Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday August, 25

Ben Burns

Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo

We're able to get the Bills as home underdogs here and I feel that is providing us with solid value. Buffalo fans were expecting improvement this year but their team is off to an 0-2 start, having been crushed at Minnesota last week. That should provide some added motivation.

The Steelers are well-coached and rarely easy to beat. However, they also arguably have less to prove here. They beat Andrew Luck on National TV last week and faced instate rival Philadelphia in Week 1. They may not "get up" for this one quite the same way.

It should also be noted that the Steelers played on 8/19 while the Bills played on 8/17. The extra rest can often prove beneficial.

The value of getting points in the preseason, even if its only a few, can't be over-looked either. Looking at Week 3 of last year's preseason and we find that eight of the 14 (57%) Thursday-Saturday Week 3 games were decided by four or fewer points.

My assistant tells me that the Bills are 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they were off consecutive SU losses in the preseason. While that's largely "ancient history," I do feel that they've got a solid chance at improving on those stats Saturday evening. Consider grabbing the points.

Jesse Schule

Indianapolis vs. Washington
Pick: Indianapolis

When the Colts face the Redskins in the nation's capital on Saturday, it will be a showcase of the number 1 and 2 draft picks, rookie quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. While both players have been impressive so far this pre-season, Luck has been the better of the two.

Luck exceeded expectations by completing 10 of 16 passes for 188 yards and a pair of TDs in his first game of the pre-season against the Rams. He followed that up with a slightly less spectacular game in Pittsburgh, completing 16 of 25 passes for 175 yards, with a pair of INTs. Given that the Steelers boasted the league's best defense against the pass last year, and the fact that Pittsburgh isn't an easy place to play, those numbers are still quite solid.

Griffin didn't get as much playing time in the first game of the pre-season, but he made the most of it completing 4 of 6 passes and hooking up with Pierre Garcon for a TD. Then against the Bears, he completed 5 of 8 passes for just 49 yards with limited snaps. He can expect to get more playing time in Week 3, but perhaps just the first half, while Luck is likely to go well into the second half.

Washington is banged up in the backfield, with veteran Tim Hightower out recovering from ACL surgery, while Roy Helu has missed time due to an issue with his achilles tendon. The Redskins defense will be without Brian Orakpo, their top pass rusher, as well as strong safety Brandon Meriweather. Veteran linebacker London Fletcher will see action after coming back from an illness, although it is doubtful that the cagey veteran will be giving 100% for a pre-season game at this point in his career.

Washington's offensive line was without three starters last week, however Chris Chester may be be back in action at right guard against the Colts.

Both these teams were impressive in close losses on the road last week against tough teams. This is likely to be a close game, but with the Colts getting a few points, and Luck looking more comfortable behind center, I will lean towards the Colts.

Bryan Power

Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo

Though Bills head coach Chan Gailey's career 5-15 ATS mark in preseason play doesn't seem very appealing, the line move that works to his team's advantage certainly does, so I'll be backing Buffalo Saturday night at home vs. the Steelers. This would be the 0-2 team coming home angle that's been a proven winner in previous NFLX campaigns and considering the Bills did cover as a home dog in their first preseason game against the Redskins, I like them here.

Offensively, it's definitely been an ugly start to the preseason for the Bills as they've scored only 20 points in two games. The quarterback rotation of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Vince Young and Tyler Thigpen should be better than what we've seen to this point, considering all three have starting experience in this league. The good news is that this being the third game we are likely to see more of the first team and in last week's loss to Minnesota, Fitzpatrick looked pretty good in completing 8 of 11 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown. I think the team will also be highly motivated coming off a 36-14 defeat.

So far the Steelers have been involved in two close games, including last Sunday's win (but non-cover) against Indianapolis at home by a final score of 26-24 (-4). Both Pittsburgh preseason games have been decided by two points or less with the defense allowing 24 points in both games. The team will still be without some key contributors on that side of the ball for this game, which I feel means far less to them than it does Buffalo, who is still searching for their first win of the year. The Bills are 14-4 ATS in preseason action after scoring 17 points or less in back to back games.

Carlo Campanella

St Louis Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -5

The Cowboys continue to struggle on offense, especially getting the ball in the end zone. After beating Oakland, 3-0, in their exhibition opener, Dallas looked better week #2 when losing to the Chargers 28-20. With two games under their belt, the Cowboys host a Rams squad who's defense has many holes, as seen when they allowed Colt's rookie QB Luck to light them up for 38 points in his first game in the NFL. This is the Cowboys first home game this preseason and you can be sure that the pressure is on HC Garrett and QB Romo to saddle up the offense and prove to the home fans they can be a Playoff contender this year.

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies and Nationals meet in Game Two of this three-game series in Philadelphia Saturday evening where Roy Halladay toes the slab for the Phils. After a rocky opening two months of the season, Halladay has bounced back strong with team start wins in five of his last seven starts while issuing 5 walks against 29 strikeouts in those efforts. He is also 13-3 with a 2.54 ERA in his 16 career teams starts against the Nats/Expos. With that we'll stay at home with the steady serves of the former Cy Young winner here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Jim Feist

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis has a powerhouse offense, third in baseball in runs scored, tops in on base percentage and sixth in slugging. Jaime Garcia doesn't walk anyone and has dominated the Reds in his career with a 7-1 record and a 3.12 ERA against them. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and face Mike Leake (5-8, 4.59 ERA), who has an ERA over 5 his last three starts. Reds pitcher Mike Leake was knocked around a bit during Monday's series opener against the Phillies. Leake allowed seven runs on 10 hits over just 4 1/3 innings in the contest. He has only managed to win one of his last five starts and has gone 1-2 with a 6.66 ERA over that stretch. Play the Cardinals!

Wunderdog

Detroit at Oakland
Pick: Oakland +3

The Oakland Raiders have been on the short end of a pair of games that played just the opposite of each other. They lost a defensive struggle to Dallas 3-0, and then a shootout in Arizona 31-27. In his first year, Dennis Allen is needs to get his critics under control, especially after starting 0-2. That way he and his team can open the season with something to feel good about, and ease the tension. It has been a long time since the Raiders have contended, but they are close. They were 7-4 a year ago before collapsing down the stetch to miss the playoffs once again. Detroit has been great here under Jim Schwartz at 11-3, but much like Dennis Allen he had much to prove, inheriting a team that had not won in quite some time. The Lions got over the top and into the playoffs, and this game is not as important anymore. I think the Raiders are a bargain here as a home dog. The Lions have performed very badly in recent years vs. teams that are in need of a win to get off the schneid (teams off back-to-back straight-up losses). In this situation, the Lions have losing seven of their last eight ATS. Play on Oakland.

Tom Freese

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

The 54-71 Indians are at home in Cleveland for Game 2 of their 3 game series with the 73-52 Yankees on Saturday. 12-8 Kuroda gets the call for New York while the Indians hand the rock over to 9-11 Masterson for tonight's game. Kuroda comes into this game with an ERA of 2.96 giving up 55 earned runs in 176 innings pitched while allowing 38 walks along with 125 K's. In the Other dugout is Masterson who has an ERA of 4.73 allowing 85 earned runs in 161.7 innings pitched with 70 walks and 127 K's. The Indians are 4-1 in Masterson's last 5 Home Starts and 4-1 in His last 5 Starts against American League East Clubs. The Yankees are 1-4 in their in their last 5 Overall Games and 0-4 in their last 4 Road Games. Cleveland and Masterson get the "W" tonight.

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers -102

After losing Game 1 of this series to the Los Angeles Angels, I have the Detroit Tigers bouncing back with a victory in Game 2 Saturday. They have a big edge on the mound in this one, which is the main reason for this selection.

Rookie Drew Smyly has been solid this season, going 4-3 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.273 WHIP over 15 starts. The left-hander has been at his best at home, posting a 3.86 ERA over six home starts in 2012.

Dan Haren has lost it this year, going 8-10 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 22 starts. Haren is 0-2 with a 12.86 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 10 earned runs, 15 base runners and three homers over 7 innings.

Detroit is 17-3 in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The Tigers are 20-6 in their last 26 home games overall. Bet Detroit Saturday.

Dave Cokin

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Gotta figure the Steelers are all business here following the stunning firing of their special teams coach. Chan Gailey continues not to show any urgency in pre-season, a longstanding trait for the Bills head coach. I'll spot the number with the Steelers.

Tony Stoffo

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants

With the Giants red hot right now and Madison Bumgarner getting the start today against the Braves - makes for a highly recommended play on the Giants in this spot. If their ever was going to be a letdown for the Giants it would have been last night after sweeping the Dodgers in LA. However they continue their solid play with another win against Atlanta last night. So I now can see them continuing they winning ways here today - especially with Bumgarner is pitching right now - in his last 3 starts he has allowed just 4 runs and 12 hits in 23 innings pitched while striking out 23. All this has resulted in a 1.57 ERA and a minuscule 0.609 WHIP. San Francisco the play here today.

Scott Spreitzer

Chicago White Sox -174

The Sox snapped the Mariners hot streak last night with a pair of runs in the bottom of the 9th after watching Seattle score six times in the top of the inning to take an 8-7 lead. Saturday's pitching matchup leads me to believe the Sox will get the job done without all the drama. Lefthander Jose Quintana has posted a 2.36 ERA & 1.00 WHIP in seven home appearances this season, including six starts. His teammates will face hittable righty Blake Beavan on Saturday. Beavan has been smacked for 31 earned runs in his last 45 1/3 innings on the road, to go along with a 1.79 HRs per 9 IP mark. The last nine teams he's faced on the road have averaged 5.33 rpg against the Mariners. Seattle is on a 31-86 slide on the road as a dog of +1.51 to +2.00. They're 3-9 in Beavan's last 12 starts on five days rest. Meanwhile, the White Sox are on a 20-6 run at home and they're 37-14 in their last 51 at home against Seattle. I'm laying the price with the White Sox on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

JR O'Donnell

Colorado Rockies -107

The J Oster on a 50-74 Colo Rockies ball club that has suddenly caught fire with the pitching staff... The Rockies roll with White today as he is ready to throw a gem in Chicago.... The Cubbies are not swinging the bats well right now. They sport a terrible .219 BA so far for August.. They will roll with lefty Brooks Raley (1-2, 7.63) from Texas Am.... he will get shelled today.. Take the Rockies .

Dave Essler

Oakland +3

Oakland is now reasonably healthy, and in case you didn't know (I did not) last season after Palmer had some time under his belt in the new system, without rust, and with all his weapons, he was the 6-8th (or so) rated passer the last handful of games. I almost always like to fade dome teams outdoors as the lose a fair bit of their team speed. On the Detroit side of the ball, I have no real impetus to put my money on Shaun Hill, and Kellen Moore is fighting for a roster spot.

On the other side of the ball TE Brandon Myers is back for the Raiders after missing the Arizona game, and he is key to blocking the Lions pass rush. I'm not a huge Leinhart fan by any means, but he's servicable. I am not a huge Tyrelle Pryor fan either, but in a late game situation his athleticism in and of itself is enough to move the chains against third (or worse) string defenses.

In short, this little line is begging for people to take the trendy and somewhat (at least of now) over valued Lions over the often maligned Raiders, and we're just not buying it.