Fezzik
TCU / LSU Under 50
BOTH of these coaches have a long history of playing it safe in big games, and relying on their defenses. We have seen a large increase in scoring in CFB, but I just cannot believe these two veteran coaches are suddenly going to join the no huddle, push the pace party that is getting more common in CFB. I fully expect a snoozer here. 1h UNDER 24.5 is solid also.
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Georgia vs. ClemsonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Take: Clemson +2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In a game that will have National Title implications, the Georgia Bulldogs will travel to Death Valley to take on the Clemson Tigers. Clemson will be looking for its’ second straight win against an SEC team after beating LSU in a bowl game to end their 2012 season while Georgia enters the game knowing they basically gave a way a chance to beat Bama in the SEC Title Game. This one looks to be a shootout with a posted total as we type this in the 71-72 range. Clemson has a dynamic play maker in Sammy Watkins and they have been excellent ATS on their home turf covering 9 of their past 13 contests. Mark Richt is a coach we look to play against anytime we can and today seems like as good a spot as any. We’re also in the Aaron Murray is overrated camp so put another mark on the Clemson side. It’s going to be very loud in Death Valley, and we look for the Tigers to defend their home turf with an outright win over Georgia.
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Georgia at ClemsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ClemsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Georgia Bulldogs are a mess in the secondary and Tajh Boyd and the Tiger receiving corps led by Sammy Watkins ought to have little trouble burning it on a consistent basis. Several on Georgia's defensive 2-deep have seen very little action. The defensive backfield has seven players on the injury list. One will miss the game due to suspension, one is out because of an ACL injury, three are listed as questionable, and two are listed as probable. The "Dawgs" are really hamstrung at the safety position, starting a true freshman in place of a couple of departed safeties from last year. While I like UGA QB Aaron Murray, I just don't believe his defense is going to slow Clemson down enough to win this game. The Tigers head into this one on an 8-2, 80% ATS run and I believe they'll put another in the win column on Saturday. I'm recommending a play on Clemson, plus the points.
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Buffalo at Ohio StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Ohio StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buckeyes were the lone undefeated team last season, going 12-0 under new head coach Urban Meyer (although OSU was banned from bowl play) and we'll back them to win big and cover this huge number in their season opener this afternoon. Ohio State showed no mercy last year at home against Miami Ohio crushing them 56-10 and for a Heisman-hopeful quarterback like Braxton Miller, this Buffalo opponent is the perfect chance to pad his stats. Buckeyes will be missing a few players due to suspensions, but even with those losses they still have huge skill advantages at nearly every position on the field and shouldn't be challenged on either side of the ball. Buckeyes jump out to a huge lead and don't let up in a blowout win and cover.
Jimmy Boyd
Nebraska -30
Nebraska should start their season off with a very big game against Wyoming. The Cowboys defense gave up 32.8 points per game on the road last season, while Nebraska scored an average of 41 points per game at home. The Huskers defense held opponents to 16.1 points per game in home games, and Wyoming will certainly be one of the worst teams they face.
The Cowboys offense averages 25.8 points per game, but most of their scoring was done against Mountain West opponents. They did not face the likes of a Nebraska team that finished with one of the best defenses in the Big Ten. Last year Nebraska scored 34.8 points per game and played a very difficult schedule. This matchup against Wyoming should reflect the dramatic difference in talent these teams possess.
Rob Vinciletti
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Arkansas
Play: Louisiana-Lafayette +10
The Cajuns have covered 14 of 15 as a road dog the past few seasons and Arkansas qualifies in a system that has won 26 of 33 times since 1990 that plays against game one double digit favorites that won 5 or less games last season, vs an opponent that won 4 or more games. The line is usually too high in these games and our dog has a tendency to stick around. The Razorbacks have a new coach in Bret Bilema. Arkansas was 0-4 ats as a home favorite last year and lost to LA. Monroe as a 30 point favorite. The Cajuns were a 9 win team last season, their 2nd straight and have covered 8 of 9 in the first of back to back road games. Look for them to hang around in this game in a classic win and no cover situation for Arkansas.
Black Widow
UMass +45
The UMass Minutemen are simply catching too many points Saturday against a Wisconsin team that will have a hard time scoring 45 points, which will make it difficult to cover this 45-point spread. Sure, Wisconsin has won 17 straight home openers at Camp Randall, but they have only come by an average of 19 points/game. The Badgers barely escaped with a 26-21 win in their home opener against Northern Iowa last year despite being a 40-point favorite. This is an offense that only put up 29.6 points and 393 total yards per game last year, and now it loses leading rusher Montee Ball (1,830 yards, 22 TD). The defense loses five of its top eight tacklers, including Mike Taylor (123 tackles, 15 for loss) and Devin Smith (57 tackles, 4 INT). While UMass was 1-11 last year, only two of its losses came by more than this margin of 45 points. Take UMass and the points.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers -170
The Tigers have the clear advantage on the mound with Sanchez. The right-hander has been lights out at home where he is 7-2 with a 2.27 ERA. The Tigers are 6-1 in his last 7 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus division opponents. Cleveland's Kazmir is 2-5 on the road where he has a 4.01 ERA this season. The Indians are 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a road underdog. Sanchez has a 1.88 ERA in 6 starts versus Cleveland while Kazmir has a 3.73 ERA in 12 starts versus Detroit. The Tigers 3-0 in Sanchez's last 3 starts versus the Indians. Also, the Indians are just 6-20 in the last 26 meetings. Take the Tigers.
Jack Jones
Penn State -8½
Head coach Bill O’Brien did a tremendous job at Penn State last season. He was handed down several NCAA sanctions that had nothing to do with him, and all he did was get his team to fight through it and win eight games. Now, with 14 returning starters, the Nittany Lions should be strong once again in 2013.
The offense boasts eight returning starters, including leading rusher Zach Zwinak (1,000 yards, 6 TD) and electrifying receiver Allen Robinson (77 receptions, 1,013 yards, 11 TD). The defense returns six starters from a unit that allowed just 19.1 points per game last season. Considering only four defensive starters returned last season, the Nittany Lions have an excellent chance to improve upon last year's impressive numbers.
Syracuse is in a world of hurt this year with the loss of head coach Doug Marrone and the school’s all-time leading passer, Ryan Nassib, who has thrown for 9,190 yards in his career here. Marrone has bolted for the NFL to be the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. He didn’t leave the cupboard very full considering only 12 starters and 40 lettermen return. Also gone are Nassib’s top two receivers in Alec Lemon (72 receptions, 1,070 yards, 7 TD) and Marcus Sales (64, 882, 8 TD).
This play falls into a system that is 25-4 (86.2%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against any team (SYRACUSE) – in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record.
The Nittany Lions are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games overall. Penn State is 23-3 against Syracuse since 1967 with four straight wins by an average of 23 points per game. Bet the Nittany Lions Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
New York Mets +140
The Mets took Game 1 3-2, and they have a good opportunity to earn the series victory Saturday with Wheeler on the hill. The youngster has been outstanding on the road where he's 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts. The Mets are 5-0 in his last 5 road starts and 8-2 in his last 10 starts overall. Haren has looked much better of late, but he was roughed up in his last start and still carries a 5.22 ERA at home. The Nationals are 2-5 in his last 7 home starts and 4-13 in his last 17 starts overall. Bet the Mets.
John Martin
New Mexico -3
Playing against teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTSA) that has a winning record last season, which is playing a team that is coming off a losing season, and it's a non-conference game, have gone 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the past 10 years.
Jim Feist
Central Michigan vs. Michigan
Play: Central Michigan +31½
Central Michigan is a fine MAC team under Dan Enos with an excellent offense. They are off a 7-6 campaign including in a 24-21 victory in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Tackle Eric Fisher was selected as the first pick in the NFL Draft! Junior wideout Titus Davis was one of the top receivers in the MAC as a sophomore, racking up 860 yards and eight TDs on 43 receptions. The Chippewas are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big Ten and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf. They will be up for this game, while Michigan has a showdown with Notre Dame on deck. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in August, so grab the underrated visitors.
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Wyoming at NebraskaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Flying comfortably under the radar once again is Wyoming, which is good news for those who recognized the Cowboys' ongoing prowess (15-4 vs. the number!) in a profitable road underdog role since HC Dave Christensen arrived in 2009. And the dynamics look much the same in 2013, with another lively offense led by vastly underrated jr. QB Brett Smith, a surprise star at the offseason Manning Passing Academy who welcomes back all of his top receiving targets after tossing 27 TD passes (with just six picks) LY. Granted, chances of a Wyo upset at Lincoln are remote due to a leaky stop unit (ranked 106th LY) that is counting upon several juco reinforcements to plug the many leaks in the defensive dike, which figure to be exploited (perhaps ruthlessly) by Nebraska's potent "O" and sr. QB Taylor Martinez. But Bo Pelini also in heavy rebuild mode with Husker "D" that disappeared often LY. With gunslinger Smith likely firing live ammo for 4 Qs, the backdoor should be wide open again for Cowboys. Lots of offense both ways also suggests this game reaches the 70s and perhaps nudges into the low 80s.
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Buffalo vs. Ohio StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Ohio State -34.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OSU has a weaker schedule this year, opening up against the Buffalo Bulls. This will be a quick beating from the start, Braxton Miller has a great game, and will have a breakout season, and is certainly ready to go. MAC opponents haven’t faired well vs OSU, and this remains. Buckeyes win behind the heart of the team, who was good for 28 total TDs in 2012. Look for a 52-7 type of score.
Art Aronson
Seattle vs. Houston
Pick: Over
Dallas Keuchel (5-7, 4.82 ERA) gets the call for the Astros on Saturday. Keuchal is coming of a rare good start where he allowed zero runs on seven innings in a no-decision versus the Toronto Blue Jays. Keuchal gave up a combined 13 runs over his three starts before that game, lasting less than a combined 13 innings in that span. At home Keuchal has an ERA of 5.36 and has struggled just like the rest of the Astro team. Joe Saunders (10-13, 5.09 ERA) is coming off a rough performance in Texas where he allowed seven earned runs on seven innings in a loss. Hopefully you don’t have Saunders on your fantasy baseball team because he has allowed four or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Saunders has lost three straight decisions and five of his last six. In his career versus the Astros, the veteran right-hander has allowed 18 earned runs in 29 2/3’s innings pitched. The Astro’s were shut down yesterday and will likely be looking to put up some runs.This line is pretty low in the hitter friendly park of Minute Maid. I Strongly consider taking the "over."