Tony George
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Texas +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pressure mounting for K State and QB Collin Klein. Not as easy as this one looks, even off a bye week, I like Texas to pull out all the stops after a beatdown against TCU on Turkey Day. Big 12 Title and BCS Bowl Bid on the line for a good K State team, and this one is pressure packed and will be tighter than you think. The noose always gets tighter, as we have seen with all the dogs covering Thursday and Friday in NCAA football. Bill Snyder outcoaches Mack Brown down the stretch and gets a HUGE win for K State.
SPORTS WAGERS
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TULSA -2½ -110 over Central Florida
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Two weeks ago, when these teams met in Tulsa, the Hurricane won by just two points but outgained the Knights by a whopping 226 yards and had a huge 26-14 edge in first downs. The Central Florida offense struggled in that one with just 66 yards on the ground and 235 total yards. That narrow but misleading Hurricane victory has them underpriced in this rematch. Had Tulsa not lost the turnover battle 2-0, they would’ve won by two TD’s instead of two points.
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Last week, the Knights allowed 599 yards to UAB in what coach George O'Leary called the worst defensive performance he has ever been associated with. That type of Jekyll-and-Hyde act has been exactly what's plagued the Knights throughout a not so dominant 9-3 campaign. One of those wins came against an (0-12) Southern Miss team in OT. Central Florida has a special-teams edge in this matchup but any other edge ends right there. The 4-0 sack differential enjoyed by the Hurricane in the last meeting was right in line with season-long trends. The host has enough of an advantage to make laying less than a field goal the prudent choice.
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NEVADA +8½ -105 over Boise State
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The 9-2 Boise State Broncos have an outstanding pedigree over the past decade or so and are currently ranked 20th in the nation. That’s laughable, as we can name at least 25 other teams that are vastly superior to these imposters. The Broncos have played perhaps the easiest schedule in the country with their opponents amassing a 25-69 record combined. Only the 6-5 BYU Cougars are over .500, who the Broncos beat 7-6 after winning the turnover battle 5-0.
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Clearly, this season has been one of transition for the Broncos after losing many key players from recent teams that have given the BCS a scare on a regular basis. However, their ranking and record does not reflect that and now we get an inflated price on the 7-4 Wolfpack, playing at home and with the superior QB. Nevada QB Cody Fajardo who, in the mold of former Nevada signal-caller Colin Kaepernick, can be a dual threat when the offense is operating at peak performance. The only concern here is that Nevada has already locked up a Bowl Game and will play for pride only. However, with a chance to knock off a top 20 club, we trust they’ll bring it in the season finale. Even the Wolfpack’s worst game could get the cover and should they come in focused, they could easily win outright.
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Wisconsin +3 +103 over Nebraska
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The respective W/L records of these two has this game wrongly priced and we’ll look to take advantage. Wisconsin is 7-5 but three of those losses have come in overtime and two by a field goal in regulation. Nebraska (10-2) has won just three of its five games away from Lincoln, all requiring second-half comebacks and none by more than six points. The Cornhuskers are still allowing an average of nearly 250 rushing yards per game away from home even after shutting down a pedestrian Iowa offense in bad weather conditions last week. This game is in neutral Indianapolis, but that's still a disadvantage for the Huskers, as Nebraska fans purchased barely half of the school's modest 15,000-ticket allotment.
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The Huskers will be missing their starting center and best interior defensive lineman, while Wisconsin's overall health is better than it has been in weeks and considerably better than it was when these two teams met in September. Aside from this year and it wasn’t pretty, Bo Pelini's Huskers have never lost fewer than four games, have never posted a winning record against the spread in conference play, have lost eight games as favorites (five as double-digit favorites) and have been blown out by at least three scores seven times. We simply do not trust this bunch, especially spotting points at unfavorable venue. Wisconsin outright.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Memphis +6 -105 over SAN ANTONIO
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The Popgate scandal aside, the Spurs have nothing to prove and will treat this game like any other. They still return home from an exhausting trip to face one the NBA’s toughest teams.
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Not only are the Grizzlies 12-2 overall but they’ve won four straight on the road and haven’t lost an away contest since the season’s opening game. They’re also the top defensive team in the league, allowing just 90 points per game. Based on that number alone, the Grizz are not getting the respect they deserve and we can confidently keep stepping in until they do.
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CLEVELAND -105 over Portland
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The Cavaliers 4-12 record has them grossly undervalued here against a Blazers team that looks to be in serious trouble. Cleveland has played just five of its 16 games at home. Most of their losses have come against some of the best talent in the NBA. Now the Cavs will play at home for only the third time since Nov 2 after beating the Hawks in Atlanta last night.
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After being the first team to lose to the then 0-12 Wizards, Portland had a players only meeting before its game in Boston last night. It didn’t help.They fell behind 56-33 at the half and never stood a chance after that. Reports are that LeMarcus Aldridge, the team leader, sat silent at the meeting. It was their fourth loss in a row and they’re showing less interest in each passing game. There’s nothing in their game or body language that suggests a fire will get lit tonight against a team that plays hard every game and it’s about to pay off again.
Tony Karpinski
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Florida State vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Florida State
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At Florida State, they play for championships. They have been doing that for a long time. FSU had 5 turnovers last week and just played poorly the entire game. FSU will let Tech have their little plays, after the FSU offense has made their quick, big ones against a defense formerly known as the Al Groh Clown Show, and still has the make-up and costumes. Florida State by 30 here on Saturday night!
Charlie Sports
Utah Jazz+ at Houston Rockets
Play: Utah Jazz
The (9-8) Utah Jazz of the NBA Western Conference Northwest division will take on the (7-8) Houston Rockets of the Western Conference Southwest division in 2012 NBA action. Utah beat Houston 102-91 earlier this season at home. The Jazz have also covered 4 of the last 5 Against The Spread vs. The Rockets. The under has come in the last 4 meetings between the teams. The Rockets have also won 3 of their last 4 straight up and ATS. Utah gets the road cover.
Northcoast Sports
Texas +12
Since ‘99 the dog is a perfect 7-0 ATS with 6 outright upsets (5 by KSU). LY UT (-8) was out to avenge a 39-14 spanking on the road at KSU the previous yr. In that game, UT had finished with a 412-290 yd edge but trailed 24-0 at the half and got a garbage td with :31 left. LY KSU QB Klein was sk’d 5 times and hit just 9-17 passes. Just before the half KSU would get a td to lead 10-3. After an int KSU drove 37 yds for a td. UT settled for a 26 yd FG and ended up losing 17-13 despite the large stat edges (310-121 yd, 15-9 FD). Even though they won, KSU HC Snyder said after the game about the UT D, “they just beat the tar out of us.” Texas is just 2-6 SU in the series with their largest wins by 4 and 3 pts and their avg loss by 18.5 ppg!!! The Horns (-7) lost to TCU 20-13 on Thanksgiving as UT finished with a 22-15 FD edge but TO’s doomed them as QB Ash had 3 incl int’s at the TCU1 and 6 and a fmbl which set up a 16 yd Frog td drive. McCoy (11-17-119-0-1) played in both halves and led a 4Q td drive after Ash (ribs) left the gm for good. All 7 of Ash’s int’s TY have come in the opp’s RZ (223, 68%, 17-7). KSU had the bye to get over their bubble bursting loss to Baylor which likely cost them a chance at the national title. The Cats can clinch their 1st B12 title s/’03 with a win here and keep QB Klein (210, 67%, 14-6, 787 rush, 20 td) in the Heisman hunt. The Cats have been outgained by their L/4 opp by 68 ypg but the FBS’s best TO margin (+21) kept the win streak alive until Baylor where they had a negative TO margin (-1) for just the 2nd time TY. Snyder is off of a SU loss (23-13 ATS) with extra time to game plan during the bye, but the dog rules this series. With that in mind, we’ll go with a Longhorns team that is sticking with McCoy which will settle their offense down and accept the generous points here.
Andrew Lange
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Alabama at Cincinnati
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Toughest challenge of the season for Alabama's youthful lineup as they head up north to face a very experience and talented Cincinnati squad. The Crimson Tide are a perfect 6-0 with decent wins over South Dakota State, Oregon State and Villanova. But those were at home and on neutral courts. It will be very tough for a rotation that features 4 sophomores, 2 freshmen, and 2 juniors to go on the road to a hostile environment and hang for a full 40 minutes. Especially considering the Crimson Tide are notorious for their outside shooting struggles – you have to knock down threes in this type of underdog role. Cincinnati returns from a strong showing in Las Vegas with wins over Iowa State and Oregon. The Bearcats do at times live and die with the three but they have hit 40% thus far and will be in the comforts of home this afternoon. Defensively is where the Bearcats have looked the part. They held the Cyclones and Ducks to 0.93 points per possession and 43% and 39% effective FG percentage respectively. Defensively, I see both squads as even, but offensively, the Bearcats just have too many weapons and when you add in home court, Cinci is sitting on a double-digit win.
Wunderdog
Texas A&M at Houston
Pick: Texas A&M -3
Texas A&M will bring a three-game winning streak with them to Houston, who suffered their first setback their last time on the floor. It was not a good one either as they were beaten by Prairie View A&M. The Cougars like to get out and run the floor or spread their opponent out on the offensive end, but they don't do a good job on the other end of the floor and it caught up with them against Prairie View. A&M has lost just once as well, and has had a much more difficult road to 5-1 than Houston. The Aggies have a lot more discipline and will be the best team the Cougars have faced all season. A&M plays both ends, and that will be the difference here. The Cougars have not been strong off a loss at 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when following a setback. A&M delivers the knockout punch often as a road team vs. a team with a winning home record at an impressive 47-22 ATS in their last 69. Texas A&M gets the call.