Jeff Alexander
Kansas City Royals -108
The Royals are worth a shot at this price. They are 23-6 in their last 29, 9-2 in their last 11 on the road, 38-14 in their last 52 as a road favorite and 5-0 in Guthrie's last 5 as a road fave. The Rangers are 14-43 in their last 57 overall, 15-36 in their last 51 at home and 1-4 in Tepesch's last 5 starts versus teams with a winning record.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -148
Cleveland is showing value at this price at home against a Houston club that is84-189 in its last 273 road games and 14-40 in its last 54 road games versus teams with winning home marks. McHugh has pitched well for Houston, but the Astros haven't been able to convert his many of his starts into wins because of poor relief pitching and a lack of run support. The Astros are 3-7 in McHugh's last 10 starts and 1-5 in his last six starts as an underdog. The Indians are 46-16 in their last 62 home games versus a team with a losing record and 5-0 in Salazars last 5 home starts versus a team with a losing record. The Astros have dropped six of seven versus Cleveland.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +197 over N.Y. YANKEEES
Rounding out the back-end of Chicago’s rotation is 29-year-old Scott Carroll, who has pitched nearly 100 innings for the South Side so far. With a decent body of work to review, are there any sneaky skills worth speculating on here? Carroll needs pinpoint control to offset his pitiful strikeout rate but he's below-average at locating his pitches. He's managed to scrape by, in large part by inducing a high number of groundballs, but his low K rate makes him more susceptible to luck-factors, and he's been hurt by a low strand percentage. With a 31%/23% dominant start/disaster start split, every Carroll outing is sure to be a roller-coaster. That said, the Yankees cannot be in this price range. They can make average pitchers look great and bad ones look good. Carroll’s 55% groundball rate really sticks out and could be a factor. To be fair, Carroll has been a bit sharper lately, producing a few gems over the past month and a half. The possibility of Carroll getting whacked is always present when he starts but there is too much value here to pass up on. It’s also worth noting that the White Sox possess a dangerous offense, which adds to their appeal.
25 starts and 154 innings for 39-year old Hiroki Kuroda may be starting to take a toll. Throw in the 421 innings he’s thrown over the previous two seasons and you begin to get the picture of a pitcher that is running low on gas. Kuroda has surrendered three runs or more in four of his last five starts. In his last start he only struck out one batter in 6.2 innings. Over his last five starts, Kuroda has a 4.35 ERA, which is right in line with his 4.44 ERA over that same span. Perhaps it's too early to suggest a significant playing time adjustment, but Kuroda does appear to need a breather. Two starts ago start (August 10) he was pulled after 4.2 innings, four walks and 97 pitches for his second disaster start in his previous four starts. Indeed the Yanks may pull this one out but in no way do they deserve this billing, as they have proven over the past six weeks that they can lose at any time to any pitcher. Big overlay.
Miami -103 over COLORADO
The Marlins have won four of five and spanked the Rockies last night, 13-5 in the opener. Miami has also scored 31 times in the past four games, they’re just four games out in the Wildcard race and they’ll take that momentum into this one against Jordan Lyles. Lyles has put up some decent numbers but he rarely lasts more than 5 innings and he certainly lacks plus offerings. Over his last four starts, Lyles posted a 5.21 ERA while allowing at least one jack in every game. Jordan Lyles is an average pitcher throwing for a depleted team.
Tom Koehler is a pitcher we like. His numbers are average (3.82 ERA – 1.26 WHIP) but he’s been getting progressively better almost every month since he’s been in the bigs. Koehler’s fastball velocity has increased every month this season. In his last outing, he struck out seven batters in six frames. He has a BAA of just .239 this season but an unlucky 70% strand rate has hurt his bottom line. Over his past 11 starts, Koehler has been taken yard just three times. Koehler’s strikeout rate, control and groundball percentage are all trending the right way. The Marlins have won four of Koehler’s last six starts, they’re swinging some hot bats and they’re a cheap price to extend that run here.
Houston +137 over CLEVELAND
Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to produce one of the most incredible rags to riches story in a long time. Formerly Colorado's waiver fodder and N.Y Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh -- owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level -- in December, and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's pitched like an ace since then. In 114 innings, McHugh has a BB/K split of 39/124. In nine road starts, McHugh has allowed 42 hits in 54 innings for a BAA of .215. McHugh has been just as good against righties (.194 oppBA) as he has against lefties (.213 oppBA) and the scary part is that’s he’s getting better. Over his last five starts, McHugh has a 2.27 ERA (2.98 xERA), he’s struck out 31 batters and has walked just six in 32 frames. In his last start, McHugh’s groundball rate was 59%. McHugh is undoubtedly one of the most undervalued starters in the game. Furthermore, the Astros are playing great ball with 12 wins over their past 20 games and they’re currently 5-3 on this 10-game trip. This team is having fun and they’re dangerous.
Danny Salazar has blazing, malevolent stuff. He averages (that's averages) 96 mph on a fastball with sinister movement and he mixes in a nasty splitter. This dude can throw but we’re not so sure he can pitch. In 13 starts, he has just four of the pure quality variety. Salazar also pitches up in the zone so he’s prone to the long ball and has already been tagged for 10 jacks in 67 innings. Another problem is that he averages more pitches per AB than any pitcher in the game, meaning his pitch count is usually high and as a result, he rarely lasts deep into games. Salazar has lasted five innings or less in four of his past six starts and in eight of his 12 starts this season. That leaves the rest to the Indians bullpen. With an awful groundball/fly-ball split of 27%/50% and the inability to last deep into games, Salazar is too big risk at this price.
LT Profits
Pittsburgh s Milwaukee
Pick: Over 8
Look for a higher scoring game than expected between two pitchers that may be pitching over their heads as of late when Edinson Volquez and the Pittsburgh Pirates visit Wily Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers. Volquez seemingly has hot streaks like he has had over his last three starts, over which he has a tiny 1.40 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, all the time only to suddenly implode and return to his mediocre self. To wit, while he has a 3.58 ERA overall he has just a 4.35 FIP and 4.25 xFIP. Similarly, Peralta has a 1.42 ERA in his last three starts, although in this case it is accompanied by just a 1.32 WHIP. Peralta has just a 4.18 FIP, and although he has a decent 3.64 xFIP, that is still running a bit behind his 3.32 ERA. The ‘over’ is 19-7 in the Pirates’ last 26 games vs. right-handed starters.
Bob Balfe
Tampa Bay Bucs +3
You know what is a great sign for a team that is good getting ready for a season? That would be fighting in practice with each other. You know what a bad sign is for a bad team? That's right it is fighting in practice. It seems like these Bills team has an identity problem right now that their coach better address ASAP. There are too many turnover machines at QB for Buffalo. Both teams have some really nice speedy running backs so this game will be fun to watch. I like the Bucs QB's a little better. Take Tampa
Atlanta Falcons -3
This is another one of those games where coming into a dome and a surface you don't play much on is tricky. Let's not forget how good Atlanta was prior to all of last years injuries. This team will be right back in the mix. I am not a big fan of the second half quarterback situation for the Titans, but if Locker stays healthy this year they could have a great season. Take Atlanta.
Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Without looking too deep into these games being only the starters play a half it is not a good sign looking at this Miami Offensive Line. There is no chemistry together and for that alone I will go against them in a mock regular season game or what is close to one. There will be tons of penalties this year and I feel for the teams with bad offensive lines. Take Dallas
Washington Redskins +2.5
Baltimore is going to have to keep their running backs healthy knowing Rice will be out two games to start the year. The last thing they want to do is get another one of these guys hurt and have no shot at winning those games without Rice. The backup QB's for Baltimore are weak so again in this game I like the backups of Washington a little more in garbage time. Take the Washington
Colts / Saints Under 47.5
I am evaluating every week three preseason game and really could not get a great ready on this one. Obviously we never will play the whole board in the regular season. This is a pretty high total for it being preseason. None of the backup QB's really impress me when it gets into the second half. This game should stay under unless these teams come out firing early on, but I don't know why they would want to give away all their good plays in a pointless game. Take the Under.
St. Louis Rams +2.5
The Browns literally have new skill players or rookies all across the board from first string to third string. It is going to take a while for this to gel as a unit. In this league you can't just throw a bunch of guys into the fire who never played together and win. This St. Louis team has a very good defense and if Bradford can stay healthy for once they could make a push in that tough division where every team is capable of making a deep playoff run just on defense alone. Take the Rams.
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
There are a few teams that it is foolish to wager against at home. In the NFL it would be the Seahawks which I did just that last night and look where it got us and here in Arrowhead. With Peterson out for Minnesota this team does not have much of a running game. If you can't be balanced with all the noise here its going to be tough to win. Take the Chiefs
Houston Texans +7
We all know Peyton Manning is one of the best if not the best QB that ever played the game. Outside of Manning these QB's are not going to do much damage and I can't imagine the Broncos playing him too long against a dangerous Texans Defensive Line. Houston is itching to get back to the regular season after that horrible finish last year. This team is going to play with a little more urgency heading into this season. Denver just loss a receiver in practice this week for the year so the injury bug has hit home which is never good going into a meaningless game. All the big favorites cashed yesterday. Hopefully this is the big underdog that cashes today. Take Houston.
Andre Gomes
Baltimore Orioles -115
BAL's SP Bud Norris has been great lately w/ a nice run of 4 straight quality outings. Note that he faced some tough matchups in those starts like LAA, TOR & CWS - all dangerous lineups and still he looked pretty good.
His K% numbers have been excellent in this second half of season w/ 22.4% K% mark vs. 16.5% in this second half of season and this is good news for him because CHC lineup has been a "K machine" for quite some time - I have them ranked dead last (#30) in the league in L30 days w/ an abysmal 26.0% K% mark!
BAL will face K. Hendricks who has been pretty good as well. However his advanced numbers are screaming for some regression as his 1.66 ERA does not match his 3.54 FIP & 3.85 xFIP numbers! BAL offense was shut down by J. Arrieta last night and they are looking to bounce back today - they are ranked #6 in L14 days, so I expect them to do some damage in here.
Vegas Butcher
Kansas City Royals -115
As I've mentioned in my analysis/breakdowns, Royals rank very highly against the 'cutter' which is Tepesch's best pitch. The fact that he's coming off a 4BB outing tells me that control issues could resurface again today. By comparison, Guthrie has 11K in his last 11.2 innings and will face the 30th ranked Rangers lineup. Royals are 16-4 in August, 38-28 (+11.7U) on the road, and 51-38 against right-handers this year. Rangers are 23-39 at home, 31-61 in night games, and 7-19 in the last 26 when facing a team with a winning record. I like KC to win this game as they have advantages in all key statistical categories in this one.
Tom Barton
Milwaukee vs Pittsburgh
Pick: Under 8.5
While it's always a dangerous option to take the Brewers under at home I'm doing both because of who's on the hill. Wily Peralta goes for the Brew crew and he has blossomed into an ace this year going for his 16th win and leading the NL. Peralta is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA over the last six weeks and is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three matchups against Pittsburgh. On the other side is Edison Volquez. Volquez is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts this month and has always pitched well against Milwaukee going 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA last year. I expect a well pitched game in this one from both starters.
Michael Alexander
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -132
Peralta tossed six innings of five-hit shutout ball to defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last turn. He has won six of his last seven starts and given up just eight earned runs during the stretch. Peralta is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh with one of the victories occurring earlier this season.
Bruce Marshall
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics
The Angels have taken advantage of a favorable schedule in recent weeks, but the A's suggested they are not about to roll over like the Red Sox and Rangers after last night's stirring 5-3 win to pull back within a game of the Halos in the AL West. Edge on the mound tonight to Oakland's Jon Lester, 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA since joining the A's form the Red Sox at the trade deadline. Angels starter C.J. Wilson has been erratic, and the A's look to be righting their ship with wins in two of three after dropping seven of eight.
Scott Delaney
It's been strictly business for the Denver Broncos.
I know it's the preseason, but dammit, that team with that Peyton fella sure does look like a team on a mission - even in the preseason.
And for as chippy and snarky as things got in Englewood, Colorado this week during intrasquad practicing, I'd say things will get heated in Denver tonight. And the Broncos aren't to be messed with in their house.
Not with that Peyton fella under center.
Last week the Broncos looked good on the road in a 34-0 win at San Francisco. That was after beating the Seattle Seahawks in a Super Bowl rematch. Now 2-0, the Broncos' official dress rehearsal in front of their home crowd figures to be monumental against one of the presumed most feared defensive units this season.
I don't trust Houston just yet, and I don't think its offense stands a chance in that altitude against the Broncos' aggressive D.
Let's lay the points. Let's buy the half point off 7. Let's watch that Peyton fella do his thing.
1♦ DENVER
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Braves over the Reds.
Cincinnati was nearly no-hit last night by Mike Minor, and while they did manage to score in the bottom of the 8th to tie the game at 1-1, they did eventually wind up falling in 12 innings to the Braves.
The Reds losing streak is now at 7 in a row, and 10 of their last 11 overall. Meanwhile, the Braves have picked up the pace with wins in 7 of their last 8, as they have been getting plenty of pitching and plenty of offense during this upswing.
Back Atlanta again tonight, as Ervin Santana opposes Mike Leake.
Santana is on a 6-0 run with a 2.98 ERA his last 7 starts, while Leake is on an 0-2 slide his last 3 starts with an ERA over 5.
One team is surging, the other is doing a poor job treading water.
Have to side with the Braves to come though once again on Saturday night in the Queen City.
Take Atlanta.
4♦ ATLANTA
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the St. Louis Rams at the Cleveland Browns.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Rams - Coach Jeff Fisher is a seasoned veteran and will easily outclass his counterpart tonight. This is a big edge for a team like the Rams, on the road and in Week 3 of the preseason. Want to see structure? Watch the differences with discipline in this game.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Browns - Quarterback distractions abound. I swear, this coach is driving this team into the ground, and the Browns are headed for trouble. You don't name a starter, then later state you have the option to go with a two-man show.
In conclusion, why ST. LOUIS is my SMART PLAY in this game - As long as the quarterback situation in Cleveland is in pencil - not in ink - there is trouble up there. And I don't care this one is in Cleveland, the Rams are going to be the more focused and disciplined team in this game. They don't have near the media distraction to deal with, even with Michael Sam on the roster.
The best news in Cleveland today is Kevin Love arriving to play alongside LeBron James. He'll be a Cavalier before sundown, and the Browns will come out of this game with the media asking everyone - who should the starter be? Too much trouble for the Browns right now.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
Chris Jordan
Drew Brees has a message for everyone who is on Andrew Luck's fruits. Not to mention Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.
It's called Respect Your Elders.
Tonight in Indianapolis, we'll be reminded of who holds the all-time single-season mark for passing yards, behind his excellence and offensive prowess. I fully expect Brees to direct the New Orleans Saints prolific offense to an outright win tonight.
The Colts are 0-2 in the preseason, while the Saints are 2-0.
And I don't know if Indianapolis is as together as coach Chuck Pagano had hoped. Luck will get his snaps, but there's no telling whether or not Reggie Wayne will get enough time to make a difference. Questions abound in the backfield and overall, I really think are concerns behind the scenes.
The only concern for New Orleans coach Sean Payton is how deep into the third quarter will he let Brees play. By that time, the game will be well in hand.
Take the road pup.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Nelly
Royals / Rangers Under 9
The Ballpark in Arlington is notoriously tough on pitchers and with awful staff for the Rangers has not helped the cause this season. The ‘under’ has had a solid edge in Texas home games however even with nearly 9.5 runs scored in Rangers home games on average this season. Nick Tepesch has certainly had some ups and downs this season but his last four starts since returning to the rotation have been very solid, allowing just seven runs and 20 hits in nearly 26 innings. He does not produce a great deal of strikeouts but he has learned how to pitch in this ballpark, lowering his home ERA to 3.40 with a 1.07 WHIP and getting a great deal of ground balls. As bad as the Texas bullpen has been this season the unit owns a 1.45 ERA in the last 10 games and after six or more innings from five of the last six Texas starters the unit is in good shape. Veteran Jeremy Guthrie continues to get the job done as the Royals are 4-1 in his last five starts and he has excelled in his road starts. Backed up by an electric bullpen Guthrie knows he does not have to be perfect and he routinely keeps the Royals in games. Guthrie has allowed four or fewer runs in five of his last six starts and his strikeouts numbers are actually pretty solid while having to face difficult opposition in his last few starts. Kansas City has been one of the hottest teams in baseball this month, taking control of the AL Central but the Royals are now in a an eighth straight road game and last night Kansas City was fortunate to score six runs on only nine hits as they got two big home runs. The Royals have been an ‘under’ team on the road this season and the ‘under’ is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings between these teams.