Tom Grassi
Western Michigan at Purdue
Pick: Purdue
What a great matchup this is! Both of these teams won one game each last season. For Purdue, they’re looking to be better this season as their futures win total is 3.5 wins. For Western Michigan it’s looking like another bad season as they have only 13 returning starters coming back. The Sportsbooks opened the Boilermakers as 13-point favorites. But that proved to be a bad number as the line was steamed down to 10-points. Despite the big move the money is split on the game. It’s tough to lay 10-points with a Purdue team that averaged only 15 points last season. But they have QB Etling and RB Hunt back and they should be too much for a bad Bronco defense.
EZWINNERS
Utah State Aggies +5.5
Utah State is the defending Mountain West Mountain Division champion and they will not be intimidated by playing at Rocky Top. The Aggies have put a scare into Auburn, Wisconsin and USC over the past three seasons losing those games on the road by a combined nine points. Utah State has a vetern quarterback under center in senior Chuckie Keeton who should be able to have success against a Tennessee defense that last year gave up 29 points per game and had the fewest amount of sacks in the SEC. The Vols are still a work in progress and they are the only team in the nation that is replacing everyone of their starters from last season on both their offensive and defensive lines. The Vols starting quarterback Justin Worley leaves a lot to be disired and Worley and company are up against an Aggies defense that allowed just under 18 points per game the last two seasons. The Aggies are on a 18-6 run against the spread. Take the points.
Carolina Sports
Alabama vs. West Virginia
Play: Alabama -26
Alabama comes into this game off a rare two game losing streak. Saban has had to get his club re-focused and re-energized after being upset in back-to-back games to end the season last year. Bama has loads of talent this year. The main question mark coming the season is at QB. However, that is a big question mark. The Tide lost All-American QB AJ McCaron and two qb’s will get playing time this year, transfer Jake Coker and returning back-up Blake Sims. The other question mark in our eyes is the hiring of new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. USC offense sputtered under Kiffin last year with tons of talent around him. How will he adapt this year to all this talent around him and will he be able to get the QB’s to play at a high-level?
The Tide have an incredible defense after only allowing 13.9-ppg and 4.8-ypp last year, they return 5 starters but are loaded with top talent returning. The defense will always be the main focus point with Saban and he will demand a better performance this year. We look for the Tide’s numbers to better this season as they are talented at every position. The offense needs to step up. It did average 38.2-ppg last year and 7.1-ypp but they did play Tennessee-Chattanooga and some of the bottom teams in the SEC.
West Virginia is in the 4th year under Dana Holgorsen and after a 4-8 record last season the alumni in Morgantown are not happy. Holgorsen is supposed to be an offensive genius as a coach and in his first year without Genp Smith the offense sputtered big time. The offense dropped from avg over 38-ppg with Geno Smith to 26.3-ppg last season. The Mountaineers did have injury issues at QB last year so health is a big question mark this year. Look for senior qb Clint Trickett to put some big numbers this season if he is healthy. WVU needs to improve defensively as they allowed 33.3-ppg. With 7-starters back they should be better but they don’t have the talent to compete with Alabama.
The linesmakers have this game at Alabama -26. Vegas always adjusts the line for when the Tide play because they are a high-profile public team. Look for some points to be put up in this one. Bama usually struggles against up-tempo offensive teams but now you give Nick Saban a full off-season to prepare for West Virginia’s up-tempo offense and they will be fine. Alabama performs well in a big-favorite role as they is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points under Saban. Our ratings have Bama -30 in this one. Alabama gets the call in this one.
Joe D'Amico
Florida State vs Oklahoma State
Pick: Florida State
The National Champions return this season loaded with talent and experience. QB, Jameis Winston is scheduled to play after some speculation. Oklahoma State is a young, thin team with only 8 starters returning. On "D" they lost 8 of their top 9 leading tacklers. On offense, QB, J.W. Walsh struggled through most of last season and really faltered when facing the top teams. FSU has a ton of weapons. Don't forget they won by an average of 40 PPG last season and will come out here and make a statement to let everyone know that they are for real.
Brandon Shively
Arkansas +18½
I like Arkansas to cover what I will call an inflated spread this afternoon. Arkansas comes into this game in the 2nd year of HC Bret Bielema's offense and I am looking for improvement starting this Saturday vs. Auburn.
When these two teams played last season, Arkansas was a 7.5 point home dog and lost 35-17. Looking closer at this game though, they only got outgained by 20 yards and held Auburn to a season low 366 yards. This is very important as the Tigers are a healthy 3 TD favorite this Saturday. Arkansas returns their QB, top 2 RB's and the offensive line will be improved as well. I see this game where Arkansas will use their Power running game which will burn the clock and keep this game within the 10-14 point range easily. On defense, Arkansas returns 8 of their top 9 in the secondary and they will be able to prevent the 'big plays' from Auburn. I will also note that Arkansas ended 2013 on a positive note covering their last two road games as they were big double digit dogs. They gave LSU a run for their money and I they will do the same thing in this game.
Auburn comes into this game having lost their Top RB from last season who had 23 touchdowns. They also lose their starting LG for the season due to injury (1st Team Fr AA) and now QB Nick Marshall is suspended for the game. The offense will struggle to score over 31 points in this game. Auburn also loses their Top defensive linemen and also lose their Kicker, Punter, Kick Returner, and Punt Returner. This is huge as I am looking for Arkansas to win the battle of field position in this game.
In closing, we are getting 3 TD's with a team that likes to control the clock and run the ball. They held Auburn to a season low 366 yards this season and Auburn's offense will not be clicking in this first game. Let's grab the points in this game and CASH in EASILY!
Virginia +21
I like Virginia as a big homedog this Saturday. This game as a 12:00 EST kickoff time which is a huge advantage for Virginia. UCLA is a West Coast team and essentially it will be 9:00 AM Pacific time when this game starts and I expect them to come out flat.
For Virginia, they return 87% of their offense from last season and also return 85% of their tacklers on defense. They have a DEEP running back corps that I expect to pave the way today. On defense, the secondary is led by 3 seniors and a junior and is a Top 10 secondary in my opinion. They will be able to contain the UCLA offense and force them into settling for field goals which will help keep the spread within reach.
While UCLA is loaded with talent but they did lose their Top 2 linebackers to the NFL draft and they also lose their Top 2 sack leaders off the defensive line. This will help the Virginia running game this afternoon.
Look for UCLA to come out flat in this game and for Virginia to use the momentum from the home crowd to hang around in this one. I am looking for a final score in the 34-21 range for an EASY COVER
Dr Bob
Ohio State (-16) 34 Navy 21
The big news out of Columbus is the season ending injury to quarterback Braxton Miller, who was considered one of the best players in the nation after a very good junior season in which he ran for 1200 yards at 8.0 yards per run and improved his passing numbers (7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback). When I was doing my research on Ohio State’s new quarterback, J.T. Barrett, I came across the following quote from offensive coordinator Tom Herman about the backup quarterbacks. Herman said, “I wouldn’t say it’s where it was the previous two years, but close. By no stretch of the imagination are we where we were at the position with Kenny Guiton, arguably the best backup quarterback in college football the last two years”.
First off, Guiton was not close to being the best backup quarterback in college football, as his passing numbers last season were below average (6.8 yards per pass play came against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback, although with only 2 interceptions on 109 passes). Guiton was certainly a very effective runner with 315 yards on 37 runs but he also got the bulk of his playing time against San Diego State, Florida A&M, and Cal. Barrett is not expected to be nearly as effective running the ball as either Guiton or Miller (1200 yards at 8.0 yards per run) and the coaching staff says he has the weakest arm of any of their quarterbacks. That’s not necessarily going to mean he’s going to struggle since a lot of Ohio State’s passes are quick, short passes designed to get the ball into the playmakers’ hands in open space, which apparently is something that Barrett is pretty good at. After all, there has to be a legitimate reason why Barrett was ranked in the top 15 quarterbacks of his class coming out of high school two years ago. Meyer’s quarterbacks tend to post mediocre passing numbers in the first season in his system before significant improvement in their second year as a starter and Braxton Miller was actually slightly below average as a passer in Meyer’s first season in 2012. However, the rest of the offense was also learning the new system that year and that is not the case now, which is an advantage that Barrett has over Miller’s first season. I project Barrett as a better than average quarterback throwing the ball and he should also be a better than average runner – although not close to being as good as Miller and Guiton were running the ball last season.
The other big question about the Buckeyes’ offense is how they will replace the 1521 yards at 7.3 yards per run that stud Carlos Hyde produced last season. We can get an idea by looking at the Ohio State rushing attack in the first 3 weeks when Hyde was suspended. Even without Hyde the Buckeyes ran for an average of 6.7 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow an average of 4.8 yprp to an average team), but that number goes down to 6.3 yprp if the quarterback runs in those 3 games are taken out. This year’s offensive line isn’t as experienced as last season’s front but there is plenty of young talent at running back and I expect Ohio State to have another great running team – although it should be about 1.4 yprp worse than last year’s incredible rushing numbers. Overall, I rate the Buckeyes at 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively with Barrett at quarterback (compared to +1.9 yppl last season with Miller at QB) but there is potential for those numbers to be better. Navy should be just mediocre defensively despite having 7 returning starters on defense (a lot for a service academy) and the Buckeyes should still produce well over 400 total yards of offense while topping 30 points.
Ohio State’s issue last season was a defensive that was just 0.3 yards per play better than average, which isn’t very good for a team of that caliber. The Buckeyes should be much better defensively this season with a much more experienced unit and too much talent not to be better. Navy’s option will present a good test for the Buckeyes, as option attacks tend to be relatively better against better defensive teams, which is why less talented teams like Navy and Army run the option. Navy’s option is controlled for a 3rd straight year by junior quarterback Keenan Reynolds and the Midshipmen also have an unusually large number of returning starters on offense (8) for a program that averages less than 6 returning starters each year. The entire offensive line and 6 of the top 7 runners all return so the Middies should have one of their best offense in the Ken Niumatalolo era (since 2008). Ohio State certainly has the speed to give an option offense trouble but I wonder if they’re looking ahead to next week’s big game with Virginia Tech.
My ratings favor Ohio State by just 12 points in this game and Navy has a long history of success as a big underdog. I already mentioned that option offenses tend to be relatively better against good defenses and that certainly helps to explain why Navy is now 70-34 ATS since 1980 as an underdog of 8 points or more in road or neutral games, including 10-3 ATS under Niumatalolo. Urban Meyer’s teams, however, are tough to prepare for too and he’s done particularly well against non-conference opponents that aren’t as familiar with his offensive system. Meyer’s teams at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida, and Ohio State are now 39-12 ATS against non-conference opponents, including 35-8 ATS when not laying 35 points or more. I recommend staying away from this one.
UCLA (-21) 35 VIRGINIA 14
UCLA is a trendy pick to make it the 4 team playoff this season and the Bruins’ offense will get a pretty good test to start the season, as Virginia has a very good defense. The problem for the Cavaliers is that they’re likely to be dominated by UCLA’s defense, which should set up Brett Hundley and company with good field position most of the game. Hundley and the Bruins’ attack was very good last season, averaging 6.3 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense. With 9 starters returning on that side of the ball the Bruins should be at least as good and the only teams to hold UCLA below 31 points last season were Stanford and Oregon, which both ranked among my top 6 defenses last season. Virginia has a veteran defense (9 returning starters) that struggled with consistency last season but still put up decent numbers. This year’s Cavaliers should be considerably better than average defensively and will be fired up for a home game against a highly ranked big name school.
While the Cavaliers figure to competitive on one side of the ball their horrible offense will no doubt struggle to move the ball against a very good UCLA defense that was 0.9 yppl better than average last season and should be just as good even without 2nd Team All-American LB Anthony Barr, who had 10 sacks and 10 additional tackles for loss last season. Myles Jack is the new star of the defense and there are 7 other starters returning to that unit and shutting down Virginia shouldn’t be too tough. The Cavaliers were 1.0 yppl worse than average offensively last season (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and the coaching staff is hoping that sophomore Greyson Lambert will be better than he and David Watford were last season. Those two combined for just 4.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) and Lambert was the worse of the two with a pathetic 3.6 yppp average on 80 pass plays. My models project an improvement in the Cavs’ attack this season but they’re still going to be horrible and may not improve at all.
My ratings only favor UCLA by 19 points and playing a Noon Eastern time game 3 time zones away is tough on West coast teams. However, UCLA does apply to a 74-32-3 ATS first week big road favorite situation so I’m not eager to buck the Bruins. I’ll pass on the side but the Under looks like a solid play if Virginia’s defense is as improved as my model says they should be.
NEBRASKA (-21) 35 Florida Atlantic 14
The line on this game looks high to me, as apparently I’m not as high on Nebraska as the odds makers are. Nebraska wasn’t that good overall last season, as the Huskers were 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl). The offense should be better thanks to improved quarterback play, as last year’s incumbent starter Taylor Martinez was a disaster early in the season before getting injured. This year’s quarterback, sophomore Tommy Armstrong, split snaps with Ron Kellogg for most of the season and Kellogg, who posted the best overall numbers, is also gone. Armstrong was inconsistent as a freshman and averaged a modest 6.4 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Those numbers are actually a bit skewed due to a 99 yard completion and Armstrong threw 8 interceptions on just 131 pass attempts, which is not good. Sophomores that played regularly as freshman tend to make the biggest year over year improvement and my model projects Armstrong to be a better than average passer and to improve 0.9 yppp on Nebraska’s season rating last season. The Cornhuskers also appear to be in good shape running the ball with Ameer Abdullah coming back for his senior season after running for 1690 yards at 6.0 ypr in 2013 – although losing 4 starters from last year’s really good offensive line will make it tough to repeat those numbers. Overall the Cornhuskers should be better than average offensively after a down year last season. However, they don’t appear to be good enough to do excessive damage to a solid Florida Atlantic defense was 0.5 yppl better than average last season on a national scale – allowing just 4.9 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average FBS defense. That unit loses 5 starters and has a new defensive coordinator but is still expected to be average overall and potentially very good defending the pass with 3 of last season’s 4 defensive backs returning (last season the Owls allowed just 4.7 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team). The run defense is the issue for the Owls, who were 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average last season and are projected to be a bit worse than that this year. Nebraska is projected to rack up 428 yards at 6.1 yppl in this game, which equates to about 34 points.
The question is how good Nebraska’s defense will be. Last season the Huskers’ defense was 0.3 yppl better than average, yielding 5.3 yppl against teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, but that unit improved greatly after changes were made during the week 5 bye week (the defense was horrible in the first 4 games). Over the final 9 games the Cornhuskers’ were very good defensively, allowing just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl to an average team. The defense returns just 5 starters and it’s possible that they could struggle early in the season as last year’s inexperienced defense did (just 4 returning starters last year). The loss of 2nd round NFL draft pick CB Jean-Baptiste could spell trouble for the secondary but having 1st Team All-Big 10 DE Randy Gregory back should help keep the Huskers transition into 2014. My model projects the Huskers to be 0.6 yppl better than average defensively this season but they could be better if former Auburn recruit Jonathan Rose can live up to his potential in filling the void left by Jean-Baptiste. The Huskers’ defense shouldn’t have too much trouble with a Florida Atlantic offense that was 0.8 yppl worse than average last season and is projected to be only slightly better this year. Overall my ratings only favor Nebraska by 18 ½ points but teams with new head coaches tend to struggle in week 1 as road underdogs and FAU applies to a 19-43-1 ATS angle that is based on that premise.
Alabama (-26) 39 West Virginia 16
The line on this game is too high but I’m not eager to bet against Alabama in this situation and I’ll get that reason later in the analysis. Alabama is my 2nd highest rated team, behind Florida State, and I think I have the Crimson Tide graded as they should be graded. However, I think the odds makers are underestimating West Virginia after last year’s dismal 4-8 campaign. The collapse for the Mountaineers last season was due to a huge drop in offensive production from coach Dana Holgorsen’s first two seasons in Morgantown. The Mounties were 1.2 yards per play better than average offensively in 2011 and 1.3 yppl better than average offensively in 2012. The 2013 West Virginia offense was just 0.3 yppl better than average but last year’s offensive nosedive was somewhat predictable with just 2 offensive starters back from an offense that had 8 returning starters in 2012. Not only did West Virginia need to break in a new starting quarterback but they were without players that accounted for 97% of their rushing yards and 94% of their receiving yards from the previous year. My model projected a huge drop in offensive production and the Mountaineers played at the level that was expected based on their returning player stats and talent levels. The Mountaineers were actually 0.5 yppl better than average with either Clint Trickett or Paul Millard at quarterback (the 2 game Ford Childress experiment was disaster). Millard and Trickett are both back and they played at the same level last season so it probably doesn’t matter which one plays this season – although Trickett looks like he’ll be the starter. Regardless, the supporting cast is much more experienced this season and my model projects West Virginia’s offense to be 0.8 yppl better than average this season, which I actually think is conservative given Holgersen’s history as an offensive coordinator. As the OC at Oklahoma State in 2010 his offense was 1.3 yppl better than average and at Houston in ’08 and ’09 his attacks were +1.4 yppl and +1.3 yppl. My projection model generally underestimates how good Holgersen’s offenses will be and it’s certainly reasonable to expect this year’s Mounties to be in the +1.2 yppl to +1.4 yppl just like 5 of his last 6 offenses have been (all but last year when he had no experienced skill position players). For now I’ll stick to the +0.8 yppl that my model projects for the West Virginia offense, which puts them at a disadvantage against an Alabama defense that I project at 1.3 yppl better than average, which is 0.2 yppl better than last year’s defense despite having 2 fewer returning starters.
West Virginia’s defense improved last season but were still 0.1 yppp worse than average, yielding 6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. I project that unit to improve a bit more this season to 0.1 yppl better than average and the suspension of starting CB Ishmael Banks has no impact in the model given that he only had 3 passes defended despite starting all 12 games. Alabama’s offense has a change at quarterback after 3 seasons with the extremely efficient A.J. McCarron at the controls. Florida State transfer Jake Coker and last year’s backup Blake Sims are battling it out for the right to start and both may play in this game. The new quarterback will have an experienced and talented receiving corps to throw to but it’s unlikely that the pass attack will be as good as it was the last 2 seasons with McCarron. More likely is the level of the pass attack in 2009 and 2011, the last two times the Tide were breaking in a new quarterback. The pass rating in 2009 was 1.5 yards per pass play better than average and in 2011 McCarron had a rating of +1.6 yppp. This year the projection is +1.3 yppp but it could be a bit better. The Tide rushing attack is projected to be the best of the Nick Saban era with all the backs returning along with a more experienced offensive line. Alabama averaged 6.4 yards per rushing play last season while facing teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team and the projection for this season is +1.6 yprp. Alabama probably won’t be as efficient offensively from a yards per play perspective and McCarron only threw 7 interceptions last season and only 15 total picks in 3 years as a starter, which are numbers that are not likely to be duplicated.
My model projects 472 yards at 6.9 yppl for Alabama in this game but West Virginia is predicted to tally 330 total yards at a respectable 5.2 yppl and should keep this game close. My model only favors Alabama by 17 ½ points in this game but I do realize that Alabama is consistently more efficient in turning yards into points than projected while their defense is better than projected in yards per point also. If I apply Alabama’s historical yards per point numbers I would get a predicted score of 39-16, which still show value in favor of West Virginia. I’m reluctant to make West Virginia a play here because Alabama is an incredible 17-2 ATS since 2008 in the first 5 games of the season when not favored by 30 points or more. In other words, the Tide tend to start the season underrated and ready to play. I will still lean with West Virginia plus the points.
NOTRE DAME (-21) 35 Rice 14
The big news out of South Bend is the return to campus of quarterback Everett Golson, who led the Irish to the National Championship game in 2012. Golson, however, does not insure a better offense this season, as the Irish actually had a better pass attack and were the same overall offensively last season without him as they were with him in 2012. The Irish attack was 1.0 yards per play better than average with Golson in 2012 and 1.0 yppl better than average last season when starting quarterback Tommy Rees was in the game. The difference with Golson is fewer interceptions, so the offense could be better overall this season – although most likely not by much. What made that 2012 team really good was a defense that was 1.0 yppl better than average but this year’s Irish stop unit doesn’t even look at good as last year’s good, but not great unit that allowed 5.2 yppl to a schedule of teams that would have averaged 5.8 yppl against an average defense. With top CB Kei’Varae Russell out due to potential academic fraud, along with two other defenders expected to be contribute, the Irish defense now has just 4 returning starters and is projected to be just 0.2 yppl better than average. So, those Irish fans thinking Golson’s return equals another magical year are likely to be extremely disappointed, as this team looks like a 7-5 team to me if Russell ultimately doesn’t play this season (he’s very likely to be out for this game at the very least).
Rice represents a pretty easy opening game, as the Owls’ 10-4 record last season was a mirage. Rice only outgained their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 5.4 yppl while facing a schedule that was 0.8 yppl worse than average (so the Owls were 0.6 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage). Rice had 17 starters back last season and that experience likely helped them attain a 5-1 record in games decided by 7 points or less, but the Owls are projected to be 1.0 yppl worse than average this season by my rating model and they’re unlikely to be as fortunate in close games. My ratings favor Notre Dame by 20 ½ points, so these teams are priced correctly and I recommend passing on this one.
GEORGIA (-7½) 32 Clemson 25
Last year’s game between these two teams was an exciting 38-35 Tigers’ win at Clemson and Georgia is likely to even the score on their home field. Both teams replace highly productive quarterbacks in Aaron Murray and Tajh Boyd but Georgia is likely to have an easier transition with senior quarterback Hutson Mason getting valuable playing time at the end of last season after Murray went down with an injury. The Bulldogs’ receiving corps should also be much better after a rash of injuries to their starting wideouts last year. Mason put up good numbers despite the injuries to the receivers, averaging 7.7 yards on 119 pass plays against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback. Mason’s numbers should be a bit better this season with an offseason of working with the first team offense and he’ll also have the support of a good rushing attack featuring Todd Gurley, who has averaged 6.1 yards per rush in his first two seasons. Georgia’s offense won’t be as good as it was with Murray pulling the trigger on the pass attack but the Bulldogs should still have an elite offense.
My model, based on returning statistics and talent ratings, projects Clemson’s defense to be significantly better this season with the only real concern being the two new starters at cornerback. Replacing Bashaud Breeland will be particularly challenging given Breeland’s 17 passes defended but the talent is available to come close to filling the void and all 4 defensive linemen return, including 1st Team All-American Vic Beasley, who recorded 13 sacks and 10 other tackles for loss while knocking down 6 passes last season. Clemson’s defense was good last season (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl to an average team) and should be elite this season if the new cornerbacks play at the level expected from them. My model projects 421 yards at 5.9 yppl for Georgia in this game, which equates to just over 30 points.
Clemson’s offense was also great last season (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack), but the Tigers won’t have Boyd or star WR Sammy Watkins (or #2 WR Byrant). Watkins and Bryant combined to average an incredible 11.7 yards per pass thrown to them while the returning receivers combined for 9.7 yards per pass. That is still really good but the receiver position doesn’t look as strong and it’s doubtful that new starting quarterback Cole Stoudt will be as good at Boyd was last season. Stoudt does have experience mopping up for Boyd in blowout wins and he’s proven to be extremely accurate on short throws, as he completed 47 of his 59 passes last season but for just 8.8 yards per completion. Clemson will still have a good pass attack but the Tigers need to find a running back to elevate the rushing attack above mediocrity. Overall the Tigers are projected to be a more modest 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively, which is a bit better than their rating in Boyd’s first season as the starting quarterback.
Georgia’s defense has been between 0.4 yards per play better than average and 0.6 yppl better than average in 5 of the last 6 years, with 2011’s great stop unit (1.1 yppl better than average) being the exception. This year’s defense could approach the 2011 defensive numbers with 8 starters returning back from last year’s inexperienced unit (just 3 returning starters last year). Georgia has an outstanding defensive front 7 and should be good enough in the secondary to be considerably better than last year’s solid group that yielded 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense.
Georgia should be better than Clemson from the line of scrimmage and the Bulldogs have an advantage in special teams too with a 1st Team All-SEC kicker and two punters that combined for an outstanding 39.2 net punting average last season. When I add it all up I get Georgia by 7.2 points, which doesn’t make this game worth betting.
OKLAHOMA (-38) 46 Louisiana Tech 10
I’m not sold on Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight suddenly being an elite quarterback because he had one great game against an uninterested Alabama team that appeared to lack intensity when not playing for a national championship. Knight was great in that game but he still averaged only 5.8 yards per pass play for the season (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB). Knight was also just 5 for 14 for only 53 yards and a pick in the Sooners’ Spring game. We’ll just have to wait and see if Knight can throw the ball consistently well but there is no doubt he can run it, as he gained 470 yards on just 63 runs, which will help the rushing numbers, which should be elite. The Sooners project to have a good, but not great, defense and overall they rate pretty highly – just not in the top 4 where they rank in the polls. This game won’t be much of a challenge, as Louisiana Tech figures to struggle again on both sides of the ball. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 36 ½ points but I’m not really interested in playing Louisiana Tech.
USC (-22) 38 Fresno State 17
USC became a very good team last season after the firing of head coach Lane Kiffin, going 7-2 with a win over Stanford and with losses to only Notre Dame (on the road) and UCLA. The season ended with a dominating 45-20 bowl win over Fresno State and this game should be another comfortably win over the Bulldogs. USC fans are hoping the former Washington head coach and Trojans’ offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian can continue last year’s momentum with 14 starters returning. USC should be better than last season with quarterback Cody Kessler returning on offense with top two backs Allen and Madden, who combined for 1488 yards at 5.5 ypr. The loss of star WR Marquise Lee probably won’t hurt too much, as Lee wasn’t actually that great last season (a good but not great 8.7 yards per pass thrown to him) and Nelson Agholor became the star (10.3 yards per attempt). It’s also a plus that Sarkisian retained last year’s offensive coordinator Clay Helton. The defense loses impact LB Devon Kennard (9 sacks) but there is plenty of talent on hand for new defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox to mold into a very good unit that will be particularly tough to throw against.
While USC should be improved this season Fresno will most likely be a little worse without star quarterback Derek Carr and two receivers that combined for 231 catches and 30 receiving touchdowns. The new quarterback hasn’t been announced as last year’s backup Brian Burrell battles Duke transfer Brandon Connette, who put up good numbers with the Blue Devils. Connette averaged 7.8 yards on 152 pass plays while facing mostly bad defenses that would combine to allow 7.0 yppp to an average quarterback and I project either quarterback to be better than average for the Bulldogs this season while the rushing numbers should be about average on a national scale. Fresno’s defense was 0.2 yards per play worse than average last season and that unit is projected to be 0.2 yppl better than average this season with 8 returning starters, including the top 6 tacklers and 1st Team All-MWC LB Ejiro Ederaine, who recorded 10 sacks in 2013. Fresno State was only 0.6 yppl better than average last season and I rate the Bulldogs at +0.4 yppl this season, which isn’t much of a drop, and the special teams figures to be better. Overall, this team looks about the same as the previous two seasons – they’re just not good enough to compete with the Trojans. My ratings favor USC by 21 points, which doesn’t give us value on either side.
Florida State (-17½) 42 Oklahoma State 20
Florida State won the national championship last season with easily the best team in the nation and the Seminoles appear to be just as good based on my metrics. Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston returns for his sophomore season and his numbers should come close to last year’s epic performance. Sophomore returning starters tend to improve more than any other group but that improvement should be dampened by the loss of big play receivers Benjamin and Shaw who combined for 1944 receiving yards at 11.9 yards per pass thrown to them. Leading receiver Rasheed Greene returns along with TE Nick O’Leary and those two combined for 10.9 yards per pass attempt. That difference isn’t much but I also expect some regression to the mean in regards to Winston’s incredible 15.8 yards per completion. There are plenty of examples of quarterbacks with incredible yards per pass play numbers that don’t reach those levels in the very next season but the fact that Winston is a sophomore gives him a better chance to duplicate last year’s performance based on my data. The rushing attack has been among the best in the nation in each of the last two seasons and the loss of leading rusher Devonta Freeman (1016 yards at 5.9 ypr) shouldn’t be an issue given that new lead back Karlos Williams averaged 8.0 ypr while running for 730 yards in his first season as a running back after two years playing defense. Florida State should be just as good, or better, running the ball this season as they’ve been the last two years.
The Seminoles also have been among the very best defensive teams in the nation the last 3 seasons and should be just as good this year even with the loss of 5 of their top 6 tacklers. Last year’s team had only 4 returning starters on defense and lost a lot of talent too yet they were slightly better than the 2012 defense that had 8 returning starters. Florida State’s defense is just as talented, and more experienced, than last year’s stop unit and they’ll be tough to score against.
Oklahoma State has an offense that is good enough to test FSU’s dominating defense, as the Cowboys have averaged 39 points per game or more for 4 consecutive seasons. Last year’s attack was the worst of those 4 years as neither Clint Chelf or JW Walsh lived up to the elite standards of recent years. Both quarterbacks were still good by all other standards, as the Cowboys averaged 7.1 yards per pass play and 6.1 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp and 5.3 yppl to an average team. Chelf is gone and the offense now belongs solely to JW Walsh – although the backups were reportedly great in camp as well. Walsh was great in 2012, averaging 9.2 yppp on 167 pass plays but he managed just 6.8 yppp last season on 195 pass plays. Overall Walsh has averaged 7.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback and I’ll assume that he’ll play at that level this season – although it’s certainly possible he could return to his 2012 form and lift the Cowboys’ attack up to the elite levels achieved from 2010 through 2012. Oklahoma State was 1.7 yards per play better than average offensively in those 3 season before dropping to +0.8 yppl last season and I project them slightly worse this season until Walsh proves he’s regained his 2012 form.
Oklahoma State had a very good defense last season (1.1 yppl better than average) but that unit figures to regress with just 4 starters returning, including just 1 that was among last season’s top 9 tacklers. The Cowboys’ stop unit should still be pretty good (they project at 0.6 yppl better than average), but they’ll have a tough time containing the Seminoles in this game. Overall my ratings favor Florida State by 22 ½ points but I would get 15 ½ points if Oklahoma State’s offense returns to the level of 2010 to 2012. The value certainly appears to be with Florida State, although it wouldn’t be that surprising to see Oklahoma State keep this game competitive given coach Mike Gundy’s history of playing above expectations.
LSU (-5) 28 Wisconsin 23
Both of these teams have a chance at making a case to be included in the 4 team playoffs this season, as Wisconsin is a good team with very manageable schedule (after this game) while LSU has the talent to be among the best 4 teams if they win the toss-up games. This game is obviously key for both teams and a loss here by Wisconsin would probably eliminate the Badgers because they don’t have any more highly rated teams on their schedule (they avoid Michigan State and Ohio State this season). LSU would still have a chance to make the playoffs by winning the SEC if they happen to lose this game but a win here would enhance their chances should they lose a game or two down the road.
The key for the Tigers in this game will be stopping Melvin Gordon and the Badgers’ punishing rushing attack. Gordon ran for 1609 yards at 7.8 ypr last season and his backup Cory Clement ran for 547 yards at 8.2 ypr as a freshman and will also have over 1000 yard by the end of the season. Defending the Wisconsin runners will be even tougher now that mobile Tanner McEvoy has been named as the starting quarterback over 2 year starter Joel Stave. Stave posted great numbers as a freshman in 2012 (8.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) but he regressed last season with an average of 6.8 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp) and frustration grew over his inability to consistently hit open receivers. Quarterbacks have it pretty easy at Wisconsin because opponents are so focused on defending the run that the Badgers’ receivers are mostly facing single coverage. Stave missed too many easy throws and McEvoy reportedly is much more consistent at hitting the open receiver, which is what won him the job. The fact that he can also run certainly didn’t hurt and I expect better passing numbers from the Badgers this season while the rushing attack gets even better with Gordon and 4 of 5 offensive line starters returning from last year’s punishing front. LSU doesn’t figure to stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack but the Tigers project to be 1.0 yards per rushing play better than average defending the run while likely being among the best pass defenses in the nation this season with a more experienced secondary and a stronger pass rush. The Tigers were 0.8 yards per play better than average defensively last season (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team) despite having just 4 returning starters and this year’s defense is the most experienced they’ve had since 2011’s dominating unit. Wisconsin is projected to average a decent 365 yards at 5.5 yppl in this game.
LSU should perform a bit better offensively in this game against Wisconsin’s good, but not great, defense that returns just 3 starters from last season’s very good unit that yielded just 5.0 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense. Wisconsin was particularly good defending the run last season (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yprp against an average team) but the entire defensive front 7 has new starters this season and I expect LSU’s rushing attack, featuring the nation’s top rated freshman Leonard Fournette, to run well in this game. Wisconsin does have experience in the secondary, with 3 of 4 defensive back starters returning, and LSU is breaking in a new quarterback, but I my model projects better than average success throwing the ball for the Tigers in this game. Overall my ratings project LSU with 370 yards at 5.9 yppl.
The total yards are projected pretty closely but LSU has a solid edge in special teams and is less likely to turn the ball over (they’re defense has a history of forcing a lot of turnovers) and overall the numbers favor LSU by 5 ½ points with a total of 51 points. That doesn’t show much value in this game for either the side or total so this is a game I have no interest in betting but a lot of interest in watching.
Bryan Power
Fresno State vs. Southern California
Pick: Southern California
What a week it's been for the Trojans already & they have yet to even play a game. There was the situation w/ Josh Shaw lying and then RB Anthony Brown quit the team and called new Trojans HC Steve Sarkisian a racist! Somebody better tell Sark that he's not in Seattle anymore!
All kidding aside, Sark was the former OC here under Pete Carroll during the "glory days" and has a talented team here. I like how the line has been bet down under three touchdowns, likely because of the controversy discussed above. You have to remember that at the end of last year USC destroyed Fresno State 45-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl. This Trojans team should be even better. FSU, without QB Derek Carr, will not.
Last year's Fresno State team won a lot of close games. They were 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less. That and the loss of the top QB in program history should signal a major downfall right off the bat. On defense last year, the Bulldogs allowed 430.8 YPG. With all that's happened in the last seven days, USC should want to win big. Including LY's loss in the Las Vegas Bowl, FSU is now just 2-7 ATS its L9 vs. Pac 12 teams. This could get ugly in a hurry.
MMA OddsBreaker
Parlay of Tony Ferguson to win (-260) with Carlos Diego Ferreira to win (-200) at (+108)
Carlos Diego Ferreira is a very talented lightweight on the rise in the UFC 155-pound division. Ferreira has some elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills, something he showcased in his UFC debut against Colton Smith. He also has above average judo so he can keep this fight upright if he wants to. Last but not least, Ferreira has some solid pop in his punches and should be able to score with his strikes against Nijem, a fighter who's known for having a poor ability to take punishment.
We're going to parlay Ferreira with Tony Ferguson, who's taking on Danny Castillo in the co-main event of the evening. Ferguson has a significant reach advantage against Castillo and his solid wrestling background should help him keep the fight standing where he wants it. As long as Ferguson can avoid the big right hand of Castillo, he should be in terrific shape. Castillo is 35 years old as a lightweight, five years older than Ferguson, and his chin is much weaker as he's been knocked out or hurt much more often in his MMA career. If Ferguson remains composed, he should not only win, but likely score a knockout.
Sam Martin
Rice at Notre Dame
Prediction: Rice
Way too many points being laid by Notre Dame this Saturday, and the combination of a huge lookahead spot with Michigan looming on deck along with a Rice offense that will eat the clock means the Fighting Irish simply won't have enough time to run up the score. Love taking the points with the underdog here with an Owls squad that not only won 10 games last season, but averaged 50 rushing attempts and well over 200 rushing yards per game.
That's not to say we think Rice has any shot of winnings this game outright - they don't - however, Notre Dame would be foolish to tip their hand and give the Wolverines anything on game film, and there's not really much motivation for ND to blow this week's opponent out of the water. All those rushing attempts means the clock will be continuously moving, and with Notre Dame running a vanilla playbook this week, they win this game in the neighborhood of 10-14 points and move on to next week's showdown.
Marc Lawrence
Rice at Notre Dame
Prediction: Rice
Edges - Owls: Owls 4-0 ATS last four versus foe that won 9 or more games last season, and 3-1 ATS dogs in first road game of the season. Irish: 1-5-1 ATS last seven home openers, and 3-7 ATS last ten as home favorites of more than 21 points. With the Owls having won 15 of their last 19 games overall, and the Dame facing a plethora of off-field player suspensions, we recommend a 1-unit play on Rice.
Jeff Hochman
Clemson vs. Georgia
Play: Clemson +7½
I like the Bulldogs to be improved this season but this line is way out of whack. Cole Stoudt will step in at QB after completing 47 of 59 passes for 415 yards and five touchdowns as Tajh Boyd's backup last year. He has looked the part for Clemson this Summer. The Bulldogs have won 16 of their last 17 home openers, but will begin the season without four-year starting QB Aaron Murray for this matchup. Hutson Mason takes over and should get better as the season progresses. Both teams have extra time to prepare for this first game. Georgia is just 4-9 against the spread as home favorites of late and 1-4 ATS as home chalk of 6 to 9 points. The Tigers are a good team and have done very well against SEC foes. Take the road dog!
Tom Stryker
Western Michigan vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -10
A pair of 1-11 SU teams from a year ago will do battle in West Lafayette on Saturday. Things didn't go well for Purdue head coach Darrell Hazell in his first season and he'll have the Boilermakers ready to make a statement against one of the MAC's weakest teams.
Technically speaking, this isn't a bad spot for PU. According to my notes, game one favorites priced at -7 or more are a strong 18-2 SU and 13-7 ATS provided they won two games or less the previous season. That bodes well for the Boilers. Also, double-digit MAC underdogs are a stiff 2-35 SU and 14-23 ATS in their last 37 against Big 10 foes including just 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS at game two or less. That spells trouble for the Broncos.
Once a force in the "Little Big 10" Conference (what I like to call the MAC), WMU has struggled something fierce posting a dismal 24-40 SU and 21-36-2 ATS record in its last 64 games including a disturbing 6-25-2 ATS in this set priced as an underdog of +24 or less. Also, against Big 10 opponents, Western Michigan is a woeful 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 tries and has lost by an average of 19.3 points per game.
The Boilermakers brass has decided to issue free admission for students to Saturday's game against the Broncos. That means coach Hazell, Morgan Burker and president Mitch Daniels are picking up the tab to fill the stands. Rest assured, PU will look to impress with the Ross-Ade Stadium potentially full. Take Purdue.
Scott Spreitzer
Troy / UAB Under 63½
I'm recommending a play on the Under between Troy & UAB on Saturday at 12 noon ET. These teams are obviously familiar with each other and I expect defenses to get the better of this meeting...at least relative to last year's final scoring output of 65 combined points. We should note the contest was decided by a FG in OT, and with less than four minutes to go in regulation, was a 31-24 contest...just 55 points on the board. Corey Robinson did it all for the Trojans and he is gone from this year's team. Robinson was arguably the top QB to ever play for Larry Blakeney. He'll likely go with both of his top-2 QBs in this one. The problem is, neither has much experience. UAB has a new HC in Bill Clark who inherits a shaky offensive unit. Making matters even tougher, UAB's top two QBs are gone from last season's squad and Clark will have to chose from inexperienced replacements. I believe the defenses will be ahead of the offenses and their young signal callers and I'm recommending this game Under the total.
Ross Benjamin
Clemson vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -7½
The Georgia Bulldogs won't only be out to atone for a disappointing 2013 season by their standards, but they'll be out to revenge a season opening loss to these very same Clemson Tigers a year ago. The Bulldogs defense will be improved, and running back Todd Gurley is fully recovered from the knee injury he sustained which limited him to just 5-games last year . Quarterback Hutson Mason (2-starts in 2013) showed what he's capable of when he replaced the injured Aaron Murray last year. Clemson will have to replace their starting quarterback, and their top three receivers from a season ago. I like the way things stack up for the Bulldogs in Saturday's premier matchup, that will be played "between the hedges" in Athens.
Any home favorite of 8.5 or less that's playing with revenge in their opening game of the season, they won 7 or more games in the previous year, and have won 15 or less of their past 22-games, versus an opponent playing in their season opener, and they won 10-games or less in the previous year, has gone 13-2 ATS (87%) during the past 18-seasons. Play on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points.
Jimmy Boyd
UCF Knights -2
There's no denying that UCF lost a couple of key pieces from last year's dream season in starting quarterback Blake Bortles and leading rusher Storm Johnson, but there's still a ton of talent coming back for the Knights. In fact, UCF has 15 returning starters and lost just 11 lettermen from last year's squad. I look for this team to surprise a lot of people with how well they play without Bortles in 2014.
Penn State on the other hand will be transitioning to a new head coach in James Franklin, who replaces an outstanding coach in Bill O'Brien, who did a tremendous job of keeping the program on it's feet after the Sandusky scandal. O'Brien really worked wonders with the Nittany Lions' quarterbacks and that has me concerned with sophomore starter Christian Hackenberg being able to match last year's numbers. Not only does Hackenberg lose his mentor in O'Brien, but he lost his favorite target in Allen Robinson, who had 97 receptions for 1,432 yards and 6 touchdowns. Penn State's top returning receiver is tight end Jesse James, who had a mere 25 receptions for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Even if the UCF offense struggles without Bortles, they should be very good defensively with 9 of 11 starters back. I look for the Knights to dominate this game on that side of the ball and cash in at least a 3-point win.