Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 9

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Green Bay at Tennessee
The Packers head to Tennessee tonight for their preseason opener against the Titans. Green Bay is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2)

Game 275-276: Cleveland at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.331; Detroit 125.739
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Under

Game 277-278: Pittsburgh at NY Giants (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 120.116; NY Giants 124.605
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

Game 279-280: Green Bay at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 123.981; Tennessee 121.292
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+2); Over

Game 281-282: Houston at Arizona (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 124.306; Arizona 121.677
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Under

CFL

Ottawa at Calgary
The REDBLACKS head to Calgary tonight to face a Stampeders team that is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 August games. Calgary is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 20 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-13)

Game 127-128: Ottawa at Calgary (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 101.448; Calgary 121.975
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 20 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Calgary by 13; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-13); Under

WNBA

Minnesota at Phoenix
The Mercury (25-4 SU) play host to a Minnesota team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games versus teams with a winning SU record. Phoenix is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5)

Game 651-652: Minnesota at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 116.980; Phoenix 124.357
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7 1/2; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 160
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5); Over

DAVE COKIN

MIAMI MARLINS AT CINCINNATI REDS
PLAY: MIAMI MARLINS

No price on this game as I’m writing this, but the Marlins will definitely be the underdog. It’s the very unexpected return to the big leagues for old pro Brad Penny. He’s back with the team he started his major league career with all the way back in 2000. Penny is clearly not going to be a savior for the Marlins. He’s not the pitcher he once was, and for the most part guys don’t suddenly get better as they get older. But Penny has been throwing it pretty well on the farm, and he’s being rewarded with a chance to pitch big league ball once again.

This is not a unique scenario. I’ve seen this many times in the past, where a pitcher who most everyone assumed had simply retired, suddenly resurfaces. Actually, while I can’t give any precise numbers, I think it’s fair to say that a decent percentage of these returns from the scrap heap have gone pretty well right at the outset. I would not be shocked if that’s the case here as well. I don’t think there’s much chance that Penny can do anything more than be a stopgap for a bit. But there’s just no question he’s going to be thrilled to be pitching in a game that counts, and the good news for Penny is that he’s facing a Reds lineup that hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball.

Alfredo Simon will throw for the home team, and he is in the midst of a substantial regression. Simon has been putting up mediocre grades for several starts now and I can tell you from the eye test he’s centering too many pitches of late and the hitters aren’t missing. Simon was one of the more remarkable first half stories in baseball, but it sure looks like reality has set in as the innings have piled up.

It’s also no longer hazardous to one’s wealth to take a chance on the Marlins when they’re wearing the road uniforms. This team was terrible for most of the season in away games, but of late they’ve picked it up with an 8-3 record in their last 11 as visitors. The offenses here are pretty close and there’s much separation as far as the bullpen data is concerned.

This is basically a one-shot play on Penny. I see him being very charged up for this appearance, and for what it’s worth, Penny has a rich history in this ballpark. Simon is fade material right now, and the price on the Marlins figures to be reasonably generous. As long as that’s the case, I’m going to give Penny and the Marlins a roll this evening.

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirate -161

The Pirates cashed Big for us last night as Our Top play. We will back them here against tonight as they fit another of Our Powerful League wide systems. We are playing on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less and are off a 1 run home favored win in a game where the total was 8 or less and they had 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits with no errors, and their opponent also scored 2 or less runs with 5+ hits. These home teams have won 21 of 29 since 2004. The Padres hit just .221 vs leftys and will face F. Liriano who is heating up with a 1.80 era in his last 3 starts. He has a solid 2.37 career Era vs San Diego. The Pirates have won 12 of 17 as a home favorite in this range and 15 of the last 21 vs losing teams. They are averaging 5.5 runs the past week. Pittsburgh takes another from San Diego.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Sleepyj

Tigers / Blue Jays Under 8

Max Scherzer will take to the mound after a solid last outing and taking a loss. Marcus Stroman will take to the mound for the Bluejays tonight as well. Scherzer is 13-4 on the season and has a 3.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. Stroman supports a nice 6-3 record with a ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.07. Two very solid pitchers here. I think the fact the Scherzer lost his last time out he will give max effort here tonight. Both teams have really struggled over the last week scoring runs. I don't think it will get much easier facing two of the teams best pitchers. Stroman is also off a loss and pitches much better at home. I think he will rebound here against a Detroit lineup that has had issues over the last few days. When the big bats for Detroit are hurting you gotta attack them. Stroman will look to do just that. Both pitchers can throw strikeouts and we love to see that when we have the under. Combined i think we see in the neighborhood of 12-14 strikeouts for both combined. We love to have two strikeout pitchers who can get out of jams as well with this play. The Bluejays have seen much less talent this week and have struggled themselves. They wont get any better facing Scherzer tonight. I really think this one stays under i can see a 5 or 6 run ga

Wunderdog

Green Bay @ Tennessee
Pick: Green Bay +2

Green Bay didn't have Aaron Rodgers for much of the 2013 season, but this offense still was deadly in so many ways at #6 in passing and #7 in rushing. The QB rotation is deep with Rodgers, Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien. The defense has upgraded the secondary and has a lot of talent and depth up front. Last year in their first preseason road game, the Packers rolled 19-7 at St. Louis. Tennessee has home field for this one, but has a weak defense and a rebuilding offense. QB Jake Locker won't play much, Charlie Whitehurst is marginal and Tyler Wilson and Zach Mettenberger have limited to no NFL experience. This defense was torched in preseason last year, allowing 22, 27, 16 and 23 points (going 1-3). They opened up at home last August and lost to Washington, allowing 359 yards (163 rushing) and the offense was 4-of-12 on third down. Take the Packers.

Sleepyj

Texans / Cardinals Under 37.5

Both teams come into this one with a big focus on defense. As we have seen in the Preseason points are hard to come by with 2nd and 3rd units in years past. There is little depth talent at QB in the 2nd and 3rd units for AZ and Houston's offensive weapons i believe will play a limited roll. The lack of star power and depth will limit these play makers to play in this first game more than a series or two. Houston will look to establish a rhythm on defense as will AZ, I think we see heavy doses of the run in this one as well. We have a potential to see 7 QBs in this one and i think the reps will be at a minimum for both sides. This may hurt some of the comfort in this game or lack to create some offense. I think this number is a shade high here. On paper this one looks like a bunch of players looking to help round out the rosters and focus on week 2 of the preseason and ahead.

Ben Burns

Chicago vs. Seattle
Play: Under 7½

In addition to this incredible August run that I'm on, I've also cashed Seattle each of the last two days as a free play. I don't necessarily like the Mariners as much today, but I do expect them to limit the White Sox scoring for a third consecutive game. That should lead to this game finishing Under the total.

The White Sox have scored just four runs so far against Seattle pitching. They scored just 1 run in the final two games of the Texas series. So this is a slumping lineup. The last four games against Seattle have seen them score a total of seven runs. I haven't seen any reason to expect any increase in scoring tonight. The Under is 6-2 the White Sox past 8 games after scoring 2 runs or less.

We haven't seen much this year from Seattle's James Paxton, but last Tuesday threw 4.2 innings and allowed just two runs. He has a 0.92 WHIP in his three starts, so it looks like another long night for the White Sox at the plate.

Though they exploded for 13 runs Thursday, Seattle scoring a ton of runs is far from guaranteed. Especially at home where they're hitting just .239 this year. The Mariners are 66-44-5 Under in all of their games this year, including 36-20-5 at Safeco Field.

White Sox starter Hector Noesi went seven innings his last start and allowed only one run, so he comes in fine form. 1* free play.

Jim Feist

Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Chicago White Sox +152

Chicago has a terrific offensive attack, 7th in baseball in runs scored and slugging, plus 12th in on base percentage. The team is 4-2 in the last six start made by Hector Noesi, who doesn't walk many and is a good strikeout pitcher. He has thrown 11 innings against Seattle this season and has not allowed a run, holding them to a .222 average. He is off a 5-3 win over Texas, allowing one earned run and four hits in seven innings. He was credited with a complete game because the game was called. The White Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter and they face southpaw James Paxton, who has a 5.40 ERA at home. The Mariners are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 38-15 in the last 53 meetings, plus 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Seattle.

Art Aronson

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Texas Rangers -163

The visiting Rangers are worth the price here with their best on the hill in Yu Darvish (10-6, 2.82), the right-hander held the Indians to one run over seven innings in his last start but didn’t factor into the decision. Note that Darvish is 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in eight games started against the Astros lifetime. The Rangers are also 6-2 in games against the Astros when Darvish was the starter. The home side will start Scott Feldman (5-8, 4.13 ERA) who is coming off his best start of the season; Feldman limited Toronto to one run run in a complete game win on Sunday. Note though that Feldman is an unremarkable 1-1 with a pedestrian 4.07 ERA in four starts versus the Rangers over his career. Texas was unable to hold on a lead yesterday but I think can bounce back here, Darvish has put together three quality starts in a row and doesn’t seem fazed that his team is one of the worst this season. The Astros meanwhile do not have a home field advantage with a 27-33 mark this year, and that’s just what the doctor ordered for the visitors as Texas is 12-5 at Houston the last three seasons. Lay the modest price to get the better pitcher.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Jimmy Adams

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -128

The Rays are off of a nice extra innings win against the Cubs Friday night. They’ll turn to prospect Jake Odorizzi to get them the victory in this one. Odorizzi came into the season with very high expectations. He didn’t put together many quality outings early on, but has since lived up to what we all though he’d do. He had a rough outing on Sunday, giving up 5 runs in the first inning against the hard hitting Angels. I won’t chalk this up to much, as prior to that outing he had a 2.25 ERA in his last 9 starts. Hitters batted .198 against him during that time period.

I can’t see Edwin Jackson lasting in the majors much longer, and certainly not as a starting pitcher. He already has 11 losses on the season behind a 5.66 ERA. Jackson is one of the worst pitchers in the majors right now, plain and simple. The Cubs will also be feeling the effect of that extra innings loss as they have to get up for an early start today. This sets up as a clear “down spot” for them.

Joe Maddon is one of the best managers in all of baseball. The way he approaches the game with his creativity is genius. He isn’t afraid to play an unorthodox style when the situation calls for it, even if it’s not technically “by the book.” Recently, Maddon has been focused on using the 9th hole in the order as virtually a second leadoff man. This strategy is designed to put two hitters back to back who have the best chance of getting on base. Obviously, this leads to more RISP for when the heart of the order comes up. Kevin Kiermaier has been this guy as of late, but we can trust that Maddon will use whoever has the best chance to give the Rays success. Batting practice for Tampa against the horrible Jackson in this one.

Jesse Schule

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -150

The Mets hung on for a 5-4 win last night, defeating the Phillies in the series opener at Citizens Bank Park. I like the home team's chances of evening the series tonight, when they send ace Cole Hamels to the mound.

Hamels (6-6, 2.42 ERA) allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings in a loss to the Nats his last time out. He has pitched very well the last few months, and he was 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA in July. Five of his six wins this season have come under the lights, and a night game in Philly looks like a favorable spot for the southpaw.

The Mets hand the ball to Dillon Gee, who has been terrible on the road. Gee (4-4, 3.73 ERA) surrendered a pair of runs on five hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the Giants his last time out. He's now winless in his last four starts, and he's 2-2 with a 4.40 ERA in five starts on the road so far. He hasn't performed well in night games, going 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA in seven starts under the lights.

To say that the Phillies have owned Gee, would be putting it lightly. Ryan Howard is 9-for-20 with six home runs and 14 RBIs lifetime versus the right-hander, and Jimmy Rollins has hit .480 with a pair of homers and five RBIs in 25 at bats.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Will Rogers

St. Louis vs. Baltimore
Pick: St. Louis

The Orioles won big at home on Friday night, chasing Justin Masterson from the game after just two innings. The Cardinals should be in better shape with John Lackey on the hill this afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Cardinals hand the ball John Lackey (12-7, 3.55 ERA) who did well in his debut game for St. Louis, defeating the Brewers in a 3-2 win where the veteran conceded two runs on seven hits over seven innings. He left Boston with his head held high as well, and is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA in his last four starts. The Orioles will counter with right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez (3-8, 4.52 ERA) who's last game was over a month ago. He was then torched by the Red Sox surrendering four runs on five hits over just 3 2/3 innings. He has just recovered from a sprained ankle, and is only 1-6 with a 5.29 ERA over nine starts at home this season.

2. Hot on the road - The Cardinals may not have an overwhelming away record going 28-28. They have looked better recently though, and are 4-1 in their last five road games as a favorite.

3. X-factor - Jhonny Peralta is 9-for-26 lifetime versus Jimenez, and is 2-for-6 in his last two games.

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Edges - Dodgers: Greinke 13-5 last eighteen team starts during August, including 4-0 the last four away, and 28 strikeouts and 2 walks last three starts. Brewers: 3-7 last ten games versus right-handers, and 7-11 last eighteen home games in this series. With the Los Angeles 13-6 on Saturdays, their best day of the week this season, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Anthony Michael

Cleveland Browns +2.5

The Browns have been excellent in the first game of the pre-season covering their last 4 NFLX openers. The Browns will have Johnny football get in some work and he will have the pleasure of working against the 2nd team Detroit defense which means none of their top D lineman and their backup corners who have to be pretty bad since their starters stink and they have to be better than the backups. Detroit will not have their offensive starts playing very long, look for the Browns to get this one.