River City Sharps
KC Royals -138
The Royals are simply the hottest team in baseball right now and send their ace, James Shields to the mound tonight as they face off with Tim Hudson and the San Francisco Giants. The Royals have posted a 13-3 record since the All Star break and Shields has been a big part of the success. He is 2-2 with a 1.99 ERA over his last six starts. Even though Hudson can be tough, we are riding the hot team in this spot.
Sam Martin
St Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles
Play: St Louis Cardinals
John Lackey is now a National League pitcher, but he knows this Baltimore Orioles lineup well from his time with the Red Sox and we'll back him against a tough-luck home pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez and the O's today. Jimenez for whatever reason is far better away from home this season, as he's just 1-6 with with 2-7 TSR and 5.30 ERA in his nine home outings.
Lackey has had success against Baltimore in his career, going 14-7 with a decent 3.70 ERA in 26 career meetings. He's also in good form right now going at least six innings and allowing 2 ER's or less in each of his last four games. With Baltimore crushing the Cards last night we look for St. Louis to come to the ballpark with a bit more motivation than normal, and control this one from the outset!
Cajun Sports
Steelers vs. Giants
Play: Over 37
The Giants take the field for the second time this preseason following their Hall of Fame Game win over the Bills to open the 2014 NFL campaign. Our Power Index Ratings favor Pittsburgh slightly in this game catching 3-points on the road. The focus for us is the total as the Power Index Ratings favor an Over position on the total. The Math Model projects total points scored average of 42.54 in tonight’s contest. The baseline TPR Index average has both clubs scoring better than 20 points apiece with Pittsburgh coming in with 22.82 points and the Giants posting 21.66 points. With solid support from our three preseason power index ratings calling for the Over we will make that our 2* NFLx Saturday Free Play of the Day.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland -105 over DETROIT
In his six years as Head Coach, Detroit’s Jim Caldwell is 2-10 in the preseason. In Week 1 of the preseason schedule, Caldwell is 0-3 and what that reveals is a coach who couldn’t care less about the scoreboard. The Lions run a complex offense that Caldwell will not reveal in the preseason. His main goal is to evaluate players, avoid injuries and just get through it. Matthew Stafford and the first team offense may see a series or two but after that it’ll be Dan Orlovsky, Kellen Moore and possibly James Franklin running the offense.
For the Browns, it’s a new year, new coaches and most importantly a new attitude. Cleveland hired Mike Pettine as their new head coach and he brings a strong pedigree to the table. Pettine is the son of famous Pennsylvania high school football coach Mike Pettine Sr. who compiled a record of 326-42-4 in 33 seasons, including four AAAA state championships, as head coach at Central Bucks High School West so winning games is in his blood. Before entering the NFL coaching ranks, Pettine was the head coach at North Penn. He led the school to 45 wins in five years including an 11-2 mark in 1999. Pettine will enter his 13th year in the NFL coaching ranks. He served as defensive coordinator with the New York Jets from 2009-12 overseeing a defense that finished in the top 10 in total defense each year. Pettine implemented a completely new defense that finished first in points allowed (14.8 points per game), total defense (252.3 yards per game) and pass defense (153.7 passing yards per game) in his first year with the Jets in 2009 as defensive coordinator. Prior to joining the Jets, Pettine was a member of the Baltimore Ravens’ coaching staff for seven years from 2002-08. In his last four seasons with the Ravens, he coached the outside linebackers as part of a defensive unit that ranked fifth (2005), first (2006), sixth (2007) and second (2008) in the NFL. Pettine believes winning starts with defense and he’ll institute that philosophy right off the bat. As a new Head Coach that is trying to establish and promote a winning attitude in Cleveland, Pettine figures to take this game seriously. Furthermore, the #1 QB job is up for grabs as Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel battle it out, which is another strong reason to back the Brownies. Mike Pettine is not fooling around. He has a great defense with depth and a battle for the #1 QB job with both guys intent on playing well and earning it. The preseason usually means very little but that is not the case for the Brownies in Week 1 and it provides us with a strong opportunity.
Bruno Bets
Tampa Bay vs. Chicago
Play: Over 7
Although I am not putting out any premium plays for the moment, I am going to resume "free" plays in an effort to get my routine back to as close to normal as possible.
Note that I am certainly not on any streak, but it has become a bounce here and there and that I can live with. I have not been able to avoid that "bad" inning and in my case, usually the 8th. I do want to make it clear that I am not hiding from this, but working diligently to straighten things out. In that vein, be sure to Do the Work. Have a safe and prosperous weekend, friends!
At first glance, this one appeared to be the "easy" one that generally scared the sh** out of me. The fact of the matter is that I'd have backed it before, so I am going to today. In Odorizzi, the Rays have a starter who has never fared well on the road and carries in a 5.73 road ERA. In Jackson, the Cubs have....well, Jackson. Both offenses, although not tearing it up, have been hitting decently. Hanging a seven up at Wrigley with these two starters appears to be low despite a projected wind blowing in. Just not possible to look at the Under here with Odorizzi/Jackson's pertinent splits totaling about 11 runs per nine. If either has a gem in them, they may have saved it just for me....LOL
In reality, there is just no way that I can pass on this number. The Cubs have seen little of Odorizzi, but the couple that have did have some success. Loney has seen Jackson very well and Edwin has not really fooled anyone this season. In a nutshell, expecting three runs from each team in this one doesn't seem to be asking too much.
The ugly truth is that when the clarity is there, I am happy to see the majority on the opposite side and when doubt creeps in, I find myself asking, "Am I missing something that others are seeing"?
Bruno's Bitchin' Bases (A9) ~ Do the Work! Things are still not crystal-clear.
Unless the Padres have learned to hit southpaws overnight, this clearly appears to be Liriano's game to lose. With Stults 0-9 when visiting, I guess you could say, "He's due", but I doubt that it's in this spot.
Red-Flag Alert ~ Beware the Giants. Although Shields' suffers from a general lack of run support, Hudson has been in the same boat. I cannot see a great deal of scoring, but the masses on the Under will keep me away here.
The Jays have fared well recently with me staying clear of them, so I will have no play. Stroman had a rough start at Houston, so we may see a fully-focused kid today that the Tigers have not seen. Max didn't look himself last outing, so runs may be tough to come by today. Scherzer has dominated RHB this season, but will face 8 LH/SH today. Still no chance I could look at the Over.
Tough one to call in the Bronx today. Kluber is good and McCarthy has been. The only real difference that I see here is in how these starters manage LHB as they will both see plenty. Kluber holds lefties to a .301 OBP while McCarthy has allowed a .315 BA. Tribe or nothing, methinks? Can't help but think that McCarthy is living on the edge.
Although my numbers show that the Brewers are "slightly" the right side, I am not sure how much faith I can put in Fiers? The fact that the Dodgers rarely score much for Greinke should help, but not sure what he has in store for his old mates? The Dodge have scored 3+ runs in just three of his last 6 starts. Jury's still out.
I have no idea how I got to this place, so I am now a believer that it can happen in an instant. Should you have any "outside" influence(s) going on, do yourself a favor and step away from the table. Best wishes for a safe, fun and prosperous weekend, folks!
Against the Number
Detroit Lions PK
This is a carryover from my opinion on Manziel going into the draft. I just simply do not believe he is NFL material. Off the field antics aside, I don’t believe he has the physical ability, arm, game IQ etc to compete at this level and I think he’s going to have a rough time tonight. Hoyer is not a starting NFL QB so whatever time he gets won’t be any different than a normal backup coming into the game during the preseason. The lions are flirting a thin line between success and failure and there will be some motivation to come out with some intensity to get the fans of Detroit excited. The starters will likely not see much time here but at this point I’d take most of Detroit’s 2nd stringers over the Browns starters anyways. It’s a sad state of affairs in Cleveland and if they hope to accomplish anything this season it will have to start with fundamentals tonight, bland football, hit your assignments, and not worry about the final score. That’s the kind of attitude I want to bet against so I’ll take the home team here looking to prove they belong in the playoff discussion.
Teddy Covers
Tennessee -2
To say that Mike McCarthy doesn’t care about the preseason opener is something of an understatement. The Packers are just 2-6 SU in McCarthy’s eight previous tries here in Week 1, including a 17-0 loss at Arizona last year, a 21-13 loss at San Diego in 2012, a 27-17 loss to Cleveland in 2011 and a 27-24 loss to Cleveland in 2010.
I’m willing to bet that a wager against the Packers here in Week 1 of the preseason is primed to cash for the fifth consecutive season. Like so many of the regular season elites that are already 0-1 (Seattle, San Fran, New England, Philly, Indy and Cinci, just to name six off the top of my head), August wins and losses are meaningless for this squad.
Green bay is not expected to show ANYTHING on defense here, running true vanilla schemes from start to finish rather than Dom Capers usual array of blitzes. McCarthy: “Most people don’t show what they’re going to show against Seattle (in Week 1). We have been practicing inside and doing some things. What we plan on doing for Seattle is nothing we’ve been practicing on outside and frankly we probably won’t show it the first four weeks of preseason.”
The Titans are playing their first game under Ken Whisenhunt. His quote: “There’s no question, I’m going to be excited about it. This is a new situation for me. I’m really excited about it. Our guys are working hard…. We are all chomping at the bit to get out there. We have been at it since early April leading up to this. So it's the first opportunity to get into the stadium. We're ready to go. I think we all want to get out there and work some things out."
But most importantly for Tennessee in a game that isn’t going to feature much (if any) Packers blitzing, the Titans have crowded and competitive battles at quarterback and wide receiver. Jake Locker is coming off another season lost to injury, with something to prove here in Week 1. Veteran backup Charlie Whitehurst is in his first year with the team, as is rookie Zack Mettenberger. All three QB’s will have a chance to get into a rhythm now that fourth stringer Tyler Wilson has been cut. And with ten WR’s battling for the final three roster spots, don’t be shocked if the Titans air the ball out a bit tonight, which should be enough to get them the victory. Take Tennessee.
Dana Lane
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -129
Typically, the Dodgers have been a strong 'favorite' play even if its in the role as road favorite. Los Angeles is 23-9 (71.88%) in the last 32 games as a favorite and 46-19 (70.77%) in their last 65 games as a road favorite. This indicates that Los Angeles beats the teams they're expected to. Zach Greinke (12-7 2.71 ERA) gets the start for the Dodgers against the Brewers who are 0-5 when Mike Fiers (0-1 2.57era) takes the hill. Don't be fooled by Zach's record against his former teams (0-3 4.75 ERA). This is a meaningless statistic designed to throw your focus off of betting the better team with the better starter. Greinke was 16-0 at home in 25 starts for the Brewers from 2011-2012 so its obvious he's comfortable pitching at Miller Park. Stay true to what you know about Zach. His last outing against the Angels where he allowed five runs in seven innings may have been a blessing to today's players as the price may be a bit lower than it normally would be off a great start. Look for Adrian Gonzalez to continue his blistering performance against Milwaukee. In 22 games in Milwaukee, Gonzalez is hitting .393 with eight homers including last night's 3-3 effort. Unfortunately, the 4-9 hitters were just 5-22 with 11 strikeouts. If you take away recent call-up, Carlos Frias' performance, the Dodgers allowed only 3 earned runs over 7 innings. I don't expect the Dodger defense or bullpen to falter today. You'll see a better representation of Dodger baseball.
Bruce Marshall
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Cards played with an edge last preseason for Arians. Apparently Logan Thomas is going to get a look ahead of Ryan Lindley in this game, but Drew Stanton will also get plenty of work and is a capable preseason QB. Always a bit tricky with new coaches like O'Brien, not sure what the Belichick connection will mean, but this looks very much like a work in progress with a new QB, new offense, and some key guys (Andre Johnson, Foster) likely to see little or no action. With a short price, home team worth a look.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Arizona Under 37.5: Both of these teams will have very good defenses this year, especially Houston, who will be out to show that the 27 ppg they allowed last year was not all their fault. The offense really put them in bad positions for much of the year, plus Schaub's TD's to the other teams didn't help either. This will be a very stout defense again, especially with the addition of Clowney and Nix. I see them being a top 7 or 8 defense this year. The Cardinals have some holes at LB, but both the front wall and secondary have a chance to be two of the better units in the league. Running the ball has always been an issue for the Cards and I expect them to work on that a bit more tonight, especially with so many unproven backs in the fold. The cards do have a nice QB rotation, but Palmer won't be in there all that long and Houston does have solid defensive depth. The Texas do not have a solid QB rotation. Fitzpatrick is a steady QB, but not a big play one and Keenum struggled last year. They will also see what QB Tom Savage can do, but I don't see them getting too many points with him in there. The Texans are a run first offense and should continue with that in this one. Really hard to see more than a 17-14 type game here.
LESSER PLAY
Green Bay/ Tennessee Under 38: The Packers offense didn't perform well last year without Rodgers in there, so they will limit him greatly in this game and I don't see the pack putting up a whole lot of points without him in there. Flynn and Tolzien are not quality backups, as they proved last year. The Tennessee Titans were without Locker for much of the year last season and they struggled to score as well. He won't get much time in their and their backups are now Charlie Whitehurst, Tyler Wilson and Zach Mettenberger. Yikes. Tennessee will probably work allot on their run game trying to see what Sankey can do, while also in the mix is Shonne Green. Very hard to see Tennessee moving the ball a whole lot, especially vs a very improved Green Bay defense that is looking to bounce back after last year's tough showing. No more than 35 in this one.
Non Stop Sports Picks
Diamondbacks - 105
Cahill pitched pretty well his last time out and hasn't given up more than 3 ERs in a while. De La Rosa, who I generally like, isn't pitching THAT poorly, but the Rockies are just done. They've quit and if any of you saw the game last night, a guy stole home on a throw back to the pitcher after a pitch. Just mental errors, not sharp, and they've mailed in their season. They also have an awful bullpen and are beat up. They're ready to go fishing with Charles Barkely, and we'll back the D'Backs tonight as a short fave.
OC Dooley
Twins +210
The key to this pick surrounds tonight’s Minnesota starting pitcher Trevor May who is one of the prizes of what is a deep farm system. May makes his major league debut tonight in a part of the country which is “drivable” from his hometown (Keslo, Washington) as both family and friends will be cheering from the stands. Trevor May had the fourth-best ERA in the International League (2.93) and in seven minor league seasons has averaged more than TEN STRIKEOUTS per nine innings. I am aware that Oakland has had a stranglehold in this series going a staggering 11-0 in the past eleven clashes versus Minnesota winning by a combined sixty runs in the process. But just last night the Twins snapped a nineteen inning scoreless streak and nearly recovered from an early 6-2 deficit. In the ninth inning last night a potential go-ahead homerun by ex-Athletic Josh Willingham barely went foul. Back on Thursday evening the Twins had another “near miss” as what appeared to be a three-run homer by Brian Dozier (homerun derby participant) barely landed on the wrong side of the foul pole. Thus the Twins have come very close on consecutive nights to finally snapping their series woes versus the Athletics and tonight get a much needed jolt in their starting rotation. For those with access to this contest keep an eye out for Minnesota catcher Kurt Suzuki who instead of being dealt at the trade deadline was just signed to a lucrative contract extension. This is the same Suzuki who spent 7 years in an A’s uniform (participated in 718 games) so he is familiar with the Oakland Coliseum and its quirky dimensions. As mentioned several times in the past week Oakland’s offense actually has struggled in the month of August and has NOT scored a first inning run in an amazing 17 consecutive contests