Karl Garrett
Second in a row on the road for Kansas City who were bested 20-10 in their preseason opener last Friday at Atlanta. Tonight I expect a similar final against a Tampa Bay team that NEEDS to get any kind of win at all after enduring a 3 win tally last season under first year coach Raheem Morris.
The Bucs were on the short side of last week's 10-7 preseason final at Miami, but were able to cover plus the points as the underdog. Look for a little more offense from Tampa in this one, as Kansas City's Todd Haley has shown that he is not a big proponent of these practice games as evidenced by KC's 0-4 straight up and against the spread mark in last year's preseason.
The Chiefs are also winless at 0-7 against the spread the last 7 seasons in Game 2 of the preseason, and are an overall 4-22 straight up - 3-22-1 against the spread their last 26 preseason contests!
Coach Morris needs to show the home-faithful the Bucanneers know how to actually win a game at home. Tonight is his golden opportunity.
G-Man on Tampa minus the points.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Chuck O'Brien
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes in NFL preseason action, as I’ll lay the chalk with the Browns against the visiting Rams.
Don’t look now, but Cleveland has won five consecutive games going back to the end of last season, and it has covered the spread in its last eight in a row. That includes last week’s 27-24 win at Green Bay as a three-point underdog, with the Cleveland defense profiting from three turnovers. Tonight, that defense faces an anemic Rams offense that managed just 150 total yards in last week’s 28-7 home loss to the Vikings. And that one touchdown came on a 93-yard first-quarter punt return that gave St. Louis a 7-0 lead. (Going back to last December, the Rams have scored 13 points or less in six straight games and averaged just 10.3 ppg in their last eight).
Rams rookie QB Sam Bradford, who will probably see extensive action tonight, looked like a guy who hadn’t thrown a pass in a competitive game since last October, going 6-for-13 for 57 yards and he was sacked four times (in all, the Rams’ passers were dropped six times by the Vikes). By comparison, if you take away rookie Colt McCoy’s ugly numbers (5-for-10, 25 yards, two INTs), the Browns’ other three QBs last week went a combined 17-for-30 for 189 yards and no turnovers against Green Bay. And we won’t have to worry about McCoy in this game, as he suffered a thumb injury is out several weeks.
Cleveland coach Eric Mangini told the media on Thursday that his starters go through the first half and “it could carry into the second half.” That’s another big edge for the Browns, whose first-stringers are much farther along than those of the Rams, who by the way are 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS in preseason road games since 2005.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Bobby Maxwell
I've got a football FREE winner for you tonight as I go with the home-team Chargers to get the win and cover over the Cowboys in San Diego.
The San Diego offense, expected to carry this team to the AFC West title this year, looked quite sharp a week ago in beating up the Chicago Bears 25-10. It wasn’t one particular group that was sharp, it was everybody throughout the night, be first team or third team.
Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers had 62 yards passing and a TD and rookie RB Ryan Mathews, expected to fill the shoes for LaDainian Tomlinson, was solid with about 50 yards on the ground and a couple of catches. He carried the ball nine times, so San Diego wasn’t shy about getting him some early work. And I don’t think they’ll limit his carries tonight against Dallas. Look for him to have about the same number tonight and probably even more against the Saints in Week 3 of the preseason.
San Diego’s defense was solid against the Bears, allowing just the 10 points, giving up just three to the first unit of Chicago. Dallas isn’t going to pose much of a threat as they couldn’t muster a touchdown at home against the Raiders last weekend.
The Cowboys got no help on the ground last week and through the air they were just too conservative. Dallas knows it doesn’t have to show anything in the preseason to still be the division favorite and I don’t see them opening it up much tonight.
The Chargers’ QB rotation is outstanding as I like backup Billy Volek and think he can really hurt second and third units in the preseason. They are loaded with receivers but of course everyone talks about Vincent Jackson and the fact he’s not there. But adding Josh Reed as a third receiver is a great move for them and gives them some insurance going into the season.
Dallas’ offense hasn’t gotten into the end zone in two preseason games and I’m not so sure it will happen a lot tonight. The Chargers stifled the Bears last week and they can do the same to the Cowboys tonight. Play San Diego.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Joel Tyson
3 straight comp play winners after the Mariners-Yankees held under the total last night in baseball.
Thought for sure the Detroit Lions would enter this preseason with a little more "urgency" what with the fact this team has been a door mat for seasons too numerous to count, but last week's 23-7 loss at Pittsburgh tells me that this team is still on the road to nowhere.
Denver at least showed some offense in thier Sunday loss at Cincinnati, putting up 24 points against the Bengals. Preseason home opener now for the Broncos, and with Orton, Quinn, and Tebow battling it out for the right to be the regular season starter, I expect the host to outduel the trio of Stafford, Hill, and Stanton.
I think Denver is going places under Josh McDaniels, I wish I could say the same about 2nd year Detroit coach Jim Schwartz, but after what I witnessed last week in Pittsburgh, I am not so sure.
Another road game, another road loss for the Lions.
Take Denver minus the points.
3♦ DENVER
Stephen Nover Comp
My free pick hot streak continued last night with the underdog Mariners shutting out the Yankees in the Bronx, improving my run to 58-38-1 with my free baseball plays.
Tonight I'm going with the Astros for my complimentary selection.
The key to this handicap is the pitching matchup of Wandy Rodriguez versus Chris Volstad. Rodriguez is vastly superior, but the Astros are the underdog.
Florida is a hot and cold team. Right now the Marlins are hot. But Rodriguez can shut the free-swinging, undisciplined Marlins down.
Quietly Rodriguez has been as solid as any pitcher during his past six starts compiling a 1.74 ERA. He has a 1.33 ERA during his past three outings spanning 20 1/3 innings.
Rodriguez is 3-1 lifetime versus Florida in five starts with a 2.23 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 21 innings.
Volstad is 6-9 with a 4.91 ERA. He's a borderline major league pitcher right now, trying to keep from going back to the minors. Volstad has surrendered nine runs in his last 10 innings.
He has a 4.82 career ERA against the Astros in three starts.
The Marlins are without suspended catcher Ronny Paulino.
3♦ HOUSTON
Preseason football can be a real crap shoot. So much is depended on the quarterback rotation. Keeping that in mind, the Raiders are my complimentary selection against the Bears for tonight's game.
The Raiders have had extra time to rest for this matchup having last played nine days ago. The Raiders opened their preseason with a 17-9 victory on the road against Dallas.
The Raiders appear much improved this season. Their defense looked good versus Dallas, although the Cowboys were on a very short week.
The Bears did not look good in their preseason opener, losing on the road to the Chargers, 25-10. Jay Cutler only played eight snaps.
Chicago coach Lovie Smith would like to get Cutler more work. The Bears are switching their offense with Mike Martz taking over as offensive coordinator. Right now the Bears' timing is off and their defense hasn't come around.
Cutler will play more than eight plays, but the Bears have to be careful with him since an injury would derail their season. Cutler figures to play around 1 1/2 quarters. After that the Bears are in deep trouble.
Backup Bears quarterback Caleb Hanie is out with a shoulder injury. Rookie Dan LeFevour is slated to play the majority of the game. He's lost right now in the pro game. Matt Gutierrez may see some late action, too. He's had only three practices with the Bears.
The Raiders' quarterback rotation is much more stable with Jason Campbell followed by veteran Kyle Boller and Colt Brennan, who has looked comfortable in the Raiders' camp.
2♦ OAKLAND
Scott Delaney
Yes, San Diego's Kevin Correia is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA since the All-Star break, and has posted a 2.00 ERA while winning his last three starts, but the Brewers have a little momentum right now, and I think he's going to be in trouble if he ends up on the slab.
I am not listing either pitcher in this game, as I think Milwaukee has enough momentum with its three-game win streak.
Besides, Correia is a modest 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA in five starts versus Milwaukee. And the Brewers had no trouble snapping the Padres' five-game winning streak with a 10-6 win last night.
And keep in mind the Padres boast a major-league best 3.24 ERA. Last night was the most runs they've allowed since a 10-8 loss to Colorado on July 9.
Take the Brewers, who make it four straight tonight.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Karl Garrett
On a 15-11-1 free play run as I enter action for Saturday.
Saturday starts and Chris Carpenter = UNDER the total!
The last 20 times St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter has made a Saturday start, the Cardinals are 16-3-1 under the posted total. So 80% of the time Carpenter has trotted to the hill on a Saturday, the under has been the play.
I don't know about you, but the G-Man will take 80% winners any day of the week, and with Carpenter matched up against Tim Lincecum, I have a feeling this evening's affair is also going to land in the under column.
It is almost impossible to believe that Lincecum is 0-3 with an ERA of 9 over his last 3 starts, so with that thought in mind I don't think there is any way in the world Lincecum gets roughed up for a 4th straight time. No way!
These teams have met 4 times now this year, and 3 of the 4 have stayed under the posted total. Dating back to last year, the teams have played low against each other in 5 of their 6 meetings.
Just can't go against those trends.
Play the under.
2♦ UNDER
Joel Tyson
3 straight comp play winners after the UNDER came through between the M's and Yankees last night.
Today I have to go OVER the total between these teams, as I think the New York offense which had plated 26 runs in 3 games prior to gettting stonewalled by Felix Hernandez last night will once again resurface.
Vargas is nowhere near as tough as Hernandez, and even though he has been on a roll, I look for New York to be able to get a few runs off of him after getting blanked last night.
As for Javier Vazquez, the leash will be short on him, as he did exit his last start after just 4 innings worked. Vazquez has a season ERA of 4.90, and his fragile psyche will be on display in front of the home crowd today.
Seattle has played over in 4 of their last 6, while New York has been over the total in 3 of their last 4.
This one will go over the total.
2♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
I'm on a 3-1 run with my last four FREE plays on the diamond and I've got another winner for you tonight as i go with the Rays on the road in Oakland, taking on the A's.
Oakland has beaten the Rays four straight times and I just don’t see it happening in this one with Tampa sending ace and All-Star starter David Price (15-5, 2.85 ERA) to the mound in Northern California.
Price is 1-0 in his last three games with a 2.50 ERA. And he’s been rock-solid all season. He’s held the opponents to three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts, and back on Monday he held the Rangers to two runs in six innings of a 6-4 win at home. His last roadie was August 9 when he limited the Tigers to two runs in five innings.
Price faced these A’s back on May 7 in Oakland and dominated as expected, giving up just one unearned run on three hits in 7.2 innings of a 4-1 Tampa victory.
Lefty Brett Anderson (3-4, 2.89 ERA) goes on the mound for the A’s, making his fifth start since coming off the DL. The A’s have dropped his last two decisions, falling to the Mariners and the Blue Jays.
Oakland is just 1-7 as an underdog and 2-5 when Anderson pitches after four days of rest. Tampa is riding streaks of 17-9 against winning teams, 24-9 against southpaws, 5-1 as a favorite, 10-4 with Price starting on the road an 20-7 in his last 27 starts overall.
While Tampa has struggled to win in Oakland, I don’t forsee any problems coming tonight with Price on the mound. Play the Rays in this one.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
BRETT ATKINS
Make it four straight days of winners here with my free picks after the Bengals roared back and destroyed the Eagles in their exhibition game Friday night. Tonight, I am back on the gridiron for another comp play as I go with the Dolphins on the road in Jacksonville against the Jaguars.
Miami has not been happy with the first-team offense the entire preseason. There have been too many mistakes in practice, at scrimmages and in the preseason opener against Tampa last week.
Tonight in Jacksonville, Dolphins' coach Tony Sparano is going to play the first unit likely the entire first half to work out some kinks. Penalties, missed blocks and dropped passes all contributed to that ugly 10-7 win over the Bucs a week ago, but you know Sparano expects flawless execution from these guys, just like he got in his first season when the Dolphins stunned teams to win the AFC East.
Starter Chad Henne will go through the first half before giving way to backup Tyler Thigpen, who looked pretty good in the exhibition opener a week ago.
Jacksonville surrendered 28 points to the Eagles last week and defense could be this team’s problem all season. QB David Garrard did not look sharp in the opener against the Eagles, but his backup Luke McCown threw for 244 yards and three TDs. Garrard will play most of the opening half but he’ll need his line to block, something they didn’t do well last season.
Play the road ‘dog tonight and go with the Dolphins.
2♦ MIAMI
ROCKETMAN
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NY Jets vs. Carolina
Play: NY Jets -1
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NY Jets are 26-12 ATS since 1993 in all games when the line is +3 to -3. NY Jets are 10-1 ATS since 1993 in a road game when the total is between 32 1/2 and 35 points. Carolina is 1-5 SU and ATS last 3 years against non-conference opponents. Carolina is 1-5 SU and ATS last 3 years in all games where the total is 35 or less. NY Jets are 7-2 ATS in game two the last 9 seasons. Carolina is 0-3 SU and ATS last 3 years in Game two action. The Rocketman line for this game is NY Jets to win by 6 points We'll recommend a small play on the NY Jets tonight!
Tony Karpinski
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Green Bay vs. Seattle
Play: Over 38½
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While Green Bay will put up plenty of points before Rodgers leaves the game look for Seattle also to score well against a Packer defense that could not stop the Browns last week. Some solid backup QB's will make the difference and this game will go over the total.
Matt Fargo
Oakland vs. Chicago
Play: Oakland +1
Chicago should be out to prove something tonight as it was pretty embarrassed in its preseason opener in San Diego last week. The first string on both sides saw very limited action and we will see that increase on Saturday. This is especially true with the offense which is installing a new scheme under offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Jay Cutler is the centerpiece and last week he gave everyone a little preview of what he could do in the Bears offense. He was only on the field for one series while throwing two passes, both resulting in completions for 47 yards. The problem is that there is no one after Cutler at quarterback as Caleb Hanie went down last week after playing very well. After Cutler is rookie Dan LeFevour who looked like a rookie and a bad one at that and newly signed Matt Gutierrez. Oakland played very well defensively against the Cowboys and facing a team that is putting in a new system is difficult, but early in the preseason it favors the defensive side of the ball. Raiders head coach Tom Cable stated that after Jason Campbell reaches his quota of snaps, Kyle Boller would come in and Brennan will have mop up duty. This gives the Raiders a big edge in the quarterback rotation as Campbell and Boller are both veteran quarterbacks. “It’s a great opportunity,” Boller said. “Each day, each week, I feel more and more comfortable, getting to know the guys, getting to know the offense. It’s gone really well.” Cable is hoping for more out of his first-team offense than the 29 yards it gained in 12 plays in the first quarter at Dallas. “I want to see us throw some completions and get some continuity in it,” he said. “See if we can put some drives together. Three or four more completions from last week I think I'd feel pretty good about it. I'd like to see some of the guys make some of those catches that we're seeing in practice. And of course continue to protect the quarterback for sure.” While the value seems to be on the home team here because the number is under the normal line of a field goal, I feel the value is the other way. The public is all over the Bears in this one yet the line has moved in the other direction and that is always a trigger to look at this line movement and go with the movement. 3* Oakland Raiders
Ben Burns
New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers
PICK: Carolina Panthers +1.5
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Both these teams lost their opening preseason game. The Ravens beat the Panthers by five points. The Jets lost by double-digits vs. the Giants. Most expected the Panthers to get beaten. After all, they were on the road against a tough Baltimore team. However, the majority of bettors backed the Jets to take care of the rival Giants.
With the Jets being an early fan favorite this season and a popular pick to win the AFC East or even contend for the Super Bowl, many will assume that they can't possibly get off to an 0-2 start in the preseason. In my opinion, that perception has provided us with solid value on the home team.
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In addition to playing on their homefield, the Panthers have a significant scheduling advantage in this one. Their game against the Ravens occurred on Thursday. On the other hand, the Jets and Giants played on Monday night. New York coach Rex Ryan played his starters more than normal (for a Week 1 game) in the Giants game. That will have most expecting him to do the same for Week 2. However, he initially indicated that, as a result of playing on the short week, his starters would see less than normal playing time (for a Week 2 game) vs. in this one.
Note: we already saw a strong Dallas team lose outright to the Raiders this season, when the Cowboys were playing on a short week.
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True, the Panthers will be without star receiver Steve Smith. They've got four players competing for the #2 spot though, all of whom should be motivated for a big performance. Matt Moore is a capable starter. He should see a lot more time than he did last week and will be anxious to win over the hometown fans. Jimmy Clausen should also see plenty of playing time. He's viewed as the "future" for the Panthers and I feel that he'll also prove capable.
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Overall, I expect a fairly motivated effort from Carolina. The Panthers were 0-4 in the preseason last year. That wouldn't have been considered a problem if they had played well when the regular season began. That wasn't the case though, as they were 0-3 in their September regular season games. Looking to avoid a similar fate and having already dropped their opener, the Panthers should treat this year's remaining games somewhat more seriously, particularly today's "home opener." Note that the Panthers may also be looking for some payback from a loss in last year's regular season.
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In my opinion, the wrong team is favored here. Consider CAROLINA
Larry Ness
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Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
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The Cards went into Cincinnati from August 9-11 and won all three games, leaving the Queen City in first-place in the NL Central. However, they returned home to begin an eight-game hometstand and after winning the first game, have dropped FIVE in a row. Meanwhile, the Reds have won SEVEN straight and all of a sudden, the Cards trail the Reds by 4 1/2 games. The problem for St Louis is the same one facing the old Milwaukee Braves who coined the phase, "Spahn and Sain, then pray for rain." The Cards circa 2010 opine, "Carpenter or Wainwright or we're screwed." St Louis is 19-7 in Carpenter's starts and 17-9 with Wainwright on the mound but just 29-38 with anyone else getting the start. Saturday's matchup features Carpenter (13-4, 2.95 ERA), who won the 2007 Cy Young award in the NL vs Lincecum (11-7, 3.62 ERA), who has won it each of the last two seasons. While Carpenter could add a second Cy Young this season, Lincecum is "out of the running." He's allowed four ERs or more in FIVE of his last 10 outings, including an 0-3 stretch heading into this game in which he's allowed 22 hits and 14 ERs over just 14 innings (9.00 ERA). In comparison, Carpenter is 4-1 (2.10 ERA) in his seven starts since the break, with the Cards winning SIX of the seven games. I must admit that Lincecum's 5-0 record with a 1.54 ERA in five career starts against the Cardinals is worrisome, as is the 16 consecutive scoreless innings he's tossed at Busch. However, I'm still sticking with Carpenter, as I don't believe Lincecum is the "same pitcher" this year (surely not for the last two months).