Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, December 24

DUNKEL INDEX

Hollywood Sports

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots

The Patriots (11-3) return home after two straight games on the road that culminated in their 41-23 win at Denver last week. New England is a decisive 29-14-2 ATS in their last 45 games after a blowout win by at least two touchdowns. The Patriots have also covered 15 of their last 21 home games as a favorite in the 3.5-10 point range. And New England takes care of business against fellow AFC East opponents as they have covered 7 of their last 9 meetings with teams from their division. The Patriots are scoring 35.3 PPG over their last three games which will present a big challenge to a Miami team that has lost five of their seven road games while scoring just 19.3 PPG. Pass defense has been a problem for the Dolphins. Even in their 30-23 win at Buffalo last week, the allowed the Bills to pass for 291 yards -- and Miami has failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. On the road, the Dolphins surrender 253.9 passing YPG which is not a good sign when facing a Patriots' team that passes for over 300 YPG at home. Lay the points with New England.

Spartan

Denver -2.5

Well this Denver team let a golden opportunity literally slip from the grasp last sunday and they did the one thing you simply cannot ever do and have success in the NFL. They turned the ball over. Nothing more lethal to a teams chances that turning the damn ball over. However, considering the division they reside in they are still very much in the hunt and now venture to Buffalo for a very winnable game against the fading Bills. I can assure you there will be countless Chiefs fans hoping and praying the Bills can muster up one more huge effort and knock off the Broncos but frankly I'm simply just not seeing it. By the way, clearly also the Oakland and San Diego fans will be rooting likewise. I mentioned KC because I reside in Missouri and after the Chiefs stunning victory over the Packers the locals are excited about a potential playoff run once again. Now, my long time clients know I don't tend to hang my hat on trends much. But, like I told Marco back when he was doing a pod cast with me, I perform my due diligence and check them out. There are times when something actually relevant jumps off the page at me. Check this little nugget out guys. The Buffalo Bills are a downright lousy 4-24 against the number the week after facing the Miami Dolphins since the 1998 season. Think about that one for a moment. Doesn't take Mr Spock to realize that's a significant number. Anyway, too much at stake here for Denver to not get back up and to be candid I question how much fight is left in this Bills group. I say the spread is more than reasonable and say bet Denver up to a field goal.

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings

We have a feeling that not much makes Mike Shanahan smile. Apparently, though, pulling off an upset gets the veteran head coach somewhat giddy as proven by his 11-22-1 ATS in games after pulling an upset wins, including 4-17 ATS when favored. Too much so for our liking as we want no part of this favorite, even against a Minnesota team that has dropped six straight, allowing 211 points (35 PPG) in the process. To boot, the Redskins are 0-14 ATS as home favorites off a SU win versus losing opposition, 1-11 ATS as favorites versus a foe a double-digit SU loss and 1-10 ATS their last 11 games as chalk of 6 or more points. Yikes! Today?s spread is the largest number that Washington has laid since October of 2009 ? covering a span of 30 games ? and frankly, is just too much ?skin? for our conservative taste. Couple that to Minny?s 10-0 ATS mark as a dog off back-to-back SU losses versus an opponent off a double-digit SU win, and 7-1 ATS record as road dogs in December off a SU loss, and those overwhelming numbers make the Vikings? 2-9 ATS log in LRG?s seem immaterial. You know what to do here. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

Lenny Del Genio

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Oakland Raiders

A quick tip of the cap must be extended to the Chiefs for their stunning 19-14 upset of the unbeaten Packers last week. It was only the third straight up win by a double digit dog this season. Now comes the inevitable letdown. Here they'll find a revenge minded Raiders team still smarting from a 28-0 loss in Week 7 when QB Carson Palmer was unfairly thrown to the wolves just days after his signing. Furthermore, Oakland is 8-0 ATS in division road games and has won four straight times at Arrowhead Stadium. Take Oakland.

Lenny Del Genio

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Dec
Prediction: Oakland Raiders

A quick tip of the cap must be extended to the Chiefs for their stunning 19-14 upset of the unbeaten Packers last week. It was only the third straight up win by a double digit dog this season. Now comes the inevitable letdown. Here they'll find a revenge minded Raiders team still smarting from a 28-0 loss in Week 7 when QB Carson Palmer was unfairly thrown to the wolves just days after his signing. Furthermore, Oakland is 8-0 ATS in division road games and has won four straight times at Arrowhead Stadium. Take Oakland.

Stephen Nover

Cardinals @ Bengals
PICK: Under 41.5

We know the Bengals have a good defense. The numbers back that up. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 in fewest points allowed, total defense and rushing defense.

But what about Arizona? The Cardinals surrendered an average of 26.1 points and 390.7 yards per game during their first seven games. In their last seven games, though, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 17.4 points and 325 yards.

There are several reasons for this among them being the Cardinals are more in sync with defensive coordinator Ray Horton's system and top rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson is improving his coverage as he gains more experience.

During this seven-game span no opponent has scored more than 23 points on the Cardinals despite two of the games going into overtime. Consequently, Cincinnati has hit a roadblock on offense. The Bengals haven't broken the 24-point barrier during any of their past seven games.

Cincinnati is averaging 15.3 points in its last three games. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has tailed off. It's been five games since he's had multiple touchdown throws in a game. A.J. Green, the Bengals' lone playmaker, has a shoulder injury and will be far less than 100 percent if he plays. The Bengals' passing attack suffers greatly if Green can't play, or is severely restricted.

The Cardinals aren't going to put up many points either with inaccurate John Skelton as their quarterback. Skelton is kind of a poor man's Tim Tebow in that he's not pretty with a quarterback rating of under 70 and a six-to-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he does the job as Arizona is 5-1 when he's played.

EZWINNERS

Nevada Wolfpack +8.5

Southern Mississippi's head coach Larry Fedora has accepted the North Carolina coaching position, but Southern Miss elected to have him coach the team in this bowl game. I'm not really sure that was a wise idea and I'm not really sure that the players will be 100% focused for this game. We have seen it time and time again when a team rallies around a coach that has been fired, but you have to question the teams motivation when the coach leaves for another school on their own. Nevada is a very dangerous team and the pistol offense of the Wolfpack will put points on the board with the one two punch of quarterback Cody Fajardo and Tyler Lantrip. The Wolfpack also knows how to focus for a trip to the Islands as this will be their sixth game that they have played here in the last seven years while Southern Miss might be enjoying the beaches a little too much. Take the points.

Matt Fargo

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -4

Arizona has made a huge run after a horrible start to the season. The Cardinals are 6-1 over their last seven games and the credit goes to a defense that has totally turned things around. The schedule has certainly helped as four of those seven games have come at home including the last three. Arizona faced St. Louis twice, Cleveland, Dallas at home where it has always struggled and San Francisco at home right after it clinched the division. Heading east in December after a three-game homestand is not easy. The Bengals kept their playoff hopes alive with a win at St. Louis and heads home for the final two games of the regular season. Currently the Jets own the tiebreaker based on a better record against common opponents but it is up to the Bengals to get their own business taken care of. A loss here makes next week meaningless so Cincinnati needs to win consecutive games for the first time since early November. The Bengals have not covered a game since November 6th but that adds value to this number. The Bengals defense could make the difference here as the unit has been solid all season and will be asked to stop the run. Arizona is averaging 4.2 ypc on the season while Cincinnati is allowing just 3.7 ypc and while Beanie Wells is having a career year, the Bengals matchup very well against big backs. This season they have faced eight running backs that fits Wells' category of a big running back (over 220 pounds) and the Bengals have allowed only 484 yards on 3.3 ypc which is very impressive. As mentioned, the Arizona defense has been playing extremely well as it has allowed more than 20 points only once in its last seven games. The Cincinnati offense is far from a juggernaut but it has faced some top quality defenses as they have faced off against defenses ranked eighth or better in seven different games which has no doubt skewed their offensive numbers. Even though the Cardinals have been better of late, they are still ranked just 20th overall and 17th in scoring. This is a must win game for both sides but because of the recent results, we are working with a good line on the home team. The Cardinals have not hit the road in a month and they have not acclimated well to the situation at hand here as they are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games in December, losing those games by an average of two touchdowns. Also, they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600, losing by 21.1 ppg.

Sam Martin

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: St. Louis Rams

We don't expect much out of Pittsburgh here in the final two weeks, other than for the Steelers to try to get through the end of the regular season as healthy as possible. After two scares against Kansas City and Cleveland recently along with the ugly loss against San Francisco on Monday night, the Steelers won't worry about running up scores at all - especially against weak competition against these Rams and next week against the Browns. Pitt will still win this one outright, but not by double-digits. 5* Play on St. Louis.

Teddy Covers

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
PICK: Denver Broncos -1.5

My clients and I have cashed several winners on the Denver Broncos during their remarkable 6-1 late season run, putting Tim Tebow and company in position to win the AFC West despite last week’s loss to New England. And, after last week’s ugly loss, the betting market steam on Denver has finally dissipated, giving us legitimate value jumping right back on the Broncos train here as they travel to Buffalo to take on the slumping Bills.

Why has Denver been winning during this span? Two reasons – an under-rated defense and a QB who the team believes in. Tebow has already led five game winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime; a QB making big plays and good decisions at the most important times in the game. That’s especially important in a pointspread range where a win by a field goal should cash a winning bet. And make no mistake about it – Denver’s defense has been nothing short of outstanding in recent weeks; their only struggles coming against truly high octane passing attacks. The Bills simply don’t have a passing game of that caliber these days.

In fact, the Bills don’t have much working for them at this late stage of the season – they’ve had the exact opposite season compared to Denver. A 5-1 start is long forgotten now, as Buffalo enters this game assured of another losing season following their seventh consecutive loss last week. Fans aren’t showing up – this game is blacked out in the Buffalo area, despite Tebow’s visit. They’ve lost their last three home games all by a TD or more, including bad losses to mediocre foes like Tennessee and Miami. And we certainly shouldn’t forget how little the homefield seems to matter in Broncos games these days. Tebow is 5-0 SU & ATS as a starter on the road this year, but only 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS (or 1-2-1 ATS) at home. Take Denver.

Bryan Power

Rams @ Steelers
Pick: Under 37.5

If you like lots of points, then this is NOT your game. The Steelers come off a poor performance Monday night, losing at San Francisco 20-3. QB Ben Roethlisberger's status is uncertain for this matchup w/ the lowly Rams, but regardless of who's under center for Pittsburgh here, I like the Under. The Steelers have seen the Under cash in four straight weeks. Prior to losing to San Francisco, the Steel Curtain had allowed 19 points in its last three games. They also shut out the Rams' division mate Seattle here at home. St. Louis is terrible offensively and that could be the understatement of the century. They come in averaging just 11.9 PPG for the season (worst in the league) and that number dips to 9.3 PPG on the road. They have gone Under six straight times on the road against .500 or better teams. They have scored 7 pts or less five times this season, one of those being a loss to the Steelers' main rival Baltimore. Overall, the Rams have gone Under eight of the previous 11 games. I see Pittsburgh winning an 'ugly' game Saturday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Miami Dolphins +10

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 38-24 clear back in their season opener, but this isn't the same Miami team the Pats saw in September. The Phins have rebounded from an 0-7 start to win 5 of their last 7 games straight up and 7 of their last 8 games against the spread. With the playoffs not being an option for the Dolphins, they will treat this game as their Super Bowl. With that kind of commitment to this contest, I expect them to give New England a game. The key to Miami's turnaround has been its running attack. Reggie Bush, who ranks sixth in the AFC with 973 rushing yards, is a big reason why the Dolphins rank seventh in the NFL with 127.4 rushing yards per game. He has averaged 135.3 rushing yards the last three weeks and could be poised for a big day against a New England defense ranked dead last in the NFL with 414.4 yards allowed per contest. The Dolphins have averaged 190.7 rushing yards over their last three games and the Patriots have given up an average of 211 rushing yards in their last two games. If Miami is able to run the football, which I fully expect they will, it will be able to control the clock. The less time the New England offense spends on the field, the less time it will have to score. Miami is 5-2 ATS in road games this season, 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games and 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Dolphins are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. The road team has covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings in this series, and I expect this trend to continue Saturday.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Giants +135 over N.Y. JETS

It makes little sense to us that the Jets are favored here. For those that aren’t aware, these two share this stadium and any home field advantage is removed. Sure, the Jets have a slightly better record but we believe the Giants are the better team. Not unexpectedly, the G-Men hiccupped last week when losing to the Redskins after a grueling stretch of schedule. These are all playoff games from here on out. The Giants must win both the final games to have any control of what can translate into a division win and there will be no wild card in the making. Either win the NFC East or sit at home is the reality. Unlike the G-Men, the Jets control their own destiny with a win here and a win in Miami next week. Big deal. Eli Manning can throw for 400 a game while Sanchez is out of character when throwing for over a deuce. There is no more room for error and that being said, give us the stronger quarterback with the better pass rushing team in a situation that has become almost signature to the Giants. Keep the points. Play: N.Y. Giants +135 (Risking 2 units).

BALTIMORE –12½ over Cleveland

Ravens figure to be in a ‘fowl’ mood after embarrassment at San Diego on Monday and that suits our purposes just fine. Baltimore is a much better team at home, having gone 7-0 as hosts while outscoring its opposition by a combined 199-105. At this time of year, teams with feeble offenses tend to wither, as their defense is overworked and simply out of gas. Cleveland’s offense is one of the league’s weaker units with only the Rams and Chiefs having scored fewer points. Brownies figure to be mentally drained too after blowing a nice lead in Arizona last week before losing it in OT. It sure doesn’t help that this will be the Brownies third consecutive road game and that the Ravens love beating up on inferior teams because they can’t beat top echelon teams. Play: Baltimore –12½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

BUFFALO +125 over Denver

YouTube will be busy, as Tim Tebow throwing in the cold and windy confines of the Ralph Stadium should provide some outstanding entertainment. This is really a classic case of buying low and selling high. The Broncos bubble finally burst last week and it may not stop. There was a reason Denver lost five of its first seven and Tebow does not make them better. He had them fired up and he’s the story of the year but even “Rudy” had his 10 minutes of fame. Buffalo remains in a funk but seemed to locate its offense last week with over 400 yards of total offense. With Denver’s limited scoring ability and extremely limited QB in that wind tunnel in Buffalo, expect the fired up Bills to give one last hurrah against a team that’s getting too much coverage. Play: Buffalo +125 (Risking 2 units).

Arizona +4½ over CINCINNATI

With all the divas removed, the Bengals have been a nice story this season. However, there are still shortcomings that remain and while they aren’t so apparent against the league’s weak sisters, they are evident when stepping up in class. The Cardinals may not be blue chip but they are on a roll with six wins in past seven games and they’ve looked darn good in doing so. The Bengals have won just twice in their past six games with those victories occurring against the punchless Rams and Browns. Cincinnati has not defeated a winning team thus far and asking them to win by a margin cannot be recommended. Play: Arizona +4½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

GRREN BAY –12 over Chicago

For the Bears, Caleb Hanie is out and Josh McCown is in. Big deal. Jay Cutler’s worst break was not to his thumb but that this wasn’t a contract year for him. There was optimism that Cutler would be back for the playoffs. There was optimism that the Bears would actually be in the playoffs. There was optimism Sam Hurd would be satisfied with his overly generous contract and not feel compelled to start a drug enterprise on the side. The Packers won by 10 in Chicago way back in week three when the Bears were starting to come on. Chicago is now virtually out of this thing when they looked like a lock to make it just a month ago. That’s mentally draining and they’ll come in here knowing they have no shot of winning. Chicago has been useless since losing Cutler and now facing their arch-rivals, off their first loss, expect the Packers to roll here against a team they hate and will have no mercy for. Play: Green Bay –12 +100 (Risking 2 units).

THE REST:

Miami +9½ over NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots have won six straight but when the opposing quarterbacks consist of Tyler Palko, Vince Young, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman and Tim Tebow, would you expect anything less? Miami’s defense and improved running game keeps this one within this lofty price range. Play: Miami +9½ (No bets).

Jacksonville +7 over TENNESSEE

Titans still have a slim chance for a playoff spot and even hold a tiebreaker should they tie the Raiders. Why then, are the Titans using QB Matt Hasselbeck over rookie Jake Long when players and fans alike are calling for the youngster? Locker has been more effective in his brief appearances and with confidence lost in the aging and gimpy Hasselbeck, we must fade the fave at this outrageous price. Play: Jacksonville +7 (No bets).

Minnesota +6½ over WASHINGTON

Redskins in an unfamiliar role of spotting points, having done so just twice this season and succeeding only against the woeful Rams. Also note that the Skins are out of playoff picture and the damage they did to the Giants last week was especially satisfying, thus creating a huge letdown spot. With a solid pass rush and RB Adrian Peterson back for second game since injuring his ankle, look for a scrappy effort from the visitor. Play: Minnesota +6½ (No bets).

CAROLINA –7½ over Tampa Bay

Coach Ron Rivera is already anticipating a strong 2012 and has his Panthers approaching final games with a playoff-like mentality. Laugh if you will but it sure beats the flip side which is having quit altogether like the Bucs have. Tampa giving up far too many points (401, 2nd most in league) and Carolina loves to rack ‘em up. Play: Carolina –7½ (No bets).

KANSAS CITY –2½ over Oakland

How can we recommend playing on a Hue Jackson coached team when the coach can’t count and doesn’t understand how the clock works? Granted, Kyle Orton is not elite but compared to Tyler Palko, he’s Dan Marino. The Chiefs are on a high after knocking off the Packers and even during the Palko era, Kansas’ defense only surrendered more than 17 points to Green Bay and New England over the past 6 weeks. We can’t imagine a more wonderful scenario than the Chiefs playing the Broncos for the division title in week 17. Orton v. Tebow. Are you kidding? This has to happen. If it does, it may surpass the Pats/Broncos game of last week, which is now the highest rated regular season television game ever. Play: Kansas City –2½ (No bets).

San Diego +2½ over DETROIT

Chargers are making a late bid for a playoff spot and while they may be a bit tardy, they finally appear to be playing like the team many anticipated at season’s start. Detroit’s porous defense remains a liability and if San Diego can maintain its recent form, the Lions could be in for a long afternoon. Play: San Diego +2½ (No bets).

San Francisco –2 over SEATTLE

Seattle all amped up after winning three straight and climbing its way back to .500 along with some renewed hope of post-season play. Unfortunately, the Seachickens won’t be facing a reeling Bears squad, a disgraceful Rams group or an Eagles team traveling west on three days rest. Reality bites. Play: San Francisco –2 (No bets).

Philadelphia +1½ over DALLAS

Tricky spot as Eagles’ playoffs hopes could be quashed before they take the field, should the Giants defeat the Jets. However, still lean to a Philly team that has won consecutive games, both convincingly, after appearing to have shed itself of the pressures of winning. Cowboys tend to choke in these situations. Play: Philadelphia +1½ (No bets).

Rams (2-12) at Steelers (10-4)

Game is off board due to unknown status of both teams’ quarterback situation.