Harry Bondi
BUFFALO (pick'em) over Washington
After another winner on Seattle last night, we have now hit 5 of our last 6 selections in the NFL Preseason and tonight we have a great situation to go with the visiting Buffalo Bills. The entire country saw how good Washington looked on Monday night when they took down Pittsburgh. The reason the Skins were so effective in that game was because they had 10 days to prepare and they game-planned for it as if it were a regular season game. Now, they play on a short week and with two preseason wins already under their belt they will be more focused on staying healthy, rather than getting a win. Buffalo, meanwhile, is using tonight as its "dress rehearsal" game and will give its starters extended playing time. Take the Bills.
Big Kat Sports
Cubs vs. Padres
Take: Under 7
Here are a few trends that have us leaning towards the Under tonight at Petco.
Under is 7-2 in Cubs last 9 vs. National League West.
Under is 21-7-2 in Cubs last 30 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 12-3-2 in Samardzija’s last 17 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
Under is 12-4 in Padres last 16 vs. National League Central.
Under is 10-4 in Stults’ last 14 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Pair those numbers with the fact that the Under has hit in Under is 11-4-1 in Stult’s last 16 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and we’ll look for more of the same tonight between these two teams in San Diego.
Justin Bay
Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Buffalo Bills Pk
The Buffalo Bills are going to be a sleeper this season, but they have shown this preseason to be strong on both sides of the ball. Both E.J. Manuel and Jeff Tuel have been solid this preseason along with the defense who had struggled last season.
The Redskins have not been as solid this preseason with Kirk Cousins taking the snaps behind center. The stats do not show it but the defense has struggled as well, giving up 21 points to a Titans team that will struggle to get 4 wins this season.
Look for the Bills to put up a bunch of points in the first half and for the Redskins offense to be mediocre.
Chiefs vs. Steelers
Play: Under 40
Both offenses have not performed well this preseason, but the defenses have been looking up. LeVeon Bell will be out for the Steelers so any ideas the Steelers had for running the ball has gone right out the window. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have cashed the under twice this preseason and Tomlin is 16-10-1 in his career cashing the UNDER. Look for both defenses to have their way in his game and keep this a fairly low scoring game.
Bill Biles
Tigers / Mets Under 6
This could be the pitching match up of the year. Max Scherzer vs Matt Harvey. Scherzer has five wins and a 1.69 ERA over his six starts since the all star game, while Matt Harvey has a 2.34 ERA over his last 5 starts. Look for this to be a pitches duel. If you like pitching than this is a game you want to tune in to. Take the under in this one.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -169
Sabathia has been getting lit up like a Christmas tree. He's allowed 5 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. He's also been tagged for at least 5 earned runs in all 4 of his starts versus Tampa Bay this season. The Yankees are 1-6 in Sabathia's last 7 starts versus the Rays and 0-7 in his last 7 road starts against them. Price has held the Yankees to 3 earned runs or less in each of his last 4 starts against them, and he has won duel-after-duel with Sabathia. In fact, the Yankees are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings when Sabathia faces Price. Take the Rays.
Jeff Alexander
Baltimore Orioles -119
Oakland has been a terrible underdog investment of late. It's fallen 9 of the last 10 times it's been valued as an underdog, including 5 straight times when valued as a dog of +110 to +150. The A's have also dropped Game 2 in each of their last 5 series. The Orioles are a perfect 7-0 in Tillman's last 7 starts as a home favorite, and they've won 7 of their last 10 at home versus the A's. Baltimore gets the call.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
It has been another season which will end in disappointment for the Los Angeles Angels, who were considered a strong contender back in April. They never got on track, and will not be playing baseball this October, as originally planned. Jason Vargas has pitched very well at 6-5 with a 3.92 ERA, and has done much better against his former club, as he has a 2.40 ERA against the Mariners in his two starts against them. Erasmo Ramirez is 4-0, but his ERA is not becoming of his record, as he has pitched to an ERA of 5.95. The Angels have seen him once (last September), and touched him up for 5 runs. The Mariners are just 1-5 in their last six at home to a total of 7 to 8.5, and 0-4 behind Ramirez in his last four starts when following a quality start in his last outing. Take the Angels.
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Tennessee Titans in a game of winless teams in the pre-season.
I think the difference is... Atlanta's starters are better than Tennessee's, and considering the Falcons have been blown out in their first two games so far this summer, Mike Smith isn't going to allow the backups to come in any earlier than they have to.
This third game is always the game the starters play the most... and I expect Matt Ryan and company to get as much work as they possibly can.
They're also 5-1 over the last six seasons in the third game of the pre-season which, while it might not be a major relative stat, it does show me that the Falcons like to get after it during this game every year.
Tennessee, on the other hand, could have beaten Washington in Week 1 of the pre-season, but they let the Skins post a late drive and wouldn't be able to muster a rally of their own.
That's because the Tennessee depth is struggling again this year and despite the fact they might jump out to an early lead... it likely won't stand.
I'm thinking the Falcons want this more and will do what it takes.
Take the Falcons plus the points as your free play of the day, and I am instructing all clients to buy the half point up on Atlanta to take them from +3 to +3 1/2 points.
3♦ ATLANTA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie will be to take the Browns as the small road underdog as they play at Indianapolis against the Colts.
Major schedule advantage goes to Cleveland in this one, as the Browns played their last exhibition contest on Thursday night in their home 24-6 win and cover over the Detroit Lions. As for the Colts, Indy saw action this past Sunday night in their 20-12 road outright win at the Giants.
Indianapolis had been looking for a better effort after after getting romped 44-20 at home on Sunday the 11th, and they sure got it last Sunday at MetLife Stadium.
Having said that, I cannot believe that on such a short week the Colts are going to risk getting any of their starters injured as we get ready for the real football to be played in September.
Cleveland has gone 5-1 both straight up and against the spread their last 6 preseason games versus the AFC, and I like them to up that mark to 6-1 as they play an Indianapolis team that will be easing off the gas pedal early in this one.
Brownies the call here.
5♦ CLEVELAND
Brad Wilton
My free play winner for Saturday is to play the total of the Pirates-Giants game to go Over.
While Francisco Liriano has been "lights out" his last pair of starts, allowing just 1 runs to cross in his last 16 innings pitched, the same cannot be said for his counterpart Tim Lincecum. Lincecum does have a no-hitter to his credit this season, but he has been more "hit" than "miss" in his assignments this year.
Lincecum has allowed 11 runs on 16 hits over his last 11 innings, and his home ERA for the year stands at 4.57.
These teams played Over on Thursday night, and held Under last night. Still, the Over is 5-1 the last 6 times the teams have faced one another, and 6-2 overall the last 8 series meetings.
Pittsburgh is on a 5-4 Over clip their last 9, while San Francisco is on a 5-2-1 Over run their last 8 games.
Stick with the offensive numbers even with the stingy Liriano on the hill, as the Bucs are liable to take this one Over the total by themselves.
Pittsburgh-San Francisco Over the total on Saturday night.
2♦ PITTSBURGH-SAN FRANCISCO OVER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the Houston Astros at home for a second-straight night, against the struggling Toronto Blue Jays, who I told you would have problems in the Houston humidity with this series, after getting stymied in New York in a four-game set. Toronto is road weary and are still on the road.
Don't bother listing either starting pitcher - Toronto right-hander Chien-Ming Wang or Houston righty Brad Peacock - because this looks more like a momentum play and simply going against a travel-weary Toronto team that won't want to deal with the climate. Trust me - that's a big deal in baseball.
And Houston is no fun in the summer months, as it's far too humid.
Toronto's six-game losing streak is extended tonight, as the Astros take Game 2.
3♦ HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
I can tell you right now that if I wasn't using the preseason tonight as my premium play, I'd have the San Diego Padres a second-straight night in baseball. They made me money last night, and tonight I'm gifting you the Friars once again, as I like them over the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubbies have lost four straight and the last thing they want is to be Southern California to play a spunky Padres team that might not be headed to the postseason, but that is awfully dangerous at home.
Chicago checks into Petco on additional losing streaks of 1-5 against losing teams, 1-6 as an underdog and 0-5 against National League West teams. The Padres, meanwhile, are on winning runs of 15-7 as a home favorite, 4-1 against righties, 9-2 when Eric Stults starts at home and 6-0 when he is installed as the home chalk.
Take the Padres tonight.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Scott Delaney
The Oakland Athletics are mired in a mini-losing streak here, having dropped three in a row. I don't think this is the right place to be, and certainly not a good team to go against. The Baltimore Orioles are dangerous at home, and though I think this one can be based on momentum and the fact the O's have it in their favor, I also think Chris Tillman on the bump is a good thing.
I won't list either pitcher in this game, but I can tell you having the right-hander up against Oakland is a good thing. Tillman is one of two pitchers this season to have an ERA below 4.00 despite allowing at least 25 homers, and rolls into this game with a 14-4 mark and 3.79 ERA. He's pitched at least six innings in 11 of his last 14 starts and should have confidence after dominating Oakland earlier this season.
Tillmans allowed two runs and seven hits in six innings while beating the A's back on April 27 and has a 2.61 ERA in 10-1/3 career innings against them.
And lest we forget, this is a battle for the American League wild card, while the O's are just 4-1/2 games behind Boston and Tampa Bay in the AL East. Take the Orioles as my free play tonight and play them straight.
2♦ BALTIMORE
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia -3.5 over JACKSONVILLE: The Jags are just a bad team and will be lucky to win 3 or 4 games all year long. Chip Kelly is looking to build confidence and even though this game is vs the Jags, a win is a win. Vick will be starting a good portion of this game and if the Jags couldn't stop the Jet's pop gun attack, how will they stop this one. Kelly is just licking his chops at turning his offense lose on this porous Jacksonville defense. The Jags offense has nothing at all in the way of punch and will be without Gabbart in this one. Henne threw for just 30 yards last week on 4 of 10 passing and just won't do much vs an eagles defense that played well last week vs Cam Newton. This one should be rather easy for Philadelphia.
John Ryan
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win this game. This matchup of teams could very well be a World Series preview. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-14 for 72% winners and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games and with a well rested bullpen who did not throw an inning last game. Dodgers may have been red hot and have surpassed some amazing long ranging MLB winning records, BUT they are just 3-10 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in home games facing a struggling bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. Boston is a great team and are a solid 22-11 (+9.1 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where they committed no errors this season. Both starters are in top form, but looking at the detail reveals that Lester has become extremely difficult to hit of late. He has allowed just 3 ER over his last 3 starts spanning 21 2/3 innings of work. There is a strong likelihood that David Ortiz will out of the lineup and simply getting a day off for rest. Given that Dodger starter Ryu is LH only makes sense to get another RH bat in the Red Sox lineup. Take the Red Sox to roll.