Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte BobcatsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Orlando MagicFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando fits a Nice NBA System here that tells us to play on road favorites of 4 or less that scored 90 or more as a home dog last night, vs an opponent like Charlotte that scored 90 or more points as a road dog of 10 or more points. These road favorites have covered over 75% of the time long term. Charlotte is struggling and in the midst of a long losing streak and has not won in the month of December. On the season they have lost 7 of 8 times after giving up 105 or more points. Orlando is off a nice home win over a hot Golden State squad. The Magic have won 7 of the last 8 times these 2 have played and 13 of the last 18 when playing on Saturday. Even better is all road teams with no rest after a home game at Charlotte are 12-1 ats and have won and covered the last 10 times. Look for the Magic to take another from Charlotte.
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Kansas State at GonzagaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: GonzagaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Major statement game for the Zags after getting trampled by Illinois last time out. Kansas State is certainly capable, but the Wildcats are running into a team with dominant capabilities at the wrong time. I'll lay it with Gonzaga.
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Indiana / Butler Under 142.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The only way Butler wins or keeps this close is to slow the game down as much as possible. The Hoosiers held North Carolina to 59 points and have the 7th best defensive efficiency numbers in the nation, and against a good schedule. Conversely, we trust Butler's ability to play SOME defense against Indiana, who had their lowest season offensive total on a neutral court (Brooklyn) against a team that plays a similar style to Butler.
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Oklahoma -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lon Kruger led Sooners grab the call today as the J Oster has quietly been knocking down CBB plays ...19-12 last 31 ... 61.2% and the GAME O YEAR SATURDAY NIGHT Sec Style ON TAP..Soooners are the right side here in the game here boys......... Capped at the Power Play rating of - 6 vs the Over rated imo Texas Am crew..... The Sooners are better on the boards and possess a super bench! Also smooth 3 pt sharp shooter in Steve Pledger second in league .... ... Game today in Okie City a short trip from Sooner land.... The All College Classic winner goes at 2 pm... .... Oklahoma boasts a 29-10 all-time record against Texas A&M Aggies are a soft bunch boys.
DAVID BANKS
Toledo / Utah State Over 58
One of the best ATS teams in the country gets some exposure on opening day of the 2012-13 Bowl Season when the Utah State Aggies (10-2, 10-1-1 ATS) take on the Toledo Rockets (9-3, 7-5 ATS) in the Idaho Potato Bowl from Bronco Stadium in Boise, ID at 4:30 ET on ESPN. The Aggies came very close to making it though the entire season without an ATS loss, as their only non-cover came in the final week when they "only" beat Idaho 45-9 as 37-point favorites. Toledo meanwhile lost two its last three games after an 8-1 start, with one of those being a covering 31-24 road defeat at Northern Illinois, the BCS Buster out of the MAC.
If Utah State facing a MAC school on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium sounds familiar, it is because the Aggies played in this very same bowl game last season vs. Ohio, where they blew a 13-point lead and lost 24-23. This season their two losses were by two points at Big Ten Champion Wisconsin and by three points at another bowl team in BYU, as the Aggies went undefeated in the WAC and quietly finished the season ranked 22nd on the final BCS Standings. Utah State was very solid on both sides of the football. It ranked 26th in total offense at 460.7 yards per game with tremendous balance, tying for 13th in rushing average at 5.2 yards per carry and tying for 18th in passing average at 8.3 yards per attempt. Utah State was just as impressive on defense, maybe even more so considering the offensive minded teams in the WAC. They finished 15th in the country on total defense allowing only 322.7 yards per game on a scant 2.9 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass attempt, and they were eighth in scoring defense at only 15.4 points per contest.
Toledo opened up the season by taking Arizona into overtime before losing on the road 24-17 in a very game effort. The Rockets then reeled off eight consecutive wins and were ranked 23rd in the country before losing two of their last three games as mentioned. Toledo was on par with Utah State offensively, averaging 456.1 total yards on 4.9 yards per rush and 7.7 yards per pass attempt. However, consider that most of that came vs. mediocre (or worse) MAC defenses and that the Rockets could struggle to approach those averages vs. the great Utah State defense. The biggest concern for Toledo though is its defense. In fact, the Rockets were slightly outgained this season, allowing a distressing 464.1 total yards per game on a generous 4.9 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per pass.
Aside from the 10-1-1 overall ATS record this year Utah State is also 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games vs. non-conference opponents. Toledo is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game.
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Nevada +9 -110 over ArizonaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s offense versus offense here. With two of the most balanced attacks in the nation going at it expect to see plenty of scoring and it would not surprise us one bit to see the Wolfpack come out on top against a Wildcats defense that is undersized, inexperienced and razor-thin. The Wildcats have shuffled players around on defense all year but still can’t stop the bleeding. They set a school record for yardage allowed this year. Arizona will have to play at a site where the cold and altitude favor the opponent and where the ‘Cats will practice only once. Arizona had its eye on the Las Vegas Bowl, but instead fell to the Pac-12's final bowl slot.
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The Nevada defense played much better down the stretch. They come into this Bowl game off their best offensive half of the season against a strong Boise State defense in which they racked up 379 yards. It's true that Nevada’s Chris Ault's bowl record leaves something to be desired but ASU’s Rich Rodriguez is 1-5 against the postseason number himself, with three of the losses falling at least four touchdowns away from the spread. The setup of this one favors the dog. We like them to win outright but will gladly take the generous points.
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Toledo +10½ over Utah StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The favored Aggies posted better stats than Toledo but one must look at the level of competition each club faced before putting too much weight on numbers. Utah State’s residency in the WAC had it playing its final six games against much lesser talent in the weak conference compared to the Rockets, who reside in the always tough MAC. When the Aggies faced two quality defenses in BYU and Wisconsin, they only managed to score 17 points combined.
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Toledo went 9-3 this season. All three losses were by seven points each with one of those occurring in OT against Arizona in its first game of the year. In other words, the Rockets have not lost all year by the margin being offered here and they played a tougher schedule than the Aggies. They played in this same Bowl game last year and faced another MAC squad, the Ohio Bobcats and lost 24-23. The disrespect the Rockets are being shown in this line will surely motivate them even more in what figures to be a close game between two fairly evenly matched clubs. Take the points.
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Golden State +6 over ATLANTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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By stunning the Heat in Miami, the Warriors proved there is nothing fluky about their best start since 1991-92. Golden State is 5-1 on a seven-game road trip and they've won 10 of their last 12, boasting a 7-2 mark against teams with winning records. The Warriors are also 14-1 when winning the rebounding battle and that bodes very well here as Atlanta ranks 26th in rebounding.
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Atlanta is the other surprise team in the NBA with a 14-6 mark. However, Atlanta has played Charlotte three times in its last 10 games and Washington, Cleveland and Orlando once each. That’s six softies in 10 games and while a win is still a win, the Hawks strength of schedule ranks 29th in the NBA while the Warriors ranks third. The Warriors beat these Hawks back in California by four on a night in which they did not shoot well. Since then, confidence is higher and it’s hard to overlook that 14-1 mark against teams they out-rebound. Better team taking points is appealing.
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RHODE ISLAND +106 over SMUFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mustangs take their 8-1 record to Rhode Island where they are a small favorite over the 2-7 Rams. While spotting the small price looks appealing on paper, we’re urging you not to take the bait.
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SMU’s strength of schedule ranks 143rd in the country. They’ve played a slew of weak teams and even with that, their statistical numbers are very average. Rhode Island’s schedule has been much tougher with games against #7 Ohio State, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Providence and George Mason among others. That’s not an easy non-conference schedule. URI lost by just 11 to OSU and by just 5 to the Hall. New Rams Coach Dan Hurley (a hire widely acclaimed as one of the best in the nation) will finally get an opportunity to implement his aggressive, attacking style of play on both ends of the court against a beatable Mustang squad in much the same way he used it to beat Auburn. These non-conference records before the “real” season begins can be very misleading and we find a great example of that here.
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MEMPHIS +4 over LouisvilleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A ranked team favored by a small number on the road is a strong angle we always like to take a close look at and we find another one here with the sixth ranked Cardinals playing at Memphis. For the second straight year, the Tigers are not projected to do so well. Those predictions were fairly accurate a year ago when Memphis lost eight games and were ousted in the first round of the NCAA tournament. What is not revealed in all of that is how close they were in almost every loss during the regular season. We mention that because the Tigers are a year more experienced and battle tested. This year they’re just as talented and they’re off to decent 6-2 start. They’ve won four in a row, they’re still an outstanding offensive club and they rarely lose at home.
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Louisville comes in with an impressive 8-1 record with only loss occuring against Duke. Still, we can’t get too excited about a team that has beaten Manhattan, Samford, Miami (Ohio), Illinois State, Charleston and the UMKC Kangaroos. Louisville has played one true road game this year, at Charleston, and until we see them prove themselves on the road in a game like this, we’re not buying its #6 ranking. Upset alert is on.
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Jamie Varnerover +116 over Melvin GuillardFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two fighters with seemingly similar fighting styles and career paths square off in what should be an exciting lightweight fight. Throughout their careers, both fighters have been plagued by inconsistencies as well as questions about their desire and focus. Both have the opportunity to prove their detractors wrong here. The former WEC champion Jamie Varner (20-7-1-2 No Contests) has come back from the depths of near retirement and salvaged his career going 1-1 this year, including scoring a knockout victory over renowned prospect Edson Barboza. Taking his last fight on short notice, Varner put on a potential fight of the year performance against Joe Lauzon before succumbing to a triangle choke. Despite the loss it is clear that Varner's heart is back into fighting as he is displaying the form that made him a champion.
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Guillard (47-12-3-1 No Contest) is an explosive striker with good wrestling. When Guillard is on, he looks unbeatable, when he is off his game he often loses in stunning fashion. The question in all his fights is which Melvin Guillard will show up. Like Varner, Guillard comes into this fight off of a loss and has lost three of his last four fights overall. We trust that the crafty Varner will be able to keep distance and withstand, as well as counter Guillard's striking. Both fighters are about equal in terms of wrestling with a slight advantage to Guillard, however, should the fight go to the ground, Varner has the edge as Guillard has proven to be submission prone.
Scott Delaney
53-31 comp play run following Thursday's winner on the Knicks over the Lakers and last night's on the T'wolves at the Hornets.
Saturday's comp selection is in college hoops on Louisville over Memphis.
Normally I'd be hesitant about this old school rivalry, but not this year.
Now with how well the sixth-ranked Cardinals are playing and the fact they've already taken on Northern Iowa, Missouri and Duke, and are well-tested for this rivalry game.
I know Louisville is already playing without center Gorgui Dieng, who broke his left wrist in last month's Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. And I heard coach Rick Pitino has said he has other players hurting as well and it has him being more cautious in practice.
But I'm calling smoke screen.
The Cardinals will be just fine today in this game, and I'll count on that defense that is forcing more than 22 turnovers a game and lead the nation in turnover margin at plus-9.2. Louisville has scored 35 percent of its points off turnovers.
Louisville had seven players in double figures in last season's meeting and has won three straight and eight of the last 12 in this annual affair.
The Cardinals are in on ATS runs of 11-4 in non-conference play and 14-4 overall. Lay the road chalk.
3♦ LOUISVILLE
Chuck O'Brien
My free winner for Saturday is an early one, as I like the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers to get it done over the Butler Bulldogs. Yes, I know this has always been a tough rivalry, and I know you don't underestimate Butler, the two-time national runner-up. But I still can't get that ass-whooping Indiana put on Duke out of my head.
And if the Hoosiers are going to get up for any other game, it's going to be this one. Trust me, even Indiana knows those goose bumps you get when walking into Hinkle Fieldhouse are for all basketball enthusiasts. It's historic. It means something.
Fortunately for the Hoosiers, this one is at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in the Close the Gap Crossroads Classic in Indianapolis. So avoiding that small-school atmosphere is a plus
I'm pretty sure it's safe to say Indiana will be Butler's toughest test since its eighth-seeded team almost pulled off a shocker in the 2011 national championship game against UConn. But the Hoosiers are so much better.
Indiana is not only atop the polls, but it also ranks No. 1 with its scoring offense, averaging 89.1 points per game, and No. 1 with its scoring margin, which is 31.7 points per win. The defense isn't too shabby, ranking 26th in the country in allowing just 57.4 points per game.
Sorry, but Butler just won't have enough for this year's rivalry. Take the Hoosiers.
2♦ INDIANA
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie is the Over in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl between Toledo and Utah State.
With the Rockets main guns RB Fluellen, and QB Owens back operating at full strength after suffering ankle injuries late in the season, will look for the points to pile up in this one.
Toledo also features the one-and-only Bernard Reedy who has scored touchdowns this season both on a kick return and a punt return, not to mention his 82 receptions for over 1,000 yards.
Toledo will be making their third straight bowl appearance, and if this one is like their previous pair (68 and 83 combined points) then this one in Boise should have little trouble climbing Over the posted price.
Looking at the Aggies side of the ball, they did play that 6-3 defensive battle against BYU back in early October, but since that stalemate, State has averaged nearly 45 points per game over their final six efforts of the regular season.
A glance at the weather forecast shows no interference from Mother Nature, so why not expect the points to fly in this one?
Toledo-Utah State Over the total.
3♦ TOLEDO-UTAH STATE OVER
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday is going to be on the Georgia Bulldogs, as I think they're getting off cheap against Iona tonight in college hoops, and should be able to cover the number over the Gaels.
This one being inside Stegeman Coliseum, in Athens, Georgia, I don't think the Bulldogs will have trouble once they pull away in the second half.
The reason the number is so low is because the Dawgs are in after back-to-back losses at South Florida by 11 and Georgia Tech by eight. But after an 11-day break during final exams, I think Georgia will be re-focused. Both of Georgia’s wins (Jacksonville and East Tennessee State) have come in Stegeman Coliseum.
The Gaels, from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, are 1-4 away from home, losing its only true road game by two points at Saint Peters. Georgia is 2-1 all-time against MAAC schools.
I'll lay the home chalk in this one, as I believe coach Mark Fox will have his troops focused for this one.
4♦ GEORGIA
Matt Rivers
69-55 free play run coming into Saturday.
Free NBA winner tonight is to take the Wizards plus the points as they play in Miami,
For whatever reason, Washington has been a thorn in Miami's side of late, as the Wizards have actually won OUTRIGHT the last three times the teams have met, including a 105-101 win as the double-digit home underdog on December 4th.
The Wizards have gone 6-2 against the spread the last eight series meetings, so grabbing the points tonight is obviously a high-percentage play.
Miami may be 10-2 straight up at home, but they are just 6-6 against the spread in those twelve home games. Meanwhile, Washington totes is a 1-9 straight up road record, but with the points the Wizards are a competitive 6-3-1 against the spread.
Have to stick with the percentages here and look for Washington to stay inside the number once again.
1♦ WASHINGTON
Bryan Leonard
Boston / San Antonio Under 198
Similar to our 3 Unit Play last night on the Celtics game under, we will take this contest under the total as well. The reasoning is the same as yesterday, and you can view that analysis by clicking on our past picks on our homepage. It would have been a client play but I took out the last 199 on the board (Sorry need to pay the bills LOL). If it gets back to that number consider it a 1 unit selection.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
ARIZONA STATE -15 over Dartmouth: Tough spot here for Dartmouth as they are playing their 6th road game in a row, they have to travel cross country and they are taking on an angry Arizona State squad that is off an embarrassing home loss. I look for this on to be over quite early.
More later