have another big day on Saturday; it had two sacks, an interception and a fumble recovery last week.
On the other side of the field: Washington saw the total go "under" the number in two of four pre-season contests in 2009.
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The Redskins demolished the Bills 42-17 last week, which saw the total go well "over" the posted number.
Washington was also sharp defensively for the most part last week, even though it didn't have to be.
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The Redskins scored their most points in a pre-season game since 1988, but it is clearly facing a different team this week in the Ravens.
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Bottom line: This total is inflated after last week's rout by the Redskins over the hapless Bills; great value on the UNDER in this situation.
Carlo Campanella
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St Louis vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -3
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ST. Louis lost their Preseason home opener, 28-7, to Minnesota and looked liked they haven't improved much since ending the regular season at 1-15. The Rams only score last week came from a punt returned for a touchdown while only gaining 188 total offensive yards. QB AJ Feeley is currently the Rams' starter, but he passed for only 19 yards and completed 3 of 6 passes. While the Rams' will get help offensively as staring RB Jackson will see some limited playing time on Saturday, their defense allowed 414 total yards to Minnesota, who was without starting QB Farve and RB Petersen. With the Browns rebuilding under HC Mangini, expect to see a healthy rotation between QBs Delhomme, Wallace and Ratcliff and RBs Harrison, Hillis and Davis. The Browns scored 27 points on the road against a tough Green Bay defense and they'll only get better in front of their home crowd as this new roster begins to gel.
Marc Lawrence
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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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We go right to the Playbook Preseason Football Newsletter for this diddy. Much like Roman Polanski needs a 14-year old - bottle of Scotch, that is - some coaches need to win in order to feel better about themselves. We have a feeling that’s the case with Tampa’s Raheem Morris who suffered through a three-win season in his rookie campaign. Including pre-season, the Bucs were only able to muster one win in their ten efforts in front of the home faithful. Like his previous predecessors, KC’s Todd Haley doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to impress before September. Since 2004, the Chiefs have delivered only four wins in 25 contests, while posting a hair-raising 3-23 ATS mark - including Haley’s 0-5 SU and ATS record since his inaugural debut last season. Look for the cannon to sound at the ‘New Sombrero’ as the Bucs improve to 9-3 SU in pre-season home openers and 4-0-1 ATS in this series. Drink up! We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.
Steve Merril
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Indians vs. Tigers
Play: Under 8.5
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Detroit’s Max Scherzer has enjoyed his August so far. The righty is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA this month while giving up just four runs and 14 hits in 20 innings pitched. He managed to shut down the Rays, Yankees, and White Sox. Yes, the righty has lost twice to Cleveland this season, but he has improved since then and Cleveland's offense just isn't consistently good. Asdrubal Cabrera (0-3), Jayson Nix (0-3), Michael Brantley (0-3), and Matt LaPorta (0-2) all are looking for their first hits against Scherzer. The Indians were shutout by Armando Galarraga last night, and with that result, these two teams have played 8 Unders in 13 games this season. Detroit's bullpen has an ERA under 4.00 at home this season while blowing only one save there. Josh Tomlin has been great for the Indians this season. He's 1-2 with a 2.96 ERA in four starts which have all gone Under the total. He's been road tested this season after facing both the Jays and Red Sox away from home. The righty has yet to face the Tigers in his brief career, but that will give him advantage over Detroit’s hitters tonight. Detroit has gone Under the total in 33 of their 63 home games this season, and since we expect another low-scoring game tonight, we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Indians and Tigers in this game.
Rob Vinciletti
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Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1.5
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The Yankees have won 38 of their 41 home games by 2 or more runs. They are 9-1 as a home favorite in this range while Seattle is 0-7 as a road dog in this range. Seattle scores 2.9 rpg game in day games while the Yanks average over 6 runs in day games. Yankee starter J. Vazquez pitched 7 shutout innings in his last start vs Seattle. Mariners starter Vargas is just 3-7 on the road. Yankees should win this one by more than a run.
Sean Murphy
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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We may be laying a lot of chalk to back the Twins on Saturday, but in my opinion, it's well worth the risk.
With last night's win, the Twins now own an incredible 25-8 record dating back to July 16th. They've gone 12-3 over their last 15 contests.
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The Angels are headed in the opposite direction. They've lost four of their last five games, and now find themselves eight games back of the first place Rangers in the A.L. West. They've won only six of their last 24 road games.
Trevor Bell will get the call for the Angels on Saturday. He owns an excellent 29:11 strikeout to walk ratio in 38 1/3 innings of work this season, but that's where the positive stats end.
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Opponents are hitting .333 and slugging .451 against the 23-year old right-hander. He has settled down a little here in August, but has still yet to record a victory in any of his three starts this season.
Keep in mind, Bell struggled last year as well, with opponents hitting a lofty .412 against him in 20 1/3 innings pitched. He posted a 9.74 ERA in eight appearances, including four starts.
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Kevin Slowey will counter for the Twins. He's been outstanding over his last four starts, allowing only 12 hits and five earned runs in 28 2/3 innings of work. He's recorded a 21:5 strikeout to walk ratio over that stretch.
In Slowey's last outing he was lifted from the game after seven no-hit innings, as his pitch count reached 106. It was a cautious move from Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, but the right one, as they need his elbow to stay healthy down the stretch.
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Slowey has been fantastic at home throughout his career, and that's been the case this year as well. He's 7-3 with a 3.39 ERA at Target Field, holding opponents to a .244 batting average. In two August starts, spanning 14 2/3 innings, Slowey has limited opponents to a ridiculous .085 average at the plate.
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Both of these teams are perennial contenders in their respective divisions, but the Twins are actually playing like it right now. The Angels were no match for them on Friday, and I suspect we'll see a similar story unfold on Saturday afternoon. Take Minnesota.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -153
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Lincecum is really struggling. He's 0-3 with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.071 over his last 3 starts. Lincecum has had success against the Cards in the past, but he clearly doesn't have it going right now. Meanwhile, the Cards have won 6 of Carpenter's last 7 starts, and he hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those 7 outings. Plus, Carpenter has had plenty of rest prior to this start, and the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 starts when pitching on 6 days' rest. After 5 straight defeats, look for the Carpenter to lead the Cards to victory tonight.
Jim Feist
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Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins
Take: Florida Marlins
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Houston is just awful on the road, and part of the reason is offense, ranked second to last in the NL in runs scored. Their last road trip the Astros ended it with 4 straight losses, allowing 30 runs. Florida has home field and a winning record the last five starts made by Chris Volstad. He is far better at home than on the road, with a 3.61 ERA in this stadium. Play the Marlins.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -159
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With Jimenez on the hill, I'll back the Rockies tonight. Colorado's sensational righty is 17-3 with an ERA of 2.59 on the season. The Rockies have won each of his last 5 starts against Arizona, and 3 of those wins have come this season. The Rockies are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series and 7-1 in Jimenez's last 8 starts during game 2 of a series. In addition, Arizona is just 9-34 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season, losing to these clubs by an average score of 3.7 to 6.5. Take the Rockies.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -130
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System Play - plays on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (BOSTON), average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good AL starter (ERA <=4.20), with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start, are 47-11 the last 5 seasons, including 10-3 this season. In addition, the Red Sox have won 9 straight games against Toronto when Matsuzaka get the start. Take the Sox as they bounce back strong from yesterday's embarrassing defeat.
EZWINNERS
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Colorado Rockies -$159
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The Rockie's ace pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez has been stuck on 17 wins for two straight starts despite allowing just four earned runs over fifteen innings pitched in those games. Jimenez had a couple of rough outings after the All-Star break but he is now back into Cy-Young form. Jimenez has 153 strikeouts and a 2.59 ERA this season and has had ten or more strikeouts in a game eight times this season, including a career best thirteen strikeouts on May 3 at San Diego. Jimenez has dominated the Diamondbacks in three starts this season posting a 3-0 record with a microscopic 0.86 ERA and I look for another dominating performance in this game. Barry Enright gets the start for the D-Backs in this game. Last Sunday marked the first time in five starts Enright has not pitched into at least the sixth inning. Enright still has not allowed more than three runs in any one of his nine starts this season, but his margin for error is very small in this game. Enright is not much of a strikeout pitcher and I expect the Rockies to give Jimenez the run support that he needs to pick up his eighteenth win. The Rockies are 5-1 in Jimenez's last six road starts against the Diamondbacks and I expect that to continue here. Play on Colorado.
Gill Alexander
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TOR (+120) vs BOS
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Romero has a 3.46FIP and 3.63xFIP (16th best in MLB) w a 0.62 HR/9IP rate (25th best in MLB) and 54.2% ground ball rate (10th best in MLB). Daisuke has a 3.95FIP and a 4.65xFIP w a 0.74 HR/9IP rate and 32.3% ground ball rate. While Daisuke doesn't have enough IP to qualify for league leaderboards, that GB% is on pace for 3rd worst in baseball. That matters at Fenway against the #1 HR lineup in MLB in the Jays who have 186 HRs on the season. Simply put, the more balls in air, the more will fly out of the park. Though Romero has a lifetime 8.51ERA in 7 career starts v Bos, he gets to face a Sox lineup without Dustin Pedroia, who has gone back on the DL. Plus, while Romero has had trouble v Bos at Rogers Centre this season, at Fenway, that Matsuzaka ground ball rate swings this advantage to the Blue Jays. That is even more pronounced w Daisuke entering this ballgame w a 5.84ERA in his last 2 outings. Much like we successfully faded Jered Weaver at Fenway and Matt Cain at Citizens Bank Park this past week, we look to exploit the ground ball-challenged Daisuke against the power surge of the Jays today.
DUNKEL INDEX
NY Jets at Carolina
The Jets look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 August games. New York is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets.
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Game 407-408: Baltimore at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 121.381; Washington 122.811
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over
Game 409-410: Pittsburgh at NY Giants (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 124.245; NY Giants 120.692
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 30
Vegas Line: Pick; 34
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh; Under
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Game 411-412: Miami at Jacksonville (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.426; Jacksonville 123.253
Dunkel Line: Even; 32
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Under
Game 413-414: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 116.212; Tampa Bay 121.594
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 34
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-2); Over
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Game 415-416: St. Louis at Cleveland (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 119.264; Cleveland 122.941
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3); Under
Game 417-418: Houston at New Orleans (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 119.754; New Orleans 128.191
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pick; 41
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans; Over
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Game 419-420: NY Jets at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 121.498; Carolina 119.469
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Pick; 34
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets; Over
Game 421-422: Oakland at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.291; Chicago 124.195
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3; 31
Vegas Line: Pick; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago; Under
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Game 423-424: Dallas at San Diego (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.504; San Diego 124.794
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Under
Game 425-426: Detroit at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 119.086; Denver 123.744
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3); Over
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Game 427-428: Green Bay at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 123.668; Seattle 127.616
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 1; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-1); Under
MLB
Tampa Bay at Oakland
The Rays look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-4 loss and build on their 5-1 record in David Price's last 6 starts as a road favorite. Tampa Bay is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125)
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.289; Cubs (Gorzelanny) 14.428
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); N/A
Game 953-954: NY Mets at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 14.103; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.760
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); Under
Game 955-956: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.533; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.534
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Over
Game 957-958: Houston at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.159; Florida (Volstad) 14.442
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+110); Under
Game 959-960: San Diego at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 17.067; Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.947
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Over
Game 961-962: San Francisco at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.076; St. Louis (Carpenter) 14.456
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+135); Under
Game 963-964: Colorado at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 13.252; Arizona (Enright) 14.989
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+150); Over
Game 965-966: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.456; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.104
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 16.302; NY Yankees (Vazquez) 15.472
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-250); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+210); Under
Game 969-970: LA Angels at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Bell) 14.733; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.531
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-200); Over
Game 971-972: Texas at Baltimore (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lee) 15.080; Baltimore (Bergesen) 15.843
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-240); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+200); Over
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Tomlin) 14.128; Detroit (Scherzer) 14.940
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185); Under
Game 975-976: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.793; Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.677
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Over
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 14.596; Kansas City (Humber) 14.757
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Under
Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Oakland (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.342; Oakland (Anderson) 16.363
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Under
Game 981-982: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (11:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Pena) 15.217; Kansas City (Bullington) 14.135
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
WNBA
Los Angeles at Seattle
The Storm look to take advantage of an LA team that is coming off a 98-91 win over Minnesota last night and is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win. Seattle is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7)
Game 601-602: Chicago at Tulsa (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 107.597; Tulsa 101.677
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 6; 167
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 5; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5); Over
Game 603-604: Los Angeles at Seattle (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 107.452; Seattle 115.539
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 8; 145
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 7; 150
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-7); Under
Tom Freese
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Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
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Tampa Bay starter David Price is 16-7 in his team starts this year. Price has allowed 5 runs total in his last 3 starts. The Rays are 5-1 their last 6 games as favorites and they are 24-9 their last 33 games vs. lefty starters. Tampa Bay is 11-3 in the last 14 starts made by Price vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland starter Brett Anderson has lost 3 of his last 4 starts. The Athletics are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. lefty starters and they are 1-7 their last 8 games as underdogs. Brett Anderson is 1-5 his last 6 starts as an underdog and he is 2-5 with four days of rest.