SPORTS WAGERS
EVERTON +162 over Chelsea
One of the more profound characteristics circulating this contest at Goodison Park is the notion that Everton is 4-1-0 at home when facing Chelsea. The most recent result between these two sides was a 1-0 Toffee victory against the Blues back in May. Additionally, Everton has won the last four meetings between the two squads when playing at Merseyside. Entering this contest, Chelsea has already racked up an astounding 6 points with consecutive victories against newly promoted Burnley and Leiceister City. In these two games, Chelsea has managed to strike five times to one goal conceded, the solitary goal given during the visit to Burnley in the opening fixture.
Everton shares a different tale, the Roberto Martinez managed club which has posted two draws, comprised of 2-2 ties against both Leicester City and Arsenal. Most notably, these two stalemates came when Everton visited the newly promoted Foxes and in a home stand against the defending FA Cup Champions from Highbury. History says Everton has a decent shot here based on the fact they have an .800 win percentage and four game home-winning streak against Chelsea at Goodison Park. In addition to this, the North London squad fears that they may be without the services of their striker Diego Costa, who suffered a minor muscular injury. On the Everton side, the Toffees have acquired a former Chelsea striker in Cameroon's Samuel E'To. E'To can be an excellent supplement to Romelu Lukaku, who may also have suffered an injury against Arsenal that can subsequently ail his overall performance. Everton will test Chelsea frequently with Steven Naismith threatening from a forward position. Given the uncertainty surrounding Costa and previous encounters, Everton’s value is too good to ignore.
Crystal Palace +½ +121 over NEWCASTLE U
This is a rather ergonomic selection considering historical results between the two sides. With four contests at home at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace is winless against the Magpies. However at St. James Park, the Eagles have enjoyed success. Records show that both sides are 1-1-2 in fixtures at Newcastle. Notably, the most recent collision between the two squads was a Newcastle victory that came in stoppage time of the second half, when Papiss Demba Cissé found the back of the net in the final stages. Despite Newcastle being a significant favorite entering this fixture, the two teams are separated in the table by 1 point.
Palace is still searching for their first points of the season, and they were not far from doing so against heavyweight Arsenal in the opening fixture. In front of a hostile crowd at the Emirates, the Eagles struck first with a goal from their veteran center back Brede Hangeland. Unfortunately for the South London club, they let the game get away from them and Arsenal escaped with a 2-1 victory. Conversely, the Eagles would continue their struggles at home with a loss to fellow London club, West Ham United. The Magpies opened with a scoreless draw against Aston Villa and then followed that up by suffering a thrashing at the hands of defending champion Manchester City in their own backyard. Despite the optimism from odds makers, Villa has yet to mark in either contest. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace has done so twice already and has done so when the score was level and when they also trailed. This may serve as the guiding force for what may be an astounding effort by Crystal Palace.
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves -129
The Marlins are 0-5 in their last five games versus right-handed starters. Going back further, they are a dismal 36-74 in their last 110 road games versus righty starter. Harang has been pretty solid this season, especially at home where he has a 3.51 ERA. Look for him to lead the Braves to a fifth straight home win and an 11th victory in 15 games. Miami's Cosart has pitched well since coming over from Houston, but he has a 7.01 ERA versus division opponents this season, and it doesn't help his cause that Atlanta was able to see him in late June. The Marlins are 21-45 in the last 66 meetings. I'll take Atlanta at home at this price.
Patrick Webb
Youngstown State vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois -11
Illinois is in year three of the Tim Beckman regime, but the two key additions to this team both arrived in 2013- OC Bill Cubit and QB Wes Lunt (Oklahoma State transfer). As much progress as Illinois made last season offensively, Lunt is designed for this type of offense and RB Josh Ferguson showed flashes of brilliance last season. Both should be helped out by a veteran offensive line that is in year 2 of their system. Youngstown State generally is as talented as any FCS program year after year, but this team lost a ton of talent from last season's 8-4 squad and is basically starting over on defense.
Illinois offense is going to put up points, the key to this season and game for Illinois is how quickly the defense's front 7 finds players who can make plays in the opposing backfield. Youngstown is primarily a rushing attack offensively and they will look to lean on sophomore Martin Ruiz who exploded onto the FCS scene last season. If Illinois can slow Ruiz on the early downs, YSU is breaking in a new QB in Dante Nania.
Ultimately Illinois should eventually out-talent Youngstown in this match up. How much Illinois wins by will be revealed on the defensive side of the ball. Illinois should be able to score at least 31 points in this game, and should expect to score more. If the defense plays well in this game Illinois may be a team to watch for the rest of the season.
Harry Bondi
CALIFORNIA (+11) over Northwestern
Sonny Dykes' first season as head coach at Cal last year was a disaster as the team went 1-11. The Bears had a tough time transitioning into new systems on both sides of the ball and were devastated by injuries, but are improved at nearly every position this year, and return sophomore QB Jared Goff, who set the school record for passing yards as a true freshman.
Last year in the opener for both teams, Northwestern prevailed 44-30 as a six-point road favorite, but that was misleading as it was a tie game at the start of the fourth quarter and Cal had more first downs and more total yardage. It's been a rocky preseason for the Wildcats, who finished last year losing seven of its final eight games. Top pass-catcher Christian Jones and defensive tackle Sean McEvilly suffered season-ending injuries, and star running back Venric Mark decided to transfer to be closer to his family.
Northwestern is also just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 tries as a double-digit chalk, so let's grab those points with the much-improved Bears.
Chip Chirimbes
Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
Play Oklahoma State +18½
I know, I know, I just spent three months in Florida and all reports are that the Seminoles are loaded and they are. The defending National Champs will return Heisman Trophy rapist Jameis Winston who find the task a little tougher the second time around as it will take awhile for the whole team to reach last year's intensity. Oklahoma State won 10 games last year and have lost a large number of seniors but they still will have the 'fastest' player of the field and Mike Gundy will find a way to take advantage.
Sleepyj
Yankees / Blue Jays Over 8.5
The NewYork Yankees will look to get a win today in Toronto and will face RHP Drew Hutchinson. Hutchinson has hit a snag here guys as he has lost his last 3 outings.The Yankees have seen Hutchinson already 3 times this year and had success getting hits and runs off Hutchinson. He seems to have lost his control and strength a little bit here and that concerns me against a Yankee lineup today. Hutchinson has good days and bad days and i expect him to have a rather bad today today. The Yankees have been hitting the ball very well over the last week ans scoring some runs. Yankees are looking to the postseason if they can stay in form here and they will need to be swinging today that's for sure. On the hill for the Yankees is Pineda today. Pineda is a nice pitcher but fails to get deep into ball games. That concerns me here. He has been due to regress here and i think today just might be the day as the Bluejays have been struggling to win games because of there pitching for the most part. Dropping the game last night will have Toronto swinging away today. Toronto has lost 5 out of 7 and it's due to pitching on the mound and in the pen. It must be a concern for the Toronto lineup that has been hitting to try to manufacture some more runs. I see both teams being very aggressive today and i expect this one to go OVER the total of 8.5. I think we may see one of both pitchers make an early exit here.
Joe Gavazzi
California +11
In last year’s 44-30 road win at Cal, Northwestern profited from a pair of pick 6s on deflected passes. That was one of just 5 victories for the Wildcats who logged a 3-8 ATS mark, including going 1-7 SU ATS in Big 10 play. Though 17 starters return for Northwestern, they will be missing QB Colter and RB Mark (transferred) as well as WR Jones (knee) who is already out for the season. Replacing that set of triplets will be no easy task against a greatly improved Cal Bear team. In the first season under HC Dykes, the Bruins went 1-11 SU, 2-9 ATS. Look no further than a 46/530 defense that was among the worst in the nation. Cal has now dropped 16 consecutive games vs. FBS foes, including 14 of them by 14 or more points. But in the second year of Dykes Air Raid offense, look for notable improvement over the 23 PPG of last season! Explosive QB Goff returns, along with a veteran OL. It’s tough to pull the trigger on a team with as much negative recent history as these Bears. But, I feel comfortable it is the right side knowing that in last year’s contest the Golden Bears actually won the yardage battle 548-508. Solid double digit dog take with one of the most improved teams in the country!
Mid-Major Matt
Duquesne vs. Buffalo
Pick: Duquesne +28
Buffalo has some huge holes to fill as they take on Duquesne on Saturday. The Bulls will be without standout running back Branden Oliver as well as Khalil Mack who is patrolling the field for Oakland. Buffalo has just four returning starters on defense with none of them coming in the secondary. Joe Licata is under center and he'll struggle early to find some weapons to throw to. The Dukes allowed just 191 passing yards per game last year. Duquesne is playing it's first ever game against an FBS school. They have seven starters back offensively and should be able to keep things close in this one.
LT Profits
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
Pick: Under 7.5
There could be a pitching duel in a matchup of two NL Central teams fighting for playoff spots when Alfredo Simon and the Cincinnati Reds visit Vance Worley and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Regression was expected from Simon after making his first All-Star Game as he outperformed his sabremetrics the first half of the year, and it came with an eight-start winless streak. However, he snapped that allowing one run on five hits in seven innings while beating Atlanta last out and he has a career 2.88 ERA vs. the Pirates including allowing a total of nine hits over two Quality Starts vs. Pittsburgh this year. Worley comes off of two rough outings, but he still has a 3.14 ERA and 56 strikeouts vs. 14 walks and is facing a Reds’ lineup batting .225 vs. righties the last 10 games. The ‘under’ is 14-5 in the Reds’ last 19 after scoring two runs or less their previous game.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN -10 over Cal
We’re not usually in favor of spotting this type of lumber in the first game of the year but the California Golden Bears are a bottom feeding PAC-12 team that seldom travels well and is coming off a season in which they lost 11 of 12 games. California Head Coach Sonny Dykes, now in his second year, cares not about defense. Dykes came over from Louisiana Tech where he instilled a high-powered offense that scored seemingly at will. He tried using that same philosophy with the Bears last season but it was clearly obvious that Dykes was in way over his head. The Golden Bears allowed 30 or more points in every game last season and 44 or more in 7 of them. The Golden Bears only victory a year ago was in Week 2, when they defeated Portland State, 37-30. There is nothing different about the Golden Bears this season. They will try to outscore every opponent because they can’t stop the marching band and we don’t see any improvements.
The Wildcats may just be one of the most undervalued teams in the nation. Last year, the Wildcats were much better than their 5-7 record indicated, as they lost five games in the final minutes of regulation or overtime. While they have recently suffered two key losses in running back Venric Mark and wide receiver Christian Jones, keep in mind that Mark missed most of last season due to injury, and their wide receiver unit is one of the deepest in the conference. Northwestern’s offensive line is both huge and talented. Wildcats QB Trevor Siemian figures to have all the time in the world to hit his talented receivers and frankly speaking, we have no idea how the Golden Bears are even going to come up with one stop in this one. Cal may keep it close early because they do have the ability to score points but when you are constantly needing to score to keep pace, it eventually catches up and often leads to a second half blowout. Northwestern went into California in the first game of the season last year as a 5½-point favorite and defeated the Bears 44-30. Now we only have to spot 4½ more points in Northwestern’s home. This year the venue changes but the result most likely will not.
North Texas +26½ over TEXAS
Former Louisville Head Coach Charlie Strong takes over the Longhorns and immediately made his mark by applying his no-nonsense approach. The Longhorns roster has been depleted by transfers, suspensions and dismissals. Among the dismissals were receivers Kendall Sanders and Montrel Meander, running backs Joe Bergeron, Jalen Overstreet and Chet Moss, as well as defensive backs Chevoski Collins and Leroy Scott. Strong also suspended running back/receiver Daje Johnson, offensive tackle Desmond Harrison and safety Josh Turner for at least the first game of the season. How that plays out on the field remains to be seen but we’ve already seen weak performances from big favorites with new head coaches in the first two days of action and another one here would not surprise. As a 26½-point favorite, Strong had the luxury of being able to suspend and or/punish several key players and not really have to worry about a loss. Had this opening game been against Baylor or Oklahoma for instance, we doubt very much that any suspensions would be in play. Charlie Strong needed to send a message to his players that this program will not tolerate any funny business and that nobody is immune. His goal is to get his players thinking about nothing but football and to get them ready for Big-12 play. We’re suggesting that Strong is not interested in running up the score, instead he’s more likely to employ a defensive oriented, clock-grinding style, which bodes well for the dog.
Head Coach Dan McCarney is in his fourth year for the Mean Green. It should be noted that McCarney and Strong won a national title together under Urban Meyer at Florida. Friendly familiarity usually benefits big underdogs, as knowledge of the opposing coach’s philosophy helps narrow the gap created by the talent disparity. McCarney’s Mean Green is a defensive oriented team. He preaches ball control and he preaches no turnovers. North Texas is in good shape in the backfield with two solid options and we can expect to see a heavy dose once again of that running game, especially when you consider its strong offensive line. When laying this type of lumber you want to be backing a team with a quick strike, high-powered offense or a great defense but none of that applies to the Longhorns. We’re not asking the Mean Green to do anything remarkable here. We’re asking them to show up and play the methodical style that they always play. Charlie Strong inherited a Texas team with a lot of bad habits so it’s likely going to take more than one off-season and several punishments to trust this team as a heavy favorite this early. We wouldn’t even be surprised if the Longhorns didn’t score 27 points, let alone cover 26½.
LSU -4½ -over Wisconsin
LSU comes in ranked #13 in the country while the Badgers come in ranked #14. In a neutral site game with two evenly matched teams, according to the rankings, the points may look appealing but we don’t see it that way at all. Is it even possible that a team like LSU, with the pedigree they have possessed over the years can be considered under the radar? In previous seasons we would say no but this year, with Georgia, Auburn and Alabama garnering all the SEC attention, the Tigers are indeed being overlooked. Why? Well for starters, LSU has had a mad evacuation of top talent over the past two years. In fact, LSU has lost 17 underclassmen to the NFL draft the past two cycles but all that does is show us how strong they are at recognizing talent and recruiting it. These Tigers players and youngsters were recruited to step in and play immediately. Furthermore, the Tigers possess the best OL in the SEC with a strong stable of running backs and they are in good shape behind center with Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings. Incidentally, ESPN analyst and national recruiting director Tom Luginbill, who covered Harris in the Under Armour game, said his arm is in the top three for the past decade. “He’s a great kid with a high ceiling,” he said. “He’s a superior talent to Jennings, but he hasn’t played yet.
Back to RB’s for a second. LSU's Leonard Fournette has not played a down of college football but he’s been compared to Michael Jordan for his determination and to Adrian Peterson’s physique as a teenager. Said one scout, “I’ve never seen a freshman like him”. Never.” In addition to Fournette, Malachi Dupre and Trey Quinn are expected to be in the receiver’s rotation. Jamal Adams is a defensive back who isn’t getting enough buzz because of the offensive guys. The Tigers have loaded up again so don’t make the mistake of undervaluing them.
It is of our humble opinion that Wisconsin is going to suffer the loss of several key players a lot more than LSU will. Wisconsin is even younger than LSU in many spots, with 25 seniors lost from last season's squad. Most importantly, the Badgers are replacing the entire starting front seven on defense. That’s a huge mismatch in LSU’s favor. Wisconsin’s rebuilt unit could be in for a long day against LSU's downhill rushing attack that will feature four outstanding tailbacks. That depth at RB also ensures that fresh legs are always on the field. The Badgers top 4 WR's from last year are gone, and two that were considered to get significant playing time, Robert Wheelwright and Jazz Peavy are injured. James White is also gone, so Wisky could be one dimensional to a degree. Most see this one as a nail-biter that will come down to the wire but from our vantage point we see the far superior recruiting class of LSU taking it to the Badgers right from the start. The window to buy-low on LSU isn’t going to last long.
Tony Stoffo
Colorado vs. Arizona
Play: Over 8.5
With Tyler Matzek getting the start here against Vidal Nuno sets up as a higher scoring affair and a highly recommended play on the over here tonight between the Rockies and D-Backs. What really adds to this over play is that tonight's home plate umpire Paul Schrieber has seen the over be the winning side in 11 of the last 13 times be called balls and strikes.
Jeff Alexander
Arizona Diamondbacks -137
The Rockies are 19-46 in their last 65 overall, 11-40 in their last 51 road games and 18-43 in their last 61 road games versus a left-handed starter. They are 2-11 in Matzek's last 13 starts and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts. Nuno has pitched well of late, giving up 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. He should be able to handle a Colorado lineup that is without its two best weapons. The Rockies are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings and 18-41 in the last 59 meetings in Arizona.
Scott Delaney
My free play is on San Diego State, laying a big number to Northern Arizona. I don't care how big this number appears, coach Rocky Long will have his Aztecs fired up for this one, and they won't disappoint. The Lumberjacks made the drive down from Flagstaff, Arizona, and probably should have stuck with Division I-A foes, because this is the wrong team to mess with this season.
Long was not too happy with the schedule makers about his road schedule, and it was quite evident when he met with media at Mountain West Media Days. You could hear it in his voice, and certainly detect the snarkiness about the times between road games.
All this is relevant, because he wants his team to take advantage of its home schedule and run it up on them.
One of his assistants said specifically that Long has plans of running it up when he can, to give his team confidence for down the road, letting them know they can win big before hitting the road for such games as: North Carolina, Oregon State, Fresno State and Boise State.
Look for the Aztecs to show no mercy in this one.
4♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Navy Midshipmen over Ohio State plus a ridiculous 16 or more points.
No Braxton Miller, no offense. Ohio State replaces most of their offensive line, two of their receivers and their best RB... and now they replace a senior QB with a red-shirt freshman and we're supposed to believe they will cover 16 points on the road?
Please!!
They'll be lucky if they win the game SU because I don't have a lot of faith in this defense. Remember, it was the lack of a defense that cost them a win in the Big 10 Championship game against Michigan State and then again in the Orange Bowl against Clemson.
How are we to believe Ohio State is going to score 16 points... let alone stop a Navy wishbone offense from scoring any points?
Remember, Navy QB Keenan Williams set an NCAA record last year with 31 rushing TD --- the most ever in the history of college football. He even set his own personal record with seven rushing TDs in a game against San Jose State last year. And this kid's a junior??
Not sure who wins this game SU, but the 16 points is a slap in Navy's face! Take the Midshipmen plus the points in a basic home game against Ohio State as your free play of the day.
2♦ NAVY
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Arkansas plus the points over Auburn.
Things could not have gone much better for Gus Malzahn and Auburn last season, as they came mighty close to pulling off the upset win over Florida State for the National Championship. Conversely, things could not have gone much worse for Bret Bielema in his first season at Arkansas, as the Hogs were taken to the wood shed with regularity.
While the Tigers won't lose outright in this game, I am willing to wager they also will not cover as the big favorite at home.
QB Nick Marshall faces some time on the bench for the start of this game, and in reality that should not be much of a factor in the outcome of this game.
I just believe that last season is in the past, and the new season gives everyone eternal hope. Arkansas has to be be better than they were last year, and while that may not win them this game, I think it is enough for them to cover this game.
Let's take the points with the Hogs.
2♦ ARKANSAS