Rob Vinciletti
Cal Poly SLO vs. Fresno State
Play: Cal Poly SLO +1
Cal Poly has won 5 of 6 vs losing teams and all vs the WAC Of late. In the 3 most recent times they entered as a road dog of 3 or less they twice won outright. They have played well on the road this season winning 4 of 5 and covering 4 of 5 on Saturdays. Fresno St is 1-14 straight up vs teams who allow 64 or less points per game and they have lost all 5 games vs an opponent with a winning record. Cal Poly is a live dog here in this one.
Jim Feist
Georgia vs USC
Pick: USC
A long road trip for Georgia, a team on a 4-game skid that can't shoot straight. Georgia shoots .378% from the field, 327th in the nation. They were favored the last game but lost to Georgia Tech at home, 68-56. The Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Now they have to fly across the country for this one against a tough USC defense. The Trojans are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Southeastern. Play USC!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Bowling Green +19.5
This is a game Bowling Green has had circled since getting embarrassed by 35 points at Michigan State last year. With 4 starters and 7 of 8 top scorers back who experienced that loss, I fully expect this motivated Bowling Green squad to give the Spartans a much better challenge this time around. The Falcons have covered the spread in 5 of 7 lined games this season and have a quality win over Temple. It's also worth noting the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. The Spartans are a poor 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 13.0 points or more. In addition, plays against favorites of 10 or more points that check in with 8 or more consecutive wins, provided they are playing on 5 of 6 days' rest, are 80-41 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 16.9 points but have only won by an average of 14.9 points. We'll bet Bowling Green.
Chip Chirimbes
New Mexico vs. Oklahoma State
Play: New Mexico
New Mexico has had big time road experience in a win at Southern Cal over-coming a 24 turnover experience. This contest is in Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City and the Cowboys will be without that 'campus feel.' New Mexico is riding a five-game winning streak and play that really tough defense that give opponents fits.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Northern Colorado +24.5
Marquette is being overvalued here because of its 9-0 start and we'll look to take advantage. History stacks the odds pretty heavily against the Golden Eagles here considering favorites of 10 or more points (MARQUETTE) after 8 or more consecutive wins and playing with 5 or 6 days rest are just 41-80 ATS the last 14 years. In addition, Northern Colorado is a reliable 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog of 10 or more points. Marquette will likely show a little rust, having not played a game in a week, and will be much more concerned with Monday's road test at LSU. We'll take the points.
Steve Janus
Utah State / Ohio Over 59
I'm not huge on either side in this matchup between Utah State and Ohio, as I could see this game going in either direction. What I do like is for these two teams to combine for at least 60 points. Ohio comes in averaging 31.0 points behind an offense that averages 453.5 total yards a game. Utah State put up 34.5 points behind 458.7 yards of total offense. With the extra time between the end of the regular season and this game, I expect both offenses to have installed game plans that will allow them to move the ball all over the opposing teams defense.
Utah State's biggest weapon is their ground game, that finished 6th in the country at 277.5 ypg.Ohio's defense allowed just 126.5 ypg against the run, but those numbers don't tell the whole story. The MAC is primarily a passing conference. The best running team in the MAC is Temple, who rushed for 308 yards against the Bobcats defense on their way to 35 points.
Ohio brings a balanced offensive attack to the table, averaging 202.6 ypg on the ground and 250.9 ypg through the air. Starting quarterback Tyler Tettleton threw for 3,082 yards and 26 touchdowns. The Aggies were 76th i the country against the pass, giving up 240.0 ypg. They also have an overrated run defense. The allowed just 128.0 rushing yards on average, but 6 times they gave up 145 or more, including two of their last three to finish the season.
The OVER is 10-1 in Bobcats last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0, 7-0 in Bobcats last 7 non-conference games, and 4-1-1 in Aggies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Detroit +3.5
Tough spot for Mississippi State, playing its first true road game of the season versus an experienced Detroit team. Laying points on the road with the Bulldogs has been a big no-no lately as they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The Titans lost at Mississippi State by just 6 points last season and will be hungry to return the favor. Bet Detroit.
Joe Gavazzi
Wyoming +7
The simplistic way to view this game is to back a Temple team who should have great success on the ground at 257/5.3 vs a Wyoming defensive front that allows 231/5.1. The Owls also have the better defense, allowing just 14 PPG and 4.9 YP play. At 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, they covered the number by a net 94 points. It was a solid year of transition under first year HC Addazio. But a closer inspection shows that it is Wyoming, under third year HC Christensen, who made the bigger move. Cowboys recorded an 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS mark, following their 3-9 SU season of 2010. Most notable is Christensen's coaching record which finds him 13-3 ATS dog when not at home. A big reason for their success is that they were fourth in the nation in TO margin. They feature more offensive balance, running and passing for at least 187 YPG. And they did it against a far tougher schedule, playing in the MWC as opposed to the MAC-East. The altitude site of Albuquerque is a subtle, and meaningful, factor favoring the cowboys.
DAVID BANKS
UL Lafayette / San Diego State Over
The San Diego State Aztecs (8-4, 5-7 ATS) will be gunning for successive bowl game victories when they locks horns with the UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (8-4, 8-4 ATS) the New Orleans Bowl; kick-off from the Mercedes Benz Superdome is set to go live on ESPN, ESPN 3D, and ESPN3.com at 9:00 ET.
Tonight’s postseason match-up with the Aztecs marks the first ever bowl appearance for the Ragin’ Cajuns who took third place in the Sun Belt conference after compiling a 6-2 SU record in the regular season. Along with winning five more games than it did a year ago, the Ragin' Cajuns were money in the bank for CFB bettors all season long, as its 8-4 record versus the closing pointspread found it in good company with two other Louisiana schools (LA Tech, LSU) ranked in the top 20 against the oddsmakers. QB Blain Gautier was the ringleader of ULL’s offensive attack that averaged 250.9 YPG through the air (#39) and scored an average of 32.3 PPG (#32). Unfortunately, the Aztecs excelled in defending the pass this season (#31 at 199.2 YPG), so it will be up to the Ragin' Cajuns ground game (#86) to succeed to allow for some big strikes via the passing game. Though Lafayette only won three of its seven games played away from Cajun Field, it covered the closing number in six of seven tries as a visitor most recently cashing as 14-point underdogs at Arizona (45-37).
San Diego State qualified for its first bowl game in 12 years last season under the watchful eye of former head coach Brady Hoke. Though he bolted to Michigan before their Poinsettia Bowl clash with Navy, the Aztecs took it to the Middies 35-14 and covered as short three-point chalk. With 13 starters back from that team in 2011, the Aztecs figured to compete within the top heavy Mountain West Conference. Unfortunately, SDST wasn’t able to tally victories against TCU, Boise State, or Wyoming in the regular season and had to settle for a fourth place finish with a 4-3 SU MWC record. With most of his favorite targets not back this year, QB Ryan Lindley wasn’t able to match his 2010 output. Still, he threw for 2740 yards and ended up with a 20/8 TD/INT ratio. That said; he could shine in tonight’s spot considering the Ragin' Cajuns give up an average of 248.7 YPG through the air (#92). His job will be made even easier if RB Ronnie Hillman gets going as well; with UL-LAF giving up an average of 144.5 YPG on the ground (#56), look for the sophomore to get his as well!
This will be these programs first encounter on the college gridiron. The Ragin' Cajuns have covered 10 of their last 13 games played on field turf, and stand an impressive 7-0 ATS their L/7 and 13-3 ATS the L/16 times they went off the betting board dogged. SDST checks in 3-2 SU & ATS the L/5 times it was favored by six-points or less dating back to 2006, but stands just 1-4 ATS its L/5 as a favorite and on field turf. The ‘over’ is 7-1 in ULL’s L/8 nonconference tussles.
Joseph D'Amico
Notre Dame vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana -9
For the first time in 4 years, Indiana is ranked. The #20 team in the nation are among the Division 1 leaders in 3-point%, FG%, scoring, and scoring margin. They are 5-0 ATS and are outscoring opponents by an average of 21.3 PPG. With wins over NC State and particularly LW's victory over Kentucky, the Rebels are a force in the NCAAB. This is a team loaded with talent and depth. They have 5 players averaging DD's. Losing Tim Abromaitis has killed the Irish. They can beat teams like Delaware State but each of the four quality opponents they have faced ( Missouri, Georgia, Gonzaga, and Maryland) have beaten them. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS their L5 non-Conference games, 4-0 ATS their L4 games played vs. teams with a winning record, and 5-0 ATS their L5 games played overall. The Irish are 1-9-2 ATS their L12 non-Conference games, 0-5 ATS their L5 games played at a neutral site, and 0-7-2 ATS their L9 games played overall. Take Indiana.
Jack Jones
Temple -7
I'm siding with the Temple Owls in the New Mexico Bowl Saturday over the Wyoming Cowboys. This is a great match-up for Temple as they should be able to run the football at will all game long while shutting down Wyoming's offense.
Temple ranks 7th in the country in rushing (256.7 yards/game). Wyoming ranks 95th in the country in total defense (432.5 yards/game) against opponents who only average 384 yards/game this season, so their stop unit is sub-par to say the least. The Cowboys are atrocious against the run, ranking 111th in the FBS in run defense (230.1 yards/game).
The Cowboys had a solid 8-4 season this year thanks to an offense that averaged 400.3 yards/game. But really that's not very impressive considering the 12 opponents they faced this season gave up an average of 413 yards/game, so they played mostly soft defenses all year. Temple ranks 15th in the country in total defense (315.5 yards/game) while giving up only 13.8 points/game. This is one of the best stop units they have faced in 2011.
Temple is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games overall. The Owls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Wyoming is 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after having won 3 of their last 4 games. Bet Temple Saturday.
Matt Rivers
Utah State -2
I love what Frank Solich has done with this Ohio program making them into a legitimate MAC contender but after that extremely difficult championship loss against Northern Illinois I'm not so sure they can recover and beat a talented offensive squad like Utah State.
The Aggies served notice early on this season in week one going to the Plains and outplaying the defending national champion Auburn Tigers. No doubt Cam Newton and the bulk of that team was gone and Gene Chizik had a ridiculously young team in its place but for a far smaller west coast team called "Utah State" to go on the road and compete with a big bad SEC school and deserve a win, which they really did, shows a lot about their makeup and character.
Robert Turbin is no joke as a running back and being on the blue turf in Boise should be more of a home feel for State. These guys come in winners of five in a row and do not shrivel up at all on the road. State outplayed BYU a while back on national tv in Provo only to lose late, 27-24, on a tipped ball in a beyond easy cover. They also won on the big island upsetting what had been a top 25 Hawaii team so these guys will be more than ready to go today in this postseason spot.
Ohio is all right and should compete. 9-4 is 9-4 and Tyler Tettleton is a solid quarterback with a receiver in LaVon Brazill who is one of the best in the MAC. But the Bobcats have won a bunch of games by the skin of their teeth and just completely imploded against Northern Illinois blowing the 20-0 third quarter lead. I generally don't mind teams off of bad beats but this is a bit more than that as it was a season-ender leading into this somewhat exhibition type game a few weeks later.
Look for Utah State to score a lot of points and prove they should have been laying more like a touchdown in this spot!
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is to play the Dallas-Tampa Bay contest under the total.
I know that Tampa Bay has generally been an over team this season - overs in each of their last pair, and eight of their thirteen games played this year - but the Buccaneers have really been struggling on offense during their seven game losing streak, and I don't see them mustering much against a Dallas defense that absolutely needs a lock-down game after blowing last week's 12-point lead with just under six minutes remaining at home.
The Bucs have topped 19-points just once during their seven game skid, and they will be facing a Cowboys team that has been under the total in two of their last three games, and six of their last nine overall.
Rob Ryan's defense totally imploded last Sunday night at home versus the Giants, so expect a stauncher effort versus Josh Freeman who now has 18 interceptions this season after tossing a pair in last week's loss to Jacksonville.
This game falls just under the posted total. Play it low in Tampa this Saturday night.
3♦ UNDER
Black Widow
1* Evansville -4
This is a very generous line to get Evansville at home Saturday. This team has played their best basketball at home this year, going 4-2 which includes a win over Butler. Their only losses have come against Indiana and TCU at home. Tennessee Tech is 5-4 on the season, but they have played six of their first nine games at home. They have double-digit blowout losses to Miami and Duquesne on the road, while beating lowly High Point 62-57 away from home for their lone road win. Evansville is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1997. The Purple Aces are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games after a win by 15 points or more since 1997. Take Evansville and lay the points.
Larry Ness
St. Joseph's -3.5
Phil Martelli had his youngest team in his tenure at St Joe's last year and it resulted in an 11-22 season. However, this guy's a basketball coach and I expect this year's team to be "movin' on up" in the Atlantic 10. Martelli's an "old master" and his team has opened 7-3. Guards Jones (19.4-3.8-3.2) and Galloway (15.6-4.6) comprise a dynamic backcourt duo. A pair of 6-8 players, Aiken (11.3-5.4) and Roberts (10.4-5.7) both seem headed for solid years and you KNOW Martelli and his team would love to beat fellow "Big Five" school Villanova. The Wildcats have shown very little to open the new season. Villanova opened the year with four consecutive victories before falling in back-to-back games to St Louis and Santa Clara in the 76 Classic. The Wildcats were then able to get back on track with a 73-65 home win over Penn but have since lost 81-71 in Madison Square Garden to Missouri plus 78-67 at Temple. The Wildcats lost guards Fisher (15.6) and Stokes (14.9) from last year plus the 6-8 Pena (9.8-7.1). Wayns (18.7-3.7-5.2) has been highly productive out of the backcourt teamed with Cheek (12.4-5.2). The 6-10 Yarou checks in with 15.2 PPG on 56.5 percent FG efficiency and leads the team in rebounding at 8.3 RPG. However, the Wildcats are 1-7 ATS and that lone cover came against Cal-Riverside. I don't expect 'Nova to have any more success at St Joe's than they did at Temple. The Hawks end a three-game slide vs the Wildcats here with a double digit win.