Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 27,2011

Ultimate Sport Picks

Falcons vs. Steelers
Play: Over 35.5

This over/under is down playing how good these offenses are. Everyone knows the Steelers defense is great, but for the last three or four years the Steelers have been able to put up a lot of points with there offense. Both teams in this match-up will be able to move the ball on each other a lot better than the point total is indicating. Look for a balanced attack of run and pass lead by quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner to put up some points. Falcons should put up around 17-21 points through the first three quarters with the starters in. Also, do not fall asleep on Pittsburgh's offense. Look for Big Ben to have a lot of big completions down field. If there was one concern coming into the game that makes this a small play; it would be the Falcons do have a tendency to drain the clock on drives. But we still feel good, take the over in this game. We see it landing in the 40's.

Tony Stoffo

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills

Preseason Week #3 Saturday August 27th Jacksonville at Buffalo Great spot for the Bills here after looking horrible in their first 2 preseason games on the road. I definitely feel head coach Chan Gailey will want to build some momentum going into the season and want the win here tonight. And what a perfect opponent with the Jacksonville Jaguars inept defense coming to town. The Jaguars first and second stingers have both looked lousy so far thos preseason allowing over 700+ yards in offense. So you can see how the Bills can put up a big number on the scoreboard here tonight. An inspired team playing at home against an inferior defense makes for a solid release on Buffalo in this spot.

Carlo Campanella

Seahawks vs. Broncos
Play: Over 37

After finishing last year's Exhibition season at 3-1, Minnesota opened the 2011 preseason without QB Farve and struggled to put points on the board during a 14-3 loss at Tennessee. While they only scored 3 points, the Vikings still rushed for 98 yards and passed for another 150 and should turn things around against a Seattle defense that allowed 17 points during their first game. Minnesota averaged 23.2 points per game during the 2010 preseason and are 10-1 (Over/Under) after scoring 10 points or less during Exhibition play.

Hollywood Sports

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Detroit Lions

In this battle of two undefeated teams in the preseason, it may be tempting to take the road team given the notorious lack of value of home field advantage in preseason games. But that angle is neutralized by the fact that the Lions are the underdog in this contest. Coach Jim Schwartz has seen his club cover all six preseason games under his watch against non-conference opponents. A strong showing against the Patriots would go a long way to fuel the momentum Detroit enjoys entering this new season. And coming off the heels of their dominant 31-14 win in Tampa Bay, New England appears right on track to open their season and will not want to risk injuries. Take the Lions with the points.

Jim Feist

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners

Seattle plays its best baseball at home and Chicago is a long way from home. White Sox starter John Danks (5-9) has been erratic and the White Sox are 4-10 in Danks' last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record, plus 2-7 his last 9 road starts. A weak Chicago offense has to face hard throwing Michael Pineda (9-7, 3.73 ERA), who has more strikeouts than innings pitched and only 114 hits allowed in 147 innings. He has a 2.57 ERA against Chicago this season and the Mariners are 5-2 in Pineda's last 7 home starts. Play the Mariners!

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

The line is 2-1 here tonight so we will play this on the run line at -1.5. The Brewers apply to a solid 26-5 system that plays on certain Home favorites off a -140 or higher home favored win by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs with 5+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog +140 or higher loss by 2 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs. This long winded system has had solid results. Plus the Brewers are a superior home team this season. Milwaukee has won 25 of the last 32 vs losing teams and are averaging over 6 runs per game the past week. They have taken 6 of 7 here at home vs the Cubs. Chicago has lost 11 of 13 as a road dog in this range and are scoring just 2.6 runs per game the past week. Chicago send R. Dempster to the Mound and while he has been decent of late he runs into Y. Gallardo here tonight. Gallardo has won 4 of his last five. In his most recent home starts Gallardo has allowed just 3 earned runs in 29 innings. Look for The Brewers to take another vs Chicago here tonight.

Kyle Hunter

White Sox vs. Mariners
Play: Under: 7

The Chicago White Sox have struggled offensively all season long. Michael Pineda and John Danks squared off earlier this year and the final was 3-1. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one, and he may be the best 'under' umpire in all of baseball. His wide strike zone should help both pitchers quite a bit in this one. The under is 21-8 in the White Sox last 29 road games. The under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams in Seattle. Expect a well pitched game here. Take the under.

Freddy Wills

Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Oakland Athletics GM 1

This might be daring considering how well the Red Sox have played during day games, but the game starts at noon I doubt either team will be up for this and I'll go with the pitcher the other team has not seen at all and that would be Guillermo Moscoso who came over from the Rangers and in his last three starts he's 2-1 with a 0.75 WHIP and 1.80 ERA. The Red Sox have never faced him and that will be good enough of an edge for me to lay some cash on a +245 value play. Add in how well the A's offense has been clicking of late 36 runs in their last 4 games including 15 on Friday night.

Jon Lester goes for the Red Sox, but the A's have had a history of success vs. Lester as he has a career 4.95 ERA and has given up 10 ER in his last 2 starts over 11.2 innings. That should give them the confidence to keep doing what they have been doing. Moscoso is also posting a 3.00 ERA during day starts and although Lester has been dominant during day starts I'll roll as this seems like it will be a low scoring close game and at +245 we can't go wrong.

EZWINNERS

Denver Broncos -4

The Seattle Seahawks picked up Tarvaris Jackson in the off season to be their new starting quarterback and that was a real head scratcher for me. I'm not high on T-Jack at all and I think Seattle is in for a horrible season. They were one of the worst teams at running the ball last season and I don't expect them to improve much on that this year as they still have a lot of question marks on the offensive line. T-Jack has been running for his life behind a struggling offensive line and I look for it to continue. The Denver defense has been playing well as the starting group has only allowed six points in the first to preseason game and I expect them to play well in this game. On offense Denver needs to establish more of a running game and I think they will accomplish that in this game. Kyle Orton will also show that he is the rightful starter in Denver now that the Tim Tebow project has been put on ice for a while. Lay the points.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

BOSTON -1.5 (-125) Over Oakland: Well you have to feel that the Sox will be pumped up for this one, after getting destroyed last night by the A's. The A's are just 12-29 in their last 41 games in boston and they are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a dog of 201 or greater, plus they are 0-4 in their last 4 games 1 of a doubleheader. Boston is 22—3 in Lester's last 25 games a s a favorite of 201+, and they are 44-16 in his last 60 home starts overall. Normally the Sox do well in home games with Lester on the mound, but they are just 5-5 this this. They are 4-1 vs the RL in his 5 team home wins this year and in his 4 team wins vs the A's. In his career, they are 4-0 vs the RL. Let's also note the Lester is 6-0 with a 1.55 ERA in day games and the Sox have outscored their opponents by 4.63 rpg in those games. Guillermo Moscoso is just 2-5 with a 3.80 ERA on the road, while in his last 3 starts on the road he is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA. Boston is clearly the better team here, with the much better starter and they have the added motivation of being blown out last night, so I look for them to return the favor today.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Boston/Oakland over 8.5: The Over Machine known as the the Oakland A's rolls on. The Over is 34-12-5 in their last 51 games overall and 25-4-4 in their last 33 games on grass, plus 16-3-2 in their last 21 road games. For the Sox the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games at home vs a team wityh a road winning pct of less than .400, plus the Over is now 10-0-1 in the last 11 meetings between these teams in Boston. After getting blown out last night by 10 runs you might actually see this Boston team get the Over on their own. Boston comes in averaging 5.86 rpg and hitting .276 in their last 10 games. They also score 5.56 rpg and hit .293 at home. The A'zs offense is back on track as they have averaged 5.7 r5pg and have hit .267 over their last 10 games, plus in 4 games played here this year they have put up 8 rpg. They have scored just 3.92 rpg on the road this year, but in their last 17 away from home they have averaged 6.11 rpg. Neither pitcher has given up much of late, but I see the offenses (especially Boston's) taking control of this game and giving us 10+ runs.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Chicago -102 over SEATTLE: The Sox are still in the playoff race (barely), so I expect them to be fully focused in this one as they know they can't absorb too many losses the rest of the way and still expect to make the playoffs. John Danks gets the ball for the Sox today and he has has been solid of late, going 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has struggled on the road overall this year, but in his last 3 away starts he has gone 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA. John has also pitched well vs Seattle, as he is n5-4 with a 3.09 ERA in 10 career starts vs them, while in 5 starts at Safeco he is 2-2 with a very nice 2.29 ERA The Mariners are a team that struggles to score tuns at home as they have averaged just 3.26 rpg at Safco and they have hit lefties at just .236 at home as well. The Sox offense does score 4.14 rpg ion the road and in their last 10 games they have averaged 4.2 rpg. Ok not great numbers, but they will be taking on a struggling Michael Pineda, who is 1-2 with an ERA of 7.94 in his last 7 starts. He has pitched well at home this year, but in his last 3 home starts he is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA. The Sox still have something to play for and behind Danks they will make sure they don't fall any further behind in the AL Central race. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Chicago White Sox are 17-3 since June of 2009 as a dog when they won by 1 run in their starters last start and that starter had a WHIP of at least 0.75 in that start.

2 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati/ Washington Under 9: Ross Detwiler has been solid in his last 5 starts for the Nats this year with a solid 2.63 ERA. Overall this Nationals staff has done well of late with a 2.79 ERA in their last 10 games and they should be able to hold down a Reds offense that has put up 4.6 rpg in their last 10 games. Mike Leake does not come in in great form, with a 5.12 Era in his last 3 starts, but in his last 3 at home he has a 2.25 ERA and in 3 career starts vs the Nats he has a 3.00 ERA. Mike will be facing a Nats offense that comes in averaging just .247 and scoring just 2.7 rpg in their last 10 games. I think that the pitching in this one will keep the score down, plus we note that the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Steve Janus

Cincinnati Reds -147

The Reds come into Saturday's game off back-to-back wins and have won 4 of their last 5 overall. The Nationals on the other hand have lost four straight overall, and are a miserable 25-40 on the road this season.

The Reds will take on lefty Ross Detwiler, who is a respectable 2-3 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts this season. The problem for Detwiler is he is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in two road starts. Those road struggles don't figure to go away against the Reds offense, who have absolutely crushed left-handed pitching this season. Cincinnati is hitting .279 while averaging 5.6 runs against lefties.

The Reds will start Mike Leake, who figures to be better than his 4.08 ERA on the season. In his last home start, Leake allowed just 2 ER in 7.3 innings of work. He is also 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in three career starts against the Nationals.

Cincinnati is 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite, 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 5-2 in Leakes last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE REDS!

Scott Rickenbach

Chargers @ Cardinals
PICK: Under 41

The Cardinals defense needs to bounce back here. Arizona blew a 6-0 lead by giving up two touchdowns before the half in their game last week. Then, after taking a 20-14 lead in the 3rd quarter, the Cards defense collapsed again in the 4th quarter and blew the game in a 28-20 final. Arizona is 5-2 to the under in the last three years of preseason action where their game has a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points. For San Diego, within those same parameters, the Chargers are a perfect 6-0 to the under the last three years! After allowing just 7 points last week, it will not surprise when the San Diego defense "comes to play" on the road again this week!

David Banks

Patriots / Lions Over

A pair of undefeated teams are all set to go under the CBS National spotlight on Saturday night when Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots invade the Motor City to lock horns with the upstart Detroit Lions; kick-off from Ford Field is scheduled for 8:00 ET.

Has there been a more impressive team in the preseason than the defending AFC East champion New England Patriots? Without QB Tom Brady even taking a snap in their Week 1 opener, the Pats made a mockery of their contest with Jacksonville racking up a total of 476 yards en route to smashing the Jaguars 47-12. Then last week, Brady got his first live game action in and led New England to a pair of scoring drives; he finished up throwing for 118 yards and two TD passes. Former LSU standout Stevan Ridley has shined thus far rumbling for 148 yards and three tuddies the L/2 weeks.

Not to be outdone by tonight’s opponent, the Lions have lit the scoreboard up en route to covering their first two games of the exhibition season. Quite like New England did in Week 1, Detroit simply took advantage of a Cincinnati outfit with numerous holes en route to blowing the Bengals out 34-3. They then followed it up with an impressive come from behind 30-28 outright road win and cover as 2.5-point dogs at Cleveland last week. Matthew Stafford has completed 71 percent of his passes for 156 yards and three TDs thus far, with backups Drew Stanton, Shaun Hill and Zac Robinson all taking care of business when getting their reps in.

Patriots HC Bill Belichick enters Saturday night’s tussle having won 56.7 percent of his preseason games coached and covered the spread at a 35-26-6 ATS clip. New England is 4-1 SU but just 2-2-1 ATS its L/5 preseason road battles. Detroit is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in preseason home games played under the HC Jim Schwartz regime. Overall, the Lions are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS under his watch in the exhibition season, as well as a perfect 2-0 SU & against the closing number in the preseason versus AFC East opposition.

Jack Jones

Tampa Bay Rays -120

Evan Longoria is doing his best to try to keep the Tampa Bay Rays' faint playoff hopes alive. The team's starting pitchers are also doing their part with an impressive streak. Tampa Bay right-hander Jeff Niemann will try to help his team accomplish a feat that hasn't happened in the majors in 17 years when he faces the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday.

Tampa Bay's starters have been steady over the past two weeks, posting a 2.46 ERA while pitching at least seven innings in 11 consecutive games. The last team in the majors to have at least 12 such performances in a row was the 1994 Los Angeles Dodgers with 16 straight.

Niemann is 7-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 11 starts since returning from the DL. Longoria homered twice off Henderson Alvarez in a 6-1 win at Rogers Centre on Friday, giving him six in the last nine games. Niemann has been at his best on the road this season, going 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in eight starts.

The Rays are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Tampa is 7-0 in Niemann's last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. Tampa is 18-4 in Niemann's last 22 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Rays Saturday.