Ben Burns
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians -157
The Indians are a team I like to bounce back Saturday. They limited the Astros to just three hits in Friday's opener, but lost in large part because of some very poor play in the field. Not only did the Indians commit two errors, but they also had two runners thrown out in the same inning. I'll look for better play today.
The Tribe really dominated the Astros last year, winning six of seven games and outscoring them 41-15. Yesterday was the first time the clubs had met in 2014.
This Indians team typically does a good job at defending their home field. Only the A's and Angels have more victories at home among all American League teams.
Houston scored four of its runs in the ninth Friday, so it was a tie game heading into the final inning. Before that outburst, they had scored just 1 run in their last 17 innings. They have just seven hits total the last two games.
In his last five starts, Cleveland starter Danny Salazar has allowed three earned runs or less four times.
Art Aronson
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -134
I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday’s 8-3 setback. Milwaukee sends Wily Peralta (15-7, 3.27 ERA) to the hill; Peralta has been “lights out” of late, he’s 6-1 with a tiny 1.59 ERA over the last six weeks. Most recently Peralta would allow five hits over six scoreless innings in his team’s 7-2 win at Dodger Stadium on Sunday; note that Peralta has been especially dominant of late, he’s won four consecutive starts at home behind a minuscule 1.03 ERA (and note that he’s 2-0 with a very respectable 2.25 ERA in three lifetime starts vs. the Bucs). Milwaukee faces Edinson Volquez (10-7, 3.58 ERA) who has also been great of late, he’s 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts in August. The Brewers though have won 10 of the last 14 in this series and I think that trend gets extended here; Peralta gets the slight nod on the bump in my opinion, consider a second look at the home side in this spot.
Jimmy Adams
Washington Redskins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Washington Redskins +3
Things are looking up in Washington with Mike Shanahan out and Jay Gruden taking over as head coach. Reports are already indicating that team chemistry is much better so far this year. Robert Griffin III seems to have a much better relationship with Gruden and that will go a long way in helping the Redskins win games.
RGIII looks healthy coming into the season. He has made positive plays, he just needs to work on not making that one big mistake. He can’t be forcing throws and throwing interceptions when the play breaks down. As long as he takes care of the ball (and himself), the ‘Skins will be just fine. I am also very high on backup QB Kirk Cousins. This guy is better than a handful of starters in the NFL, and Washington is fielding many trade inquiries as a result. Cousins is a big reason for this play, as I am very confident when he has the ball and I know that he will put his team in a good position to win the game outright. The Redskins are on a short week because they played Monday night, but short weeks don’t matter near as much in the preseason as they do when the games actually count.
The Ravens will be without their top 3 cornerbacks tonight. Jimmy Smith, Asa Jackson, and Lardarius Webb will all be sidelined. This obviously leaves Baltimore’s secondary very vulnerable to the big play form both Griffin and Cousins. The Ravens got off to a very slow start last week, and Joe Flacco didn’t look particularly sharp either. Count on the Redskins to at least cover in this one and possibly win the game outright.
Marc Lawrence
NY Mets vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: NY Mets
Edges - Mets: DeGrom 41 strikeouts and 7 walks last six starts. Dodgers; Haren 6-11 last seventeen team starts during August, including 0-4 last four home. With De Grom 5-2 with a 1.97 ERA his last seven team starts, and Haren 2-6 with a 7.03 ERA in his last eight-team starts, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.
Mike Lundin
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8
The D-backs will host the Padres for Game 2 of a three game set at Chase Field tonight. The home team won last night's opener by a score of 4-1, and I don't think we'll see a lot of action over the plate in this game either.
Andrew Cashner (2-6, 2.36 ERA) will take the mound for the Padres, making his first start for over two months. He's posting a 3.56 ERA over six starts versus the D-backs lifetime, and is 2-4 with a 2.17 ERA over 10 starts under the lights this season.
Vidal Nuno (0-3, 3.72 ERA) will toe the rubber for the D-backs, and he's still win-less since joining from the Yankees. The southpaw has pitched OK lately though, only allowing four runs on 11 hits fanning seven over 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts.
It's well known that the Padres have the worst offense in baseball, and the D-backs have only put a total of nine runs over the plate in their last four games. The last four meetings between the two teams have gone under the total.
Jack Jones
Kansas City Royals -113
The Kansas City Royals (71-56) have gone 23-6 in their last 29 games overall to move into first place in the AL Central Division by 2.5 games over the Detroit Tigers. They continue their series against the lowly Texas Rangers (49-78), who have the worst record in the American League by a wide margin.
Jeremy Guthrie is having a solid season for the most part this year, going 9-10 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 25 starts. The right-hander has gone 5-4 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 13 road starts as well. Guthrie is also 4-4 with a 3.88 ERA in 12 career starts against Texas.
Nick Tepesch has been decent in limited action for the Rangers. He has gone 4-7 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in 15 starts and one relief appearance this season. I look for him to struggle against a Kansas City team that has been hitting the cover off the ball of late. The Royals have scored six or more runs in five of their last seven games overall.
Kansas City is 9-2 in its last 11 road games. The Royals are 53-23 in their last 76 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Kansas City is 5-0 in Guthrie's last five starts as a road favorite. The Rangers are 15-36 in their last 51 home games. Texas is 14-43 in its last 57 games overall.
Chase Diamond
Philadelphia Phillies +111
This game features the 69-58 Cardinals and the 57-71 Phillies. I like the Phillies yesterday and was afraid to jump at the big plus money but I'll take the nice plus money today we have a slight edge in pitching today as David Buchanan has been a solid rookie for the Phillies who have won 2 straight and are hitting the ball well. Shelby Miller has been up and down all year and I'm not expecting much from him tonight. The public is all over the Cardinals big time here as 86% of the public are backing them yet this line has moved 7 cents the wrong way telling us who the Sharps are backing there money wagon too.
Allen Eastman
Kansas City -3.5
This is Mike Zimmer’s first road game as head coach of the Vikings. Minnesota has had two good games at home to open the preseason. But now they are hitting the road. And things can get chaotic for a rookie coach and a young team. The Chiefs are at home and have an easy week with no travel. And Andy Reid is an old pro anyway. The Chiefs starters were outscored 14-6 by Carolina last week. But they outplayed them. Kansas City just couldn’t finish drives with TDs. Reid’s teams have gone 10-5 in his career in Week 3 in the preseason and they will want to get a win here after losing by 12 last week. I think this Chiefs defense will be able to shoot down Matt Cassel and frustrate Teddy Bridgewater. I expect a lot of Bridgewater. And like his rookie coach I think that his first game on the road can overwhelm him. I like the Chiefs to rebound and I like the Vikings to letdown after their come-from-behind win last week at home against Arizona. Take the home team here and collect with the Chiefs.
Strike Point Sports
Everton / Arsenal Over 2.5
Two of the English top flight’s top teams square off in the northwest of the country when Arsenal visit Everton. Both teams are attack-minded and know a lone goal is likely not to be enough to win this match. I see both sides getting on the score sheet and contributing at least a goal a piece in this encounter. Arsenal is coming off an early week trip to Istanbul from the Champions League qualifier, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them a little more off their top game because of that. Neither defense screams clean sheet, so look for a 2-1 or 2-2 finish between these two teams on Saturday.
Brad Diamond
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Atlanta Braves -118
Braves continued majestic run vs. the Reds last night winning their fifth straight in the series, while carrying a 21-6 run differential. Here Santana hits the hill with an 8-1 mark of late carrying a 3.12 ERA into Saturday action. With the Reds suffering vs. >.500 units (3-13), play on the Braves until their MOJO turns off.
Chip Chirimbes
Washington Redskins vs. Houston Texans
Play: Washington Redskins +3
The Baltimore Ravens are playing like a team on a mission as they are now 17-9 straight-up in pre-season under John Harbaugh after their pounding of the Cowboys in Dallas. They opened their season with a 23-2 win over San Francisco and have established their macho approach. Still, The Redskins under new coach Jay Gruden will be working harder.
Tony Stoffo
Astros vs. Indians
Play: Under 7.5
With the Indians bats silent right now with the under going 9-1 in their last 10 games sure makes for a solid release on the under in this spot today, especially if you add in that Mark Ripperger will be the home plate umpire here. In his last 6 times that Ripperger has called balls and strikes the under is a perfect 6-0 Under this posted total the play here.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (+7) over Denver
The Bronco's have looked awesome in the preseason beating Seattle and crushing San Francisco last week 34-0. Peyton Manning has been outstanding completing 22 of 27 passes. But we are going to be contrarians here and back Houston because of Denver Head Coach John Fox's week three history and a believe that Fox has already seen enough this preseason to show him that his squad is ready to repeat as AFC Champions. Fox is one of the few coaches that does not put a premium on week three of the preseason and his 0-3 ATS record as headman of the Bronco's supports that premiss. We had Houston in it's 32-7 shellacking of Atlanta last week and believe that Texans Head coach Bill O'Brien will play his starters three quarters and treat this as a regular season game, at least for three quarters, as he tries to put Houston's horrific 2013 season in the rear view mirror.
River City Sharps
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Atlanta Braves -123
Wow have things gone south on these Cincinnati Reds! They almost were no-hit last night vs. the Braves Mike Minor before eventually losing in extra innings to drop the second straight game in this series with Atlanta. Tonight, the Reds will try and stop the bleeding as they give the rock to Mike Leake who will be challenged by the Braves Ervin Santana. To be very honest with you, this game (on paper) really qualifies as Diamond play for us, but we have backed it down to a 3 Unit selection (regression to the mean...Reds need to win at some point, right?) All of that said, we feel really comfortable laying a littl bit of chalk with the road favorite here tonight. Kep in mind that Leake has given up the most hits in the National League (178) this season and Santana enters this game with an 8-1 mark over his last 10 starts. Shall we go on? OK...how about Santana beat these Reds earlier this season and the Braves have received a major league leading 90 quality starts by their staff this year! The Braves are playing really solid baseball right now, winning seven of their last eight games and are 19-7 in their last 26 games vs. the NL Central. The Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. teams with a winning record and 2-8 in Leake's last 10 starts as an underdog of between +110 and +150. These teams are just moving in two completely different directions and we expect more of the same tonight.
Line Catchers
Seattle Mariners – 109
The Mariners take on the Red Sox in game 2 of their mini 3 game set at Fenway Park this afternoon and left it late on Friday to wipe out a 3-0 deficit in the 9th inning by scorching Koji Uehara for 5 ER on 5 hits and a walk in just 2/3 IP.
Saturday sees Seattle give the baseball to righty Chris Young who has been solid all season, he sports a 12-6 record with a 3.11 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 24 starts this campaign. Young has been especially stingy in 11 ‘Day’ starts, this year, going 5-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Among qualifying pitchers (Min 60 IP), he has held opponents to a .195 BAA which ranks 3rd in all of baseball in those matinee outings.
Brandon Workman gets the nod the the Red Sox and has been fairly inconsistent so far this season having struggled with his command throughout 2014. He has the tendency to work up 3 ball counts on a regular basis. Workman is 1-6 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He has issued an average of 2.4 walks per game in his 11 games as a starter and the Red Sox are just 2-9 when Workman toes the rubber. In 6 ‘Home’ starts in 2014, the Boston hurler has pitched to a 4.46 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
With the Mariners sitting just half a game above the Tigers in the 2nd AL WC spot, I believe the vale is on the road team in this match up. During their six-game skid, the Red Sox are just 3-for-47 with RISP and have left 50 men on base in those 6 games. Being opposed by the stingy Chris Young, I foresee Boston’s opportunity’s for run scoring to be few and far between.