Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Purdue vs. CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Purdue +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bearcats get Tommy Tubberville, so slowly say goodbye to your winning ways Bearcat fans! That being said Purdue has managed back to back Bowl Game appearances and head coach Hazell has done a nice job of getting Purdue back on the map. This line opened at 14 and dropped to 10 before settling at 11 late in the week, with the money coming in on Cincy this week. I disagree totally with the move back up off the fall number of 10, and had previously bet this at +14 on the Cantor futures. Rob Henery is a solid QB but they have a frosh superstar in Danny Etling (remember that name !) should he falter, and RB Akeem Hunt is serviceable and is backed up by 2 solid fill ins and word is that frosh Keyante Green has impressed.
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Cincy switches from the spread attack to a pro style offense under Tubberville so there is a learning curve there. Anytime you install a new system and coaching staff there is some adjustments to be expected and laying this type of number, even with Cincy having a good QB and veteran OL, I think Purdue will come in here and put up a fight in a game that quite frankly can go either way by 3 to 6 points, the value is in the line.
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Kentucky vs. Western KentuckySERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Kentucky -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a neutral site game taking place at LP Field in Nashville. Kentucky is coming off a dreadful 2-10 season, its worst campaign since going 2-9 back in 2004. Gone is former head coach Joker Phillips and in is Mark Stoops who most recent held the defensive coordinator job at Florida St. His main priority will be to turn around a defense that struggled by allowing 391 ypg and 31 ppg and he should be the man to do it. His defenses at Florida St. third and second over the last two seasons and while the talent is not nearly as good in Kentucky, he will get the most out of his players. Stoops brought in Neal Brown to take over the offense after having a lot of success as offensive coordinator at Texas Tech the last three years. The Wildcats have 14 starters back, seven on each side of the ball, and the young players that saw action last year will benefit from that experience. Western Kentucky was very successful last year as it went to its first ever bowl game. The Hilltoppers did not come away with the win as they were without head coach Willie Taggart who left to become the head coach at USF. They hired Bobby Petrino to take over and he is the big name coach that can give this team that annual recruiting edge. Western Kentucky also brings back 14 starters from last year's 7-6 team but it will not be sneaking up on anyone this season like it did a year ago. The Hilltoppers do possess one of the best running backs in the conference in Antonio Andrews but they do have to replace their quarterback. On the other side of the ball, the entire front four will be new and the already average defense is expected to take a step back. This is a revenge game for Kentucky as it lost at home to the Hilltoppers in overtime by a point despite outgaining them in the process. Even with that loss, this is still the SEC against the SBC and the talent difference is still fairly large. Look for the Wildcats to get their revenge and open the Stoops era with a momentum building victory.
Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama vs. Virginia TechFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Virginia TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I won with the Tide in each of the last two BCS championship games and obviously have much respect for them.
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That said, this line looks a little high ...SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Obviously, the Hokies have fallen upon hard times the last couple of years. They're not without talent though.
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This is about as big as it gets for the Hokies. An ESPN game vs. the 2-time defending champs. On the other hand, while they get an open date next, the Tide have an even bigger game up next, as they'll face Texas A@M (the only team that beat them last year) on 9/14.
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While scoring an upset here is obviously going to be a major challenge, the Hokies are the type of team that believes it can play with the champs. They've got experience at the QB position and I look for them to put up a bigger fight than most will be expecting. At 21 or better, take a look at grabbing the points.
Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU vs TCUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While one primetime battle on Saturday promises to be a shootout (Georgia/Clemson), expect far fewer points to be scored in Cowboys Stadium when LSU takes on TCU. Both programs are known for traditionally having stout defenses and I don't think this year will be any different. Take the Under.
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LSU enters 2013 somewhat under the radar, at least by their lofty standards. For the first time in three years, they enter a game ranked outside the AP Top 10. According to said rankings, they are actually the SIXTH best team in the SEC, trailing Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Florida. But I feel they are being undervalued. Last year's defense gave up more than 22 points in a game only one time. Granted, they have lost a ton of talent to the NFL from that unit, but they don't rebuild, they reload in Baton Rouge under Les Miles. On offense though, I have some concerns. Running back Jeremy Hill may or may not play here due to an off-season arrest. The passing game ranked near the bottom of the country last season. As a result, Cam Cameron has been brought on as the new offensive coordinator. On his resume is a 1-15 season with the NFL's Miami Dolphins. He was dumped as the OC last year in Baltimore and all the Ravens did was go on to win the Super Bowl.
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TCU is a contender in the wide open Big 12. They bring back nine starters on the defensive side of the ball, which has been a strong suit under Head Coach Gary Patterson. From 2008-10, the Horned Frogs finished #1 in total defense nationally each season, becoming only the third program in history to do that three consecutive seasons. Here they will be facing an LSU Offense that averaged just 17.2 PPG away from home last season and 278.4 yards per game. This number just seems too high for a pair of programs that traditionally bring it defensively.
John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Massachusetts at WisconsinFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 53 points will be scored in this mismatch of teams. This game is a mismatch, but the public is betting the 'OVER' with an irrational exuberance that is exceeding more than 70% of all wagers made. Whenever I have a play graded as a 3* or higher play and the betting si this extreme to the OPPOSIE side, it serves top reinforce the play and my confidence in the projected outcome. SIM projects that UMASS will have less than 50 rushing yards. In past games, where the Wisconsin defense has allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards, the 'UNDER' has gone 10-3 since 1992. The Badgers have no need to run up the score on the Minutemen and I see this as a 38-3 type of game. This is not a recommendation to take the points at 44 1/2 either.
Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brigham Young vs. VirginiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brigham YoungFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Few teams fielded a defense capable of dominating games the way the Cougar's did in 2012. Perhaps the most impressive display came in an epic battle with Boise State on September 20, that resulted in the Broncos winning 7-6 when BYU missed a 2-point conversion.
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Another thing that was glaringly obvious in that game was that the Cougar's offense was holding the team back. Riley Nelson was playing through injuries, and he finished the season with just 13 touchdowns, and as many INTs.
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The offense was at it's best with Taysom Hill at quarterback, and he'll take the reigns in 2013. He completed 24 of 36 attempts, with a TD and an INT in a 6-3 win over the USU Aggies last year. He added 80 yards on the ground in that game, an impressive performance against one of the top defenses in the country.
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The Cougars open the season on the road versus Virginia, and this isn't an easy matchup by any means. The Cavs though are coming off a disappointing 4-8 campaign last year, and that has resulted in bringing in new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
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The defense should be solid with all four starters returning in the secondary, led by all-star candidate Demetrious Nicholson at cornerback.
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The passing game was the Achilles heel last season, and there is no reason to expect it to get any better this year.
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This is a nightmare matchup for Virginia, and it's unlikely they will get anything going offensively against this Cougar's defense.
Will RogersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rice @ Texas A&MFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Rice 1st HalfFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a first half play on the Rice Owls, plus the points, against Texas A&M. I realize that in lieu of the Johnny Manziel suspension, this seems like a pretty "square" wager. But I happen to think it's a wise one as well.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. No Johnny Football - Uh, this sounds like a good place to start. In case you've spent your summer in Siberia, Manziel will not play in the first half Saturday as a result of his role in (multiple?) autograph signings where he may or may not have actually received cash. Way to go, NCAA. Regardless, the loss of Manziel is going to have a negative effect on the A&M offense. Head Coach Kevin Sumlin has been his usual tight-lipped self over who will get the starting nod, but whether it's Matt Joeckel (Luke's brother) or freshman Kenny Hill, there will be obviously very little or no experience at all under center.
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2. Rice Is Good - Everyone keeps saying that the Aggies wouldn't have even needed Manziel to beat Rice. This is probably true, but give the Owls some credit. This is a team that went 7-6 last season and blew out Air Force 33-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl. They have 19 returning starters, tied for the most in the entire country. With Tulsa looking as bad as they did Thursday, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Rice playing in the Conference USA Championship Game.
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3. X-Factor - The pressure is going to be on A&M this season like no other season in the program's history. I expect a sluggish start that allows Rice to hang around for most of the game. With the Aggies playing Alabama in two weeks (host Sam Houston St next week), Sumlin isn't going to try much here.
Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Michigan vs. MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Central Michigan +31½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Central Michigan is a fine MAC team under Dan Enos with an excellent offense. They are off a 7-6 campaign including in a 24-21 victory in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Tackle Eric Fisher was selected as the first pick in the NFL Draft! Junior wideout Titus Davis was one of the top receivers in the MAC as a sophomore, racking up 860 yards and eight TDs on 43 receptions. The Chippewas are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big Ten and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf. They will be up for this game, while Michigan has a showdown with Notre Dame on deck. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in August, so grab the underrated visitors.
Strike Point SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Penn State / Syracuse Under 51.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This total is way too high. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see these two teams combine for less than 40 points let alone getting all the way into the 50s. Both teams are trotting out new quarterbacks, and they both have a solid defense. The Orange will rely heavily on their ground game this season as they return both running backs from last season, both of which ran for over 100 yards in their Bowl victory. Syracuse and Penn St. will both try and control the flow of this game, which will lead to much lower scoring than Vegas thinks. Between the ground game of the 'Cuse, and the solid defense for both teams, the under is the play.
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Syracuse averaged 30 points a game last season, but that was with Ryan Nassib, who is one of the career passing leaders in Syracuse history as well as a receiving corps that has all-time stats to their credentials as well. Both Nassib and the WRs have moved on, and the 'Cuse will be searching for answers on the offensive side of the ball. The under will be easy money in this game as I see a 21-17 final.
Jason SharpeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati -10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both programs debut new head coaches here in this one. Cincinnati will go with a sixth-year quarterback under center and the top offensive line in CFB. Those are the kind of teams that won't be intimidated or nervous here in their season openers. The Bearcats have quietly built a very strong program with back-to-back 10-win seasons. In fact, they were just a combined 16 points away from a perfect season last year as they were within a touchdown in all three of their losses. Cincinnati ended the season on a point spread tear, covering six of their last seven games. They have also gone 6-1 against the number their last seven nonconference games and are 6-2 ATS their last eight home contests.
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Purdue will be going through some major changes this season as they are going a completely different direction with no-nonsense head coach Darrel Hazell running the show. The Boilermakers have dropped seven of their last 10 games against the spread and were soundly beaten nearly every time they stepped up in class last season in the Big Ten, losing by 19 at home to Michigan, by 24 at home to Wisconsin and by 25 at home to Penn State. They did manage to take Ohio State to overtime in Columbus before losing that one by seven.
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This game is much bigger here for Cincinnati as they have a lot of veterans on this team, and these are the kind of guys who expect to win their home opener. Purdue doesn't have the firepower to keep this one close. Play Cincinnati here. I have started off the first four weeks of each CFB season on fire, winning at a 60% win rate combined during this time. I am fired up again for this year and have a big card to kick things off this opening week. It's the best time of the year to be ahead of the betting market, and I showed that last season with a 7-0 Week 2 in CFB and am expecting a lot of the same things this year as well.
Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Temple vs. Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Notre Dame -29½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a big game for the Irish after getting embarrassed by Alabama in the national title. HC Brian Kelly knows that a blowout win will silence the critics and erase the memory of that ugly loss to the Crimson Tide. The Irish get the perfect opponent to wax as Temple is in their first year under new HC Matt Rhule along with a pair of new coordinators. Notre Dame will run the ball all over the poor Temple rush defense while the Irish defense will stifle the weak Owls’ offense. Notre Dame can name the score in this game on Saturday afternoon.
Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisiana Tech vs. NC StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Louisiana Tech +14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dave Doreen comes over from Northern Illinois to NC State to take over a very thin roster with only 12 starters returning. Mike Glennon left for the NFL from the QB position and they will have to replace a total of 4 starters with 137 total starts along the offensive line. With a new QB and new offensive line with a first time OL coach, I expect this group to run the ball a lot and the fact that LA Tech returns their 4 starters up front and hired a defensive minded coach in Skip Holtz leads me to believe that they will set NC State up with a lot of 3rd and longs on Saturday. NC State just returns guys at the wrong position as they return 5 of their top 6 on the defensive line but they were ranked 88th in adjustment line yards while their secondary has to be completely rebuilt.
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LA Tech offense has to replace a lot of guys, but with a 4* recruit taking over at QB and a running back in Kevin Dixon along with a lot of backfield depth this team should avoid the turnovers early in the season, run the ball effectively and avoid blowouts. The defense weakness is in the secondary, but I don't expect it to show against NC State.
Joe Duffy
Texas-San Antonio vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico -3
For many of you this will be your 26th straight year of winning with Joe Duffy's Picks. For the rest of you, the actuary says you can start a 20-plus year run now. Few in the history of the world can say they have been a public winning full-time handicapper and gambler since the 1980s. What a sensational college football card Saturday from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy. A stunning 13 winners are in store including two highest rated Wise Guy plays.
The free winner from the pro gambler whose picks have been public since 1988 is to go with New Mexico (-3) Texas San Antonio. UTSA has beaten up on FCS but struggled against FBS squads such as New Mexico. They are a clear-cut Peter Principle team.
Senior defensive end Will Ritter has been suspended from all team activities indefinitely. This really hurts a team that is among the least experienced in the nation.
Ritter has played 18 games for the Roadrunners over two seasons. He has started 13. In 11 games last season, he started eight and made 26 tackles.
He was second on the team with 3 1/2 sacks and had 4 tackles for losses. Only offensive tackle Johnny Vizcaino is questionable for New Mexico. Home field advantage and a San Antonio team overrated because they beat up on the Little Sisters of the Poor.
Take the Lobos as home favorites.
Marc Lawrence
Buffalo at Ohio State University
Prediction: Buffalo
After last year’s 12-0 perfect season and a consensus No. 2 preseason ranking in the polls, there’ll be many a bettor that will turn a blind eye to the pointspread and back the Bucks every week. Not us. Just as a ‘Tom Ford’ label inside a suit coat means you’ll be paying an inflated price, so too does the name ‘Urban Meyer’ ensure that the linesmaker can get away with tacking on a few extra points to the number. And after finishing 2012 without a loss – despite being outyarded on four different occasions and allowing 360 YPG on defense – that price will climb even higher. Yes, we realize Meyer brings a slew of good numbers into this fray (namely 31-9-1 ATS versus non-cons), and he did coach at Bowling Green, but the truth of the matter is he is only 6-6 as a favorite of more than 26 points, and was only 8-10 ATS against fellow MACers in his days at BGSU. Today’s sacrificial lambs from western New York have put up some decent numbers of their own: 4-0 ATS Game One, 4-0 ATS as dogs of 30 or more points, and 3-1 ATS in their last four rumbles with the Big Ten. Buffalo also returns 17 starters – including stud RB Branden Oliver, on this year’s preseason Doak Walker watch list – to open the season and our tireless database tells us that 17-returning starter underdogs of 27 or more points are 18-5-1 ATS in season openers since 1990. That’s enough to put us on the dog against what we consider to be a vastly overrated Bucks squad, one whose on-the-field numbers last year came nowhere close to matching their undefeated season. Buffy the Buckeye slayer? Not a chance… but the Bulls will exit Columbus with the cash. We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.
Vegas ConnectionFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas State at So MississippiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Texas StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last year Texas St opened at Houston and won as a 36 point underdog. Coach Franchone (ex Ala, A&M, NM) S Miss lost every game last year 0-12 they will be improved quite a bit for another new HC Monken. But must take the points in what should be a a game that goes to the wire.