BRETT ATKINS
I scored a comp winner on Friday night when the Phillies took down the Padres in extra innings in San Diego, improving my free record to 9-2 with my last 11 freebies. Tonight, I'm on the gridiron for a comp winner on the Titans as they are in Carolina to take on the Panthers.
The Titans have looked superb so far this preseason. And to think about it a bit, they won 8 of their last 10 last season and QB Vince Young is seemingly very comfortable in the pocket and buying some more time to find open receivers.
Tennessee has a stable of big strong RBs, led by Chris Johnson and with Javon Ringer and LeGarrette Blount following up. Young has looked good and we’ll see him into the third quarter here as starters will get a few series after the halftime rest to see how the bodies react to having to get back to work.
If the Titans starters are out there that long, they will be up by 14 points by the time the third quarter rolls around. Carolina has been ugly this preseason, with the offense unable to score a touchdown through the first two games. QB play has been horrendous and I don’t see it getting that much better in a week.
Let’s go and grab the points with the Titans tonight.
4♦ TENNESSEE
Bobby Maxwell
I just delivered a FREE winner on the gridiron on Friday night when the Saints scored a win and cover over the Chargers in New Orleans. Tonight, I'll hand you another NFL comp winner as I go with the Jaguars on the road in Tampa Bay.
Admittedly, Jacksonville has not looked good this preseason, playing poorly on both sides of the ball. But don’t you know coach Jack Del Rio has been all over these guys for their effort the last week and they will come out tonight against the Bucs and make some things happen?
QB David Garrard has been criticized heavily this exhibition season as backup Luke McCown has looked just as good as the starter, if not better. And the running game has been non-existent so far, managing just 68 total yards in two games, against the Eagles and Dolphins. Some injuries on the O-line are partly to blame for the low number, but that should improve tonight with the return of tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton.
And expect Del Rio to put an emphasis on the running game against Tampa Bay tonight as he is a “run first” kind of coach. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is healthy for this one and should get between 5 and 8 carries and backup Rashad Jennings will get a nice long look in this one.
The Jags have made some moves to try and strengthen their defense with Rod Wilson coming in with his 36 NFL games under his belt with the Bears and Bucs.
Tampa has backup QB Josh Johnson playing tonight’s contest with starter Josh Freeman sidelined with his broken thumb. Johnson went 0-4 in his opportunities as a starter last season and completed just 54 percent of his throws. He did complete 6-of-10 passes for 113 yards and a TD against the Chiefs last week but his inconsistency will show up against the hungry Jags defense.
I’ve been a fan of Del Rio’s since he took over the Jacksonville team and think he will get that team straightened out and headed in the right direction this season. They are farther along than the Bucs and they’ll win tonight’s Florida battle by two TDs. Play the Jags.
2♦ JACKSONVILLE
DWAYNE BRYANT
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BOSTON RED SOX +114
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* Buchholz owns a 2.23 ERA in 11 road starts this season (Boston is 9-2)
* Buchholz also owns a 1.79 ERA & 1.08 WHIP in 16 nighttime starts this season (Boston is 13-3)
* Buchholz owns a 1.93 ERA in 6 career starts against the Rays
* Garza owns a 3.95 ERA in 19 nighttime starts this season (Rays are just 10-9)
* Garza owns an 11.25 ERA & 2.38 WHIP in 2 home starts against Boston this season
* The Red Sox are 7-0 in Buchholz's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record
* The Red Sox are 6-0 in Buchholz's last 6 starts as a road underdog
* Over their last 5 games, the Rays are averaging 3.5 runs per game against righties
* Over their last 5 games, Boston is averaging 4.9 runs per game against righties
* Boston's bullpen owns a 0.00 ERA & .098 BAA in their last 5 games
Steve Merril
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Phillies @ Padres
PICK: Over 7.5
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Jon Garland may be the tonic that the struggling Philadelphia offense needs as they play game 2 of their series in San Diego. Garland is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA in five starts against Philadelphia. The righty gave up six runs and 10 hits in seven innings pitched against the Phillies earlier this year. He has given up 17 runs and 26 hits in his last three starts against the Phillies. Raul Ibanez (22-66), Mike Sweeney (17-58), Placido Polanco (16-41), Shane Victorino (4-11), Ryan Howard (3-9), Jayson Werth (3-7), Chase Utley (2-7), and Carlos Ruiz (4-6) all smack Garland around. The Phillies are still averaging 4.6 runs per game despite their recent struggles.
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Joe Blanton's road struggles are well documented. He's 1-4 with a 6.55 ERA in nine starts away from Philadelphia. Blanton's numbers aren’t very good against the Padres either. He's 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts against San Diego. Earlier this season, Blanton gave up five runs and 11 hits in five innings pitched to the light-hitting Padres in Philadelphia. Miguel Tejada (4-14), Adrian Gonzalez (6-13), David Eckstein (3-6), Scott Hairston (3-6), Jerry Hairston Jr. (2-3), and Chase Headley (2-3) all hit Blanton hard. San Diego has scored 5 runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games. They'll face a Philadelphia bullpen that has a losing record and an ERA near 4.35 on the road. We expect a high-scoring game here so we’ll recommend a play on the Over between the Phillies and Padres this afternoon.
Tony George
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Chicago Bears -4
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I like the Bears at home in this one, as Arizona has not shown any offense at all, so much so, that Derek Anderson replaces Matt Leinart at QB today for the Cards, on a short week. Chicago needs a good showing and has all the talent in place to give Minny and Green Bay some tough games this year in this division. Not sold on Arizona on the road with an iffy offense after getting kicked around on Monday Night on a back to back road scenario. Bears tough one out here.
DUNKEL INDEX
Cincinnati at Buffalo
The Bengals look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 preseason games versus conference opponents. Cincinnati is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2)
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Game 263-264: Cleveland at Detroit (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 119.941; Detroit 122.881
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2); Under
Game 265-266: Cincinnati at Buffalo (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 121.751; Buffalo 116.939
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5; 39
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2); Over
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Game 267-268: Jacksonville at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.949; Tampa Bay 121.594
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Over
Game 269-270: NY Giants at Baltimore (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 120.499; Baltimore 128.648
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 8; 33
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 5 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-5 1/2); Under
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Game 271-272: Dallas at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.059; Houston 120.876
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over
Game 273-274: Seattle at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.003; Minnesota 125.804
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+6); Under
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Game 275-276: Tennessee at Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 122.264; Carolina 119.469
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 32
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 35
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Under
Game 277-278: Arizona at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 114.862; Chicago 123.195
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Over
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Game 279-280: San Francisco at Oakland (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 121.037; Oakland 124.291
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-1 1/2); Under
MLB
Minnesota at Seattle
The Mariners look to take advantage of Minnesota's 3-13 record in Nick Blackburn's last 16 starts against the AL West. Seattle is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110)
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Game 901-902: Florida at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.068; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.127
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Under
Game 903-904: Philadelphia at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.811; San Diego (Garland) 14.736
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Over
Game 905-906: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 13.494; Washington (Hernandez) 14.655
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Under
Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 15.637; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.765
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+165); Over
Game 909-910: Houston at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 15.187; NY Mets (Santana) 14.622
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+150); Under
Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.536; Milwaukee (Capuano) 14.991
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-165); Over
Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.662; Colorado (Chacin) 15.728
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-135); Under
Game 915-916: Arizona at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Hudson) 15.305; San Francisco (Zito) 14.271
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Over
Game 917-918: Detroit at Toronto (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Figaro) 15.871; Toronto (Morrow) 15.187
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 919-920: Minnesota at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.051; Seattle (Fister) 16.167
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Over
Game 921-922: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 13.633; Cleveland (Gomez) 14.334
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Under
Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.325; White Sox (Danks) 15.029
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-135); Over
Game 925-926: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.853; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.800
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Under
Game 927-928: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.391; Texas (Harden) 15.096
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+125); Over
Game 929-930: Baltimore at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Millwood) 15.853; LA Angels (Kazmir) 14.966
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+155); Over
CFL
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Saskatchewan at Edmonton
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The Roughriders look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games overall. Saskatchewan is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-6)
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Game 293-294: Saskatchewan at Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 115.734; Edmonton 108.367
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 7 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 6; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-6); Over
WNBA
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Seattle at Los Angeles
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The Storm look to take advantage of an LA team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing with 2 days of rest. Seattle is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6 1/2)
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Game 611-612: Phoenix at San Antonio (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 112.296; San Antonio 112.137
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2); Over
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Game 613-614: Seattle at Los Angeles (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 116.462; Los Angeles 118.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 8; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 6 1/2; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6 1/2); Under
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -107
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The Cards ended their 3-game skid Friday, and I look for them to build on that win here tonight. The Nationals are struggling, having lost 5 of their last 6 games, and I expect those struggles to continue with Hernandez on the hill. Hernandez has been strong for most of the season, but he has been running out of gas down the stretch. The Nats have dropped each of his last 4 starts, and he is carrying an ERA of 6.12 over his last 3. It is also worth noting that he is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts against St. Louis. Lohse takes the ball for the Cards, working off a solid outing against Pittsburgh. I expect him to put together another strong performance tonight against a club he has won 5 straight starts against on the money line. The Cardinals are 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in this series. Take St. Louis.
Tom Freese
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Astros vs. NY Mets
Play: Under 6½
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Houston starter Brett Myers has 20 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last 3 starts. The Astros are 6-0 UNDER their last 6 games and they are 19-7-1 UNDER their last 27 games vs. lefty starters. The Astros are 6-0 UNDER with Myers with four days of rest. Houston is 21-8-2 UNDER their last 31 games as underdogs. New York starter Johan Santana has 26 strikeouts and 4 walks in his last 3 starts. The Mets are 7-0 UNDER their last 7 games with Houston. New York is 11-4 UNDER their last 15 games overall and they are 7-1-1 UNDER with Santana as a favorite.
JOHNNY BANKS
New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox
Play: New York Yankees
The Yankees come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4 games but they have their stopper on the mound tonight with C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees are 15-6 in Sabathia's last 21 road starts as a favorite and 16-4 in his last 20 starts when pitching with 5 days rest. The Yankees are 14-2 in Sabathia's last 16 starts overall and Sabathia is 15-4 in his last 19 starts against the White Sox. The White Sox lose this one tonight big and you can bank on it!
Rocketman
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Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay
Play: Jacksonville -2
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Jacksonville is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses since 1993. Jacksonville is 9-1 ATS since 1993 in a road game where the total is 35 1/2 to 38 points. Jacksonville is 20-9 ATS on the road since 1993 including 4-0 ATS on the road the past 3 years. Jacksonville is 0-2 SU this year in the preseason despite putting up 26.5 points per game overall and 27 points per game on the road. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is only scoring 13.5 points per game overall in preseason action. Jacksonville has covered 6 of 8 meetings with Tampa Bay in the NFL preseason. Tampa Bay starting QB Josh Freeman was hurt with a fractured thumb on his throwing hand and will not see anymore preseason action. I feel like Tampa Bay's backups are very poor and this one should be easy for the Jags. Jacksonville has two 1 point losses in the preseason so far and will want to make a good showing here tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Jacksonville tonight!
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -122
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The Royals are a solid investment coming off yesterday's embarrassing loss when you consider that they are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a defeat. Plus, KC has ace Zach Greinke on the bump tonight, and he has been dealing. The Royals have won his last 2 starts, and he is carrying an ERA of only 1.64 over his last 3. Meanwhile, the Indians have lost each of Jeanmar Gomez's last 2 starts, and he is carrying an ERA of 6.00 over his last 3. The fact that KC finds itself in the chalk is significant as it is 7-3 in Greinke's last 10 starts as a favorite. I also love the fact that the Royals are 4-0 in Greinke's last 4 starts vs. the Indians. With the Tribe going winless in their last seven Game 2's of a series, I'm taking the Royals tonight.
Tony Stoffo
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Arizona D-Backs vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Arizona D-Backs
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With Daniel Hudson matching up with Barry Zito here makes for the solid play on the underdog Diamondbacks in this spot. Hudson continues to shine allowing just 5 runs, while striking out 28 in his last 3 starts which has resulted in a 2.14 ERA and 1.095 WHIP. Add in the fact that the Giants have never faced him only will add to the San Francisco woes here tonight. While Zito has just been the opposite for the Giants giving up 13 runs, and 25 hits in just 15 innings pitched producing a 7.80 ERA and 1.933 WHIP. Plus throw in the fact that Zito has not faired well against the Diamondbacks in the past with a 3-6 mark, and you can see how Arizona comes away with the win here this evening.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Oakland +1.38 over TEXASTHESPREAD.COM
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This has been an eventful season for Dallas Braden. His season includes a perfect game, pitching through an early-season ankle injury that often left his status uncertain between scheduled starts, and a mid-season DL stint with elbow tendinitis, which cost him a month. Perhaps most significantly, 2010 may become known as the season in which Braden established himself as a solid starting pitcher. Braden's 62%/14% good start/bad start split indicates that he has become a reliable, consistent starter this season despite the physical obstacles he has faced. The 2010 skill-set here include some clear differences from that of previous seasons. His control has improved from solid to elite, as Braden has lowered his walk rate by more than one-per-nine-innings, a substantial improvement. Braden is inducing more groundballs than in seasons past, with a substantial rise in GB% accompanied by a corresponding drop in FB%. Despite a strong offensive showing last night, the Rangers still struggle vs southpaws. More than that, however, is the tag being offered here against Rich Harden. Harden continued his "Jekyll-and-Hyde" season with 6.2 hitless-shutout innings on Monday. He threw 111 pitches in a five-walk, six-strikeout effort in his return from a shoulder issue-induced DL stint. Harden has struggled between injuries this season, with horrid control contributing to an awful 5.56 xERA. Harden also has a 53% FB rate, a 74% strand rate and over his last three starts that strand rate is 88%. Harden is a high-risk favorite that is not worth the risk. Play: Oakland +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
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Minnesota –1.07 over SEATTLETHESPREAD.COM
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Nick Blackburn has shown very little this season and in most cases he’s been completely torched. He comes into this game with a 2-7 road record and a 9.30 ERA to go along with it. In fact, his ERA on the road is almost three times higher than the home ERA (3.14) of Doug Fister. The difference between these two pitchers, however, is very slight and while Blackburn’s ERA is a result of everything going wrong, Fister’s ERA is a result of everything going right. Fact is, Fister is a soft-tosser with a ton of blowup risk. In four August starts, he’s allowed 31 hits in just 22 IP for a BAA of .333. It’s also worth noting that the Twinkies have seen him twice this year and they scored five runs on him both times so he’s not likely to fool them here either. As for Blackburn, well, he, too, is a soft-tosser with good control. He and Fister could be brothers in that respect, as they come from the same school of pitching. The big difference is not in their skill levels; that’s even. The difference comes in the respective teams they play for and you certainly don’t need this analysis to point those differences out. In a match-up of equally poor starters, with one being no better than the other, take the much-better team and lay under a dime. Play: Minnesota –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
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Arizona +1.38 over SAN FRANCISCOTHESPREAD.COM
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This could be the biggest overlay on the board today. First, the D-Backs continue to tear it up against lefties with one of the top OPS vs southpaws in the league. Arizona is still playing good ball and have been for the better part of the last month. They came in here last night and beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants 6-0 in a matchup that looked a lot less favorable than this one. Barry Zito is still Barry Zito no matter how you break it down. He relies heavily on his experience and some luck and sometimes it works out. Fact is, Zito has an xERA his past three starts of 7.27. His GB rate of 35% is one of the lowest in the majors. If he wins, he’s lucky because he absolutely will allow the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities with his propensity to give up hits and walks. As the season drags on, you can expect Zito’s fluky 3.78 ERA to head south. Over his last four appearances, which include that one inning he pitched in that marathon game against the Reds last week, Zito has surrendered 28 hits in 16 innings. Zito is a stiff, period. Daniel Hudson has been brilliant. Since coming over from the Chicago White Sox on July 30, he’s done nothing but dominate. Hudson held Colorado to four hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out nine Sunday, but didn’t get any help in a 1-0 loss. Hudson has nasty stuff and when you consider that everyone has seen Zito about 1000 times and nobody has seen Hudson, a big edge has to go to the pitcher nobody has seen. Play: Arizona +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
THESPREAD.COM
EDMONTON +6 over SaskatchewanTHESPREAD.COM
THESPREAD.COM
The Eskies have been ripe for the pickings all season long and this one could be no different. Still, laying points on the road in this league has been a bankroll killer all year and it’s for that reason that doing so cannot be recommended. The Esks are down and out but they still have some talented players and the Riders have shown enough flaws this year to warrant going against them. Play: Edmonton +6 (No bets).
SPORTS WAGERS
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Randy Couture (via submission) –1.30 over James ToneyVISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dana White admits that he has entered the world of "Freak Shows" with this fight and he won't get any argument here. Both men are in their 40’s and well past their prime. In all honesty though how can Randy "Captain America" Couture lose this fight? The UFC would not have allowed this fight to happen if they thought that James Toney had any chance of winning. Do you know how embarrassing it would be for MMA if he waltzed in and beat one of the main faces of the sport in the octagon? It would be absolutely devastating. If this were a straight boxing match James Toney would be the lock of all locks but it's not and the transition from boxing to MMA has a much higher degree of difficulty. The UFC knows that Couture will never be a contender again but fights like this one allow him to finish his career with high-profile victories. Toney has approached the fight saying that he doesn't need to learn any jiu-jitsu or wrestling skills and that attitude will certainly seal his fate. For those who think that he has a punchers chance, he better knock Randy out on the first punch he throws cause after that he will surely be on his back. Couture will take this fight to the mat and punish Toney for all the smack he’s been talking. He will probably soften him up with some ground and pound before he locks in a submission to score a victory for MMA over Boxing. There is no value laying –6-1 on Couture straight up and this fight will definitely end inside the distance. Toney has a decent chin, so it only makes sense to lay the smallest amount offered, that being, Couture by submission. Play: Couture –1.30 by submission (Risking 2.6 units to win 2).
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Kenny Florian –3½ +1.30 over Gray MaynardVISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Gray Maynard is 9-0-0-(1) in his career and is riding a seven-fight win-streak in the UFC but he is taking a massive step up in class here. Kenny "KenFlo" Florian is one of the best Lightweight mixed martial-artists in the world. He has dominated everyone he has faced before and after his Championship match loss against B.J. Penn. In his two fights since that title shot he has looked like an absolute beast, dominating both Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi before submitting them both with rear naked chokes. It should also be noted that both of those fighters came back to win their next fights convincingly. Gray Maynard is getting a lot of hype going into this contest but his résumé isn't nearly as impressive. He is a great wrestler with solid power but he doesn't finish his fights. His last six victories came by decision and he barely squeaked by both Nate Diaz and Roger Huerta via split decision in his last two contests. If both Florian and Penn win on this card, it will surely set up the rematch between them for the belt. Maynard has looked very hesitant in his recent bouts and if he does that here "KenFlo" will jump all over him. Florian is one of the most intelligent fighters in the sport and he will get the best of Maynard both on his feet and on the ground. He may end the fight within the distance via submission but there is no reason why he won't claim victory by more than 3½ points on the scorecards of the judges. Taking plus money by laying 3½ points on one of the best in the sport only makes sense here. Play: Kenny Florian (-3½ Points) +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Harry Bondi
CAROLINA (-3) over Tennessee
Few teams have looked worse in the preseason than the Panthers. Their first unit has not scored a touchdown yet this preseason and head coach John Fox has told our scouts that have been attending Carolina practices that he will go all out to build confidence in his young team even if it means playing his starters into the fourth quarter. Tennessee, on the other hand, has looked awesome in preseason especially last Monday night when they crushed Arizona ( we had the Titans!). With the betting public lining up on the popular Titans tonight let's take the hungry Panthers as a short home favorite.