Jim Kruger
Dallas vs. Houston
Play: Houston -4½
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The Houston Texans get a nationally televised game on CBS tonight in their first home game of the preseason. The two teams are obvious geographical rivals and meet again in Week 3 in the regular season. After being embarrassed in New Orleans last week where they allowed 300+ yards to the Saints in the first half of a 38-20 loss, the Texans’ toughness is being questioned. Keep your eyes on DE Mario Williams who was criticized for his play as he goes against Dallas’s new LT, Doug Free.
Dallas is still missing two starting offensive linemen while Houston has cluster injuries in the linebacking corps.
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The Cowboys have not come with a 100% effort in their dress rehearsal game under Wade Phillips going a perfect 0-3 against the spread. The first-team Dallas offense finally scored their first touchdown last week against San Diego. However, that “big drive” started at the Chargers’ eight-yard line after the Cowboy defense returned a fumble 80 yards. The Cowboys have scored 16, 9, and 16 points in preseason games.
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With the Cowboys playing in the Hall of Fame game, this is their fourth preseason game. They have been in camp longer than any other team and even Coach Phillips has called the team “tired”.
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Take the Texans
Lenny Del Genio
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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Ok, so we were off base on last night's call with the Rays. It appears as if the Red Sox will use this series at Tropicana Field as a way to breath new life into their playoff hopes and they've got a great shot at building off last night's win with Clay Buchholz on the bump this evening. Boston has won 17 of Buchholz's 22 starts this year and going back to the '09 season the team is a perfect 6-0 when he starts and they're a road underdog of +150 or less. Furthermore, the Chowds have been a decent moneymaker all season in night games (60-37) and on the road vs. righties. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has lost money all season long at home vs. righties and is just 5-9 here at The Trop when coming off a game where they scored two runs or less. Starter Matt Garza has a 1-7 team start record the last two seasons if he allowed two runs or less in each of his two previous outings. Take Boston.
JR O'Donnell
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PHI (+110) vs SDP
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Phillies + 110 behind Joe Blanton grab the RED HOT O'ster's free play today, Off a smooth & sweet 2-0 perfect Friday. Top play Washington and Phillies + 110 last night. We will fire away on the Phillies again this afternoon. The Padres will be the public side again today and we are not biting! Phila checks in @ 71-57 right on the heels of those Bravos. The Padres Garland has been bombed by the Phillies & he checks in @ 0-4 with a nearly 8 ERA Play the Phillies.
Spartan
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TOR -1.5 (+108) vs DET
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I like our chances here big time guys with Toronto and Brandon Morrow squaring off once again against Jim Leylands Tigers. No way in the world I am laying that kind of chalk but I do think the run line here is a perfectly reasonable wager. The fact is Morrow has not taken a loss since clear back in June. While some, or in fact many, pitchers start to hit the wall some this time of year that does not seem to be the case with Morrow who has seen an actual increase of late in his velocity. Detroit had been a huge letdown for it's fans this year and is actually sitting under the .500 mark now after that tough loss last night. The Tigers are plugging in minor leaguer Alfredo Figaro today to take Jeremy Bondermans spot in the rotation. Bad draw here for the young pitcher in my view, Morrow in search of his fifth straight win and I think it happens. Home crowd leaves happy today guys, take the Blue Jays on the run line.
INSIDER ANGLES
SAN FRANCISCO VS. OAKLAND
The Battle of the Bay is a matchup of 2-0 teams this year as the San Francisco 49ers visit the Oakland Raiders, and in a game where the starters figure to play into the third quarter for both teams, the 49ers have more talent and a coach that loves winning in preseason, so they get the call as slight underdogs here.
Probably no coach in the NFL gets more out of his players then Niners coach Mike Singletary does, and given that Alex Smith is maturing nicely at quarterback, the running backs are solid led by Frank Gore and the defense is good and very physical, it is no wonder San Francisco has become a popular choice to win the NFC West Division.
The 49ers’ 2-0 start should not be too surprising given Singletary’s personality, as he is very intense and wants to win every game, regardless if it counts or not/ Then again, he has a young team, so instilling confidence by winning in preseason takes on greater importance. To this end, Singletary is now 5-1 in his two preseasons as head coach, with the lone loss coming in Week 4 last year in the only game where Singletary did not play his starters.
Now the Raiders’ 2-0 start should be taken with a grain of salt, considering they were shit out until about 5:00 left in the game by the Cowboys and then beat a Bears team that may challenge the Rams as the worst in the NFC this year. Also, the Oakland run defense has been horrendous, allowing a dreadful 5.1 yards per carry thus far, so we see the San Francisco offensive line pushing the Raiders’ front around a bit.
Besides, Singletary would like nothing better than to knock off what is still probably the more popular of the Bay Area teams on the road, and we look for his team to do just that.
Pick: 49ers +1
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
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I certainly like the Phillies again tonight as an underdog. I cashed in Philly +130 yesterday in a 3-2 victory, and I'll take them again now that they are finally healthy. This team is one of the best in baseball when healthy. They'll be up against Jon Garland of the Padres tonight, a starter they have simply owned. Garland is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in 5 career starts vs. Philadlephia. His teams are 0-5 in those 5 contests.
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The Phillies are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, 6-1 in the their last seven road meetings, and 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in San Diego. Joe Blanton is pitching well here of late, going 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Phillies are 6-1 in Blanton's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philly is 7-1 in their last 8 road games. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take Philadelphia Saturday.
Info Plays
3* on Colorado Rockies -118
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Reasons the Rockies win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%). This is a 42-9 ML System hitting 82.4% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 4-0 this season. Bet the Rockies at home.
Craig Trapp
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Arizona vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago -4
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This one is a huge play against the two QB's in ARI. Anderson and Leinart are pitiful so far this season and last as well. The defense has not looked a ton better either. CHI will play starters thru 2nd half and think you can expect to see a bunch of points from them. Don't think this one will be close as the CHI defense will be swarming the pitiful QB's of ARI! too easy today!
Dave Price
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres -126
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Blanton has struggled on the road all season, going just 1-4 (2-7 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.55. Meanwhile, Garland checks in white hot. He is 7-2 (9-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.37 at home this season. Plus, he is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.98 over his last 3 starts. San Diego may be coming off back-to-back losses, but it is 15-1 after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Take the Padres.
John Ryan
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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5* graded play on the Dodgers as they take on the Rockies set to start at 8:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game. Billingsley has been a superb starter this season sporting a 3.70 ERA and a 1.322 WHIP in 24 starts. Moreover, he has allowed just seven home runs on the season and NONE in his last 13 starts spanning 81 innings. Dodgers are batting 277 scoring 4.9 RPG with 10 home runs spanning the last seven games. The bullpen has posted a 2.01 ERA and a 0.671 WHIP over the last seven games. Dodgers are a solid 18-6 (+11.9 Units) against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers.
Doug Upstone
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Cincinnati vs. Buffalo
Play: Cincinnati +2½
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The Cincinnati Bengals are quietly going about their business. While Baltimore looks like a real Super Bowl contender and Pittsburgh is trying to figure out life at least for a quarter of a season without Ben Roethlisberger, the Bengals appear to be able to improve upon last year’s quick playoff exit.
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The offense has more weapons for Carson Palmer and the defense has greater depth. What to look for tonight from Cincy is road teams after two or more consecutive straight up wins in week four of the preseason are 44-16 ATS the last 17 years, including 9-2 ATS since 2008.
Hollywood Sports
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Pirates at Brewers
Prediction: Over
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Zack Duke sports a 6-12 mark with a 5.10 ERA and 1.58 ERA. He has particular trouble pitching on the road given his 6.08 ERA and 1.69 WHIP away from home this season. And he has a history of trouble against the Brewers given his career 6.10 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .333 opponent's batting average in 87 innings of work. Chris Capuano's 2-2 mark with a 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP looks better in theory but there are still a host of reasons to be concerned about this knuckleballer. At home, his ERA jumps to a 4.11 mark. And he typically struggles against the Pirates as he possesses a 5.94 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and .304 opponent's batting average in his 66 2/3 innings of work against Pittsburgh.
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On a deeper level, both of these pitchers share a troubling sabermetric statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Duke and Capuano have high ISO's of .177 and .181 respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future. Take the Over here while listing both pitchers.
Scott Rickenbach
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Athletics @ Rangers
PICK: Under 9
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Rich Harden is absolutely relishing this opportunity against his former team. At the same time, A’s starter Dallas Braden has been “in the zone” and should have no trouble holding down a struggling Rangers lineup! Texas did explode for seven runs yesterday but, prior to that, they had been held to four runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Also, the Rangers are 14-5 to the under on Saturdays this season. Over the last three seasons, they are 45-21 to the under on Saturdays. Against southpaw starters, Texas is 24-15 to the under this season and 86-57 to the under the last three seasons!
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In divisional games, the Rangers are 21-13 to the under this season. The A’s are now 18-5 to the under this month even after yesterday’s game snuck over the total. Oakland is 35-25 to the under this season when coming off of a loss and the Athletics are 68-45 in games played on grass fields this season. In Braden’s starts against divisional opponents, the A’s have gone 6-1 to the under. Overall, the southpaw has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. As for Harden, he was masterful against the Twins in his most recent start. Also, his three starts against AL West teams this season have not resulted in a single over! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Texas on Saturday evening. Thank you for checking in here and best of luck always from
Black Widow
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1* on Minnesota Twins -106
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We'll back the Twins tonight at a great price as they take on the lowly Seattle Mariners. The Twins are the team playing for something as they lead the AL Central by 3.5 games with a 74-55 record this year. Meanwhile, Seattle has nothing to play for and are just 50-78 this year. Minnesota is 10-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season this season. Nick Blackburn has not geen great this year, but he is up against the worst offense in the majors and should be fine tonight. The Mariners are 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take Minnesota on the Money Line.