Jimmy Boyd
St. Louis Cardinals -108
The Cardinals have won 4 in a row, and I expect them to keep rolling with Jaime Garcia on the mound. Garcia has posed big problems for the Reds. The southpaw is 7-1 (7-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.78 in 9 career starts against them. The Cardinals are 5-1 in Garcia's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. His dominance against Cincinnati is why we see St. Louis in the chalk today. This is significant because the Reds are only 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home underdog. Cincy's Mike Leake is just 1-2 (2-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.40 in 4 career starts versus the Cards. I'm taking St. Louis.
MLB Predictions
York Yankees -148
After being swept by Chicago the Yankees bounced back with a 3-1 win as their ace CC Sabathia returned to the mound. The loss was Cleveland's 9th straight loss, and they have been horrible over that span scoring just 6 runs over their last 5 games. The Yankees have Hiroki Kuroda on the mound tonight, and he has been outstanding as of late with a 1.39 ERA over his last 7 starts. On the year he is 12-8 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .240 opponents batting average. Cleveland will send Justin Masterson to the rubber tonight who is 9-11 on the year with a 4.73 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .264 opponents batting average. Over 6 July starts Masterson had a 5.55 ERA, and it hasn't gotten better as he has a 6.35 ERA over 4 August starts. In his last outing he went 5.2 innings giving up 9 hits and 7 earned runs against in Oakland. The Yankees are 9-2 in Kuroda's last 11 starts, and 43-21 in their last 64 games as a favorite. The Indians are 17-39 in their last 56 games overall, 5-21 in their lsat 26 games following a loss, and 1-5 in Masterson's last 6 starts as an underdog between +151 and +200. The Yankees are 10-4 in their last 14 games in Cleveland, and we will lay the chalk on them to win tonight behind Kuroda.
San Diego Padres +164
The Padres won last night's meeting 5-0 as even bigger underdogs than they are tonight. The win was the Padres 5th straight win and they've scored 26 runs over those 5 games (just over 5 runs per game). The Diamondbacks split a 4 game series with Miami at home before last night's loss and now are 2-3 over their lsat 5, scoring just 16 runs over that span. Tonight's starter for San Diego is Clayton Richard who is 10-12 on the year with a 3.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .254 opponents batting average. His last outing was against San Francisco where he went 8 innings giving up 5 hits and 0 earned runs. Over his last 3 starts he is 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Richard has faced Arizona twice this year going 6.2 innings allowing 1 earned run and 8.2 innings allowing 2 earned runs (both in San Diego wins). Ian Kennedy will be starting for Arizona and he is 11-10 on the season with a 4.24 ERAm 1.34 WHIP, and .277 opponents batting average. In his last three starts he is 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The Padres have won 4 straight meetings with the Diamondbacks and I think tonight they have a good shot at upsetting behind Richard who has done well against the D'backs. Take the Padres as big underdogs.
Dave Price
Washington Nationals +105
The Nats are showing value in the underdog role with Gio Gonzalez on the hill. They are 19-6 in his starts this season, 10-1 in his last 11 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. The Phillies are just 2-7 in Halladay's last 9 starts on regular rest (4 days) and 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. the National League East. Bet Washington.
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie is the Over in the Colts-Redskins preseason game.
One thing for certain about this Andrew Luck kid, he seems to know how to put points on the scoreboard. Two pro games played - albeit preseason - and two games easily Over the total. Time to make it three games played and three games Over the total as Indy invades Washington for the highly-anticipated Luck-RGIII showdown of this year's top two selections in the draft. Sure they may only play the first half, but that should be long enough to put us well on our way to the points needed to head Over the total.
After a sluggish 7-6 game at Buffalo, the Redskins went into Chicago last week and finished with a massive 64 combined points on the scoreboard. With this being the first look the home crowd gets at their new-look team in game action, I look for the points to be flying once again.
Indianapolis and Washington head Over the total on Saturday night as Luck and Griffin give NFL fans a glimpse at the future.
4* INDIANAPOLIS-WASHINGTON OVER
Your Saturday freebie is for Gio Gonzalez and Roy Halladay to lock horns in a low-scoring pitcher's duel.
Play the Nationals and the Phillies game to hold Under the total.
With last night's Under, these division rivals are now on a 5-2 Under tear the last seven times they have played dating back to May.
Washington has played Under the total in six of their last eight games, while Philly comes into this one having played Under the total to a 5-2-1 clip their last eight games.
Looking at the pitching matchup, Gio Gonzalez sports a 2.53 ERA over his last three starts, and for the season on the road his ERA is at 3.26. This will be his third start of the year against the Phillies, thus far he has worked 13 innings of one run ball. I do not see the Phils mustering much offense in this their third look at the southpaw.
Roy Halladay was hit hard by the Reds in his last trip to the bump, but in his four starts prior, he had not allowed more than three runs in any of them.
Things stay quiet at the plate in this one, take the Nationals and Phillies to hold Under the total.
2* WASHINGTON-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
MATT RIVERS
Your Saturday free play comes in the NFL, as I take the underdog Rams to stay inside of the number in Dallas against the Cowboys.
Still not entirely sold on Dallas' offense at this point, and even though they were able to score 20-points against San Diego, they did allow 28 to score against them as they have split a pair of games this August.
New head coach Jeff Fisher has his Rams at 1-1 as well, but St. Louis looked pretty strong last week in cruising past Kansas City by two touchdowns.
Sam Bradford was sharp in that win over the Chiefs, going 6-for-9 for 102 yards and a pair of TD passes. Expect him to go a little longer in this one, and the fact the rest of the St. Louis back-ups - Davis, Clemens, and Brandstater - all look capable of putting some points on the board tells me that even if Dallas were to win this game, I do not think it is going to be by the required impost.
Tony Romo has not yet thrown a touchdown pass this summer, and with Austin and Witten sidelined, there are not many proven targets to catch balls right now.
Dallas gets their win, but this one will be close.
Take the Rams plus the points.
1* ST. LOUIS
DOM CHAMBERS
For today’s free play, let’s go with the Texas Rangers on the run line to beat the Minnesota Twins.
After a rough start with the Rangers, it looks like Ryan Dempster has found his stride and giving the Rangers the outings they were expecting from him.
In his last three starts, he is 2-1 with a 3.92 ERA.
In those three outings, he has two games he gave up only one earned run. That was sandwiched around a bad outing where the Yankees posted eight runs.
But these are the Yankees he is facing today.
The Twins have one of the worst winning percentages in the major leagues, and have lost nine of their last 10 games. In those nine losses, they would have covered the run line only once.
The Rangers, especially at home, have the offense to pummel the Twins and easily cover the run line.
2* RANGERS -1.5
SCOTT DELANEY
My free pick for Saturday night is on the Chicago White Sox on the Run Line, getting it done with ease over the Seattle Mariners. Last night might have deflated the M's, as Paul Konerko's double drove in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth to lead the White Sox to a 9-8 win. The South Siders had collapsed in the top half of the ninth, with a 7-2 lead, as the M's scored six runs, turning a 7-2 deficit into an 8-7 lead.
It marked the first time in franchise history the White Sox have won a game in the bottom of the ninth after allowing at least six runs in the top half of the inning; the only one other team to win in that fashion the last 30 years was the Cubs, against the Rockies, in 2007.
So for the M's to have to comeback after their own collapse, well, let's just say I'd much rather have the White Sox, feeding off their momentum.
2* WHITE SOX -1.5
David Banks
Texans / Saints Over 44
The New Orleans Saints (1-2, 2-1 ATS) looked like a team with suspended players on defense last week vs. lowly Jacksonville, while the Houston Texans (2-0, 2-0 ATS) have looked every bit like the possible Super Bowl contenders that some project them to be. The significance of all that is this third week of preseason is the week that the starters play the longest, so strengths and weaknesses will be brought to light. The two teams get together down on The Bayou Saturday night at 8:00 ET from the Superdome in New Orleans, LA in a game televised nationally on CBS.
The Saints will be short-handed all year with linebacker Jonathan Vilma suspended for the whole season, and New Orleans will also be without its best pass rusher Will Smith until Week 5 of the regular season. Both suspensions were handed down in the wake of the Bountygate scandal that also resulted in Head Coach Sean Payton being suspended for the year. The Saints performed admirably on the defensive end in their first two games, but keep in mind that their first two opponen6s, the Arizona Cardinals and the New England Patriots, each played their starters for just a couple of possessions. The Saints were exposed defensively last week though vs. the normally putrid Jaguars' offense in a 27-24 loss, as perhaps one of the worst starters in the NFL in Blaine Gabbert completed 13 of 16 passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns, and the Jaguars also added a whopping 170 rushing yards. Moreover, remember that Maurice Jones-Drew is still holding out, and it was Rashad Jennings leading the way with 62 rushing yards in 11 carries (5.6 YPC). The Saints should have no worries on the offensive end and they did accumulate 416 yards vs. the Jags, but they will not have things as easy as usual vs. the first string Houston defense for nearly three quarters.
The best news about the Texans' 20-9 beatdown of the 49ers last week was that Andre Johnson saw his first game action since aggravating a groin in one of the first days of training camp, and he seemed fully healthy on a 43-yard reception. With Johnson and quarterback Matt Schaub both now healthy after injury plagued 2011 campaigns, it gives Houston amazing balance as it now has a very good passing offense to go with the best running game in football led by Arian Foster and Ben Tate. And don't forget about the defense, which improved by leaps and bounds after hiring Wade Phillips as the defensive coordinator last year and that has continued to impress this season, as the Texans suffocated one of the best offenses in the NFL on the road in Carolina 26-13 before last week's second stellar defensive showing. Yes, Houston lost sack specialist Mario Williams to Buffalo in free agency, but you must remember he was lost for the season fairly early last year and there was no noticeable drop-off in the Houston defense, and that has continued this preseason.
Houston's Coach Gary Kubiak is now 15-11 during preseason with the two wins this year, although he is just 3-3 in Week 3 dress rehearsals. Then again, he may now be coaching the best team in Texans franchise history.
Hollywood Sports
Brewers at Pirates
Prediction: Under
Milwaukee (58-66) won the opening game of this series by a 6-5 score last night -- and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total following a win. The Brewers have also won 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs. The see the return of Marcum tonight who comes off the disabled list to make this start. Marcum is 5-3 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP this season -- but he has been much better on the road where he enjoys a 2.76 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .208. The Under is a decisive 16-3-2 in Milwaukee's last 21 road games with Marcum on the mound. The Under is also 5-2-1 in the Brewers' last 8 games with Marcum pitching as an underdog. Pittsburgh (67-58) counters with Karstens who is 4-3 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP this year. Since coming off the disabled list himself, Karstens owns a 3.12 ERA with a strong 38:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 52 innings of work. The right-hander has been outstanding at home where he sports a 2.12 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with Karstens facing a team with a losing record. The Pirates have also played 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing records overall. And this team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs.
Frank Jordan
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Indianapolis Colts
Washington is 1-1 in RG3's first two preseason games as they won in Chicago 7-6, but lost a slugfest 33-31 at Chicago. Now the home faithful get their first in person as the Skins host the Colts. Andrew Luck has put up the points for Indianapolis thus far this preseason scoring 38 and 24 points in their first two games. In the first they won at home over St. Louis 38-3 and the second lost a tough fought game at Pittsburgh. Now that they go to DC look for the young guns to match scoring drives and Luck and the Colts to outlast RG3 and the Skins. Play Indianapolis
Ross King
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Washington Nationals
Gio Gonzalez is looking for a cy young this year and looks to win his 17th game this season.Washington is 19-9 versus teams with a losing record in the second half of the season.Roy Halladay is 11-2 with a 2.53 e.r.a versus Washington and Gonzalez is 2-0 with an e.r.a of 0.69.Clearly this is a different Washington team then he has faced in the past and factor in Washington is 14-7 on Saturdays while Philadelphia is 6-14.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +104 over PHILADELPHIA
Roy Halladay is one of the biggest household names in sports. He’s carried himself with nothing but class ever since arriving on the scene way back in 1998. He’s a model of consistency, a Cy Young award winner and the list goes on. He also should not be favored over Washington and Gio Gonzalez.
Age affects most everyone. Halladay has pitched over 2600 innings over 396 appearances. He’s 7-7 this season in 18 starts with a 3.95 ERA. At home he’s 4-3 with a 3.63 ERA and over his last five starts he’s 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA. Consistent? Definitely. Dominating? Not. Beatable? Yes.
Philadelphia has just 15 wins in 38 tries against southpaws and Gonzalez is one of the best. Gonzalez has already shut Philly down twice this season (13 IP, 1 ER, 16/4 K/BB) and there’s no reason he can’t do it again. He has 161 K’s in 153 innings, a 3.27 xERA, a 10-2 record on the road with a 3.26 ERA and he’s also pitching for the best team in baseball. Win or lose, taking back juice with a top team, an elite pitcher while facing an inferior opponent is simply a no-brainer.
PITTSBURGH -103 over Milwaukee
The Pirates are still not being taken seriously. Here’s a team with more home wins than the Nationals and with the third highest home win total in the NL, yet here they are a mere pick’em in their own yard against a Milwaukee team that boasts a woeful 20-38 road record, not to mention the Brewers hapless bullpen.
Shaun Marcum comes off the DL to make this start after a two-month hiatus so there’s a reasonable expectation that we’ll see the Brewers awful pen. It marked the fourth time in the past five seasons that Marcum has succumbed to injury - including Tommy John surgery which erased his entire 2009 campaign. Marcum is a free-agent at the end of this year and with a history of durability issues, there is pressure on him to perform well. His fly-ball bias profile (42%) makes him an even bigger risk.
Meanwhile, Jeff Karstens is healthy and on a roll. Karstens only pitched 12 innings in April before shoulder trouble landed him on the shelf for two months. He's been mostly effective since returning to the rotation in mid-June, including a 2-0 month of July with a 2.67 ERA. The Pirates have won four of his past six starts. Even though 13 starts is a small sampling, Karstens has managed to bump up his strikeout rate and lower his walk rate to levels that warrant our attention. Karstens has put together effective stretches in the past, including a 2.65 ERA in the first half of last year and while he occasionally gets hit hard, he’s certainly undervalued here against a team that doesn’t win on the road often with a pitcher coming off a two-month DL stint.
SPORTS WAGERS
Indianapolis +3½ over WASHINGTON
The Redskins 33-31 loss in Chicago last week looks much better on paper than it actually was. Washington was down 30-10 heading to the fourth quarter when the Bears third and fourth units entered the game. They made it close but let’s call a spade a spade. Washington’s first and second units couldn’t score on Buffalo or Chicago.
The Colts are prepping diligently in this pre-season. New head coach, Chuck Pagano is the former defensive coordinator for the Ravens, hired to John Harbaugh's first coaching staff in 2008. Pagano's defense in Baltimore finished 3rd in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Pagano is busy implementing the same aggressive and quick defense. It will take time, of course, but the team is buying into it and they are treating this kind of game different than most.
Andrew Luck and the starting offense are expected to play into the third quarter. Here’s what Bruce Arians, the Colts offensive coordinator had to say about this game, "We are using 60 to 70 percent of our stuff. For us right now, to be successful is more important than hiding anything. We want to be successful, build confidence in everybody, not just Andrew, but in the whole unit.” In two preseason games, the offense has been sharp and the defense is getting better. Indy rolled up 38 on St. Louis in their pre-season opener and just missed winning in Pittsburgh last week when they hung a 24 on the Steelers. This is a team that wants to succeed badly in the pre-season to change last year’s debacle and with all the hype surrounding RG3, we get a very nice number to work with here.
Jeff Alexander
San Francisco Giants -150
The Braves have lost 6 of 7 while the Giants have won 5 in a row. It's also worth noting that the Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. the National League West, 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in Minor's last 4 road starts. The Giants are 21-6 in their last 27 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 8-0 in Bumgarner's last 8 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in their last 5 versus the Braves. Bet the Giants on the money line.
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is now at 96-62-2 after scoring a blowout winner on the Atlanta Falcons over the Miami Dolphins. Tonight I keep it in the NFL preseason, with the Over in the St. Louis Rams/Dallas Cowboys clash in Big D.
We traditionally see preseason totals ranging between 33 and 37, maybe 38. Tonight's Cowboys-Rams clash is sitting on 41, an while the over/under is 1-1 in the Cowboys’ preseason so far, the Rams have gone past the installed totaled in their first two preseason games.
And even though they're averaging just 17 points per game, the Rams have to know they're likely in store for a high-scoring game tonight. If they don't, I do. The oddsmakers are telling us they are. They must be, right? Dallas has given up an average of 14 points per game the first two weeks, albeit one week it stymied the Raiders, 3-0, and last week it lost 28-20.
But we all know the Cowboys' Rob Ryan has something to prove with a defense that didn't live up to his reputation as a defensive coordinator, last season.
Neither team has done anything impressive on offense this season, and I'm pretty sure if there is one game both offensive units are going to explode, it's going to be tonight's clash in Big D.
There's nothing concrete, and nothing special statistically. I simply see an indicator by the oddsmakers in this one, as we've had a pair of relatively lethargic teams with a relatively high total. Play this one high.
1♦ Rams/Cowboys Over