Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 30

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Washington at Seattle
The Mariners look to bounce back from last night's 8-3 loss in the series opener as they face a Washington team that is 1-5 in Stephen Strasburg's last 6 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Seattle is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115).

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Doubront) 15.211; St. Louis (Masterson) 14.309
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wada) 16.339; St. Louis (Gonzales) 14.407
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 14.670; Pittsburgh (Worley) 15.552
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); Under

Game 907-908: Miami at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Cosart) 13.785; Atlanta (Harang) 16.139
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-135); Under

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Williams) 14.776; NY Mets (Colon) 15.621
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-160); Under

Game 911-912: Colorado at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Matzek) 12.812; Arizona (Nuno) 15.433
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-150); Over

Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 17.304; San Diego (Kennedy) 15.122
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Over

Game 915-916: Milwaukee at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Fiers) 17.872; San Francisco (Peavy) 16.319
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-110); Over

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pineda) 16.852; Toronto (Huchison) 15.370
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Over

Game 919-920: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 18.509; White Sox (Sale) 17.198
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under

Game 921-922: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Ryan) 14.997; White Sox (Bassitt) 13.852
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Under

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 16.560; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.497
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+160); Over

Game 925-926: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Webster) 15.877; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.709
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+150); Over

Game 927-928: Cleveland at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Bauer) 16.558; Kansas City (Shields) 15.122
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Over

Game 929-930: Texas at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ross) 14.997; Houston (Feldman) 13.621
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Under

Game 931-932: Oakland at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Samardzija) 16.330; LA Angels (Rasmus) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 933-934: Washington at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.817; Seattle (Elias) 16.496
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115); Over

DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Chicago at Indiana
The Sky open the Eastern Conference finals in Indiana tonight and face a Fever team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 conference finals games. Chicago is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3)

Game 603-604: Chicago at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 114.679; Indiana 113.363
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 141
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 147
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under

Nite Owl Sports

Penn State vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida Pk

The college FB season is still two weeks away, but as long as lines are posted on the week one games, which they now are at most books, there is no reason to hold off on getting down at a good early line on any game(s) that we have isolated for picks and possible big picks. And this game is clearly one of them, where George O’Leary takes his UCF Golden Knights to his beloved Ireland to face off in Dublin against a Penn State team that UCF used LY as a “spring board” to their “break-out” season, culminating in a (not so) shocking 10 point “upset” of heavily favored (by 17 points) Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl. As you may recall, UCF got their first “signature win” of the season by “upsetting” Penn State 34-31 in (not so) “Happy Valley” as 4 point dogs, then followed that up a few weeks later with a much bigger road upset win, beating L Ville and Heisman candidate Teddy Bridgewater in a nationally televised 38-35 comeback thriller at “the John” (Papa John’s Stadium in L Ville, Ky). UCF went on to win the newly formed American Conference to qualify for an automatic BCS Bowl bid, and with their huge upset bowl win over befuddled Baylor, shut up the detractors of that conference, many of who claimed it was just a slightly modified version of the “Big Least” Conference (which in actuality it was), which had sent some pretty crappy teams to BCS bowls as automatic qualifiers in recent years. And in that Fiesta Bowl, UCF QB Blake Bortles and his mates proved that they not only deserved their BCS Bowl spot, but were clearly one of the better BCS bowl teams. Those 3 upset wins LY made O’Leary’s UCF 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS L2Y against legitimate BCS “power teams” (although counting LY’s Penn State team as a member of that elite group is admittedly stretching it a bit). Of course, Bortles is gone, having moved on to an even bigger challenge in the NFL, that of resurrecting the moribund Jacksonville Jags. But the cupboard is hardly bare for coach O’Leary, whose Irish eyes were likely still “smiling” when he saw his list of 39 returning lettermen, which includes 15 starters (8 of them on defense) from LY’s record-setting team, whose only loss (certainly nothing to be ashamed of) was a 4 point nail biter to Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Fighting (Game) Cocks and his All American “beast” Jadevon Clowney, aka “the Clown.” Also notable is the fact that O’Leary is not only 10-1 ATS L7 years in his first two lined games of the season, but also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS L3Y in those first two lined games. We have not yet said a thing about UCF’s opponent in this game, Penn State, and we’ll start by giving “kudos” to their AD for getting “up off the mat” admirably (by scoring a quick hire of the very successful and well regarded Vandy coach James Franklin, a native Pennsylvanian) after getting “blind-sided” by the sudden departure last December of (now former) Penn State head coach, “Bullshit Bill” O’Brien, who lunged at the first NFL head coaching position (Houston) that was offered to him after just two seasons in Happy Valley, after having sworn to Penn State officials that he was “in it for the long haul” when he took the job at State College after the Jerry Sandusky scandal imploded and resulted in the abrupt dismissal of long-time college FB coaching icon Joe Paterno. However, that is the limit of our kudos for Penn State, whose wimpy administration and Board of Trustees allowed the NCAA to have its way with them, including assessing $60 million in fines, disqualifying Penn State from bowls for a few years, and drastically cutting their allotment of football scholarships, all for stuff (the fall-out from the Sandusky scandal) that was admittedly awful, but which was clearly outside the NCAA’s jurisdiction for assessing those harsh sanctions (and I say that not just as a casual observer giving an “off the cuff’ opinion on the subject, but as an experienced, retired attorney giving an informed but informal legal opinion). In any event, while Penn State managed to “survive” the aftermath of “Sandusky-gate” with two surprisingly respectable seasons L2Y (going 8-4 in 2012 and 7-5 LY), due to a number of the previously Paterno-recruited “blue chip” players having bought into “Bullshit Bill’s” promises about staying there long term, we believe this could very well be the year that the “chickens come home to roost” in Happy Valley, in terms of Penn State’s lack of quality depth starting to take its toll, with the NCAA scholarship limitations and other sanctions now having been in effect for two years. In fact, looking at Penn State’s upcoming schedule TY, coupled with the fact that “transitional seasons” (like what this one is for new Penn State HC Franklin) usually do not go well, with even some of the best coaches having had rough first years taking over a different team and program, and installing their new “systems” while having to get familiar with a bunch of “new faces,” and vice-versa, we would be very surprised if the “Nitts” end up with a winning record TY, and not shocked if they win five games or less. A final reason why we like UFC here is that UCF coach George O’Leary has been “lobbying” for years for the chance to take his UCF Golden Knights to his beloved Ireland to face off in Dublin against a high profile but beatable team like Penn State. And when this match-up was finalized, and contracts were signed committing both schools to play this game, UCF had gotten itself “on the map” in college FB with a 12-4 season in 2012, culminating with a minor bowl win, and this looked like a good, interesting match-up in Ireland, between two high profile Irish head FB coaches who were long-time friends, O’Leary and his then coaching counterpart at Penn State, “Bullshit Bill” O’Brien. As we all know, O’Brien is no longer part of the picture for this game (except for the emotional scars that his abrupt and dishonest departure may have left on his former team members), but that in no way reduces how badly O’Leary wants his team to not only win this game but make a good showing doing it. So based on all of the above support, and getting an early ”UCF-friendly” line of “pick” here, we are all over this one. And while we are unable to assign units to our picks on this site (with each pick counted by the site’s record keeping “system” as a 100 unit play), we typically rate our picks from 2-5 units, and would rate this one a very strong 4 or 5 units at this early line. And we strongly recommend playing UCF NOW (rather than later) at this good price, which we doubt will still be around by the week before the game. Sure, we realize that similar to bowl games, these “out of country games’ involve travel, hotels, lots of ‘free time” and thus plenty of distractions for these young men, which can result in suspensions if they don’t handle those distractions well- but that applies equally to both teams, and so we’ll play UCF now at this good price and take our chances with any game week suspensions or discipline.

DAVE COKIN

WESTERN MICHIGAN AT PURDUE
PLAY: WESTERN MICHIGAN +11

It really doesn’t get much uglier than this. Western Michigan and Purdue would each probably like to regard 2013 as if it never happened. The Broncos and Boilermakers combined for a grotesque 2-22 record. Purdue never beat a single FBS opponent, and the only WMU victory was by one point against hapless UMass.

I wouldn’t look for a huge step forward by either squad this season, although I do think there’s a bit more reason for optimism at Western Michigan. They appear to have had what, by MAC standards, is a fine recruiting class and several of their true freshmen will be seeing action right from the outset. Head coach PJ Fleck got a pass from me for the most part as far as last season goes. The cupboard Fleck inherited from Bill Cubit might not have been totally bare, but it also sure wasn’t stocked with goodies.

I’m not going to be as liberal with my grade for Darrell Hazell. Purdue was not supposed to be a winning team, so this isn’t about them just going 1-11. It was more the way they went about accumulating that sorry record. The Boilermakers were only able to win against Indiana State, and they actually lost the stats to even that FCS opponent. Worse is that this team didn’t appear to have a clue as to what they were doing in most of the games I saw. Losing games is one thing. Getting completely dominated virtually every week is something else, and aside from a respectable loss to powerful Michigan State, there was almost nothing positive at all for this entry in 2013.

I’m already on record as predicting that Hazell might well be done in West Lafayette after just two seasons. Purdue figures to be a dog in all their league games, and to make matters worse, the only games in which they figure to at least compete are each on the conference road. I’m not ruling out improvement, as there’s now plenty of experience on this team, and that’s usually a plus. But the Boilermakers were consistently out game planned last season, and if that happens again this season, the results are going to be very similar to what we saw in 2013.

This was a game I had circled as a potential opening week play coming out of spring ball, as the reports I got on Western Michigan were positive and upbeat. There was one major concern, which was courtesy of Coach Fleck. He indicated at the start of camp that as many as 14 true freshmen might be starting come September. Had that ended up being the case, there’s no chance I’d be taking them here. But as it turns out, while several newcomers are going to see action right away, only two raw recruits are starting, and one of those is the long snapper.

Western Michigan is still likely to be pretty lousy this season. I’ve got them finishing fifth in the MAC West. But if the impressive freshman class comes along quickly, they could spring an upset or two and approach .500. As for Purdue, I would expect a bit of improvement but not enough to avoid finishing at the bottom of the B10 West. Maybe they can avoid another train wreck but there’s just no way I can see this team winning more than four games, and that’s the glass half full outlook.

I have Purdue winning this game, but can’t buy the number being as high as it is. I see them being extremely vulnerable to the run again, and that’s good news for a Broncos squad that probably wants to grind things out and hope to stay close enough to have a chance at the upset late. What I sure don’t see here is the blowout Purdue win. If that’s the case, double with Western Michigan should be more than enough to make getting at least the cover a good possibility.

JR O'Donnell

Mississippi St -28.5

JRO will be play'n the Mississippi State Bulldogs -28.5 to smash the Southern Miss Golden Eagles as we are super high on this SEC West ball club this year... Defense sets the tone and the Bulldogs return 8 starters on D... The talk of the town is this team and we feel that it will be the best team in years... Recruiting wars in the state and the fact that Southern Miss has just a ton of holes to fill.. Power Rated @ -35.4 points , we will are calling for a long long night for the Golden Eagles.. We have the Dogs a top 25 ball club and they will give the LSU Tigers all they can handle Sept 20th .. their bowl game wa s 44-7 beat down of Rice............ 49-10 final we love the Bull Dogs to set the SEC tone... early..

Bill Biles

Idaho vs. Florida
Play: Florida -34

Florida is looking to bounce back from a very disappointing season in 2013. The offense is healthy and the defense is always Florida's strong suit. Look for Florida to make a statement that last season is behind them and look forward to a successful 2014 season.

EZWINNERS

Virginia Cavaliers +21

Virginia enters this game on a nine game losing streak, but I like them to keep this game within the big three touchdown number. The Cavs return seventeen starters from last years team and they have a pretty solid recruiting class of young talent. UCLA should contend for a national championship with seventeen returning starters themselves including their quarterback Brett Hundley, but this is a ton of points to be laying on the road in the first game of the season on the opposite coast. This is the largest road favorite role for the Bruins in sixteen years. This is also the first time that UCLA has played in the eastern time zone since 2009 and its a noon eastern kickoff time which is 9am local time in Los Angeles. We see west coast NFL teams struggle in this spot all the time and I expect the same for the Bruins against a Virginia team that has talent on its roster. Take the points.

Arkansas Razorbacks +20.5

Auburn is coming off of an incredible season last year that saw them make a run all the way to the BCS Championship game and the Tigers come into this game having covered the spread in eleven straight games. I expect them to be over priced especially early in the season and I will gladly take the points with Arkansas in this game. The Hogs showed improvement at the end of last season and I think they can have success moving the football in this game. Auburn did have some issues stopping the run last season as they gave up over 160 yards per game on the ground at over 4.5 yards per carry and Arkansas will put that defense to the test in this game. The Razorbacks have two solid running backs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins who should be able to keep the chains and the clock moving. Take the points.

Florida State Seminoles -17.5

It might look very tempting to take the generous amount of points with an Oklahoma State team that has had a very high scoring offense in recent history, but I believe that FSU will win big in this game. The Cowboys are one of the least experienced teams in college football heading into this season as they have just eight returning starters. OSU has lost a ton of productive players from last years team including every one of their All Big XII Conference players. The Noles are the most talented team in the nation and should use this national telecast to remind everyone that they are the team to beat. FSU was 11-2-1 against the spread last year, so I do expect Vegas to start inflating their numbers, but this is a bad spot for an inexperienced Cowboys to kick of their season. Defending nation champions the last fifteen years have one their opening game by an average of 31 points per game. Lay the points.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Ohio State -14 Over Navy: Preparing for the Navy Option attack is never easy, but the Buckeyes do get a break here as they have had all summer to prepare for this offense. Yes the Buckeyes will be without Braxton Miller, but the more digging I do the better I feel that they will be Ok with JT Barrett behind center. JT has been working with the first team offense are through the offseason and has also had a few weeks knowing that he will be the starting QB. Navy comes back with a very experienced roster, but they really are outclassed here, especially on the defensive side of the ball and just won't score enough points to keep this one close. You also have to believe that JT and the rest of the Buckeye roster wants to prove that they will be fine without Miller. This is a statement game for them. Buckeyes by 21+ here.

Alex Smart

Western Michigan vs. Purdue
Play: Western Michigan +10½

The Purdue Boilermakers finished last season on a dismal 1-11 SU run including 10 straight losses and were punished in those games on the stat sheet getting uncerimoniously out gained by an average 177 yards and 23 points per game. . Meanwhile their MAC conference opponents today Western Michigan also had a horrid season, behind some very inexperienced kids in key positions. These young men are now much more experienced and have enough talent to surprise some folks. Also HC Fleck has done well on the recruiting trail, and landed a few quality options that could make a splash in the MAC this season. Bottom line: Purdue;s HC Hazell after coming over from Kent State was thought to have some weapons at his disposal, but as is evident by his overall numbers unable to utilize them. With that said, I just cant see the Boilmakers as a 10 point favorite right now based on last seasons futility and Im betting the value lays with backing what Im also betting- will be an improved version of the Mustangs in 2014. Boilermakers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. MAC.

Alex Smart's Featured Package

Tony George

Penn St. +1

Avenging a loss where Penn State had over 450 yards of offense last year in this game, but no Blake Bortles for UFC this year and the Golden Knights lost 85% of their offensive production to the NFL including their RB. Penn State has a great QB, and a great new Head coach and I doubt against a beatable team he will fail in his opener, even on the road in IRELAND!

I will say Penn State has lost their luster since the Joe Pa/ Sandusky scandal rocked the University, but Bill O'Brien (now head coach in the NFL) did a nice job of constructing a solid foundation and new head coach Franklin landed 12 Four Star recruits as ranked by Rivals last year, and many have made huge strides in fall camp. A quick look at what it is, Penn State has their 2 best offense offensive players back at QB and RB, and CFU lost both of theirs and have to play a motivated team in another country and break in a whole new set of skill players on offense.

Jeff Hochman

Clemson vs. Georgia
Play: Clemson +7.5

I like the Bulldogs to be improved this season but this line is way out of whack. Cole Stoudt will step in at QB after completing 47 of 59 passes for 415 yards and five touchdowns as Tajh Boyd's backup last year. He has looked the part for Clemson this Summer. The Bulldogs have won 16 of their last 17 home openers, but will begin the season without four-year starting QB Aaron Murray for this matchup. Hutson Mason takes over and should get better as the season progresses. Both teams have extra time to prepare for this first game. Georgia is just 4-9 against the spread as home favorites of late and 1-4 ATS as home chalk of 6 to 9 points. The Tigers are a good team and have done very well against SEC foes. Take the road dog!

Ben Burns

Arkansas vs. Auburn
Play: Arkansas +19

Auburn is coming off a fairytale season. After going 0-8 in the SEC in 2012, the Tigers were one play away from their second BCS Title in four years. This remarkable turnaround under Gus Malzahn has raised the bar in 2014 and you can see that by taking a look at the number for their first game of the season. All of last year the Tigers were favored by more than 20 points just once - aganst Florida Atlantic.

Not that Auburn doesn't deserve to be favored in this situation. They did beat Arkansas by 18 last year and that was in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks are basically where Auburn was at this time last season. The Hogs failed to win a single SEC game in Bret Bielema's first year here. But if the faithful need to draw inspiration from somewhere all they need to do is look across the field Saturday afternoon.

This SEC West rivalry has a history of upsets. The dog has taken the game outright eight of the last 13 years. The home team is just 4-8 straight up.

Arkansas will be better this year as they've had a year to adjust to Bielema's system. I don't think Auburn will be able to match last year's magic per se. They'll win here, but it will be closer than the oddsmakers projection.

Matt Fargo

Ohio State vs. Navy
Play: Navy +16½

Obviously, the loss of quarterback Braxton Miller is a huge blow to Ohio St. but it is still a talented team all around and will still be playing for the Big Ten Championship. While the line has been adjusted to make up for the Miller absence, it has not gone down as much as I thought it would so we are still getting value on Navy. The Midshipmen are never an easy matchup for any team and especially one that does not see them very often. Navy is one of the few full-time practitioners of the triple-option left at the college level and it is very difficult to prepare for, no matter this being the first game of the season. Ohio St. knows that. Navy came into Ohio Stadium to open the 2009 season against an Ohio State team that would end up going 11-2, winning the Big Ten and then beating No. 7 Oregon in the Rose Bowl and lost by just four points as a 22-point underdog. Junior quarterback Keenan Reynolds leads an offense that was No. 2 in the FBS last year in rushing at 325.4 ypg. Reynolds ran for 1,346 yards and 31 touchdowns. It will be up to the Buckeyes defense to slow down the Navy attack in order to give its offense a chance. Redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett will be starting at quarterback for Miller and he will be the first freshman to start a season opener for the Buckeyes since Art Schlichter did so in 1978. Navy is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 15 returning starters and that is an added asset when the team is one of the most disciplined in football. Navy has been one of the best underdog teams over recent years as it is 29-12-1 ATS in its last 42 games when getting points. Look for that run to continue Saturday.

Matt Fargo's Featured Package

Nick Parsons

Arkansas vs. Auburn
Pick: Arkansas

Arkansas has won three of its last four visits to Auburn. Winning may not be easy for the Razorbacks this time. However, I do expect them to keep it close. Auburn has a number of issues as neither their #1 QB or #1 corner are expected to start. (Both should eventually get in the game.) Razorbacks should be improved this season and they’ve finally got a healthy QB, in Brandon Allen. He’s complimented by a trio of talented running backs. Remember, the Razorbacks have a proven coach in Bielema, one looking to settle a score against another coach he isn’t necessarily fond of. The Razorbacks are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were road dogs in the 14.5 to 21 range. Grab the points! .