SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay –1 +110 over TORONTO
If you don’t have the option of laying one run you can comfortably lay 15 cents in this one with TB. The Rays took the opener last night 6-1 and have now won 12 of its past 16 games. They catch a completely different looking Jays team than the one we saw about a month ago when Toronto was playing some exciting baseball and winning games. Colby Rasmus is on the 15-day DL. Adam Lind has been seeing BB’s for a month and his average is now down to .250. Both Aaron Hill and John MacDonald were traded and Rajai Davis is also out. The Jays now have a line-up that features Mike McCoy, Kelly Johnson, Eric Thames, Brett Lawrie and J.P. Arencibia among others. It’s rookies and while one or two in a line-up is exciting, this current Blue Jays line-up is a wealth of inexperience and you can add today’s pitcher Luis Perez to that list. Perez has made 30 appearances this season and just one start and it was a good one in Oakland that Toronto won 1-0. He has been a groundball machine so far in the majors, which tracks with his minor league scouting report, which said his "87-92 mph sinking fastball induces an inordinately high number of grounders." However, his lefty-righty splits have been extreme: he has held LHB to a .228 BA while RHB have hit .308 against him and that plays into the Rays strength, as Tampa Bay is loaded with righties and have won 24 of 38 games v southpaws. Jeff Niemann struggled with a back issue early in the season. Now healthy, Niemann had a great July and an even better August. Over his last five starts covering 38 innings, Niemann has struck out 36 while walking 10. He’s also posted a 2.61 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His groundball % is rising (53% over the past two months) and if you dismissed him early in the season, now's the time to take another look. The Jays offense has been simply awful for all of August and things don’t figure to get better here. Play: Tampa Bay –1 +110 (Risking 2 units).
DENVER –5 over Seattle
Kyle Orton and the Broncos offense will play into the third quarter in this one and so will Tavares Jackson and the Seahawks offense. That’s a good thing for Broncs bettors because Orton has been sharp with the first unit, scoring on four of nine possessions and hitting 63% of his passes. The Seattle starters have yet to score, getting shut out in San Diego in two times on the field, then getting shut out in the first half against the Vikings last Saturday night. In fact, the Seahawks offense is a complete mess. They have a weak offensive line that can’t protect Jackson and Jackson with protection isn’t very good. Without it, he has no shot. The third week of preseason is the closest thing to the real thing that we see until the season begins and this edition of the Seachickens is troubling. They have no passing game, no protection and a weak defense. In years past they could count on Matt Hasselbeck to keep them competitive. Tavares Jackson is a huge step down in class. For the Broncs, this is a team with a new attitude under John Fox. They want to play defense and they want to establish the run. They’re getting sharper with each passing preseason quarter and Fox will really try to instill some strong confidence in them with one final “dress rehearsal” and they couldn’t have handpicked a better team to get “sharper” against. The Broncos are confident already and it can only get better here. Play: Denver –5 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
CALGARY –1 over Montreal
The Als have had the easiest schedule in the league by a wide margin with games against all the dregs, not once but twice. They’ve played SASK twice, the Argos twice, B.C., Hamilton and two weeks ago they played a depleted and reeling Eskies club. Despite that they still have two losses and the only team they’ve played with a .500 record is the TiCats, which they lost to. The Als are simply not as strong as advertised with a defense that can get shredded and the Stamps are more than capable of ripping them apart. The Stamps have won three in a row and five of six. They’re scoring at will with 99 points over their past three games. The scary thing is the Calgary hasn’t even hit their stride yet, especially at home and this is a game that it could all come together. Montreal is dangerous on offense and will likely score some points. That’s not the problem with them. Their problem is keeping Calgary from scoring and thus far the Als have not proven that they can stop anyone and this is by far their toughest assignment to date. Underlay. Play: Calgary –1 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
BIG AL
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Chicago White Sox
After a red-hot first half that had him smack in the middle of the American League Rookie of the Year race, Seattle righthander Michael Pineda has regressed significantly since right before the All-Star break and he is now 1-2 in his seven starts since then and he's seen his ERA go from 2.58 to its current mark of 3.73. To see a rookie struggle when the innings on his young arm begin to inflate in his first Major League season is fairly common, so there's nothing particularly alarming about what Pineda is going through right now, but with the Mariners not going anywhere this season, they would be smart to monitor his workload carefully as this guy is potentially a franchise player in the same category as King Felix Hernandez. Chicago lefthander John Danks will get his 22nd start and despite another season with an ERA under four runs (3.88), Danks has only managed a 5-9 record and the main reason for that is the awful performance of his team in the beginning of the season. This year was over for the Sox almost before it began as Chicago was 11-22 in their first 33 games and Danks was 0-8 by the end of May. But if you look at what this team has done in Danks' starts since then, it's quite amazing as they are 8-2 in Dank's 10 starts since the beginning of June. Heading into this game, the White Sox are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings. Take Chicago.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
New England/ Detroit over 45: Kind of a high OU number for a preseason game but I'll bite. The Patriot offense is in mid-season form as they have averaged 39 ppg in their 2 games so far. And that was with Brady playing in very limited time, but tonight he will be in for at least the first half and then after he leaves we have two hot backups coming in in Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet. Those two will take the 2nd half and be up against Detroit's second and 3rd team defenses. The Detroit offense has been stellar this year so far as they have averaged 32 ppg in their 1st 2 games. Stafford has got this unit clicking and with him in there for a half you can expect plenty of points from them. The backups for both these teams have the ability to put points on the board and will be doing so vs 2nd and 3rd team defenses so look for plenty of second half points as well. I really see this game hitting 50+ points.
Chicago/ Tennessee Under 37: Neither offense has been scoring much this year as the Titans have averaged just 15 ppg so far, while the Bears have put up just 11.5 ppg thus far. I think that the new kickoff rules will hurt the scoring for the Bears as their return game would often give them shorter fields to work with, but now they will have to start most of their drives around the 20 and this is not an offense that is equipped to go 80 yards too often. The defense for Chicago has allowed 22 ppg so far, but just 285 ypg and they should be able to control a Titan's offense that is struggling so far. Hasselbeck is still learning the playbook and Locker is a rookie and it has showed as they have put up just 15 ppg and 171 ypg through the air so far. The titan defense has been solid so far as they have allowed just 10 ppg and 265 ypg so far. There is just too much defense in this one to think that these teams can score 38 points. I see low 30's at most.
2 UNIT PLAY
DENVER -5 over Seattle: The Broncos are a team that may not be as bad as one might have thought earlier on, especially since they have retained the services of Kyle Orton. Tim Tebow is just not the answer for them, as he isn't even 2nd string right now. The Denver offense has put up 23.5 ppg and 251 yards passing per game so far in their 2 preseason games. Their defense has also been solid, allowing just 329 ypg thus far. Seattle has gone 1-1 in NFLX so far and they played very well in their opener vs San Diego, but last week they really showed their true colors by losing at home to the Vikings 20-7. This offense will struggle this year under the direction of Tavaris Jackson and it will struggle tonight vs this tough and improved Denver defense. Denver really wants to put on a good show for the home crowd as they build momentum for the regular season, so I look for them to win by 7+ here. KEY TREND--- Denver is 22-9 ATS in the preseason vs the NFC West.
Joe Gavazzi
LA Dodgers +118
The Rockies momentum was broken with a 6-1 loss on this field in the series opener. It continued the LA momentum to 4-0, a run in which they have out scored the opposition 30-8. Since returning to the Majors Millwood has posted a mediocre 4.50 ERA in 20 IP. Billingsley continues his home road dichotomy this season. On the road he has a 5.10 ERA. But at home, in 76 IP he has a 2.95 ERA. Play the momentum of the Dodgers with their hot home starter.
Michael Alexander
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE is 19-9 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season
SEATTLE is 12-4 (+10.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 this season
CHI WHITE SOX are 36-49 (-17.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -149
Washington has lost 4 in a row, and it's recent struggles should continues on the road where it is just 25-40 this season. The Reds, meanwhile, have won 4 of their last 5 overall and 5 of their last 6 at home where they have been solid all season. The Nats can't have much confidence in Detwiler in this spot. He's 0-2 on the road with a 4.50 ERA this season. He's also 0-2 lifetime against Cincinnati. It's also worth noting that the Nationals are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds look to be in better hands with Leake, who's 7-4 (8-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 4.16 this season. The Reds are 9-4 in his last 13 starts as a home favorite and 6-0 in Leakes last 6 Saturday starts. We'll bet the Reds.
Harry Bondi
TAMPA BAY -3.5 over Miami
The Dolphins are off to a 2-0 start and will come into this game with "a little shit in their necks" as they have been reading and hearing about how good they have looked in the early going of the preseason. That's exactly the type of team you want to "go against" in the preseason, especially with a team that's as marginal as Miami. Tampa Bay ran into a buzz-saw last week and got embarrassed in front on the home crowd when it got manhandled by a New England team that was clicking on all cylinders. Look for the Bucs to try and make amends for that loss tonight at home as QB Josh Freeman welcomes back two of his best weapons -- Arrelious Benn and Kellen Winslow -- both of whom sat out the first two preseason games. The defense also welcomes back starting cornerback Aqib Talib. Lay the short number with the Bucs.
Triple Threat Sports
Chicago White Sox
Danks has won three starts in a row and has posted a strong 18-4 K/W ratio in those three games. For their part Seattle is 8-22 this season in games started by southpaws, while Pale Hose have had some success (62%) as away chalk of this range.
Black Widow
1* on Colorado Rockies +130
Excellent value here with the Colorado Rockies Saturday as a road underdog to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Colorado has played well of late, winning five of their last six games overall. Kevin Millwood has also pitched well since getting called up, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in three starts. His last start came against these same Dodgers, where he allowed three earned runs in seven innings to get the win in a 5-3 victory. Chad Billingsley is 3-7 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.629 WHIP in 13 lifetime starts versus Colorado. He has allowed 10 earned runs, 3 home runs, and 22 base runners in 12 1/3 innings over his last two starts against the Rockies. Millwood is 6-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts versus Los Angeles. Take the Rockies on the Money Line.
Doug Upstone
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has not looked all that great in the preseason and has a chance to redeem itself on Saturday night in Pittsburgh. Road teams like the Falcons after allowing three points or less in the first half of last game, against opponent after a win by 10 or more points, are 33-10 ATS the last 18 years.
Vegas Experts
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is a -160 favorite at home against Kansas City tonight but there is still tons of value in this play. The Indians opened up the series last night with a close 2-1 win and will keep it going tonight. Kansas City is only 12-32 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 while Cleveland is 19-6 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Cleveland is 9-4 against Kansas City so far this season and 5-2 when playing them at home. Watch as Kansas City suffers a huge loss this evening.
Play on: Cleveland Indians
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +1.5 -130
The Cubs are showing value catching 1.5 runs at this price when you consider how good Dempster has been against the Brewers throughout his career. Dempster is 15-3 (17-7 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.84 in 24 career starts against Milwaukee. He is 12-4 on the ML in his last 16 starts against Milwaukee. We'll take the Cubs.
Don Wallace
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Dallas Cowboys -1
Cowboys head man Jason Garrett will be looking for a much sharper performance out of his team's offense after the Cowboys committed three turnovers against San Diego, with the Chargers converting those miscues into 10 points.Quarterback Tony Romo hit on 8-of-12 attempts in about 1 1/2 quarters worth of work for Dallas, but managed only 58 yards and was intercepted once. One bright spot for the Cowboys was the performance of Felix Jones, with the talented running back rushing for 56 yards on only seven carries. He may be backed up on Saturday by veteran Tashard Choice and rookie third-round pick DeMarco Murray, both of whom have yet to play this preseason due to injuries but resumed practicing this week. The all-time preseason series between the Cowboys and Vikings is deadlocked at 5-5-1, with Dallas drawing even by virtue of a 35-31 decision at the Metrodome in 2009.
The teams have met twice since, the 2009 NFC Divisional Playoff ,were Minnesota rolled to a 34-3 victory.The Vikings also bested Dallas by a 24-21 score at home during Week 6 of last year's regular season. Saturday's tilt will be the first game held at the Metrodome since the facility's roof collapsed during a massive snow storm last December, forcing the Vikings to play their final two home games of the 2010 season in alternative venues. This not quite a play for me. However, I do look for the Cowboys to execute and put together a strong performance.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Diego Padres +134
I like the Padres in the underdog role with Harang on the hill. He's 12-3 with an ERA of 4.02 on the season and 6-0 on the road. Arizona's Saunders is just 2-5 at home and has been struggling. He's 0-2 with an ERA of 7.00 over his last 3 starts. We'll take San Diego.
O.C. Dooley
Texans / 49ers Over 37
One could argue this total should be substantially higher since the high-octane Houston offense is involved. There is a chance that the NFL’s lead rusher from a year ago Arian Foster will see his first preseason action after nursing a hamstring injury for several weeks. While Foster and Steve Slaton form an already lethal backfield. Ben Tate is finally starting to perform coming off a 9-carry 95 yard effort that included a touchdown. Going into the 2010 preseason Tate was supposed to battling to be a starting running back when he went down with a season-ending broken ankle. What Tate brings to the Texans is another strong and powerful rusher who can make big cuts. Houston’s top notch passing game featuring quarterback Matt Schaub to wideout Andre Johnson will get plenty of work, but the big news is the reserve signal caller Matt Leinhart who can light up the scoreboard in the latter stages of tonight’s matchup. It was though that Leinhart would join his college coach Pete Carroll in Seattle during the offseason, but when the Seahawks opted for Tarvaris Jackson, the Texans swooped in and re-signed Leinhart to a guaranteed $3.75 million dollar deal. To make a long story short Leinhart learned a lot from Houston head coach Gary Kubiak a year ago and had a very strong training camp. Tonight’s total has been kept in check since San Francisco’s attack has not exactly been lighting up the preseason scoreboard. But new 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh actually studied the franchise’s famous West Coast offense during the lockout. Of course that offense was designed by the late Bill Walsh who turned Joe Montana into a legend. What Harbaugh is looking for is MOBILITY with his quarterbacks and he does have that with starter Alex Smith who was a prolific runner in his collegiate days at Utah. In the draft San Francisco “traded up” for Colin Kaepernick who ran for more than 4,000 yards while at Nevada. Former NFL offensive wizard Dennis Green is now a head coach in the UFL and one of his 2010 quarterbacks Josh McCown has been signed as a #3 option. McCown who led the UFL in passer rating still has mobility even at an advanced age. In the history of the Houston Texans franchise they are a whopping 12-2 OVER the total when facing a “non” conference opponent in a preseason clash and that is the case tonight