Tony Stoffo
Steelers vs. Giants
Play: Over 37
With the Giants having a game under their belt I look for their offense to be a bit more in sink and I look for them to easily move the ball in this spot tonight. While the Steelers used more of the hurry up offense down the stretch last season and it sure worked for them. Saying this I can see them wanting to incorporate more of this style during this preseason which can turn some of their preseason games into higher scoring affairs. So with both teams wanting to push the pace here in my opinion makes for a higher scoring game and a highly recommended play on the over in this spot tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +115
I look for the Angels to come out extremely motivated after dropping their 4th consecutive game in last night's series opener against the Red Sox. Los Angels has a clear advantage on the mound, which is exactly what they need to break out of their slump. Boston will be starting Clay Buchholz, who has been absolutely awful over his last 3 starts with a 10.12 ERA and 2.125. Not all that surprising considering Buchholz has a 6.20 ERA and 1.613 WHIP over 18 starts on the season.
I look for Angeles to explode offensively and easily win here by 2+ runs with Garrett Richards on the mound. Richards bounced back from a couple of poor outings to threw a complete game shutout in his last start against the Dodgers. I fully expect Richards to carry over that strong performance against the Red Sox. Richards is 12-4 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.024 WHIP over 23 starts for a reason.
The Angels are 14-2 in Richards' last 16 home starts with a total set between 8 and 8.5 runs, winning by an average score of 6.3-3.7 and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 starts against an opposing starter who allows 7+ hits per start, winning by an average score of 6.9 to 3.4!
Steve Janus
Tampa Bay Rays -132
This is a great spot to back the Rays against the Cubs. Tampa Bay comes in off a thrilling 4-3 win in extras for their second straight victory and I see no reason why they won't keep it rolling against Chicago's Edwin Jackson. In 23 starts this season, Jackson has a miserable 5.59 ERA and 1.568 WHIP. The fact that Jackson allowed just 2 runs in his last start is actually a good thing, as they guy rarely puts back-to-back strong starts together. Which is evident by the fact that the Cubs are just 2-8 in last 10 starts following a quality start in his last outing.
Key Trends - Cubs are 9-24 in Jackson's last 33 starts, 4-13 in their last 17 games as a home underdog, 1-8 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series and 1-5 in their last 6 interleague home games. Tampa Bay is 7-0 in their last 7 road games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 9-1 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series and 10-2 in their last 12 versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
System - Any team (TAMPA BAY) - bad AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a below average NL starter (ERA= 5.20 to 5.70), with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season are 33-12 (73%) against the money line since 1997.
LineCatchers
Cleveland Browns + 1
This match up consists of two teams in very different situations. The Browns have everything to prove in 2014 and ail be looking to start that tonight in Detroit. The Lions behind new HC Jim Caldwell will sit a lot of regulars on Saturday night.
Brian Hoyer will start at QB tonight but I fully expect Johnny Manziel to play several series’ with the starters later on in the game. With Cleveland keeping their starters in the game for a longer period of time to give Manziel a chance to work on things he has learned in the off season, the Browns own a huge advantage tonight.
In NFL Pre-Season games, I always see value in teams with a point to prove and teams who have players battling for starting jobs. I believe the Browns fit that role tonight and will cover the (+1) spread.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Oakland A's over the Minnesota Twins on the run line.
This selection was much easier knowing that the Twins haven't beaten the Oakland A's yet this season, losing five straight this year including last night's 6-5 affair in which Oakland jumped out to a huge lead and held off a big Minnesota rally.
Last night's win helped them improve to 5-3 on this current homestand and pushed them four games out in front of the Angels for the division lead.
Today's pitching matchup includes Oakland righty Jeff Samardzija (4-8, 2.91 ERA) who settled for a no-decision on Monday after surrendering just two runs on five hits over seven innings. He's 2-1 in Oakland since being acquired with a 3.09 ERA.
Minny counters with Trevor May who was recalled from Triple-A Rochester to make his major league debut tonight. 17 starts, 8-6 record, 2.93 ERA and 91Ks over 95 innings in the minors.
He may end up being a good pitcher, but tonight is not the night to test that theory. Take the A's as your free play of the day.
3♦ OAKLAND -1.5
LT Profits
Washington vs Atlanta
Pick: Over 7
Tanner Roark had been a revelation for the Washington Nationals before his last start when he surrendered five earned runs in 6.1 innings to snap his streak of four straight starts of allowing exactly one run. He is still 11-7 with a 2.94 ERA for the season, but Roark usually pitches to contact with just 106 strikeouts and 30 walks in 141 innings, so you would prefer a better groundball rate than 44.1 percent and he has benefitted from a rather low BABIP of .269. Aaron Harang of the Atlanta Braves is the poster boy for regression as after his career appeared finished, he is 9-6 with a 3.41 ERA this season with a fastball averaging only 89 MPH. Remember that he had a fantastic start though and there is still room for more regression given his 4.18 xFIP. The ‘over’ is 7-3-1 in Roark’s last 11 road starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland (1st 5 innings) -105 over N.Y.Y
The Indians pen has been used extensively over the past four games so we’ll eliminate that and play Corey Kluber in the first five innings. All Kluber has done is put up some of the best numbers in the game over the entire season. In 166 innings, he has 177 K’s. Over his last five starts covering 40 innings, he has a BB/K split of 5/40 to go along with an elite 52% groundball rate. Kluber is the real deal facing a Yankees lineup that scares nobody.
Brandon McCarthy attracted very little attention when he was a Diamondback but he’s turned into a New York sensation almost overnight. The first couple of starts in his new digs, McCarthy’s strong performances didn’t really open any eyes because any pitcher can get hot for a start or two but after defeating the Tigers in his fifth start, the accolades started flying in his direction. McCarty has been the talk of baseball since that last start. He’s being interviewed by local media, radio stations and he’s being told that he was the shot in the arm that the Yankees needed badly. He now becomes a prime “sell-high” target. McCarthy has posted very good skills since coming over but let us remind you that New York is his sixth team in eight years and the only time his ERA was under 4.00 was when he pitched for Oakland for two years in that pitcher’s haven. Now that all the attention in the world has been thrown his way, it would come as no surprise if he blew up. Besides that, McCarthy can’t and should NEVER be favored over Kluber.
Washington -108 over ATLANTA
Tanner Roark has a 2.40 ERA at home this year and road ERA of 3.49. Thing is, he’s pitched much better on the road with a BAA of .221 with a BB.K split of 11/59 in 69.2 innings. Right-handed bats can't touch Roark’s slider. Over his last five starts he’s 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA and a BB/K split of 5/27 in 34 innings Roark is showing plenty of positive signs in his first full MLB season. He's tossed only two disasters all year and his command is in excellent shape. Increasing the strikeout total would be his next step and he’s getting closer with an increasing swing and miss rate of 10% over the past month. Roark should be viewed as a reliable starter moving forward and certainly a better option than Aaron Harang.
Harang gets this home start in this NL East showdown, as the Braves continue to try and shake off the effects of their disastrous road trip. Harang was not terribly effective in either of his two starts on that trip, and his 1H/2H skills split suggests that he is running out of gas after his hot start. his Apr-Jun skills were decent but since July 1 they’ve been horrible. Given the importance of the game to the Braves, Harang likely won't be left in long enough to take a serious pounding but when the promise of a quick hook is one of the only points in favor of the matchup, it's not a good sign.
CINCINNATI/Miami Over 8
Miami is taking a flyer on another veteran pitcher, Brad Penny. The last time Penny had positive results at this level was in 2007 and he's not pitched since the 2012 season, a year in which he posted an ERA of 6.11 and a 1.82 WHIP. Penny does have a chance of a resurrection because he’s just 36-years old but in 2012 he had a swinging strike rate of 5% and this is two years later. If Penny returns to anywhere near his old form, it won't be a total surprise, as he did so after being traded from Boston to San Fran in 2009. In a November 27th interview, Penny attributed his poor performance to a sore shoulder and limited recovery time outside of the offseason. There may be some truth to that but it doesn’t explain his 2011 5.38 ERA, his 4.88 ERA in 2009 or his 6.27 ERA in 2008 and all of those were in pitchers parks with the exception of 2009 when he pitched for Boston. Penny did make seven starts in the minors before this flyer and went 2-4 with a 3.05 ERA. Not bad, but this isn’t the minors and Great American Ballpark is not the best place for an old arm to make its first start in two years in. If Penny throws a beauty, good for him, we’ll send him a card but the more likely scenario is that he gets lit up for three or four runs and doesn’t make it past five innings. Oh, by the way, Penny makes Bartolo Colon look like Twiggy.
Then there’s the case of Alfredo Simon. After going almost three years without a MLB start, this 33-year-old career reliever has a 12-7 record, a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 22 starts. Fact or fluke? Simon has been helped by plenty of good luck (25% hit rate, 78% strand rate). His xERA of 4.19 points to some serious regression and that xERA is 5.84 over his last four starts. Simon’s BB/K split of 35/85 in 138 innings shows good control but also shows he’s not fooling anyone. Simon's age and skill profile cast doubt that he can finish strong and we’re also seeing serious signs that he’s running out of gas. Over his last four starts, covering 21 innings, Simon’s BB/K split was 7/10. On July 9, Simon defeated the Cubs to run his record to 12-3 with an ERA of 2.70. Four starts later he’s 12-7 with an ERA of 3.09. The regression continues here.
Pass CFL
Greg Shaker
Seattle -1.5 +120
Brief MLB Thoughts today and this one is easy for me to lay the 1.5 runs even though that is not what I do often. We do have severe advantages with this game especially with the starting pitchers with the White Sox thrower having poor numbers across the board and on the road even worse. Paxton is the Real Deal and can be as dominant as any thrower when he is on, which is just about all of the time. The Sox have not fared well verses Southpaws and especially when they have traveled and I don't see them doing so tonight. I can't lay the Huge Number of upwards of -180 but I can certainly see that Seattle has a High Probability of winning this one by 2 runs or more. That makes this an easy decision here..
Larry Ness
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
The New York Mets led 5-0 last night but almost let it slip away, as the Phillies scored three runs in the bottom of the 9th and got the tying run to third base, before the Mets held on for a 5-4 win, which gave Bartolo Colon his 200th career win. The Mets have clearly felt comfortable in the City of Brotherly Love, with 10 wins in their last 11 games at Citizens Bank Park.
Making it a second straight win tonight with Dillon Gee on the mound, may be tough. The 28-year-old returned from the DL to get a 4-1 home win over Atlanta back on July 9 but since then has allowed 21 hits, eight walks and 17 ERs over his last four starts (22.1 innings), posting an 0-3 record in four New York losses. He's 3-4 with a 6.71 ERA in 11 career starts against the Phillies (Mets are), going 2-2 with an 8.90 ERA in six at Citizens Bank Park.
The 52-64 Phillies are at the bottom of the NL East and already looking toward 2015. However, the Phillies have opted to hang on to Hamels, after he was selected by the Chicago Cubs off waivers earlier this week, only to have the 48-hour negotiating period expire without a deal, according to MLB's official website. The left-hander had already stated that he wanted to remain with the Phillies despite their struggles.
Philadelphia's only win in its last seven overall meetings with the Mets came with Hamels on the mound July 29. He had eight strikeouts in eight innings of that 6-0 road victory. That's part of a six-start stretch during which Hamels is 4-1 with a 1.24 ERA. He's allowed two earned runs with 33 strikeouts in 30 innings while winning three of his last four starts. Over his last 13 starts, he's allowed three ERs or less in EVERY one, including allowing two or less in 10 of the 13.
Rocketman
Detroit vs. Toronto
Play: Detroit -115
Detroit comes in with a 63-50 overall record this year while Toronto is now 61-56 overall on the season. Toronto now has a 1-6 record so far in the month of August. Detroit is allowing only 2.9 runs per game their past seven games overall. Toronto is 1-6 their past seven games overall where they are scoring only 2.4 runs per game. Max Scherezer has been a beast again this year with a 13-4 3.24 ERA overall, 5-3 with a 3.39 ERA on the road this season and 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA his last 3 starts. Scherzer has 171 strike outs compared to only 44 walks overall this year. Scherzer is 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA in his six starts overall vs Toronto in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit today!
Ross Benjamin
Cleveland @ New York
Play: Under 7
The Indians Corey Kluber has been one of the hottest starting pitchers in all of baseball over the last month. In his last 8-starts he's posted an exceptional performance line that includes a 1.31 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and just shy of an 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He's also seen 8 of his 9-starts in day games go under the total this season while posting a stellar 2.40 ERA.
The Yankees starter Brandon McCarthy has been revitalized since coming over in a trade from Arizona. He's gone 5-0 against the money with his new club while posting a superb 2.08 ERA. The Yankees hurler has also seen 4 of his 5-starts in day games this season go under the total, and he's certainly been a major contributor to those low scoring affairs. In those 5-starts he has a performance line that includes a 2.20 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
The Yankees have seen 22 of their 34-games this season go under the total when facing an opponent with a losing record. The Bronx Bombers have also seen just 35.7% of their 56-games at Yankee Stadium this season go over the total.
Brad Diamond
Giants vs. Royals
Play: Under 7
Saturday in Interleague play San Francisco visits Kansas City. The Royals have won 5 straight after securing a 4-2 win last night in game #1 of the series. Kansas City uses veteran RHP Shields (10-6) who has 3.43 ERA this season, an impeccable 1.71 ERA last three outings. Going for San Francisco is RHP Hudson (8-8) who has put together a super 2.74 ERA in 2014. Over his last three starts he improves with a 2.50 ERA. The Giants are 3-0-1 UNDER L4 starts by Hudson with four days of rest. Plus, San Francisco has a super 8-1-1 UNDER mark vs. a >.500 club on the interleague road. The Royals are 6-0 UNDER vs. a hurler with under a 1.15 WHIP (Hudson 1.14) and 5-1 UNDER with Shields in his last six starts when the total range is 7.0-8.5….UNDER!
Jack Jones
Tigers/Blue Jays Under 8
The Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays will take part in a pitcher's duel today. The Tigers have scored a combined 15 runs over their last six games for an average of 2.5 runs per game. The Blue Jays have scored a combined 17 runs over their last seven games for an average of 2.4 runs per game.
Detroit gives the ball to 2013 AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer today. The right-hander has gone 13-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 23 starts with 171 strikeouts over 153 innings. Scherzer is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three starts, and 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA in six career starts against Toronto.
Marcus Stroman has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues this season for Toronto. He has gone 7-3 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 12 starts and seven relief appearances. In the 12 starts, he has gone 6-3 with a 2.66 ERA. Stroman has been at his best at home, going 5-1 with a 1.54 ERA in seven starts.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Tigers last eight road games. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in Scherzer's last 20 road starts. The UNDER is 49-24-2 in Blue Jays last 75 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Stroman's last four starts overall.
Wunderdog
Cardinals at Orioles
Pick: Under 8.5
The St. Louis Cardinals fortified their rotation by acquiring Jon Lackey from the Boston Red Sox prior to the trade deadline. Lackey has had a very solid campaign where he owns a 12-7 record backed by a 3.55 ERA. Lackey has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 14 of his last 18 starts, and has done so in each of his last four starts. The Cardinals will face Ubaldo Jimenez, who has not had a great year, but St. Louis has had a punchless attack all season, especially on the road where they generate 3.5 runs per game. They have been further inhibited on the road when facing a right-hander, where 8 of their last 10 have failed to get to the total. The Orioles own a 12-3 mark to the UNDER in their last 15 vs. a winning team, and are 21-8-1 to the UNDER in their last 30 at home. Don't expect this one to get there, so make play the UNDER.
Ken Thomson
St Louis -107
Jimenez ( 0-5 ) with a ( 10.55 ERA ) in day baseball this season......until he shows he can change that, I'm on St. Louis with new guy John Lackey who has thrown well of late including a solid outing in his Cardinal debut in win over Brewers at Milwaukee. I will also play first five innings as well.....Jimenez just off DL may be solid bet in next nighttime start where his season ERA is under three.