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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 28,2010

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Marc Lawrence
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Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays and Tigers meet in Game Three of this four-game series Saturday afternoon when Brandon Morrow meets Jeremy Bonderman in Toronto. Morrow enters in fine KW form with seven walks and 31 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 6-1 i his last seven team starts. Meanwhile, Bonderman checks in 1-3 with a 7.61 ERA in his last four starts, and just 4-10 in his last 14 team starts during the month of August. With that, look for the Blue Jays to improve to 6-1 at home against Bonderman in his career starts in this park here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:00 am
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Rob Vinciletti
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Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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The Giants fit a solid system tonight that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored loss at -140 or higher if they had 5 or more hits and their opponent is off a +140 or higher road dog win and the total tonight is 8 or less. The Giants are off 2 rare home losses in a row, while Arizona is on a rare road win streak. Things should get back to normal here tonight as the Giants have B. Zito on the mound. Zito is 9-4 at home with a 2.76 era, he opposes D. Hudson who has been decent thus far, as he makes his first start here. SF. is 7-3 here and has a huge home to road bullpen era edge. Look for the Giants to improve to 14-4 vs losing teams in the second half. Take the Giants tonight.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:00 am
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Scott Spreitzer
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Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers
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Rich Harden did not fare well in his last start against his former team. Harden lasted just 2 1/3 innings in an August 7 start, allowing three earned runs in a 6-2 loss. But Harden wasn't "right" in that outing. He not only left the game early, but ended up on the DL with shoulder tendinitis. Harden returned on August 23 and threw 6 2/3 innings of no-hit baseball, leading his team to a 4-0 win over Minnesota. In fact, in his last two starts since returning to health, including one at Triple-A OKC, Harden has allowed just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings. The Rangers are 5-1 in his last six home starts, and Harden has allowed just 12 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings for a 3.34 ERA. I expect Harden to get plenty of support at the plate. Texas is averaging 5.4 rpg in home games this season, including 5.1 rpg in home night games against southpaws. They'll face lefty Dallas Braden tonight. I'm laying the price with Texas on Saturday.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:06 am
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Jim Feist
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Take: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Arizona has been showing some life in August, despite being out of any pennant race. Starter Daniel Hudson has been very good, with a 4-2 record and a 3.10 ERA. He's a terrific strikeout pitcher, with 50 Ks in 52 innings and the Giants have never faced him. The Diamondbacks have been a .500 team in August despite being underdogs most of the time. Lefty Barry Zito has been struggling, with an 0-2 record and a 7.80 ERA his last three starts. He is also 3-6 all time against Arizona. Play the Diamondbacks.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:07 am
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Kyle Hunter
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Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Play: Over 7½
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Barry Zito has been struggling of late, and the Arizona Diamondbacks have always given him trouble. The over is 3-0-1 in Zito's last four starts against Arizona. The over is 4-1 in the Diamondbacks last 5 road games. Daniel Hudson has been amazing for Arizona, but I think he is due for an off start. The Giants bats have been heating up in a big way over the last week or two. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last four home games. The wind is expected to be blowing straight out at 15 mph or more during the game. Given that both teams are hitting well, I think the over is a great value at 7.5 here.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:08 am
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Bryan Leonard

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Kansas City Royals
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The Royals continue their last place battle with the Indians knowing they have taken 5 of the last 6 meetings. The Pathetic Cleveland offense has scored eight combined runs in their last six games heading into Friday night action. Zack Greinke has faced the Tribe ten times in his career and he has never allowed more than three earned runs in any game. The Royals have beaten the Indians 6 of 8 games with Greinke on the hill. The youngster is also in terrific current form having permitted just 4 earned runs in his last 22 innings.
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Jeanmar Gomez get's the start for the host and he has been quite impressive thus far. In his first four starts in the majors he was virtually untouchable. But in his last start against the Tigers Detroit lit him up for 7 earned runs in 3 innings of work. That was the second time Detroit faced the youngster and Saturday marks the second time the Royals have seen him in 12 days.
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Unlike Greinke who was a highly touted pitcher coming up the Indians really didn't promote Gomez for anything other than eating innings. They have had terrible starting pitching all season and he was a fresh arm. The Royals took 2 of 3 last week in Kansas City and they grab another victory here.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:08 am
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Great Lakes Sports
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New York Giants at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore Ravens
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The Baltimore Ravens are a perfect 2-0 ATS overall this year, and the Baltimore Ravens is an outstanding 3-0 ATS where the total is between 35.5 to 38 points last three years. The New York Giants are a terrible 0-3 ATS when playing on Saturday's the last three years, and the New York Giants are a dismal 1-4 ATS when playing with six or less days rest. We look for the Baltimore Ravens to roll over the New York Giants and grab the home ATS Win & Cover tonight.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:11 am
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EZWINNERS
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Los Angeles Angels -161
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Baltimore starting pitcher Kevin Millwood is having a horrible season for the Orioles. The 14 losses that he already has ties a career high for Millwood, who was 10-14 for the Texas Rangers back in 2007. Millwood gets very little help from the Baltimore bats in the way of run support, but in his starts Millwood has allowed runs to score in the first inning in a large majority of his outings putting himself in the hole right from the start. Millwood has also given up twenty six homeruns which is an alarming number. Scott Kazmir has an 8.56 ERA for the Angels over his last eight starts, but Kazmir has showed signs of breaking out of his slump and I look for a solid effort from him in this game. The Orioles are only 21-47 in their last sixty eight games against a left handed starter and Baltimore is only 8-22 in their last thirty games at Anaheim. Play on the Angels.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:12 am
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Cincinnati Kid
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CIN -3 vs BUF
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Bengals and Bills collide on the pre-season gridiron this evening...Buffalo off the north-of-the-border win last week in Canada facing Cincy entering off BB SU wins...Bengals qualify as a Playoff Virgin (clubs who made the playoffs the previous year and were spectators the year prior) and these clubs are an astounding 16-2 ATS vs. clubs off a DD SU win during the 2000 decade...in this role the Fav is 9-1 and the Dog is 7-1...and when facing a .500 or better club the tally is 11-1 ATS. Playoff Virgins are 9-2 ATS when playing off BB home games and they are 4-1 off a SU win playing into DBL revenge...home teams are 28-50 ATS facing clubs off BB SU wins...in Week 3 they are 9-24 ATS in the same roll including 0-7 ATS L7 games...

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:13 am
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Gill Alexander

SFX +1 vs OAK
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This one's pretty straightforward for me. It's the Battle of the Bay, which means nothing to the rest of the country but actually means a peculiar and frightening amount to Bay Area fans who back their respective teams in this local rivalry with extra gusto. Will that translate to anything on the field? Perhaps it will give the Raiders a surge very early on, but over the course of the game, no.
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The Niners have much more talent than the Raiders do, and while the Oakland brass will be very interested to see how Bruce Gradkowski performs in his first game since tearing ligaments in both knees last season, and tearing his pectoral muscles and straining his groin in between, the real battles that will produce inspired play will take place on the Niners side of the ball. QB Alex Smith will be motivated to play well to quell the tacit tidal wave of support that is forming for both David Carr and Nate Davis, Taylor Mays, Reggie Smith, and Michael Lewis are going at it in a spirited competition at strong safety, and Isaac Sopoaga and Ray McDonald are vying for time at defensive end. And look for Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook to see their first action for the 49ers this preseason, as well.
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I have no inside knowledge on this, but I believe Mike Singletary is trying to win every single one of these preseason games as a means of keeping a losing feeling as far away from his team as possible as the Niners enter the season as favorites to win the NFC West. And more than anything, I simply don't believe that Singletary will let Tom Cable, his football inferior, from getting the best of him in this regional tussle.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:14 am
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Jack Clayton

Game: 49ers at Raiders
Pick: 49ers

You might call this a home game for both teams. I like the San Fran quarterback rotation of Alex Smith and David Carr. Carr was an excellent addition, and the starters are going to see the most action yet. Coach Singletary is 5-1 in preseason and the 49ers have the better talent, balance and coaching. Play the 49ers.

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:19 am
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Scott Delaney

First Eli Manning got blasted in the forehead during the annual Giants-Jets game, which this season took place in Week 1 of the exhibition campaign, rather than this week; then he sat out so the stitches could heal better, and the wound wouldn't get irritated with a helmet on.

Now he's taking the field in what is supposed to be dress rehearsal, but against one of the most aggressive defenses in the league.

And quite frankly, I don't believe the Giants have had enough continuity this preseason, and will be ready this week with their starting rotation, which normally is supposed to play about three quarters.

I know Manning is a Super Bowl MVP and veteran in this league, but he still needs his reps, and he simply hasn't gotten them so far. Not like he should have.

And then you have backup Jim Sorgi, who is sidelined due to a shoulder injury, and he's still listed as out. That means third- stringer Rhett Bomar will
take the bulk of the second- half snaps.

Additional injuries leave me convinced this team isn't ready to tangle with a Ravens defense that has allowed a mere 7.5 points per game in the preseason.

Love the Ravens here.

2♦ BALTIMORE

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:22 am
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Stephen Nover

I cashed my last free preseason selection taking the underdog Oakland Raiders last week against the Chicago Bears. Tonight I'm backing another underdog - the New York Giants against Baltimore.

The Ravens actually opened a touchdown favorite against the Giants. But with word out that Eli Manning would play the line has dropped down to Baltimore minus 4. Anything above a field goal still is decent value with the Giants.

The Giants are treating this game as their dress rehersal. Manning suffered a 3-inch cut on his left side of his forehead two weeks ago against the Jets. But he practiced this week after missing last week's game and is ready to go. Manning has been fitted with a special helmet and should play at least the first half.

The Ravens are overrated right now. They are averaging 20 points in their two preseson games. Their offense has yet to really click. They have offensive line injuries and their defensive backfield is extremely vulnerable due to injuries. Manning and his host of underrated wide receivers can take advantage.

Rhett Bomar probably will play the rest of the game when Manning departs. He's not a great quarterback by any means. But he did get valuable game experience last week playing the entire game against a tough Steelers defense with Manning and backup Jim Sorgi both out.

Bomar was a respectable 13-for-26 for 167 yards against Pittsburgh. He should be able to keep the Giants within the spread when the reserves finish the contest.

4♦ N.Y. GIANTS

I am now on a 61-40-2 run with my baseball free picks, after my hot streak continued last night with the underdog Orioles beating the Angels. Tonight I'm going to lay the favored Yankees on the road against the Chicago White Sox.

Only four times all season have the Yankees lost three games in a row. Don't look for it to happen a fifth time. The proud Yankees will be in a bounce back mode after being embarrassed by the White Sox last night.

The price is fair enough to back CC Sabathia, the American League leader in wins and winning percentage. Sabathia hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a game since May 29. He is 15-4 lifetime against the White Sox.

White Sox starter John Danks has been good, but he's not in Sabathia's elite level. Danks has allowed at least five earned runs during three of his past 10 starts. He has just one win this month. Danks has a 5.48 career ERA versus New York.

The White Sox bullpen is extremely vulnerable. Bobby Jenks has worked once in the last seven days and Matt Thornton, who leads AL relievers in strikeouts, and J.J. Putz both are on the DL.

There's a huge class difference between these two teams. The Yankees' powerful AL East Division is 44 games above .500 versus non-division foes. The White Sox's AL Central Division is 14 games under .500 against non-division opponents. The Yankees are 45-18 in their last 63 games versus AL Central foes.

Since July 4, the White Sox have played only 11 games against teams with a winning record going 4-7. Class will prevail here. That means Sabathia and the Yankees.

2♦ N.Y. YANKEES

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:22 am
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Karl Garrett

G-Man with a Friday comp play winner on the Phillies +125.

For Saturday night in the NFL look for the Seattle Seahawks to stay inside of the generous impost at Minnesota.

The Vikings have a boatload of issues they are working through right now, as Brett Favre has played just one series thus far this preseason, and his favorite targets of Rice and Harvin are both sidelined.

This is Minnesota's home opener this preseason, and you have a case of an "inlfated" line being thrown out there by the linemakers.

Seattle has gotten some positive reps in this preseason for both Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst, and they do own a phenomenal 20-7 spread mark on week three of the preseason their last 27.

A closer look shows the Seahawks at 6-1 the last 7 years when playing game three in the month of August.

Minnesota did clobber Seattle during the regular season last year at the Metrodome, so look for Seattle to save a little face in this preseason affair.

G-Man grabbing the points as Seattle keeps it close.

1♦ SEATTLE

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:22 am
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Scott Delaney

The Cardinals couldn't have picked a better weekend to visit our nation's capital as the they desperately need to get out of this funk they've been in to maintain their pace in the National League Central.

And I'm of the belief that yesterday's devastating news about Stephen Strasburg was enough of a blow to the Nationals; the entire franchise was deflated with word that their ace is going to be on the shelf for quite possibly the next year and a half.

St. Louis had lost 3 in a row and 8 of 11 prior to prevailing 4-2 on Friday night. The Cards have won 14 of the last 17 in the series while the Nats have dropped 14 of their last 18 overall, including five of six.

I want you to list both Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez in this one, as I feel I'm getting an incredible price at +100 with Lohse.

I know he has a 7.85 road ERA, but he's won his last three starts against the Nationals, including a win back in May. He's given up just two earned runs in those games, for an ERA of 1.00.

As for Hernandez, he comes in after laboring through 4 1/3 frames in a loss against the Cubs, allowing seven runs on 10 hits. And get this: the right-hander needed 121 pitches just to get that far! He's 0-2 in his last three starts, having given up 12 earned runs along the way.

I suspect Hernandez could be in trouble against Albert Pujols, who has raked the past two nights. He belted his 400th home run on Thursday, and then blasted No. 401 last night, his 35th of the season and fifth in seven career games at National Park.

Take the Cardinals tonight; they're a steal.

3♦ CARDINALS

 
Posted : August 28, 2010 7:23 am
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