Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, December 19,2009

Wunderdog
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Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Play: Wyoming +10.5
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Fresno State will be making their 10th Bowl appearance in the last 11 years, and their second straight trip to the New Mexico Bowl. They lost to Colorado State last year. It should also be noted that in the nine previous Bowls, the Bulldogs winning margin exceeded this pointspread just once, and that was a 12-point win. The Cowboys last appeared in a Bowl in 2004. They were posted as a 12.5 point underdog to UCLA and won the game outright. This will be just their second Bowl appearance since 1993. Wyoming was just 6-6 on the season, but they were 7-2 ATS in their final nine games and should be excited to be here. The public likes a team that can score and that can result in juiced lines. Fresno State certainly has shown that ability as they averaged 34.3 points per game this season. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they gave up nearly 28 ppg. They allowed 132 points in their last three! The Bulldogs won four of their last five to get here, but did not have a winning margin greater than 10 points in the process. Big underdogs in Bowls have a long history of getting the money as they usually turn out to be the more motivated team. The Bulldogs carry just an 8-22 ATS mark in their last 30 as a favorite while Wyoming has built off an ATS win to go 27-13 ATS in their next game. Fresno is just 2-11 ATS the past two seasons when coming off a road game, and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 50+ in their last game. Under Pat Hill, this team is 39-53 ATS as a favorite including 15-25 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. I think the points are too generous here.

Alex Smart
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Wyoming @ Fresno St.
PICK: Wyoming +11
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University Stadium will be the sight of the New Mexico Bowl where The Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4, 7-4 ATS) will look to take care of some unfinished business when they clash with the Wyoming Cowboys (6-6, 8-3 ATS) in this college football betting battle. Last year, the Bulldogs were dropped 40-35 in this game against Colorado State, and they'll be hoping for better in 2009's installment.
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It took until the dying moments of the season, but Wyoming became bowl eligible with a 17-16 victory over Colorado State in its final game to reach this point. It was the fifth time in its L/6 games that the Cowboys were held to 17 points or less. They were shut out more times this season (3) than any other bowl team in the country, and they didn't defeat a single team that is bowling this year. Offensively, the Cowboys are an absolute mess. They rank 112th in the land in total offense at 298.7 yards per game, and they are only averaging 16.9 points per game (111th in the country). Wyoming only scored 21 offensive touchdowns all season, an average which absolutely will not cut it if it is to spring the upset in the New Mexico Bowl come Saturday.
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Fresno State has the ability to score points in bunches, especially if RB Ryan Mathews is healthy. The junior had a fantastic regular season finale against Illinois, running for 173 yards and three TDs, which raised his already gaudy numbers on the season. Mathews rushed for 1,664 yards and had another 122 through the air to record a total of 17 touchdowns overall. This team isn't inept in the passing department either. The Bulldogs may only rank 79th in the land in passing yardage (204.3 yards per game), but QB Ryan Colburn completed 60.2% of his passes for 2,333 yards and 18 TDs overall. If Fresno has an Achilles heel, it's that it has a hard time stopping the run. HC Pat Hill's bunch allowed an average of 212.4 yards per game this year on the ground; the 111th best mark in the nation. The team has given up at least 21 points in five straight games, and against FBS foes this year, allowed 30.4 points per game. Much like their counterparts in this game, the Bulldogs haven't had much luck against bowl eligible teams, as they are only 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS in their five tries on the year.
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This game could be a lot closer than the experts think. Wyoming may not have the offensive firepower to stick around with the Bulldogs if they really start rolling, but as poor as Fresno's defense is, sticking in front of a double-digit spread doesn't seem much to ask. Look for the Cowboys to do just that and play within the number.
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Play On: Wyoming Cowboys

Jim Feist

Hawks vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls +5

Chicago has been terrible on the road, but very good at home, with a winning record. After a terrible stretch they are 2-2 their last 4 games, with the only losses to the Celtics and Lakers. They are 2-1-1 ATS the last 4 games. Atlanta just played a string of home games and this is a tough situational spot, playing their third game in four nights, while the home team is rested. A good spot for the rested home dog. Play the Bulls.

SPORTS WAGERS
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Wyoming +10.5 over Fresno State
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Fresno State is the sucker bet of 2009. The public has jumped all over Fresno State after an 8-4 season, forgetting the weak schedule and atrocious defense played by the Bulldogs throughout the season. Yes, Wyoming probably doesn’t deserve to play in this game with a 6-6 record but to borrow a quote from The Wire “Deserves got nothing to do with it.” Wyoming managed to win three games on the road and come out of MWC conference play with a respectable 4-4 record. They struggled to score points against Texas Christian, Brigham Young, and Texas but managed to score 30 against comparable Fresno State defenses like UNLV and Florida Atlantic. Fresno State allowed opponents to rack up 411 yards per game and ranked third to last in the FBS with only seven interceptions the entire season. They gave up 52 points to Illinois in their final game of the regular season and ranked dead last in the FBS with an astounding 6.2 rush yard per carry average against them. Simply put, the concerns about the Wyoming offense don’t apply to this game and that’s the first reason to seriously consider backing them. Fresno State will score no matter who they play but it’s the way they score you need to be concerned with. RB Ryan Mathews led the NCAA’s in rushing yards with 1664 and you can bet Fresno State will showcase him on national television. Fresno State’s run first offense will yield points but keep the clock moving and combined with the ease the Cowboys will have scoring it’s going to be very unlikely for this game to get out of hand. The style of offense Fresno State runs along with their horrific defense makes laying 10½ points far too risky. Wyoming can win this game outright with a few breaks but am more than happy to take the generous points on a neutral field. Play: Wyoming +10½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL

Dallas (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS)

The undefeated Saints return to the Superdome to continue their march toward perfection against the suddenly struggling Cowboys, who desperately need to break their December hex to keep pace in the playoff chase.

New Orleans pulled out a narrow road victory for the second straight week last Sunday, edging Atlanta 26-23 after blowing a 14-point second-half lead. The Saints failed to cover as a hefty 10-point favorite, following their 33-30 overtime win at Washington as a nine-point chalk. New Orleans continues to boast the No. 1 offense in both yardage (426.1 yards per game) and scoring (35.8 yards per game), with the latter figure being nearly six points higher than the second-place Vikings (29.9 ppg).

The Saints’ defense is just 21st in yielding 347.6 ypg, but even with that, they’re outscoring opponents by more than two TDs per contest, as the defense surrenders 21.1 ppg. Additionally, New Orleans has the No. 2 turnover margin at plus-16.

Dallas is going on its seemingly annual late-season swoon, having dropped both its games this month to fall to 4-10 SU (2-12 ATS) in its last 14 December outings. On Sunday, the Pokes lost to San Diego 20-17 as a 3½-point home chalk, falling to 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Previously, the Cowboys were on a 6-1 SU tear (4-3 ATS) and at the top of the NFC East heading into this month; now they are clinging to the sixth seed as a wild-card prospect.

Dallas still fields the league’s third-best offense at 391.1 ypg, but the squad is only netting 22.8 ppg (13th). The defense has helped make up for that, though, ranking sixth in the league in points allowed at just 17.9 ppg.

These teams last met in December 2006, when New Orleans went to Dallas and administered a 42-17 road beatdown as a 7½-point underdog to move to 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five clashes in this rivalry, dating to the 1998 season. Furthermore, the Saints won from the underdog role in all five of those games, with the first three at the Superdome and the last two at Dallas.

The Saints are just 2-5 ATS since cashing in their first six games of the year and they’re on further ATS hiccups of 1-3-1 in December and 1-5 against NFC opponents. However, they still carry a plethora of positive pointspread runs, including 8-3 at home, 13-5 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home chalk, 10-2 giving 3½ to 10 points, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3 after an ATS loss.

The Cowboys shoulder nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 as an underdog, 1-4 on the road, 2-6 against winning teams and a pathetic 5-15-2 in December, including 0-6 ATS in their last six December road outings dating to 2007. Plus, Dallas has cashed in just three of its last 12 non-division road games.

New Orleans is on “over” rolls of 10-2 in December, 14-4-1 at the dome, 12-4-1 as a home chalk, 19-6-1 against the NFC, 18-8 following a SU win and a lengthy 47-22-2 against winning teams. On the flip side, Dallas is on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 6-2 after a SU loss and 14-6 when coming off a pointspread setback. Finally, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these squads going all the way back to 1994.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

NEW MEXICO BOWL
(at Albuquerque, N.M.)

Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) vs. Fresno State (8-4, 7-4 ATS)

Two teams going in opposite directions kick off the bowl season at University Stadium as slumping Wyoming takes on the red-hot Bulldogs.

Wyoming lost four of six to end the season (4-2 ATS) but edged Colorado State 17-16 in Fort Collins, Colo., in the finale, cashing as a 2½-point underdog and earning itself a postseason bid for the first time in five years. The Cowboys were held to 10 points or less in each of their six losses, getting blanked three times. However, they were plus-7 in turnover margin, which helped them win five games by a touchdown or less and finish fifth in the Mountain West Conference under first-year coach Dave Christensen.

Fresno State wrapped up its regular season with a thrilling 53-52 win in Illinois when the Bulldogs scored with two seconds left and converted the two-point conversion when a tipped pass ended up in the hands of an offensive lineman, who bulled his way into the end zone for the win. Fresno enters this contest having won seven of its last eight games (5-3 ATS), scoring 30 points or more in each of the seven wins.

Wyoming last went bowling in 2004, when it upset UCLA 24-21 in the Las Vegas Bowl as a hefty 12½-point underdog.

This is Fresno State’s second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance and 10th postseason contest in the last 11 years. The Bulldogs, third-place finishers in the Western Athletic Conference, fell to Colorado State 40-35 in last year’s contest, losing outright as two-point favorites. Under 13-year head coach Pat Hill, Fresno State is 5-0 ATS as an underdog in bowl games, but 0-4 ATS as a favorite.

These teams met regularly in the 1990s when both were members of the WAC, with the home team taking each of the last six contests. The most meeting was in 1997 when Fresno State scored a 24-7 home win as a 6½-point chalk.

Wyoming’s offense is 112th in the nation (out of 120), managing just 298.7 total yards per game, and 111th in the country in scoring at just 16.9 points per contest. Defensively, the Cowboys are give up 395.1 total ypg, which ranks 82nd.

The Bulldogs rush for 231.6 ypg, the seventh-highest total in Division I-A, with RB Ryan Mathews doing the bulk of the damage, as he led the nation at 151.3 rushing ypg. Fresno scored 30 points or more in 10 of its 12 games, averaging 34.3 points per game, good for 14th nationally.

Wyoming is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 14-6 in non-conference games, 4-1 agaisnt WAC schools, 27-13 after a spread-cover and 6-2 as an underdog, but it is just 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are on ATS skids of 8-22 as a favorite, 1-6 against Mountain West teams and 9-26 on grass.

The Cowboys have stayed below the posted total in 13 of 19 non-conference games, but topped the total in five of seven against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Fresno State is on “over” runs of 6-2 in bowl games and 5-2 in December.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE

ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
(at St. Petersburg, Fla.)

Central Florida (8-4, 9-2 ATS) vs. Rutgers (8-4, 6-6 ATS)

Playing what is virtually a home game, Central Florida doesn’t have far to travel as it battles Rutgers at Tropicana Field.

Central Florida lost its first two Conference USA games, then won the final six league contests in a row (5-1 ATS) to finish second in the East Division and earn this bowl bid. The Knights went to UAB in the regular-season finale and scored a 34-27 win as a three-point road favorite.

Rutgers finished in a three-way tie for fourth in the Big East, with losses coming to Pitt, West Virginia and Cincinnati – the league’s top three teams – as well as Syracuse. Despite falling to West Virginia 24-21 as a two-point home chalk in their finale, the Scarlet Knights are on a 4-2 SU and ATS run, winning three of four on the highway.

Central Florida is back in the postseason after going 4-8 last year. The Knights have never won a bowl game, suffering narrow losses to Mississippi State (10-3 in the 2007 Liberty Bowl) and Nevada (49-48 in the 2005 Hawaii Bowl) in their first two tries. Meanwhile, Rutgers is in its fifth straight bowl, having won each of the last three, including last year’s 29-23 victory over North Carolina State in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, pushing as a six-point favorite.

This is the first-ever meeting between these schools. However, Central Florida has lost 15 straight games to Big East opponents.

UCF’s strength is on defense, which ranks fifth nationally in sacks (3.1 per game) and fourth against the run (82.5 rushing ypg allowed). Meanwhile, Rutgers RB Joe Martinek paced the offense with 923 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, with freshman QB Tom Savage throwing for 1,917 yards, 12 TDs and six INTs. Rutgers averaged 27.5 points a game this season, while allowing just 17.4.

UCF is just 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 against Big East teams and just 13-27-1 ATS in its last 31 non-conference games, but the team is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-0 away from home, 6-1 as underdogs, 4-0 this season on artificial turf and 8-3 after a straight-up win. Rutgers is on modest ATS streaks of 3-0-1 in bowl games, 4-1-1 in December, 4-1 against Conference USA teams and 3-1-1 in non-conference action.

For Central Florida, the under is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference games, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-2 after a straight-up win. The Scarlet Knights are on “under” runs of 8-3 overall, 6-0 in non-conference action, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 as a favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Michigan (5-4, 1-5 ATS) at (1) Kansas (9-0, 4-2 ATS)

The top-ranked Jayhawks shoot for their 10th straight win to open the season when they host slumping Michigan at Phog Allen Fieldhouse.

The Wolverines are coming off Sunday’s 75-64 victory over Detroit, but came up short as a 12-point home underdog, their fifth consecutive non-cover in lined games. Since opening the season with three straight victories, Michigan has lost four of its last six, including a 68-52 setback at Utah in its only true road game so far.

Kansas has annihilated eight of its first nine opponents, the only close contest being a 57-55 victory over Memphis as a 10½-point favorite in on a neutral court in St. Louis, Mo. The Jayhawks’ other eight victories were by margins of 36, 50, 30, 37, 67, 12, 35 and 25 points. Most recently, Bill Self’s squad has routed Radford 99-64 as a 33-point home favorite on Dec. 9 and La Salle 90-65 as a 22½-point chalk in Kansas City last Saturday.

Michigan is 5-0 all-time against the Jayhawks, but the last meeting was in 1992, when the Wolverines cruised to an 86-74 victory.

For the season, Michigan is barely outscoring its opponents (67.9-65.6) and it has been outshot 46.3 percent (33.1 percent on three-pointers) to 40.3 percent (29.1 percent on three-pointers). Conversely, Kansas is averaging 90.3 ppg on 51.2 percent shooting (44 percent on three-pointers) while holding opponents to 57.7 ppg on 34.3 percent shooting (28.7 percent on three-pointers).

In addition to failing to cover in their last five lined outings, the Wolverines are in ATS funks of 4-10-1 on the highway, 1-4 against the Big 12, 0-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a SU victory. Kansas is on pointspread tears of 19-6-1 overall, 35-15-1 at home, 13-3 on Saturday, 19-9 in non-conference play and 14-6-1 after a SU win, but the Jayhawks have failed to cash in eight consecutive games against Big Ten opponents.

The under is on runs of 16-5-1 for Michigan on the road, 6-1 for Kansas against the Big Ten, 16-5 for Kansas after a SU victory and 5-1 for Kansas following a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and UNDER

Stanford (5-4, 3-3-1 ATS) at Northwestern (8-1, 5-2 ATS)

Northwestern tries for a rare eighth straight victory as Stanford visits Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston, Ill., for in a Big Ten/Pac-10 clash.

The Cardinal’s two-game winning streak ended with Wednesday’s 71-70 home loss to Oklahoma State as a 2½-point favorite, their second straight non-cover following a 3-0 ATS run. On the bright side, Stanford has scored at least 70 points in six of its last eight games – averaging 79.3 ppg over the past three – and it has not lost consecutive contests all year.

The Wildcats have ripped off eight straight victories since losing 67-54 to No. 11 Butler as a 4½-point home underdog back on Nov. 18. Northwestern has posted three straight double-digit wins this month, including Wednesday’s 84-54 rout of Northern Florida as a 19½-point home chalk. The Wildcats have averaged 74.1 ppg in their eight victories, and they’ve held all eight of those opponents to 65 points or less, with four of the last six foes scoring 58 or less.

This is the fourth season in a row that these teams have squared off. Stanford has won the last three (2-1 ATS), including a 65-59 home victory as a 4½-point chalk exactly one year ago.

Stanford is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday outings, but from there the pointspread trends are all positive, including 12-4-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 versus the Big Ten, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-0-2 after a SU defeat and 7-3-2 after a non-cover. Like Stanford, the Wildcats have struggled on Saturday (2-5 ATS last seven), but they’ve cashed in four straight lined games overall.

The over is on runs of 17-8 for the Cardinal on the road, 5-1 for Stanford on Saturday, 20-8-1 for Northwestern at home and 11-2 for Northwestern at home against teams with a losing road mark. Conversely, the under is on stretches of 5-2 for Stanford overall, 4 -1 for Stanford against the Big Ten and 7-3 for the Wildcats after a SU victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(10) North Carolina (8-2, 4-4 ATS) vs. (2) Texas (9-0, 5-2 ATS)
(at Arlington, Texas)

The day’s only battle between Top 10 squads comes from Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where the 10th-ranked Tar Heels attempt to hand No. 2 Texas its first loss of the season.

After being held to a season-low in points in a 68-66 loss at Kentucky two Saturdays ago, North Carolina rebounded in a big way last Saturday, routing Presbyterian 103-64 in a non-lined home game. The Tar Heels have played just three games away from Chapel Hill, N.C., going 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS. Also, their two losses this season came against teams currently ranked No. 3 (Kentucky) and No. 5 (Syracuse).

The Longhorns have prevailed by double digits in every game this season, with the closest contest being a 78-62 rout of Pittsburgh as a 7½-point chalk at Madison Square garden on Nov. 24. Texas has won its last four games – all at home against USC, Long Beach State, Texas State and Texas Pan-American – by respective margins of 19, 33, 33 and 62 points.

These teams met in the second round of the 2004 NCAA Tournament, with the Longhorns scoring a 78-75 victory as a one-point underdog.

North Carolina has scored at least 80 points in seven of its 10 games, averaging 84.4 ppg on 51.2 percent shooting. The Longhorns have bettered the Tar Heels’ offensive output, though, scoring 85.4 ppg (51.9 percent shooting), including averaging 99.3 ppg in the last three contests. Also, Texas rates a big edge on defense, allowing 53.8 ppg (31.6 percent shooting) while North Carolina has yielded 71 ppg (41.6 percent shooting). Only one opponent has tallied more than 62 points against Texas, with five scoring 54 points or less; the Tar Heels have surrendered more than 70 points seven times.

The Heels are on pointspread surges of 10-4 overall, 42-14 in non-conference play, 6-2 versus the Big 12, 7-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 on Saturday, 9-3 after a SU win, 9-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on Saturday. Texas is also riding a series of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-2 overall (all in non-conference), 5-2 against the ACC, 4-0 at neutral venues, 6-1 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU victory, but the ‘Horns have failed to cover in six of their last eight on Saturday.

The under is 4-0 in UNC’s last four on Saturday, but the over is 4-0 in Texas’ last four at neutral venues and 6-1 in its last seven against the ACC. Also, the 2004 meeting between these schools barely skipped over the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Xavier (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at (21) Butler (7-3, 4-6 ATS)

Butler returns to the court for the first time since outlasting Ohio State last Saturday, as it welcomes the Musketeers to Hinkle Fieldhouse for a non-conference clash.

Xavier has alternated SU wins and losses in its last seven contests and ATS wins and losses in its last seven lined games. On Sunday, the Musketeers outlasted then-No. 19 Cincinnati 83-79 in double-overtime and covered as a 3½-point home favorite. Terrell Holloway had 26 points while big man Jason Love contributed 19 rebounds in helping Xavier knockoff its crosstown rivals. The victory followed a 71-56 loss at Kansas State as a 6 ½-point road underdog, the Musketeers’ lone game as a visitor this season.

The Bulldogs rallied past No. 13 Ohio State 74-66, holding on to cover as a five-point home favorite. Butler is 3-0 at Hinkle Fieldhouse (1-2 ATS), averaging 77 ppg (46.1 percent shooting) while allowing 65 ppg (49.7 percent). The Bulldogs three losses this year came against Top 25 competition: 82-73 to No. 22 Minnesota; 70-69 to No. 19 Clemson; 72-65 to No. 15 Georgetown.

Butler upended Xavier 74-65 as an eight-point road underdog last year. Prior to that, these teams hadn’t met since 1997 and 1998, and Xavier won both those contests (1-1 ATS).

The Musketeers are on ATS upticks of 8-3 overall, 10-3 in non-league contests and 15-7-1 versus opponents with a winning record, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the highway. Meanwhile, with last Saturday’s spread-cover against Ohio State, Butler is now 39-18-1 ATS in its last 58 non-conference games, but the Bulldogs are otherwise in ATS funks of 4-10 overall, 2-7 at home, 3-7 against winning teams and 1-5 on Saturday.

Xavier is riding “under” streaks of 13-6-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 6-0 after a SU win and 5-0 after a non-cover. However, the Musketeers are 5-1-1 “over” in their last seven on Saturday, while Butler is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 on Saturday and 8-3 in non-league action. Finally, last year’s meeting between these schools at Xavier hurdled the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

(15) Gonzaga (8-2, 3-3-1 ATS) vs. (7) Duke (8-1, 5-3 ATS)
(at New York)

Duke returns to its home away from home – Madison Square Garden – for the third time this season as it battles the Bulldogs in the day’s only other matchup between Top 25 squads.

Gonzaga had a five-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago, losing 77-75 to Wake Forest as a 6½-point home favorite, but then rebounded with a pair of double-digit wins over Augustana, Ill. (79-40 in a non-lined home game) and Davidson (103-91, pushing as a 12-point chalk in Seattle last Saturday). The Zags have scored more than 70 points in nine of 10 games this year, the only exception being a 61-59 overtime win over Cincinnati in the Maui Invitational championship game on Nov. 25.

The Blue Devils bounced back from their only loss of the season – 73-69 at Wisconsin – with a pair of non-league home wins over St. John’s on Dec. 5 (80-71, failing as a 17-point favorite) and Gardner-Webb on Tuesday (113-68, cashing as a 34½-point chalk). Duke has scored at least 68 points in seven of its first eight games – including topping triple digits three times in the last seven contests – but after allowing just 58.2 ppg in their first six games, the Blue Devils have surrendered 70.7 ppg in their last three.

Duke won its first two games at Madison Square Garden, topping Arizona State 64-53 as a 10-point favorite and pounding No. 13 UConn 68-59 as a 3½-point chalk to win the NIT Season Tip-Off. The Blue Devils are 12-1 in their last 13 visits to the Garden, including an ongoing five-game winning streak. One of Duke’s victories at MSG came against Gonzaga exactly three years ago, a 61-54 triumph as a three-point chalk.

Both teams can fill the bucket – Gonzaga shoots 49.4 percent from the field; Duke shoots 47.8 percent – and both can play defense, with Gonzaga holding opponents to 41.3 percent on field goals and the Blue Devils a smidge better at 39 percent.

The Bulldogs are in ATS slumps of 2-5-1 on Saturday, 4-11-1 in non-conference play and 7-15 against winning teams. Duke is 1-4 ATS in its last five on Saturday, 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a non-cover and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a victory of more than 20 points.

Gonzaga carries “over” runs of 19-7 overall in lined play, 9-1 in non-league contests, 4-1 against the ACC, 6-1 at neutral sites and 14-3 following a victory. Also, Duke has topped the total in nine of its last 13 non-conference games, but the Blue Devils carry “under” trends of 13-4 at neutral sites, 9-2 after a victory of more than 20 points and 17-6 after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE

(17) Kansas State (9-1, 5-2 ATS) vs. Alabama (7-3, 4-3 ATS)
(at Mobile, Ala.)

For the second straight Saturday, the Crimson Tide play a Top 20 opponent in their home state as they match up against newly ranked Kansas State at the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Ala.

The Wildcats ran their winning streak to six in a row when they went to Las Vegas last Saturday and destroyed 18th-ranked UNLV 95-80 as a 2½-point road underdog. Kansas State shot a season-best 57.1 percent from the field (28-for-49), including 60.9 percent from three-point land (14-for-23), and the 95 points were a season high. The Wildcats’ last three victories have been by 15 points or more against UNLV, Xavier (71-56) and Washington State (85-69), and they have their highest national ranking since February 1988.

Alabama fell 73-65 to fifth-ranked Purdue as a six-point home underdog last Saturday, ending a three-game winning streak (2-0 ATS). The Crimson Tide blew a 48-32 second-half lead to the Boilermakers, making just three baskets in the final 14 minutes, including none in the final 8:45. However, Alabama rebounded with a 60-45 rout of Samford on Wednesday, barely cashing as a 14-point home favorite.

The only previous battle between these squads came in 1994, with Alabama rolling to a 79-48 victory.

The Wildcats have cashed in four straight games overall, and they’re 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 Saturday contests and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover. However, they’ve failed to cover in four straight games against SEC opponents, going 0-2-2 ATS. Alabama is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at neutral sites, but has come up short in four of its last five after an ATS win.

The over is on runs of 5-1 for Kansas State overall, 4-0 for Kansas State on Saturday, 9-4 for Alabama on neutral courts, 8-2 for Alabama after a SU victory and 7-1 for Alabama after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE and OVER

MARC LAWRENCE

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets
PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder +5

We’re right back with a double-revenging Thunder team that, despite it’s 67% ATS success as road dogs, is quietly staying under the radar this campaign. Meanwhile, Houston enters off last night’s major revenge rumble at Dallas. That sets the table here as the Rockets are just 3-11-1 ATS at home without rest against a same season avenger. They are also 0-3-1 ATS as unrested regular season hosts in this series. Grab the points with OK City here tonight.

Karl Garrett

Portland at ORLANDO -9

Another NBA comp play winner on Friday on Milwaukee plus the points.

Now 5 in a row for free!

Tough time of the year to be flying from Portland to Orlando for a Saturday basketball game.

Portland just battled Phoenix on Thursday night in a home win, but now must hit the road for a quartet of games that start tonight before they head back home for a Christmas night date with Denver.

G-Man just doesn't see the Blazers gaining any traction tonight, as they have lost their last pair, and 6 of their last 7 straight up away from home, while going just 2-5 against the spread in that 7 game stretch.

Orlando is 8-5 against the spread this year when playing with one day rest, and they have won 5 of the last 6 series meetings, while going 4-2 against the spread.

Take the Magic to pull away from the Blazers.

3♦ ORLANDO

Jeff Benton

West Virginia -14 at CLEVELAND STATE

For Saturday’s free play in College Hoops, I’ll lay the reasonable price with West Virginia on the road at Cleveland State.

The records of these teams – West Virginia is 7-0; Cleveland State is 4-7 – suggest this is a big mismatch, and it really is. Only one team (Texas A&M, currently ranked 23rd) has been able to stay within single digits of the Mountaineers, who beat the Aggies 73-66 on a neutral court, barely failing to cover as an 8½-point chalk. Other than that, West Virginia owns victories by margins of 23, 19, 23, 18, 29 and, most recently (against Coppin State last Saturday), 26 points.

Meanwhile, Cleveland State won three of its first four games, but has since dropped six of its last seven. The Vikings only win during this 1-6 slump came against something called Wilberforce (obviously a non-lined game). Among Cleveland State’s losses this year: St. Bonaventure (72-62), Wichita State (69-54), Wright State (73-64), Detroit (69-62) and, on Tuesday, Robert Morris (78-70 at home). Moreover, the Vikings’ lone contest against a ranked opponent came on Nov. 24 against Kentucky. Result: 73-49 loss as a 12-point underdog.

Cleveland State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven lined games and has failed to cover in four straight lined outings at home. And with the way the Vikings struggle on defense (opponents average 71 ppg on 47.1 percent shooting), there’s no way they slow the Mountaineers’ offensive juggernaut that averages 76 ppg.

5♦ WEST VIRGINIA

Tom Freese

Youngstown St at Wisconsin Green Bay

Wisconsin Green Bay is 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 home games and they are 15-5-2 ATS their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Phoenix are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall and they are 5-1 ATS vs. Horizon League teams. Youngstown St is 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 road games. The Penguins are 0-5 ATS their last 5 games vs. Horizon League teams and they are 5-12 ATS their last 17 games vs. the Phoenix. PLAY ON WISCONSIN GREEN BAY -

Rob Vinciletti

UAB vs. South Alabama
Play: UAB -4.5

UAB is in a real good non conference spot here tonight. They take on South Alabama knowing they are 14-2 vs Sun Belt Conference teams having covered 5 of the last 7 times. In this series they have won the last between the two teams. When UAB is a road favorite from 3.6 to 6 they have won all 13 times covering in 10 of the 13 wins. They are 5-1 after allowing 60 or less in their last game and have won 3 of their 4 games vs winning teams this year. South Alabama comes in off a close win vs Arky Little Rock and has been dreadful vs Conf. USA teams losing 17 of 24 times and 0-3 ats most recently. They have not covered a home game yet this season and have lost all 3 times vs winning teams on the year. Best of all is their 0-6 record as a home dog in this range. UAB will win and cover here in this one.

LARRY NESS
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UCLA @ Notre Dame
PICK: Notre Dame -10
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Ben Howland took his Bruins to three straight Final Fours (2006-08) but last year's team lost in the second round of the NCAAs to finish with 22 wins. What Howland wouldn't give for 22-win season in 2009-10. All those early exits to the NBA of quality players have final caught up to the Bruins and the team's starting center this season, the 6-8 Gordon (11.2-5.3), decided to transfer after six games. Howland said it was a mutual decision and that may be true. Filling in at center is 6-8 freshman Nelson and he's averaged 10.0 PPG and 8.3 RPG in his first two starts. The team's lone returning starter from LY, the 6-9 Dragovic (7.7-5.7), was suspended for two games earlier this year and in the Wooden Classic this past Saturday vs Miss St (in Anaheim), took nine shots without making one. The good news has been the play of 6-5 senior guard Ball and 6-5 sophomore guard Lee. Roll, who never could get more than about 15 minutes of playing time his first three seasons, is getting all the time he can handle this year, averaging a team-best 14.0 PPG with 4.0 APG. Lee is averaging 13.6-5.1-3.3. UCLA badly needed a win going into Tuesday's home game with New Mexico St (had lost five straight) and came away with a 100-68 win. However, I'm going against them here with Notre Dame, which has had a whole week to stew about last Saturday's shocking 87-85 home loss vs Loyola-Marymount as a 21-point favorite. Also, the Irish just may want to avenge last year's 26-point loss at Pauley. Luke Harangody (24.6-10.1) should have his way, while Miss St transfer Hansbrough (12.5-5.0 APG) has replaced McAlarney (15.0-3.4 APG) in the backcourt giving Tory Jackson (8.2-5.1 APG) a quality partner. Lay it with Notre Dame.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Blazers/Magic UNDER 194
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Bottom Line: Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (PORTLAND) after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 43-19 the last 5 seasons. The average total posted in these games was 194.6 and the average score in these games has totaled just 189.4 points. We'll bet the Under for 1 Unit here with this solid system.

Bobby Maxwell

Wyoming +11 vs. Fresno State, in Albuquerque

I'm on an incredible 7-1 run with my FREE plays and I've delivered a comp winner 30 of the last 44 days. Friday I handed you an easy on with St. Mary's wiping out Pacific on the college hardwood. Today I've got a college football winner for you as I grab the points with Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl against Fresno State.

If you look at the offensive numbers, this game should be a blowout with Fresno State destroying Wyoming. But you’ve got to look inside the numbers and look at what these teams traditionally do when they get to the postseason.

Fresno State was in this very bowl last year, playing Colorado State, a team it should have dominated with a superior offense, and the Bulldogs crapped themselves. They lost 40-35 as a two-point favorite. When the Bulldogs have something to prove and come into a bowl game as an underdog, they are 5-0 ATS in the last 13 years. But when they come in as a favorite, expected to deliver, they are 0-4 ATS.

And looking at Fresno’s scores, you’ll see they play to the level of the competition. They stepped up at Illinois and won, they didn’t get motivated and barely beat Louisiana Tech 30-28. They were unmotivated to play Utah State and escaped with a 31-27 win.

Wyoming has to rely on its defense to win and cover and they have gotten the cash in seven of the last nine overall, including that season finale against Colorado State, winning 17-16 on the road as a 2 ½-point ‘dog.

Wyoming will come into this one ready to play. Fresno State won’t. Grab the points and play the Cowboys.

3♦ WYOMING