Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 24

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Washington at Kansas City
The Nationals look to follow up last night's series-opening 11-10 win and build on their 7-0 record in Jordan Zimmermann's last 7 starts in Game 2 of a series. Washington is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120)

Game 951-952: Arizona at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Delgado) 15.597; Philadelphia (Martin) 14.652
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.382; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.676
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-200); Under

Game 955-956: Colorado at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Manship) 14.403; Miami (Fernandez) 15.967
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Miami (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-200); Under

Game 957-958: Atlanta at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 16.243; St. Louis (Miller) 15.189
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); Over

Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 13.188; San Diego (Stults) 14.616
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Under

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.388; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.702
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+115); Over

Game 963-964: Oakland at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 14.171; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.512
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145); Under

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 15.613; Cleveland (McAllister) 14.726
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+160); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.202; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.782
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Wang) 13.659; Houston (Peacock) 14.940
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 971-972: Texas at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 17.445; White Sox (Santiago) 15.807
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-200); Under

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 15.219; Seattle (Ramirez) 14.394
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+115); Over

Game 975-976: Detroit at NY Mets (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.227; NY Mets (Harvey) 14.879
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under

Game 977-978: Boston at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.784; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.251
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 979-980: Washington at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 16.669; Kansas City (Davis) 15.231
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Under

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. IndianapolisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cleveland Browns come into the third week of preseason unbeaten and having already settled a 'mini-controversy' at quarterback. I like for them to run their record to a perfect 3-0 after this week's visit to Indianapolis where they'll play a Colts team that is 1-1 thus far.
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Here are my keys to the game:
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1. Brandon Weeden - I never bought that veteran Jason Campbell was going to take Weeden's job away, but the second year QB certainly did his part to ensure Campbell had no chance of doing so. In two games, Weeden is 18 of 25 for 229 yards and 3 TDs. Under his direction, the Browns have twice raced out to 17-0 leads in their games thus far. With starters likely in for longer this time around, I'll expect another strong showing from the official Browns starter. Cleveland has yet to turn the ball over in the preseason.
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2. Schedule - After allowing 44 points to Buffalo in the opener, the Colts were able to bounce back last week against the Giants, coming out on top 20-12. But that game was played on Sunday, meaning its a short week for the team. Meanwhile, Cleveland has not played since last Thursday.
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3. X-Factor - Underdogs off back to back wins in the preseason have covered at a phenomenal 75% rate, going all the way back to 1993 at 30-10 against the spread.

Marc Lawrence

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers and Red Sox resume their three-game series in Los Angeles Saturday afternoon where Hyun-Jin Ryu opposes Jon Lester in a battle of southpaws at Dodger Stadium. Ryu has enjoyed hurling at home in L.A. since coming over from Korea as evidenced by his 9-2 team starts record with a 1.78 ERA. That's in direct contrast to Ryu's 4.05 ERA on the road this season. With Ryu in great KW form with 30 strikeouts and 5 walks his last five starts, and the Red Sox just 4-10 in Lester's last fourteen road starts, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Jimmy Boyd

Milwaukee Brewers +174

There is a lot of value on Milwaukee today when they come into this matchup against the Reds as such a large underdog. This is a fairly even matchup from most of the key angles making this money line a little too sweet to ignore. The Brewers are batting .250 against division opponents, while the Reds have a .236 batting average against the division. Cincinnati has a .251 batting average at home this year, while Milwaukee is not far behind at .249 on the road. Both teams average close to four runs per game.

A couple bad games have really thrown-off Wily Peralta's stats. He has had strong performances in two of this last three starts. Peralta went 8 innings and gave up just four hits and two earned runs on the road against Seattle, and he went 6.3 innings on the road against the Giants, giving up just one earned run. Bronson Arroyo is coming off one of his less impressive games. Even though the Reds beat Arizona, Arroyo gave up 7 hits in 6 innings, including a home run, and allowed 3 earned runs in total. Those numbers are hardly terrible, but it reflects how close the matchup is at starting pitcher. The value is on Milwaukee in this game.

Sean Higgs

St Louis Rams vs. Denver Broncos
Play: St Louis Rams +7

Going to grab the points here with the road team. Rams need to show some life. STL winless on the preseason. They will be looking for a big win here. I nearly went ML on this game. We know what Denver is. They won't be risking injuries so I can't see them really running things up. I think they will be going through the motions and the Rams will be looking to get a win. Easy pickings here on the RAMS.

Art Aronson

Rangers vs. White Sox
Play: Under 7½

Yu Darvish (12-5, 2.68 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Darvish is coming off an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Mariners on Sunday, giving up three runs off seven hits with four walks while striking out seven over 7 1/3's innings in his team's eventual 4-3 setback. Darvish has been as solid as you could possibly expect this season and has allowed just eight earned runs over his last six starts spanning 41 2/3's innings. He'll take his very respectable 5-2, 2.62 ERA road record into Chicago to throw opposite Hector Santiago (4-7, 3.27 ERA) who is coming off a victory over the Twins on Sunday, giving up two runs off nine scattered hits with two walks while striking out one over six innings. Santiago has now allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts and two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine outings to the bump. Anyone that's been following me for any length of time knows that "recent performance" plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and there's no debating that each of these hurlers comes into this contest with considerable momentum; whenever two pitchers of this caliber face off against each other, the "under" definitely becomes a legitimate investment opportunity.

Jim Feist

Twins at Indians
Pick: Over

Looks like a high scoring AL game in Cleveland. Minnesota starter Liam Hendriks is hittable, allowing 19 hits in 16 innings and has a 5.29 ERA against Cleveland and the over is 9-3 in Hendriks' last 12 road starts. The over is 4-1 in the Indians last 5 home games and lefty Scott Kazmir is struggling, with a 6.43 ERA his last three starts. He has been complaining about arm fatigue and has allowed 10 earned runs over his last eight innings pitched. The over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Cleveland between these teams, so look for an offensive show.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Jets vs. New York Giants
Play: New York Jets ML

The Annual Preseason battle between the Two New York teams takes center stage in Preseason action tonight. The Giants are the listed home team in this one and are off a Sunday night Loss here to the Colts. The Jets erupted at home for a 37-13 Win over Jacksonville. The Jets through 2 games have an offense that is averaging 368 yards over 110 yards higher than the Giants. The Jets have covered 13 of the last 17 in the series, even with last seasons 26-3 loss. The Jets have Home loss revenge and the Giants have lost outright the last 2 times as a short home favorite. Both teams are expected to play their starters for approximately 3 quarters as this is the all important Game 3. The Giants are 3-14 to the spread in game 3 of the preseason. We will back the Jets plus the points in this game.

Ken Thomson

Arizona -4

Carson Palmer has looked sharp at times in the first two games with the Cards. Fitzgerald will have a banner year if the O-Line can keep Palmer upright. Arizona has an ( 8-1 ) turnover ratio in their favor while the Chargers have been turnover prone themselves coughing the ball away six times in their first two games. Phillip Rivers should see more action Saturday night against a defense that may be underrated and has a strong young secondary led by Patrick Peterson. Expect him to take Tyrann Mathieu under his wing to keep him out of trouble off the field. The folks in AZ are starting to believe in this team and will be well represented by their fans! Cards 24 Chargers 17

Bryan Power

Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis

I won w/ the Cardinals on Friday & might as well come right back w/ them here as it looks to be their weekend at home vs. Atlanta....

Thursday, it was a 6-2 win for St. Louis. Last night, it was a 3-1 victory. The Redbirds have now won six of seven and a poised for more tonight w/ Shelby Miller on the hill. Miller comes in with a 1.99 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. The team won the last time he was on the hill, at Milwaukee, prevailing 8-5.

Atlanta is having issues scoring runs right now. They have just 13 the last six games, an average of just over two per game. Don't forget that this is a big revenge series for the Cardinals, who were swept last month at Turner Field. The Braves are now just .500 on the road, barely averaging 4.0 runs per game. They had only six hits yday against Adam Wainwright. With last night's win, St. Louis moved to 60-34 this season vs. right-handed starters. Therefore, they should handle Braves starter Julio Teheran. The Cards' YTD run differential (+148) remains heads and shoulders above the rest of the National League.

Jack Jones

St. Louis Cardinals -131

The St. Louis Cardinals (75-53) have won six of their last seven games overall to pull within one game of the Pittsburgh Pirates for first place in the NL Central division. Injuries have the Atlanta Braves reeling as they have lost four of six coming in.

I'll gladly back the underrated Shelby Miller at this price at home Saturday. The right-hander has gone 11-8 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 24 starts this season.

Miller has been virtually untouchable at home, going 6-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.000 WHIP In 12 starts. He has only allowed 15 earned runs and 68 base runners while striking out 76 over 68 innings at home this year.

St. Louis is 21-4 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Cardinals are 40-15 in their last 55 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet St. Louis Saturday.

Steve Janus

Atlanta Braves +115

The Braves are showing solid value here as a decent priced road underdog. Atlanta will be extremely motivated here after losing the first two of their 4-game series with the Cardinals. The key today is the Braves have the stronger of the two starters on the mound. Atlanta's Julio Teheran is 4-3 with a 3.25 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA over his last three. St Louis counters with Shelby Miller, who has not looked good since leaving the game early vs the Dodgers on 8/7. He's allowed 7 runs on 13 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings since that start and of note is the 3 home runs he's allowed in those two games. Adding even more value on the dog is the fact that Teheran dominated the Cardinals offense in his only start vs them this season. He threw 7 shutout innings allowing just two hits and one walk.

Bruce Marshall

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres

We're switching sides in this matchup from last night, not something we like to do (especially if we were on the wrong end the previous night), but we usually look to take the Padres whenever Eric Stults is pitching at Petco Park. That's because Stults' home numbers (5-2 record, 2.50 ERA and 0.96 WHIP) are so much better than the corresponding digits when he pitches on the road. Plus the fact that Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija, off a complete game win over the Nats on Monday, rarely puts two quality efforts together.

Bob Balfe

Washington Redskins +1

The Bills have not been to the playoffs in a while, but EJ Manuel will change all of that. This guy could be rookie of the year, but he is out for the rest of the preseason. Buffalo has to be very careful and cannot afford another injury at the QB position. I think the Redskins have better backups and should win this game today. Take Washington.