Dwayne Bryant
STL (-147) vs SFG
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Keeping this SMALL because Lincecum is quite capable of spinning a gem at any time, but he's clearly "off" right now. His last two starts were both at home; one against the Padres and the other against the Cubs. He pitched a combined 7.2 innings and allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits and 4 walks. That's a 12.91 ERA and 2.61 WHIP!
Carpenter just continues to roll along, sporting a 2.85 ERA & 1.08 WHIP in 15 starts at Busch Stadium this season. The Cards have won 12 of his 15 home starts. He's even better under the lights, posting a 2.21 ERA & 1.05 WHIP in 17 nighttime starts this season. The Cards won 15 of those 17 games.
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The Giants are batting .258 and scoring 4.2 runs per game on the road against righties this season, while St. Louis is batting .276 and scoring 5.3 runs per game at home against righties. The Giants pen owns a 4.06 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and .270 BAA on the road this season, while the Cards pen sports a 3.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .239 BAA at home. Looking at how each pen has performed over their last five games, I see the Giants pen with a 7.42 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and .305 BAA, while the Cards pen owns a 2.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .242 BAA.
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It'd be really easy to grab Lincecum and the Giants at this nice dog price, especially considering that the Cardinals have dropped their last five games (all at home). But this line is a bit high for a reason. I'll take the Cards & Carpenter for a SMALL play today.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Seattle +2.31 over NY YANKEES
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For years if you wagered on the Yanks you paid a premium to do so and that’s why you rarely see them bet in this section, as they’re way overpriced daily and this year is no exception. The Yanks are difficult to bet against because they win so many games but this one is just too big an overlay to ignore. First, the Mariners are playing great ball and have now won three straight and eight of 11. They’ve also gone yard 10 times over its last six games. Jason Vargas has some very decent numbers this season and a lot of that has to be credited to the park he pitches in. He has a very sharp 3.15 ERA but his expected ERA is 4.70 and that’s a notable gap. Chances are his ERA will spike over the remainder of the season but he is a lefty and the Yanks are just four games above .500 vs southpaws at home. Vargas’s numbers are impressive but they’re also skewed and he could get clocked here. However, he could also throw another very good game and this isn’t about playing on him as much as it is about playing on the Mariners against Javier Vazquez. Vazquez appears to be running on fumes right now. He’s surrendered eight bombs over his last six starts and in three August starts the league has hit .306 off him. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher at 47% and that’s why so many balls are leaving the park. His ERA at home is close to 5.00 and his ERA in August thus far is 7.24. Vasquez’s ground-ball rate of 34% is one of the lowest in the majors for qualified starters. So, it’s no surprise that Vazquez is suffering from a bout of “gopheritis” and laying big juice with this guy is a huge risk. Play: Seattle +2.31 (Risking 2 units).
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Washington –½ +1.18 over PHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings)
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It’s no secret that the Nats are being extra cautious with its prized rookie and therefore it’s very unlikely that said prized rookie will go more than five innings. With that in mind, one has to like the Nats chances of leading after five a lot more than the Phillies. In his first game back off the DL, Strasburg was banged around pretty good by the Marlins but was much sharper in his subsequent start and there’s a good chance he’ll be even sharper here. Strasburg still has electric stuff with electric skills that include a very impressive 45%/32% GB/FB ratio, a 2.97 ERA, which is higher than his xERA of 2.58 and he’s a strikeout machine. The Phillies scored one run last night off the biggest stiff in the league, Jason Marquis and we’ve seen this team get ice cold at the dish a bunch of times already this year. They’ve never seen Strasburg and that has to give the kid an edge. Meanwhile, Kyle Kendrick is about 200 times more hittable than Strasburg. Kendrick is a guy that puts the ball in play and that’s evidenced by his low strikeout rate. Kendrick has an absolutely unsustainable 83% strand rate over his last six starts and cannot be counted on to perform well because he’s simply not very good. Furthermore, the Nats have crushed this guy with current Nats hitters batting .404 off him in a combined 54 AB’s. Play: Washington –½ +1.18 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).
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Cincinnati +1.15 over LOS ANGELES
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Is there anything at all to like about the Dodgers laying juice against the Reds? Not likely. The Dodgers are seeing BB’s and in fact, they’re hitting just .199 over its last six games. L.A.'s lineup is missing three starting regulars, Manny Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, and Russ Martin, who are on the DL. The Reds enter this one on a seven-game winning streak, and they’ve produced 23 runs in its last three games. Yeah, Chad Billingsley is tough by so what. He’s pitching for a team that isn’t scoring, he has a brutal bullpen behind him and it’s very tough to pitch when feeling like you have to be perfect to win. Billingsley has a very concerning 4.64 ERA at home. Johnny Cueto is coming off his seven-game suspension and while there’s definitely some risk with him, there’s also the potential to dominate. Overall, Cueto has very good numbers but when he pitches away from Great American Ballpark his numbers are elite. In fact, he’s 6-1 on the road with a 2.79 ERA and a BAA of .231. Again, he’s facing a Dodger team that is in a bad frame of mind, as they continue to lose ground and they’re pretty much done for the year. Red-hot plus a tag vs ice-cold gets the call. Play: Cincinnati +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Murray Hill Mike
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Cowboys at Chargers
Play: Under
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The Dallas Cowboys are averaging just 12.5 points and allowing 12 points per game in two preseason games. San Diego allowed just 10 points against Chicago last week and will face a Dallas D that is playing together for the third straight week. We have found a SUPER SYSTEM that supports a play on the UNDER. Play the Under with any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (SAN DIEGO) after allowing 50 or less rushing yards last game. This system has cashed 76% (25-8) of the time over the last 10 seasons. Take the Under in this matchup.
BOB WINGERTER
San Diego Chargers -2.5
San Diego Chargers were impressive in their first game of the pre-season and even though the starters didn't hang around long, this is once again a strong, deep, and athletic team. Phillip Rivers didn't miss hold out Wide Receiver Vincent Jackson at all as he was 4 for 6 with a touchdown in his limited action. Billy Volek showed he is one of the better back up QB's in football and Jonathan Crompton showed that he needs some work but he has plenty of potential. Head Coach Norv Turner knows a few things about Running backs and first round draft choice Ryan Mathews was all he was billed as rushing for 50 yards on nine carries as Curtis Brinkley gained 36 yards on just five carries as it is apparent the Chargers running game is in fine shape as well. Marcus Mason appears to have a leg up on Shawnbrey McNeil for the number three Runnin back spot. Billy Latsko, Randy McMichael, Richie Brockel, and Mathews all had two catches each. Steve Gregory had five tackles and Darry Beckwith and C.J. Spillman has four each while the Chargers sacked Chicago QB's six times with Antwan Applewhite getting two sacks to lead the way.
The Dallas Cowboys move into their third pre-season game and question marks still abound as the offense hasn't really been able to put points on the board. The offense was ineffective, especially the running game, against the Oakland Raiders, as the Cowboys managed just three field goals. Tony Romo Played sparingly going 4 for 7 for 52 yards while Jon Kitna nailed down the number two job going 8 of 11 for 96 yards. Matt Nichols looks to be on the way out as he was 8 of 14 for 72 yards while throwing two interceptions. The Dallas running game was non-existent against Oakland as QB Stephen McGee was the leading rusher with 15 yards while Tashard Choice carried five times for nine yards to lead all Running backs. Sam Hurd had four catches for 57 yards to lead all Cowboy receivers and Terrell Hudgins had one catch for 40 yards and Miles Austin had two catches for 33 yards. The Dallas defense has been strong both games as one of the touchdowns by the Raiders was scored by their defense. Barry Church had four tackles and Junior SIAi had four tackles and a sack to lead all Dallas defenders. If the Cowboys are going to compete against the better teams, the offense will need to catch up with the defense.
Craig Trapp
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New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: New York Mets
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Two bad teams can still provide good value in MLB at times. Today we really like the Mets as they pound on the Pirates. PIT is only 1-9 in L10 games and have really look like they have given up. The Mets get away from home which is a good thing as the press has been killing them. Niese goes for the Mets and tries to continue his great pitching. His last three starts he has not received a decision but has gone 21 innings only allowing three runs. He will be opposed by McDonald for PIT. He has been good since the trade but against the NYM in his career his ERA is plus 8.00. Look for the Mets to pound the ball again and pull away to very easy win. Great value betting against worst NL team today.
John Ryan
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Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Play: Seattle Mariners
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5* graded play on Seattle as they take on the Yankees set to start at 1:05 EST. We nailed our one and only play Friday, which was a 15* Titan on the +135 Seattle Mariners, who defeated the Yankees 6-0. This bring the recent two week run in MLB to an amazing 17-4 record for 81% winners. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Seattle will again pull off the improbable win. The Yankees are just not playing well and Seattle has suddenly won 4 of the last 6. They have improved greatly on offense and now getting some very key hits. The bullpen has also been solid posting a 3.12 ERA and a 1.154 WHIP over the past seven games. Yankees are batting just 243 with just 19 extra base hits and 50 strikeouts in the past seven games spanning 226 AB. Plus, the have struggled all season against LH starters batting 258 with only 95 extra base hits and 12 stolen bases in 41 games spanning 1401 AB against a LH starter. Vargas has won his last three starts and has posted an impressive 2.84 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP. In nine day starts he has posted a 2.67 ERA and a 1.134 WHIP. Take Seattle.
Info Plays
3* on Florida Marlins -130
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Reasons the Marlins win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games. This is a 65-16 ML System hitting 80.2% over the last 5 years. This system is a perfect 12-0 this season. Bet the Marlins at home.
Dan Bebe
WAS (-105) vs PHI
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Strasburg is undervalued right now, if you can believe that. He's coming off a decent second start, following a rough first start off the DL, but his arm should be looser in this one, and I expect a nice bounceback from the young phenom. He was quoted as saying he felt like he was locating his pitches better, and getting the feel back after not pitching at all for 2 weeks.
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Kyle Kendrick is coming off a good start, but he's been awful against the Nats in his career (1-2, 6.93 ERA), and after a very low-scoring game yesterday, there should be a few runs posted in this one.
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Yes, it's true, at this cheap price, the world is betting the Phillies despite Strasburg's name on the betting card. We'll grab that opportunity to fade the public since Strasburg's line is no longer wildly inflated.
Play the Nats.
Harry Bondi
Houston +1.5 over New Orleans
Super Bowl Champs return home but don't expect them to expend much effort tonight. Quarterback Drew Brees and the starters are expected to play only a quarter or so and head coach Sean Payton has not put a premium on winning preseason home games. Saints are just 2-8 ATS at home in the preseason under Payton and we look for that trend to continue tonight. Tonight the betting public is all over the Saints in their first home game since winning the Super Bowl. We think they will be a little more fired up for their home opener against Minnesota and Brett Favre on September 9th! Let's go against the public again and take Houston as a short dog.
Jack Jones
Houston Astros vs. Florida Marlins
Pick: Houston Astros
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I'll back the Astros Saturday as a nice underdog to the Florida Marlins. I'm certainly backing the better starter in Wandy Rodriquez of the Astros over Chris Volstad of the Marlins. These are two starters headed in opposite directions. Wandy Rodriquez has posted a 1.33 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in his last 3 starts, allowing exactly 1 earned run in all three outings. Volstad is 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
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Rodriquez has owned the Marlins, going 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA in five career starts vs. Florida. The Astros are 4-1 in those five games. Volstad sports a 4.82 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Houston is 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. The Marlins are 1-7 in Volstad's last 8 home starts. Florida is 1-10 in Volstad's last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record, including 0-6 in Volstad's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Astros Saturday.
Black Widow
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1* on St. Louis Cardinals -146
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After five straight losses by the Cardinals, look for Chris Carpenter to refuse to let his team lose Saturday. Carpenter is quietly having a great season, going 13-4 with a 2.95 ERA this year. With a little more run support, he would be among the league leaders in wins. Tim Lincecum just hasn't been himself this year. Lincecum is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last 3 starts. This guy cannot be trusted any more. Carpenter is 15-2 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season. The Cardinals are 16-4 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take St. Louis on the Money Line.
Tony Stoffo
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Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Atlanta Braves
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With Hanson matching up with Gorzelanny today makes for a solid release on the Braves in this spot. Tommy Hanson has been brilliant in his last 3 starts allowing just 2 earned runs, and 10 hits in 21 innings pitched resulting in a 0.86 Era , and 0.714 WHIP. With the Cubs on another losing streak again now having lost 5 straight I can see Hanson coming with another stellar effort here today. While the same can not be said for Tom Gorzelanny who continues to struggle having giving up 12 runs, 21 hits, and 8 walks in his last 3 starts producing a 5.59 ERA, and 1.500 WHIP. Plus add in the combination of the Chicago bullpen being average at best with a 4.94 ERA, and 1.538 WHIP and you can see how the Braves will have no problems scoring runs today. Braves continue their winning ways here today.
O.C. Dooley
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Steelers / Giants Under 33.5
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We have seen serious line movement on this contest as the Steelers have gone from a 2’ point choice all the way up to a 6-point favorite due to quarterback question marks regarding the Giants. But what is most telling to me is that we have seen very little movement on the total. The bottom line is that both of these teams have a lot to prove on the DEFENSIVE side of the football including Pittsburgh who a year ago gave up 20+ points in a contest 9 different times. The Giants stop-unit was burned for 40+ points 5 different times in 2009 which led to a change in coordinators. From the outset it appears that new coordinator Perry Falwell has done a solid job analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of his personnel and he has been given a big break in that many of his players are now healthy. To make a long story short the Giants have such depth that we could be looking at an “eight man” rotation on the defensive line. When watching tonight’s game on the NFL Network keep an eye out for defensive tackle Linvall Joseph who is a “320 pound space eater”. In Giants training camp defensive end Dave Tollefson has already turned heads. There is much excitement surrounding linebacker Lawrence Timmons in Pittsburgh as there are some predicting he will join teammates LaMarcus Woodley and James Harrison as Pro Bowlers. Of course the big news in Pittsburgh is on the other side of the football as the team must replace Ben Roethlisberger for apparently 4 different regular season contests. Judging from week-one Dennis Dixon seems to be a better option that limited veteran Byron Leftwich. There are also questions as to whether Mike Wallace can step in and replace the now banished Santonio Holmes at one of the receiver slots. Basically there are plenty of question marks regarding the Steelers on offense which is the same quandary now facing the Giants who will be WITHOUT injured quarterbacks Eli Manning and Jim Sorgi this evening. In the case of Sorgi (shoulder) we are looking at 2-to-3 weeks of inactivity, while the team is being cautious with Manning who was cut in the face a week ago. Taking most of the snaps tonight will be Rhett Bomar who will be followed by Dominic Randolph so one has to wonder why this posted total has not taken a nosedive. My database research indicates that ever since Mike Tomlin has been head coach, Pittsburgh in preseason play is 6-0 UNDER the total on SATURDAY’S