Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 1

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

UAB at North Carolina
The Tar Heels look to take advantage of a UAB team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games versus ACC teams. North Carolina is the pick (-16 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tar Heels favored by 19 1/2. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-16 1/2)

Game 521-522: Mississippi State at Providence (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 53.636; Providence 63.432
Dunkel Line: Providence by 10; 132
Vegas Line: Providence by 13; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+13); Over

Game 523-524: Pennsylvania at Penn State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 50.860; Penn State 60.961
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 10
Vegas Line: Penn State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-6 1/2)

Game 525-526: Baylor at Kentucky (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 65.779; Kentucky 76.552
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 11; 144
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 7; 150
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-7); Under

Game 527-528: Fordham at Harvard (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 46.696; Harvard 58.446
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 12
Vegas Line: Harvard by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+15 1/2)

Game 529-530: Illinois State at Louisville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 66.183; Louisville 78.823
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-10 1/2)

Game 531-532: Rutgers at Mississippi (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 60.900; Mississippi 67.358
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 6 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 8; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+8); Over

Game 533-534: Delaware at Duke (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 57.074; Duke 73.420
Dunkel Line: Duke by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+19 1/2)

Game 535-536: Oklahoma State at Virginia Tech (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 67.670; Virginia Tech 63.671
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 4
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-1 1/2)

Game 537-538: BYU at Iowa State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 64.576; Iowa State 70.764
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 6
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-4 1/2)

Game 539-540: New Mexico at Indiana State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 64.573; Indiana State 61.772
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 3
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 6
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+6)

Game 541-542: Youngstown State at Bowling Green (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 52.913; Bowling Green 52.827
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 1
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (+1)

Game 543-544: Toledo at Cleveland State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 51.822; Cleveland State 59.115
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-4 1/2)

Game 545-546: Miami (FL) at Massachusetts (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 63.793; Massachusetts 62.480
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 1 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 1 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+1 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Xavier at Purdue (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 62.632; Purdue 71.279
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 8 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Purdue by 6 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-6 1/2); Over

Game 549-550: St. Joseph's at Creighton (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 66.767; Creighton 69.763
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 3
Vegas Line: Creighton by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+5 1/2)

Game 551-552: Alabama at Cincinnati (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 68.299; Cincinnati 76.864
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 129
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 553-554: SMU at Hofstra (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 55.482; Hofstra 51.196
Dunkel Line: SMU by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+6 1/2)

Game 555-556: Michigan at Bradley (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 71.815; Bradley 56.237
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 15 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: Michigan by 13 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-13 1/2); Over

Game 557-558: WI-Green Bay at Virginia (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 54.225; Virginia 71.062
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 17
Vegas Line: Virginia by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-10 1/2)

Game 559-560: Ball State at Butler (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 46.853; Butler 62.080
Dunkel Line: Butler by 15
Vegas Line: Butler by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+16 1/2)

Game 561-562: Evansville at Colorado State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 55.963; Colorado State 68.156
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-9 1/2)

Game 563-564: Villanova at Vanderbilt (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 60.686; Vanderbilt 60.163
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 1; 135
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 1 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+1 1/2); Over

Game 565-566: UAB at North Carolina (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 56.100; North Carolina 75.234
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 19
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-16 1/2)

Game 567-568: Drake at Nevada (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 569-570: Wake Forest at Richmond (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 49.767; Richmond 64.132
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 13
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-13)

Game 571-572: Detroit at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 57.637; Pittsburgh 70.179
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 15
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+15)

Game 573-574: Old Dominion at William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 51.175; William & Mary 55.393
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 4
Vegas Line: William & Mary by 3 1/2

Game 575-576: TX-Arlington at Texas (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 56.041; Texas 64.566
Dunkel Line: Texas by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 12
Dunkel Pick: TX-Arlington (+12)

Game 577-578: NC-Wilmington at Marshall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 44.710; Marshall 62.359
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 16
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-16)

Game 579-580: Buffalo at St. Bonaventure (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 52.288; St. Bonaventure 60.002
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 9
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9)

Game 581-582: Northern Illinois at Dayton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 40.693; Dayton 64.003
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Dayton by 21 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-21 1/2)

Game 583-584: East Carolina at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 55.584; Charlotte 57.478
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 2
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+5 1/2)

Game 585-586: Princeton at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 55.588; Kent State 58.086
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+3 1/2)

Game 587-588: Hawaii at UNLV (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 52.741; UNLV 75.549
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 23
Vegas Line: UNLV by 21
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-21)

Game 589-590: South Alabama at Florida International (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 53.482; Florida International 47.728
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 4
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-4)

Game 591-592: UL-Lafayette at North Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 50.394; North Texas 55.844
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: North Texas by 8
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+8)

Game 593-594: Pacific at Gonzaga (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 51.904; Gonzaga 79.707
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 28
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 20
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-20)

Game 595-596: Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 52.301; Florida Atlantic 51.141
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+2 1/2)

Game 597-598: UL-Monroe at AR-Little Rock (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 43.883; AR-Little Rock 53.802
Dunkel Line: AR-Little Rock by 10
Vegas Line: AR-Little Rock by 13
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+13)

Game 599-600: Texas A&M at Houston (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 60.087; Houston 56.017
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 4
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 3
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-3)

Game 601-602: Illinois-Chicago at Northwestern (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 55.288; Northwestern 68.199
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 13
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 11
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-11)

Game 603-604: WI-Milwaukee at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 49.490; Northern Iowa 59.687
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 10
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+12 1/2)

Game 605-606: Arizona at Texas Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 66.276; Texas Tech 52.312
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 14; 152
Vegas Line: Arizona by 11; 147
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-11); Over

Game 607-608: Western Kentucky at Troy (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 56.464; Troy 51.919
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+6 1/2)

Game 609-610: Portland at Washington State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 49.581; Washington State 58.643
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 9
Vegas Line: Washington State by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+10 1/2)

Game 611-612: Southern Mississippi at New Mexico State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 58.341; New Mexico State 64.325
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 6
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 5
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (-5)

Game 613-614: Colorado at Wyoming (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 64.433; Wyoming 64.769
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+2 1/2)

Game 615-616: UC-Santa Barbara at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 52.169; Santa Clara 60.341
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 8
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Santa Barbara (+12 1/2)

Game 617-618: Cal Poly at St. Mary's (CA) (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 52.112; St. Mary's (CA) 69.221
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 18
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-13 1/2)

Game 619-620: UC-Davis at Idaho (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 45.727; Idaho 51.828
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 6
Vegas Line: Idaho by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Davis (+7 1/2)

Game 621-622: San Diego State at UCLA (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 64.384; UCLA 68.804
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 4 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: UCLA by 3; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-3); Under

Game 623-624: Rider at Drexel (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 53.842; Drexel 63.464
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 11
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+11)

Game 625-626: Georgia Southern at Samford (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 47.275; Samford 43.278
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 4
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 1
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (-1)

Game 627-628: Oakland at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 51.098; Western Michigan 53.594
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 4
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+4)

Game 629-630: Appalachian State at Missouri (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 42.352; Missouri 73.552
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 31
Vegas Line: Missouri by 25 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-25 1/2)

Game 631-632: Morehead State at Wright State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 54.285; Wright State 53.354
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 1
Vegas Line: Wright State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+2 1/2)

Game 633-634: Furman at Loyola-Chicago (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 42.488; Loyola-Chicago 53.533
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 11
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 13
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+13)

Game 635-636: San Jose State at Montana State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 45.225; Montana State 50.746
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (-2)

Game 637-638: Western Illinois at UMKC (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 56.869; UMKC 50.031
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 7
Vegas Line: Western Illinois by 2
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (-2)

Game 639-640: Sacramento State at Arizona State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 46.902; Arizona State 55.330
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+10)

Game 641-642: College of Charleston at Elon (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 56.334; Elon 55.252
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 1
Vegas Line: Elon by 3
Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (+3)

Game 643-644: Miami (OH) at IPFW (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 48.375; IPFW 50.679
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: IPFW by 1
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (-1)

Game 645-646: The Citadel at NC-Greensboro (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 42.374; NC-Greensboro 49.241
Dunkel Line: NC-Greensboro by 7
Vegas Line: NC-Greensboro by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+9 1/2)

Game 647-648: Davidson at Chattanooga (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 63.318; Chattanooga 46.745
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Davidson by 14
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-14)

Game 649-650: Western Carolina at Eastern Kentucky (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 51.472; Eastern Kentucky 51.747
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 3
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+3)

Game 651-652: NE-Omaha at South Dakota State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 34.711; South Dakota State 63.375
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 28 1/2
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 24
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-24)

Game 653-654: Belmont at VCU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 64.386; VCU 74.585
Dunkel Line: VCU by 10
Vegas Line: VCU by 7
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-7)

Game 655-656: IUPUI at South Dakota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 47.025; South Dakota 47.791
Dunkel Line: South Dakota by 1
Vegas Line: South Dakota by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (+1 1/2)

Game 657-658: Fairfield at Austin Peay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 53.411; Austin Peay 46.647
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 7
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-4 1/2)

Game 659-660: Portland State at Loyola-Marymount (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 46.871; Loyola-Marymount 54.136
Dunkel Line: Loyola Marymount by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+9 1/2)

Game 661-662: Northern Colorado at UC-Riverside (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 47.420; UC-Riverside 43.282
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 4
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 3
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-3)

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Middle Tenn. St. at Arkansas St.
Prediction: Middle Tenn. St.
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Talk about bad timing. With the Red Wolves poised to claim the Sun Belt championship in this afternoon affair at Jonesboro, word has come down that Auburn has pink-slipped head coach Gene Chizik and will soon be waving the big bucks at ASU head coach Gus Malzahn. If so, that would mark the second straight year that an SEC school has snatched away a one-and-done coach from Arkansas State (Ole Miss bagged Hugh Freeze after his 10-3 debut in 2011). And why wouldn?t the Tigers want Malzahn? He certainly has the makings of an offensive guru: the Red Wolves? attack has piled up over 400 yards in eight of 11 games in 2012 (over 500 yards six times) while scoring at least 30 points in nine outings. Credit senior QB Ryan Aplin who broke the league record for career passing yards and rallied ASU from a shaky 2-3 start to its current 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS run. If Aplin?s 20-to-4 touchdown-interception ration doesn?t grab your attention, how about the fact that in games against seven common opponents this year, the Red Wolves own a solid 112 net YPG stat advantage over the Blue Raiders? MTSU has never won a Sun Belt title outright and the visitors? soft slate (lined foes a feeble 41-64 SU in 2012) suggests they could be in trouble here. So do the results from the last two meetings with ASU, near-identical 26-point and 27-point whippings administered by the J-boro boys. However, Middle Tennessee had gone 6-1 SUATS in this series before those two setbacks and HC Rick Stockstill enters today?s fray with a 12-2 SUATS career record in SBC games off a SUATS win when his team owns a winning record. The Blue Man Group also happen to be on a nice 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS run of their own. Yes, it will be tough stepping in front of these red-hot Wolves but with the Auburn vacancy proving to be a major distraction for Malzahn, double-digits are hard to pass up with a competent avenging foe like MTSU. Wolves claim the kill but the Blue Raiders grab the green. We recommend a 1-unit play on Middle Tennessee State.

Ben Burns
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South Alabama vs. Hawaii
Pick: South Alabama
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Earlier in the season, with the team learning new schemes, I successfully picked my spots to play "against" the Warriors. After avoiding them in Week 1, I played against them in ther first "real" home game of the season, backing Nevada.
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Having attended the "Hawaii Bowl" a few months previous, a game Nevada lost, I had a strong hunch that the Wolfpack were going to be very motivated, not to mention a better team.
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That proved to be the case, as Nevada would go on to defeat the Warriors by a score of 69-24.
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I came right back and successfully played "against" Hawaii the next week, too. Getting 20 something points at BYU, the Warriors lost 47-0.
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Lately, however, I've been playing "on" the Warriors. Two weeks ago, I successfully played on them at Air Force. They were again getting 20 something points, only this time they only lost by 14.
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Last week, I came right back with the Warriors, successfully playing "on" them when they hosted UNLV. Listed as small underdogs, the Warriors waxed the Rebels by a 48-10 margin.
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Off that big win, however, I now feel that the "line value" has again shifted the other way. Not only did the Warriors open as favorites but the line has climbed considerably since it came out. I feel the current number is generously high.
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Note that Hawaii was just 2-5 ATS the past couple of seasons, when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range.
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I was certainly pleased with the Warriors effort against UNLV last week. Let's keep in mind that it was their first victory against a 1-A team all season long though. (The Warriors' only other win came against Lamar, the week before the Nevada game - and they were favored by 36 points in that one.)
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Although dreadful at home, South Alabama has quietly gone a profitable 4-2 ATS on the road. I expect a motivated effort here. Consider taking the points.

Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska / Wisconsin Under 49
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Nebraska will be playing this one without their starting center...never an easy task, especially this late in the season. Their defense however, has been outstanding during their six game win streak, allowing less than 270 yards per game, while holding opponents to 41% passing! Wisconsin scored 27 points in the first meeting, a 3-point Nebraska win. But most of their 27 points came off Nebraska offensive and special teams miscues. The Huskers settled down and held Wiscy to 90 total yards in the second half of that game. I believe we're in for a low scoring game and I'm playing the Big-10 championship to stay Under the total.

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise State at Nevada
Pick: Nevada +9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Broncos have been living on the BCS Bowl bubble the last couple of years, but they lost a lot of talent in the skill positions from a year ago. This is still a good team, but not of the ilk we have seen in recent years. Defensively, the Broncos still get after it, but the offense is not any better than average. The Broncos are usually punishing the bad teams with their offense, but unless they get to 50 points here it will be the first time since 1996 that Boise State did not get to 50 points all season. That is something that they have done 46 times since 1997, and 14 of them came in the last three years. The Broncos have two losses and three wins by 10 points or less, so the respectable teams are staying with them this season. Nevada sure has a good chance of being the next one. The Wolfpack has four losses, but two of those came by just 1 point. Stefphon Jefferson has rushed for over 1,500 yards and Cody Fajardo has passed for over 2,300, so they should be able to score enough to hang around this one. The Broncos were once the kings of the line in NCAA football, but are now just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games. And since last season, the Broncops are just 1-8 ATS vs. good rushing teams like NEvada (teams getting 4.75+ yards per carry). Take Nevada and the points.

Freddy Wills
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Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Play: Oklahoma State
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I faded Baylor big last week and I paid for it with a little bit of bad luck as Texas Tech had 4 turnovers that cost them the game. Now that Baylor is bowl eligible and they come in facing Oklahoma State at home I think we still get great value here. There will be no hang over for the Cowboys after losing to Oklahoma last week after they blew a double digit lead. This team has been strong under Mike Gundy, as they lost on a Friday night to Iowa State last year that cost them a shot at the National Championship, but they returned the next week to dominate a good Oklahoma team 44-10. Baylor may have a top 10 offense, but their defense is still as bad as they get, and now Baylor has to face arguably the best offense they have all year.
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Oklahoma State has a balanced approach that's not something the Baylor defense has really seen and that's bad news because between QB Clint Chelf, who also double as a runner with 5.84 ypc, and Joeseph Randle who is a next level talent they should be able to run all over a Baylor front that's 96th in ypc. Thier pass defense is even worse ranking 119th in sack %, 109th in pass completion defense and 122nd in yards allowed. Oklahoma State is 7th in passing yards, but again they are difficult to defend because they run the ball 51% and pass the ball 49% of the time. Baylor has played teams that do either one and they have come up with turnovers. I just don't see them being able to do that against a balanced offense that's 3rd in scoring offense. Baylor is still allowing 57.4% conversions on third downs to conference opponents while Oklahoma State is at 35%. Oklahoma State also is good at stopping the run ranked 23rd. Baylor despite popular belief runs the ball a ton ranked 60th in rushing play % and has run it more of late 60% over their last 3 games. Oklahoma State only allowing 2.9 ypc over their last 3 games.

Accuscore

Nebraska -3 vs. Wisconsin

The Cornhuskers have started playing much better defense of late particularly against the run. They allowed just 87 rushing yards to Minnesota and 108 to Iowa. Both Minnesota and Iowa are bad teams, but neither averaged even 3.2 yards per play. Both of Nebraska’s losses this year (UCLA, Ohio State) were on the road and outside on grass. This game will be played at a neutral site in Indianapolis indoors. That should help Nebraska’s offense much more than it will benefit Wisconsin. The Badgers have lost three of their last four games, and just do not seem to be trending in the right direction to the end the year, and are having trouble generating offense with Curt Phillips at quarterback.

Central Florida +2 at Tulsa

These two teams played two weeks ago with Tulsa coming out on top by two points. Both that game and this one are at Tulsa. I think there were some explainable reasons for that game, and also reasons to believe the Knights will play much better this week. The last match-up was the fourth road game in five weeks for UCF. Quarterback Blake Bortles is normally very accurate with a 67 percent completion rate outside of an aberrant 13 for 31 performance against Tulsa. Bortles has thrown just two interceptions since 9/15, and both came in the same game in an otherwise dominant game against Marshall. Tulsa lost last week to Southern Methodist (admittedly after locking up their division), a team UCF beat by 25 points. I like the Knights a bit more for having to stay focused last week, and win rather than Tulsa essentially taking a vacation last week. I like UCF outright in close game in this rematch.

Florida State -13.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has trouble playing defense which is not good when going up against an offense that averages over 40 points per game. Simulations have the Seminoles winning nearly 83 percent of the time by about 18 points on average. E.J. Manuel is a bit banged up, but they are clearly a cut above a team that might need a waiver to reach a bowl game. Florida State has allowed only four teams to rush for more than 100 yards this season. Georgia Tech obviously is clearly a one-dimensional team. I’m going with the talent and the Seminoles.

Larry Ness
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S Alabama vs. Hawaii
Pick: Over
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Hawaii’s first season in the MWC concludes Saturday night with a non-league affair with FBS newcomer, South Alabama. Norm Chow, everyone’s favorite offensive coordinator, took the Hawaii head coaching job this season and it’s fair to to conclude that this season was an unmitigated disaster. The Rainbow Warriors entered last Saturday’s game with UNLV 1-9 overall and 0-7 in MWC play. The season included losses to league foes Nevada (69-24), San Diego St (52-14), Fresno St (45-10) an Boise St (49-14) plus a non-conference loss to former WAC rival BYU, 47-0. However, the week before the UNLV game we saw some signs of life from the Rainbow Warriors, as they fought hard at Air force, losing just 21-7 as 22 1/2-point underdogs while allowing just 338 yards. That was a portend of things to come, as the Hawaii feasted on the sad-sack Rebels (now losers of 22 straight road games), jumping out to a 31-0 halftime lead and cruising to a 48-10 win. It allowed the Rainbow Warriors to finish 1-7 in MWC play and it is just the school’s second win of 2012 (beat Lamar, 54-2). Will the Rainbow Warriors “finish with the flourish” of a two-game winning streak? South Alabama is 2-10, playing as a transitioning member of the Sun Belt Conference in 2012. It enters the weekend having dropped FIVE straight decisions since taking down Florida Atlantic in double- overtime back on Oct 20 by a score of 37-34. The Jaguars get a 13th game by playing in Hawaii and it's hard NOT to think this is a quite a treat for a team which has suffered through a tough season. South Alabama is winless on the road this season in six tries, allowing an average of 35.2 PPG, while losing by an average margin of 16.2 PPG (just one loss under double digits). I’m betting Hawaii, which will finish with fewer than six wins for just the THIRD time since 2000 (went 3-9 in 2000 and 5-7 in 2005), will end on a two-game winning streak in 2012 by care of business vs a ‘vacationing’ South Alabama team. However, with the Hawaii defense allowing 38.3 PPG on the season, the safer bet just may be the over.

Matt Fargo
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Texas vs. Kansas State
Pick: Texas
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There is still a lot at stake when Texas and Kansas St. square off with both teams coming off losses as favorites.
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Kansas St.'s season was ruined two weeks ago went it lost at Baylor, ending the hopes of a possible National Championship. While a BCS Bowl game and a Big XII Championship are still on the line, I don't think we are going to see a highly motivated Wildcats team here. They are saying the right things but the loss against the Bears was devastating and it exposed a defense that has been battered in most of its games against good teams in the conference. Kansas St. sees another one here.
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I played against Texas on Thanksgiving as we came away with an outright win for TCU which snapped the Longhorns four-game winning streak. Turnovers ended up being the difference as Texas lost that battle 4-1 despite them outgaining the Horned Frogs 300-299. That was the second home loss for the Longhorns which have actually played better on the road than they have at home. The Longhorns are 4-0 in true road games, with victories over Oklahoma St., Mississippi, Kansas and Texas Tech.
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The Wildcats have to run the ball effectively to beat the Longhorns and that will not be easy. Kansas St. has rushed for just 191 total yards over its last two games and while the Texas rushing defense has been gashed this season, it has only come back to hurt them badly just once and that was against Oklahoma. Wildcats quarterback Colin Klein is a special player and he still has a shot at the Heisman Trophy but it may be too little too late especially knowing he is not yet back at 100 percent.
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Texas will do its best to control the line of scrimmage on both sides and it may have a slight edge on offense. Kansas St. was tagged for 342 yards rushing against Baylor which was by far their worst performance and Texas can take advantage. The Longhorns have two capable running backs as well as a mobile quarterback and with a long break to dissect that film from the Baylor game, they will be able to find out exactly how the Bears were able to dominate the rushing defense that was ninth in the country coming in.
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Kansas St. is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite or six or more points while going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Texas meanwhile is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record and it helps knowing that the underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven meetings. With both teams coming off losses, I give the edge to the underdog at a very big number.

Jimmy Boyd
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Nevada Wolf Pack +8.5
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Nevada has played Boise State as tough as anyone in recent years. The Wolf Pack won 34-31 the last time they hosted the Broncos. Nevada has won or lost by seven points or less in three of the last five meetings and has gone 4-1 against the spread in these games.
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The Wolf Pack have lost three home games this season but two of the losses came by a single point. One of those narrow defeats came against San Diego State, which also defeated Boise State 21-19 Nov. 3.
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Nevada played San Diego State tougher than Boise State. The Wolf Pack put up 38 points on the Aztecs and outgained them 480-349. The Broncos only managed 276 yards of offense in their meeting with the Aztecs.
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Boise State is one of the top defensive teams in the country, but it will have its work cut out for itself as it goes up against one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. The Wolf Pack rank 10th in total offense with 509.5 yards per game and 16th in scoring with 38.5 points per game.
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Boise State will have a tough time coming back if it falls behind early. That’s because it ranks 81st in total offense with 386.0 yards per game and 50th in scoring with 30.7 points per contest.
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It is significant that Nevada ranks seventh in the country in rushing offense with 263.0 yards per game. That’s because the Broncos are 0-6 against the spread versus good rushing teams that average 200.0 rushing yards or more per game over the last two seasons. Take Nevada and the points.

Kyle Hunter
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Pittsburgh vs. South Florida
Play: Under 46½
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The Pitt Panthers defense has improved as the season has moved along. The Panthers have only allowed more than 24 points in one game in their last 6 (and that was an OT loss to Notre Dame). USF is without B.J. Daniels at quarterback, and the Bulls offense hasn't been good of late. Look for a sloppy low scoring game here.

Steve Janus
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Connecticut +5
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The Huskies just pulled off a huge upset at Louisville last week, but it seems like more people want to point to that being a fluke than giving this team any credit for how they played. It’s not all that surprising considering the Huskies are just 5-6 overall and 2-4 in conference play.
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I’m not saying Connecticut is a great team by any means, but I think they are one of the more underrated teams in the country. Four of the Huskies six losses have come by a touchdown or less and their two worst performances both came on the road against Rutgers (3-19) and Syracuse (10-40). They haven’t lost by more than a field goal all season at home.
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What I really like about the Huskies is the way this team has continued to fight when they could have easily given up on their season after starting 0-4 in the conference and were just 3-6 overall at that point. This team is on a mission to finish the season 6-6 and become eligible for a bowl game and after their two most recent wins over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati you have to like their chances of sneaking out a win at home.
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The Bearcats have benefited from a very favorable schedule, as they have played just three true road games. They are 1-2 in those games with a shocking 23-29 loss at Toledo. Cincinnati has one of the top home-field advantages in the nation and they simply don’t play up to their potential on the road.
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A couple of big trends favor the Huskies to cover the spread and potentially win this game outright. Connecticut is 30-13 in home games after playing their last game on the road and are winning these games by an average score of 29-21. They are also 10-1 ATS over their last 11 home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1992. They have won these contest by an average margin of 34-17.

Chip Chirimbes
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Boise State vs. Nevada
Play: Nevada
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It was Nevada who knock Boise out of the BCS hunt. This is the Broncos final game in the MTN West and they have not had success in Reno where they are 1-3-1 ATS in their final road game and Nevada is 4-0-1 in their final home game. Wolf Pack have dropped seven straight both straight-up and against the points...the ATS steak ends here.

Jack Jones
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Pittsburgh Panthers -7
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The Panthers need one more win to become bowl eligible. They will certainly want this win more for that reason alone. They have been playing their best football of the season in the second half and head into this contest with a ton of momentum.
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Pittsburgh is 3-2 in its last five games with blowout wins over Buffalo (20-6), Temple (47-17) and then-No. 18 Rutgers (27-6) last week. Their two losses have come on the road against then-No. 3 Notre Dame and Connecticut by a combined 10 points. They even took the Fighting Irish to triple overtime, and we all know that they will be playing for a National Championship at season’s end.
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South Florida has been simply atrocious all season while stumbling to a 3-8 record. They have been at their worst of late with back-to-back blowout losses to Miami (9-40) and Cincinnati (10-27). A big reason for their struggles the last two weeks is the loss of starting quarterback B.J. Daniels to a season-ending ankle injury. Backup Matt Floyd has not been good in his place, completing just 53.6 percent of his passes with two interceptions and no touchdowns.
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The Panthers are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with South Florida. Pittsburgh is 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulls are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, and 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.