David Banks
Nevada / Southern Mississippi Over 62.5
Christmas Eves lone bowl game has the Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5, 5-7 ATS) and Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (11-2, 8-4-1 ATS) squaring off in beautiful Honolulu in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl; kick-off from Aloha Stadium is set to go live on ESPN & ESPN3.com at 8:00 ET.
Off one of the best seasons Nevada ever had a year ago when it went 13-1 SU and beat Boston College in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, the Wolf Pack were once again expected to win the WAC with Boise State bolting for the Mountain West Conference. Head coach Chris Aults kids almost lived up to the lofty expectations by churning out a 5-2 SU record (1-6 ATS), but Week 11s home loss to Louisiana Tech saw them just come up short. Even though Colin Kaepernick moved onto the NFL, Nevadas Pistol Offense still took care of business racking up an average of 522.8 YPG (#5) while scoring an average of 32.9 PPG (#31). QBs Cody Fajardo and Tyler Lantrip both had exceptional campaigns throwing for a combined 3143 yards and 16 TDs, while RB Mark Lampford was the teams leading rusher with 728 yards on 5.6 yards per carry. The problem came on the defensive side of the ball where the Wolf Pack surrendered 372 YPG (#52) and 25.2 PPG (#58). Nevada went just 2-4 SU & ATS in its six road games played away from Mackay Stadium.
Last we saw the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, they dominated the then undefeated Houston Cougars in the CUSA Championship Game. Southern Miss went off the board lofty 12-point underdogs in that contest, but went out and took it to Case Keenum and the Cougars winning outright by a 49-28 final count. Unfortunately, the Golden Eagles 11-2 SU campaign did not go without notice as the North Carolina Tar Heels came a calling and hired Larry Fedora to become their next head coach. Still, this is a very proud and experienced program making the trip to the islands led by senior QB Austin Davis who had himself one heck of a season throwing for 3331 yards and 28 TDs. He was the ringleader of an offense that gained an average of 471 yards (#13) and scored an average of 37.8 PPG (#14). Defensively, the Golden Eagles had problems defending the pass (#70 at 232.7 YPG) but proved stout in defending the run (#20 at 112.6 YPG) while giving up an average of 21.1 PPG (#29). Southern Mississippi won and covered five of its seven road games.
These programs opposed one another twice in the late 90s with Southern Miss winning each contest both straight up and against the closing number. The Wolf Pack stand 3-2 SU but just 0-4-1 ATS when playing on two or more weeks of rest and have failed to cover each of their last four bowl game appearances; they do however check in 5-1 ATS their L/6 as underdogs. Southern Miss has failed to win or cover each of its L/2 neutral field battles, but owns a perfect 4-0 ATS mark versus the L/4 +.500 opponents faced and have covered each of the previous five times it played off a 20+ point win.
Doug Upstone
Tampa Bay Bucs
On Christmas Eve we will have a full slate of NFL action. The one that caught our eye was the NFC South matchup in Charlotte. Here we will look to Play Against teams like Carolina, after allowing 14 points or less in last game, against opponent after two straight losses by 14 or more points.(30-7 ATS since 2002)
James Patrick Sports
Chargers vs. Lions
The Chargers can win the AFC West with a (9-7) record. The San Diego Chargers own a (21-4-1) ATS mark as underdogs playing in Domed Stadiums and the number is a perfect (11-0) ATS when they play off a win. San Diego has won three in a row to remain in the mix in the AFC West. The Bolts are (4-0) ATS in their last (4) meetings and they get the call as Big Game James Patrick's Saturday NFL complimentary selection, San Diego Chargers.
Jim Feist
Chargers at Lions
Play: Over 52
A pair of teams playing indoors with excellent QB play. San Diego QB Phillip Rivers has finally settled down and is not turning it over. They are riding a 3-game win streak, having blown out Jacksonville (38-14), Buffalo (37-10) and a 34-14 destruction of the Raven. The over is 31-12-4 in the Chargers last 47 road games. The Lions know something about putting up a lot of yards and points, as well. The Over is 43-23-2 in the Lions last 68 games. Can’t see much defense with these QBs playing indoors. Play the Chargers/Lions Over the total.
Steve Janus
Minnesota Vikings +6.5
Last week my week 15 NFL free pick was on the Carolina Panthers +6 at Houston. Not only did the Panthers cover the spread, they won the game outright 28-13. For those that have been following my free picks, I am currently 9-1 dating back to the middle of October.
I believe I have found another live underdog for week 17 in the Minnesota Vikings. The Redskins come in off an outright win as an underdog over the Giants last week, but Washington always plays their division tough regardless of where they are in the standings. I have a hard time believing they are excited to play the Vikings in a meaningless game this late in the year.
Minnesota comes into this game having lost six straight, but I strongly believe they are trying to end the season on a high note. They got blown out by the Saints last week, as Drew Brees took advantage of their pitiful pass defense. The four games before that, they played the Raiders, Falcons, Broncos, and Lions all tough.
Washington's win over the Giants was just their second in their last 10 games. During that stretch the lost to four teams with a losing record (Eagles, Panthers, Bills, and Dolphins). They also come into this game having lost six straight at home.
Washington simply doesn't have the offense to be laying almost a touchdown against any team, which is why they have been favored in just two games all season. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Vikings didn't lead the entire way.
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, while Washington is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
King Creole
Giants / Jets Over 45.5
It's PANIC TIME in the Big Apple. Both teams are BARELY alive in the Playoff race, and will go ALL OUT on Sunday. This Giants / Jets series has gone 3-0 O/U in the last 3 meetings, with a whopping average of 62.3 total PPG.
The G-Men were in the drivers seat in the NFC East, until a shocking home loss on Sunday to the Redskins.
6-0 O/U s'06: All non-div road teams playing off a SU DD div loss as a home fav of -5 > pts (NYG).
Prior to their poor offensive effort on Sunday (only 10 pts), the Giants had scored 35 and 37 in their last two games.
9-1 O/U L4Y: all underdogs of 2 > pts who scored 10 pts in the 2 games before that.
The Giants are also off BB division games.
5-0 O/U L4Y: All NFC teams playing off BB div gms (NYG)... versus any AFC opp (JETS) when the OU line is > 45 pts.
On the flip side, the Jets are also off a shocking outcome (45-19 loss to Philly).
7-1 O/U L4Y: All 'short' home favs of -3 pts.
I also ran a query for teams who gave up a LOT of points in their previous game.
10-1 O/U s'04: All non-div home favs of -7 points on the ROAD the previous week.
The Jets have been one of our favorite 'Over' teams in the last 2 seasons. They come into this one on a 4-game 'Over' streak. And the OU margins haven't even been close (+13.8 ppg in that time span)
6-0 O/U L5Y: All GAME 15 favorites of -6 < points who went 'Over' in their last 3 games (JETS).
Final score in the Battle for New York: 31 to 27....
Jim Feist
49ers vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 38
A pair of teams that prefer to run the football and play tough defense meet here. The under is 12-2-2 in the 49ers last 16 games on fieldturf and the under is 11-5 in 49ers last 16 games in December. Seattle has been on a nice run in the second half of the season with a hard hitting defense and the emergence of RB Marshawn Lynch, who has been healthy. Teams that run the football can keep the clock running and keep the score down. And the under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle between these teams. Play the 49ers/Seahawks under the total.
Chip Chirimbes
Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Arizona Cardinals +4½
These two teams are headed in opposite directions as Cincinnati as dropped four of their last six with their two wins coming against teams with a combined 6-22 record and Arizona has won four straight and six of their last seven to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Young quarterbacks will leading both squads not matter who starts for the Cardinals be it Kevin Kolb or John Skelton against rookie Andy Dalton for the Bengals. Arizona has been able to run the ball behind Benie Wells and have allowed only eight touchdowns in their last seven games.
Brandon Lee
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -7½
There is plenty of reason to like the Panthers to cover this big spread at home in week 16. In the first meeting between these two teams, Carolina won 38-19 at Tampa Bay. They outgained the Buccaneers 385 to 185 thanks in large part to 163 rushing yards. All of that sets up a big play on the Panthers.Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS when they allow 150 or more rushing yards this season, 3-14 ATS when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons, and the Panthers are a solid 17-4 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992.
WUNDERDOG
Denver at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo +3
The Denver Broncos have been the talk of the NFL in the second half of the season, and Tim Tebow is everywhere you look. The problem is that perception doesn't equal reality. Denver has been on a nice run since Tebow took over but the reality is they have been fairly lucky. During the great run that Tebow had, the Broncos have enjoyed a 2-to-1 turnover advantage. They looked really bad for 90% of some of those games but came away with a win. In reality, the Broncos with Tebow are a mediocre team yet the impression is they are better than that. That spells value fading them. The Broncos defense got a lift from the excitement created by Tebow and winning games and stepped up in a few games, but has become again what it was earlier in the season - not so good. Denver allowed a season's second best 32 points to 2-10 Minnesota three weeks ago, stopped the Bears' non-existent offense then were torched for 41 vs. New England a season high - even for the Pats. They also allowed a season high 49 points to Green Bay and a season second best to Detroit who hit them for 45. Tebow has been a feel-good story, but the fact remains that the Broncos have scored 18 or fewer points in six of their last nine games and "feel good" doesn't cover spreads in the NFL long term. Buffalo has lost seven straight games, but they remain a threat at home where they are 4-3 and have outscored their opponents here. Denver is just 15-35-1 in their last 51 ATS as a favorite, and the Bills come in having covered four of their last five vs. the Broncos. Play contrarian - Play Buffalo.
Rob Vinciletti
San Diego Chargers vs. Detroit Lions
Play: San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are on fire right now having won 3 straight since the announcement of Norv Turners departure. The Chargers have won 23 of 25 in December with Philip Rivers at the helm. Even better the Chargers have covered 23 of the last 27 in a dome. In games off back to back wins they have covered 13 of the last 14. The Lions are off last weeks dramatic 98 yard drive to stun the Raiders 28-27. However they are 0-4 straight up and ats in this series and Home favorites in the last 3 games of the season are poor investments if off 3+ ats losses. Look for the Chargers to keep the pressure on the Broncos and emerge with another win.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Ravens -12
The Baltimore Ravens got extremely lucky last week. After losing to the San Diego Chargers Sunday night, Baltimore was able to watch the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. That loss for the Steelers kept the Ravens in first place in the AFC North. If the Ravens win their final two games, they not only win their division, but they also hold the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
It's safe to say that the Ravens are going to come back more hungry and motivated than ever Saturday against the Cleveland Browns after catching such a great break. They should be able to make easy work of the hapless Browns, which is something they have been making a habit of over the last few years.
Baltimore has won seven straight meetings with Cleveland. They have won six of those by duble-digits, and four by 14 points or more. That includes a 24-10 victory over the Browns on 12/04 in their first meeting of the season on the road. That game was actually a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Ravens outgained the Browns 448-233 for the game, led by a career-high 204 rushing yards from Ray Rice.
Cleveland is down to No. 2 quarterback Senaca Wallace, who is going to struggle mightily against a Baltimore stop unit that ranks No. 3 in total defense (287.9 yards/game). The Browns rank just 30th in the league against the run (145.4 yards/game), so expect another huge day from Rice as the Ravens take a big lead early and build on it.
Baltimore has been unstoppable at home this season. The Ravens are 7-0 SU & 4-2-1 ATS at home this year, scoring 28.4 points/game while allowing 15.0 points/game. They are outscoring their opponents by 13.4 points/game on home turf, and outgaining them 349-255 on average.
The Browns are 11-29 ATS in their last 40 versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry. Baltimore is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Ravens are also a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game. Ray Lewis and company are going to come back hungry this week and they'll shut down this Cleveland offense. Bet the Ravens Saturday.
Black Widow
1* New England Patriots -9
After a weekend in which every relevant result broke the New England Patriots' way, their path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC couldn't be clearer. Home victories the next two weeks over 5-9 foes Miami and Buffalo would ensure New England (11-3) won't play anywhere but Foxborough until either the Super Bowl or next season. The Tom Brady-led offense is typically potent, having averaged 35.8 points during the club's six-game winning streak. Saturday's game seems straightforward enough for the Patriots, who've outscored the Dolphins 117-45 in winning all three meetings over the last two seasons. The Patriots limited Reggie Bush to 38 yards on 11 carries in the season opener while Brady stole the show, passing for a team-record 517 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-24 victory Sept. 12. Wes Welker had eight catches for 160 yards in that game, including a 99-yard touchdown. The NFL leader with 104 receptions for a career-high 1,380 yards, Welker has averaged 105.4 receiving yards in eight meetings with the Dolphins, who traded him to New England in 2007. Miami has been playing well in the second half, but as a result, oddsmakers are actually giving them some respect. That has given us some line value in return. New England is by far the superior team and should have no problem winning this one by double-digits with what's at stake for them. The Patriots are 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) in the last 2 weeks of the regular season since 1992, including 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 16. This is a team that certainly knows how to close. New England is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take the Patriots and lay the points.
Larry Ness
San Diego Chargers vs Detroit Lions
Pick: Detroit Lions
The Lions can clinch their first playoff berth since 1999 by beating the Chargers on Sunday.That's quite a turnaround for a team which became the the first & only one to finish a season 0-16 in league history. That wasn't a lifetime ago either, as it happened in 2008. The Lions had lost 47 of 52 before winning their last four last year (including an NFL-record 26 straight on the road) but the team's 12-3-1 ATS record last season gave them every reason to believe this year would be different. Detroit went 4-0 in the preseason and then opened 5-0 for the first time in 55 years! However, they are still the Lions, and FIVE losses in their next seven ensued. Detroit has 'righted the ship' the last two weeks, holding on to beat the Vikings 34-28 (led 31-14 at the half) and then making a spectacular comeback last Sunday at Oakland. The Lions trailed by 13 points well into the fourth quarter but QB Matthew Stafford threw a pair of TDs in the final five minutes, including a six-yarder to Calvin Johnson with 39 seconds left. To cap the comeback, Ndamukong Suh blocked a 65-yard FG attempt on the game's final play, to seal the 28-27 victory. Many questioned Stafford's ability and whether he could stay healthy, in his first two seasons (both were fair criticisms). However, without a running game (97.4 YPG ranks 28th), he's silenced all critics, passing for 4,145 yards (62.7% / 33-14 ratio / 93.8 rating). It sure doesn't hurt to have Calvin Johnson (81 catches / 16.5 YPC / 14 TDs) to throw to but neither Pettigrew (67 catches) nor Burleson (61 catches) are superstars, so Stafford must be doing something right. Expect Stafford to match scores with San Diego's Philip Rivers, who has turned his 'ugly season around. Here's a guy who entered this year off three straight 4,000-yard (or more) seasons, three straight seasons of QB rating of 100-plus (105.5, 104.4 and 101.8) and with a combined TD-to-INT ratio during those three years of 92-33. However, his 17 INTs (after just 10 games) were a single-season high for him. However, he has not thrown an interception in his last four games, while throwing eight TD passes. After starting 4-1, the Chargers (a supremely talented team), lost six straight. However, Rivers has led them to THREE straight wins, averaging 36.3 PPG while he's completed 75.0 percent for an average of 268.0 YPG with a 7-0 ratio. Along with Rivers getting things turned around, RB Ryan Mathews has run for 453 yards his last four games. The Chargers need a lot of help to win the AFC West (face even longer odds to snare a wild card berth) but this team is well-known for playing well down the stretch. Wins over Jacksonville and Buffalo didn't get many people's attention but San Diego's 34-14 blowout of the Ravens, sure did. Rivers completed 17-of-23 passes for 270 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) while the Chargers ran for 145 yards (Baltimore entered allowing an average of 85.8 YPG on the ground). San Diego would score on SIX of its first seven possessions and the only sack the Ravens got was wiped out on a personal foul. It marked the first time in franchise history (254 games) that Baltimore allowed a team to score on its first five drives.The bad news for San Diego is that WR Jackson could miss here (he, Floyd and Gates have all been healthy during the team's three-game winning streak) and I'm not sure that San Diego can match scores with Stafford and Detroit.The Lions have waited a long time to reach this spot (while enduring an 0-16 season and that stretch of 26 road losses). They surely don't want to have to rely on beating the Packers in Green Bay next week to make the playoffs and while I've played the Chargers in each of the last three weeks, I'm going against them here.The weather outside of Ford Field may truly be frightful but 'under the dome,' the Lions get to celebrate some holiday cheer with a Christmas Eve win!
Charlie Scott
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: San Francisco 49ers -1
The wiseguys/ sharps jumped on Seattle +3 after the Niners beat the Steelers Monday Night. Now all the value is gone and we're getting the better team with the better Coaching staff, defense +50 yds rush adv per game. Coaches Harbaugh and Carrol don't like each other from their College Days, I expect the Niners to show up and play hard Today. Seattle is on a nice run, but in reality how many good playoff contending teams have they beaten ?