Matt Rivers
Your Saturday free play comes in the NFL, as I take the underdog Rams to stay inside of the number in Dallas against the Cowboys.
Still not entirely sold on Dallas' offense at this point, and even though they were able to score 20-points against San Diego, they did allow 28 to score against them as they have split a pair of games this August.
New head coach Jeff Fisher has his Rams at 1-1 as well, but St. Louis looked pretty strong last week in cruising past Kansas City by two touchdowns.
Sam Bradford was sharp in that win over the Chiefs, going 6-for-9 for 102 yards and a pair of TD passes. Expect him to go a little longer in this one, and the fact the rest of the St. Louis back-ups - Davis, Clemens, and Brandstater - all look capable of putting some points on the board tells me that even if Dallas were to win this game, I do not think it is going to be by the required impost.
Tony Romo has not yet thrown a touchdown pass this summer, and with Austin and Witten sidelined, there are not many proven targets to catch balls right now.
Dallas gets their win, but this one will be close.
Take the Rams plus the points.
1♦ ST. LOUIS
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Saturday is on the MLB diamond, as I head to the American League East and play the Baltimore Orioles laying a cheap chalk against the struggling Toronto Blue Jays, who have now lost six in a row.
Today the Jays get to face young Stevie Johnson, who will make the second start of his Major League career, last throwing an inning of relief on Wednesday. The 24-year-old righty is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in four games with the Orioles, and brings an impressive arsenal with him into this one. Earlier this month, Johnson struck out nine over six innings in his first major league start, to help the O's complete a three-game series sweep over Seattle.
I think the Los Angeles Dodgers are missing out on this kid, who became an Oriole as a result of a 2009 trade. Johnson was born in Baltimore, and pitched in high school for the nearby St. Paul's squad, so his emergence makes for an interesting atmosphere when he's starting at Camden Yards.
He throws a fairly straight fastball that sits around the low 90’s upon arrival, while he adds a curveball as his best secondary offering. He's worked tirelessly with it, as his command was once off. He no longer leaves it up in the zone, and compliments both those with a slider and changeup.
Look for him to dominate the Jays tonight.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Rob Vinciletti
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -1.5
This is a run line play at -1.5 runs as the Mets are heavily favored in this one. Teams like the Mets that are home favorites in this range have cashed nearly 90% of the time if they are off a home favored loss at -200 or higher and scored 2 or less runs and lost by 2 or more runs, vs an opponent like Houston that won as a road dog of +140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs. Houston with the win last night snapped their 8 game losing streak taking their road record to 13-51 on the year. They may be the only team playing worse than the Mets. New York will look to out an end to their 6 game losing streak with their ace. R.A. Dickey is on the mound today and he is 9-3 with a 2.37 home era. He will oppose Astros lefty Abad who has only pitched 23 innings this season and has a 3.86 era allowing 28 hits and 4 home runs so far this year. The Mets for all their struggle are actually 4 games over .500 in day games. Look for them to win this one today.
Joe Gavazzi
Pittsburgh Pirates -113
Milwaukee has long owned Pittsburgh and enters on a 4 game win streak. After surging to 16 games over .500, the Pirates have gone 9-16 and lost 4 straight. Look for things to turn around today. First we must not ignore the fact that the Pirates endured those losses at the hands of the Brewers when they were the inferior team. Now, their record is 8½ games better than Milwaukee, Pittsburgh has a 37-24 home mark compared to 20-38 for Milwaukee who is recently 2-14 away. Today Milwaukee sends Marcum to the mound. This will be his first start in 10 weeks since going on the DL with an elbow injury on that surgically repaired joint. He will be on an 85 pitch count meaning one of the worst relief corps in MLB will be pitching the late innings. Not only does Milwaukee have a 4.75 bullpen ERA but they have just a 55% save rate. Pittsburgh counters with Karstens who has a 2.12 ERA from this mound in 5 starts. He is backed by a bullpen that has a 2.98 ERA and is an 82% save rate, the best in the National League. It all adds up to our contrary winner today.
Andre Gomes
Athletics / Rays Under 7
With the series tied at 1-1, these two teams will be fighting today to see who will win this key series for the wild card race. Oakland won yesterday's game via a 2-run HR in the 8th inning and they will start today McCarthy, who has been struggling a bit since his return from the DL. He was pounded on his last start against Minnesota, where he allowed a season-high of six runs in 3.1 IP. However, he has always been a very tough matchup for the Rays. Tampa Bay's roster is only hitting .215 BA and .646 OPS against him in 93 AB's and that's because of McCarthy's cutters that puts the Rays hitters in a lot of problems, as they are terrible in batting against this kind of pitch. With McCarthy having had more time to regain his normal rhythm with his pitches since his last start, I expect him to bounce back against a team that really struggles to hit against him.
On the other hand, the Rays will start Hellickson and he is coming from two amazing outings, where he allowed just one run in seven innings in each start. He lost 0-1 against Seattle in Felix Hernandez's perfect game and then dominated the Royals at home by allowing just six hits against him. His FIP/xFIP of 1.81/2.65 and 3.24/4.50 on his last two games shows that he has regained his good form and so, he has now the perfect conditions to get revenge on the Athletics for the terrible outing he had against Oakland back in May, where he allowed 5 hits and 3 earned runs in just 3.2 IP.
With this being an early game and a series-ending game, with both teams having a rest day tomorrow, I believe both starting pitchers will dominate today, with McCarthy handling the Rays with his cutters, while Hellickson should have another good outing like he had on his last two outings. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.
Joseph D'Amico
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: New York Yankees
New York has taken all 4 meetings over Cleveland this season. Captain Derek Jeter was hit by a pitch yesterday but is expected to play today. The Bronx Bombers rank 4th in the Majors in RPG, averaging 4.88 runs an outing, 8th in BA at .266, 1st in OPS at .795, and 1st in HRs with 194 round-trippers. From 1 to 9, the Yankees have one of the most dangerous lineups in Baseball. Rodriguez is out. No problem. Take your pick…Jeter, Cano, Swisher, Suzuki, Teixeira, Granderson, Chavez, Ibanez, and Martin. They all strike fear in opposing pitchers. Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound today. The RH is 12-8 this season, sporting a 2-0, 1.54 mark in his L3 starts. The Team ERA Leader has faced Cleveland earlier this season, going 7.0 innings with a 1.29 ERA, and earning the victory. He faces an Indians team that has slipped into 4th place in the AL Central at 54-71, losing 9 straight contests and averaging a mere 2.7 RPG in that span. Justin Masterson gets the nod today. The RH is 9-11 with a 4.73 ERA this campaign. His team is 2-3 in Masterson's starts vs. NY in his career. The Yankees are 19-7 their L26 games played vs. the Indians, 49-24 their L73 games played against teams with a losing record, and 9-2 in Kuroda's L11 overall starts. The Indians are 3-7 their L10 games played vs. RH starters, 18-37 their L55 games played as a 'dog, and 17-39 their L56 games played overall. Take New York.
Wunderdog
Kansas City at Boston
Pick: Boston -150
Blockbuster trade rumors swirl Boston, as Beckett, Punto, Gonzalez, and Crawford are all in the mix. Beckett is still scheduled for this one, but that could change. The Red Sox still went out and won amidst the rumors last night. The Royals' starter, Jeremy Guthrie, has an awful track record against Boston with just 3 wins 17 starts against them. Boston has long dominated losing teams at Fenway Park where they are 203-98 in their last 301 here against them. The Royals are just 8-20 in their last 28 road games, which includes an 0-9 mark vs. a team with a losing record. Kansas City owns just a 10-25 mark in their last 35 in Boston. Play on Boston.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -102 over L.A. Angels
Having the Angels favored over Detroit at Comerica is completely off the mark here.
Dan Haren was whacked for five runs in 3.2 innings in his last start by the Rays, while the Halos have lost his last three starts. The warning signs were plentiful before his last start when we mentioned that Haren is a prime sell high candidate. Nothing has changed. His walks are up, his strikeouts are way down, his fly-ball rate has increased dramatically to the point in which he now owns a fly-ball bias profile. Haren was scratched from an August start already this season and with back, shoulder and arm troubles from his past, Haren is a pitcher to avoid.
The Tigers wasted little time calling up Drew Smyly for this start after Doug Fister came up lame. The Tigers roster has been crippled by injury and Smyly is dealing with his own recent issues that have led to a minor DL stint (intercostal strain) but he has enough skills to succeed when healthy. He was notably strong in his first six outings, when he allowed just six earned runs and three home runs over 34 innings. Overall, he has 75 K’s in 79 innings. Smyly has always displayed strong skills no matter what level he’s pitched at. A solid ERA and an even better xERA assure us of that. Tremendous value being offered here with an up and comer vs. a spiraling downer.