Scott Rickenbach
St. Louis Rams @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers -12
The Steelers are on a very short week as they have to face the Rams after having traveled to San Francisco on Monday night. Though this may seem like a tough situational spot for Pittsburgh, the reality is that they should blast St Louis. The Steelers are fired up because they scored just 3 points on nearly 400 yards of offense they compiled against the 49'ers Monday. Now, someone has to "pay" for the Steelers "misfortune" on Monday night and that "someone" is the Rams. St Louis is in the wrong place at the wrong time as Pittsburgh is at home seeking payback. Note that the Steelers had won four straight games before losing to the Niners and those four straight victories came by an average margin of 12.5 points per game. Pittsburgh wasn't just winning, they were blowing teams out and more of the same should be expected here. Note that St Louis has lost five straight games and their average margin of defeat has been 14 points per loss. Also, the Rams are a horrific 2-11 ATS this season and with QB Bradford still hurt, there is no reason to expect improvement this week. Another ugly loss for St Louis out of their friendly domed surroundings as they now head to cold, football weather in Pennsylvania. Based on all of the above factors, it's certainly worth considering a small play on Pittsburgh minus the big points on Saturday afternoon.
Joseph D'Amico
St Louis Rams vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -12
As of print, Ben Roethlisberger is most-likely not going to see any action here. It doesn't matter. At 10-4, the Steelers are tied with the Ravens in the AFC North. They have all the motivation in the world to win this one because Baltimore owns the tie-breaker. So Pitt needs to win out. Winning out can not just give Pittsburgh the Division, but possibly the best record in the AFC. The Steelers possess the 2nd ranked "D" in the NFL, allowing just 15.6 PPG. they are #1 against the pass (179.6 YPG) and #1 in total yards allowed (276.9). LB, James Harrison is due back from suspension. Without Big Ben at the helm, the offense will keep the ball on the ground against the Rams 32nd ranked defense against the run. St. Louis gives up 153.4 YPG to the rush. Sam Bradford is shut down for the season, giving Kellen Clemens the start. The depleted OL of St. Louis has given up 49 sacks so far this season. The Pitt "D" will leave little to chance here. The Rams dropped 5 in a row SU, going 0-4-1 ATS, losing by an average of 14.0 PPG. After the Monday Night loss to San Francisco, Pittsburgh needs the win and needs to make a statement to the rest of the NFL here. The Rams are 1-8 ATS their L9 games played on the road, 3-14 ATS their L17 games played as a 'dog of 10 1/2 or more points, and 5-15-1 ATS their L21 games played overall. The Steelers are 7-3 ATS their L10 games played at home, 9-2 ATS their L11 games played following an ATS loss, and 7-0 ATS their L7 following a SU loss. Take Pittsburgh.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee/ Jacksonville Under 40: Very odd last 5 weeks of scored for this tina team as 4 of their last 5 games have landed right at 40, while on game posted just 39 points. Tennessee home games this year have averaged just 39.2 ppg, while Jacksonville road games have averaged just 32.6 ppg. The Jags offense has been pathetic for much of the year and they come in putting up just 14.8 ppg overall and a sorry 11 ppg on the road. Blaine Gabbart has given this offense some hope for the future, but they are still 32 in total offense and 32nd in passing offense. The Jag defense though has had no sorst of problems as they come in ranked 4th overall and 4th vs the pass. That helps us a bit here as Tennessee is not really a passing team anyway and despite the fact that they are 31st in running, they have started to feed Chris Johnson the ball down the stretch and they have put up 141 ypg on the ground in their last 3. The Jags are just middle of the pack (14th) vs the run, so I expect the Titans to continue running the ball, so they don't try and deal with that 4th ranked passing defense, and we know what happens when teams run the ball. It eats the clock. Tennessee is right in the Middle of the pack in Offensive yards per play (5.4), while the Jags are dead last (4.1), while on the other side of the ball Tennessee is 12th in defensive yards per play (5.3) and the Jags are 7th (5.1), so I don't look for a lot of big plays here. These teams will have to use time consuming drives if they wanna score. The bad offense that both teams have to go along with some very good defensive play will have this game at around 31 points.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota +7 over WASHINGTON: I'm gonna steal a couple of trends from Marc Lawrence for this one, that way I don't have to look them up. LOL The Skins are 4-17 ATS as faves off an upset win and 0-14 ATS at home off a SU loss vs a losing team. This is not a Washington team that seems to be able to play a couple of good games in a row. The Skins are off a huge win vs the Giants in their last game, but they haven't won two games in a row this year since the opening 2 games of the year. Washington really should be out of gas in this one. They have no shot at the playoffs, Two weeks ago they gave their all in a loss to the Pats and last week they played well above their heads in the win over the Giants. Now they must try and get up for a Minnesota team that is 2-12 on the year. The Vikings may have been out of it for a long time and they were just spanked by the Saints, but prior to that game they lost by just 6 at Detroit, but just 3 vs Denver, they played Atlanta very tough and they lost by just 6 vs Oakland, so this is a team that hasn't given up. The Vikes have given up 211 points in their last 6 games, but Washington doesn't have a good enough offense to take advantage. On the other side, Christian Ponder and Adrian Petersen have jump started this offense as they come in averaging 26.7 ppg with 373.7 ypg overall and 167 ypg on the ground in their last 3 games. Washington defense has been average overall and they can be run on as they have allowed 112 ypg on the year, so I look for AP to have a good game here. Washington played their hearts out in the last 2 games and will have nothing left for Minnesota here. Vikes outright.
San Diego/ Detroit Over 52: This will be a Google News play (16-8). I will have the article done by noon. This should be a flat out shootout. The Chargers offense is clicking on all Cylinders right now as they have averaged 36.3 ppg and 404 ypg in their last 3 games. This offense is healthy and Rivers has been on fire with 268 ypg in his last 3 games, while in his last 4 games he has 7 TD's on ZERO INT's. This is a scary offense when they don't turn the ball over and today they will take on a Detroit defense that is not very good. The Lions come in allowing 23.7 ppg overall, while in their last 6 games this defense has really struggled, allowing 30.8 ppg in their last 6 games, while a pass defense that is 12th overall (218 ypg), has allowed 281.6 ypg through the air in their last 5 games. Rivers must be licking his chops right now. The San Diego defense has played very well in their 3 game win streak (12.7 ppg), but this Detroit offense is very good, especially on the fast track of Ford Field, where they have averaged 29.3 ppg and 366.1 ypg. This is a desperation game for both team and neither coach will leave anything in the bag here. I look for lots of passing plays and scoring as this one sails Over the total. KEY TREND--- SAN DIEGO is 17-4 OVER in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.
BALTIMORE -12.5 over Cleveland: Last week the Ravens clinched a playoff berth despite the loss to San Diego, but they still have plenty to play for as if they win their last 2 games they will clinch the AFC North. Cleveland has nothing to play for and after allowing 34 points to the Chargers last week you can bet the Ravens defense is pissed and will be gunning for a shutout vs a pathetic Cleveland offense that has put up just 13.9 ppg and 294.4 ypg. Seneca Wallace really looked decent last week, but it was vs a weak Arizona defense, and the Browns still only got 213 yards passing and 17 points in the loss. The Ravens are perfect at home this year and they have allowed just 15 ppg and 254.6 ypg in the process. The Ravens offense has played really well at home as they have put up 28.4 ppg and 254 ypg on their home field this year. Well without a calculator we see that they have won their home games by 13.4 ppg. Cleveland has gone 3-4 on the road and they have been outscored by just 6 ppg in those games, but they have been outscored by double digits in their 3 road games vs team that will be in the playoffs this year. the Ravens really need to have a good games here and as well as they have played at home this year, I see them winning this one with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
San Francisco/ Seattle Under 37.5: The last 5 games for the Niners have averaged just 28.2 ppg, with only one of those games putting up more than today's total. Their defense has been stellar this year as they have allowed just 12.2 ppg overall, including just 9.4 ppg in the aforementioned last 5 games. Even an improved Seattle offense that has put up 33 ppg in their last 3 games will have problems scoring vs this defense. The Seattle defense has also been improved this year as they have allowed just 19.5 ppg overall and just 14.7 ppg in their last 6 games. The niners play a grind it out style of offense that uses alot of clock and has been worked to protection by them this year and I see more of the same here, which will keep the scoring way down in this one.
NY Giants/ Jets Over 47: Last week was a low scoring game for the giants, but in their previous 3 games and average of 72.3 ppg was scored. The Giants have no running game to speak of and that has prompted Eli to toss the ball all over the field. The Giants come in ranked 3rd in passing (299 ypg) and 13th in points scored (23.9 ppg), while their defense is 29th (385.1 ypg) overall, 29th vs the pass (257.5 ypg), plus 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg). The Jet offense has taken off down the stretch as they have averaged 29.5 ppg in their last 4 games and the Jets have put up 27.3 ppg at home this year. This is a big rivalry game and these teams really let it all out when they play each other, as evidenced, by the fact that the last 3 in the series has pout up at least 59 points in each games. Both offense are clicking right now and that has me seeing another shootout here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Miami/ New England Under 50: I really don't see these teams putting up the same numbers as in the first meeting. The Pats don't have a great defense or even a good one, but Miami has been all about the run late and that will eat some clock. The Miami running game will be key as they hope to keep the ball away from the Pats high powered offense. We know New England can score, but the Dolphins defense has played really well down the stretch as they have allowed just 14.7 ppg in their last 7 games. I look for no more than 45 in this one.
Erin Rynning
Oakland/Kansas City Over 42
The Chiefs simply look to be much better on offense with the change to Kyle Orton at quarterback. In fact, just being average will be a huge upgrade over Tyler Palko. You could clearly see this when Kansas City took down the Packers in Week 15. Last week, the Chiefs piled up yardage, but couldn't get the ball in the end zone. However, that provides us with a hint of value for this contest.
Jacksonville/Tennessee Under 40
The Jaguars continue to be a disaster on offense with the awful Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. He clearly lost his confidence a long time ago. The Jaguars have crossed the 14 point barrier just twice in their last nine football games. Meanwhile, the Titans offense is far from a picnic. Matt Hasselbeck is washed up, while he has few playmakers to work with.
Tampa Bay/Carolina Over 47.5
We'll continue to ride Cam Newton and this Carolina offense to score their fair share of points. The Panthers offense has now scored 23-plus points in five straight games. Meanwhile, both defensive units are hampered by the injury bug. The Buccaneers are now without their two key defensive building blocks in Gerald McCoy and Aqib Talib. Meanwhile, the Panthers front seven has also been gutted because of injuries.
Bryan Leonard
Denver at Buffalo Over 41
When facing weaker defenses the Broncos have put up 23 against New England, 35 against Minnesota and 38 against Oakland. Denver is willing to trade points when not facing tough defensive squads and the Bills are one of the weakest stop units in the NFL. In the last three weeks
Bronco games have averaged 51.3 points and that includes a Chicago game in which field position and defense were the keys to the contest. Buffalo has permitted 23 points or more to seven-straight opponents and 12 of the last 13.
Jacksonville at Tennessee Under 40
Overall six of the last seven meetings have failed to reach the posted total including a 16-14 season opening win for the Jaguars. While the Jags' last three games overall have surpassed 50 points those games were heavily screwed because of turnovers. Jacksonville has scored 17 points
or less in eight of their last nine games. The last eight games for Tennessee have seen final points scored of 41 or less and that included games against weaker defenses.
Tampa Bay at Carolina Over 47.5
Bucs defense has permitted 31, 41, 38, 23, 35, 37 and 27 points since their bye. That includes the 38-19 loss to these Panthers just three weeks ago. We like to look over the total late in the season with both squads playing out the string. Carolina will put points on the board which will force the Bucs to air it out offensively. The Panthers have held three of their last four opponents to 19 points or less but that was against three back-up signal callers.
OC Dooley
49ers / Seahawks Over 37.5
San Francisco is coming off yet another defensive gem Monday Night shutting down visiting Pittsburgh by a 20-3 count. With the entire country getting to see the 49ers play below the posted total for the seventh time in the past nine games, this particular late afternoon has been kept in check. But a long streak of defensive prosperity that has seen San Francisco hold opposing running backs below 100 yards on the ground 13 times, could be put in serious jeopardy up against a suddenly red-hot Seattle offense which in the past three weeks alone has put at least 30 points on the scoreboard in each contest. During that three-game winning streak veteran Marshawn Lynch has tallied five touchdowns and he officially has become the first Seattle running back to get over the 1,000-yard plateau since way back in 2005 when Shaun Alexander pulled off the trick. With Lynch becoming such as dangerous option out of the backfield, there has been less pressure put on the shoulders of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson who during the winning streak has thrown NO interceptions. Since there is a strong possibility that they will have to face the high-octane attacks of either Green Bay or New Orleans in the upcoming playoffs, the normally conservative San Francisco offense has attempted to crank up the PASSING attack against in the past few “divisional” games, since they have already wrapped up the NFC West title. Two weeks ago the 49ers uncharacteristically threw 42 different times, as opposed to just 21 rushes. Three weeks ago San Francisco threw deep four times and connected once on a 56-YARD touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree, which was the team’s longest completion of the season. Turning to the database in the past two years Seattle has gone amazing 12-1 OVER the total when facing an opponent with a winning record. But the big news is a whopping “24-4” SYSTEM (86% the past five years) which takes teams like Seattle who have covered the spread four times in a six-game span OVER the total, against an opponent who has cashed winning betting tickets six times in an eight-game span
Bob Balfe
Jets -3 over Giants
This is a home game for both teams and is indeed a playoff game. The loser of this will almost not make the playoffs. This game is all about matchups and coaching. For starters I think Tom Coughlin has lost this team and I do not think he is going to be back. On offense the Giants will be without Ballard and Manningham. The Jets will be able to shutdown the other key offensive weapons and I just do not think the Giants are good enough to run on the Jets after being injured almost all season at that spot. This is going to be a great game, but I think in the end the Jets Veteran players will do a little bit more to win this game. Take the Jets.
Eric Williams
St Louis Rams vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -11
Big Ben or no Big Ben, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the easy pick to roll all over the beleaguered St. Louis Rams in this Week 16 mismatch. Besides, it’s not like veteran backup Charlie Batch is a clueless rookie that’s going to throw the game away for the Steelers. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS in their L/7 games following an SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Rams are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 1-6-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is also 5-2 ATS in their L/7 Saturday games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Lat but not least, the Rams are 1-7 ATS in their L/8 games as a road underdog and 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games overall. The Steelers cover the spread with the blowout win here gridiron gamblers!
SPORTS WAGERS
Nevada +9½ over Southern Miss
Forget all the stats and matchups that usually go along with handicapping a football game. The Hawaii Bowl is unlike any other Bowl because it’s played on the beautiful island of Hawaii and it’s not like going to Ford Field in Detroit for instance. Nevada falls into a couple of good bowl situations with the first one being that they’ve made this trip twice before with the latest being just two seasons ago. That’s a nice edge over a Southern Miss team that has never been here. Larry Fedora will be coaching his final game with Southern Miss after recently accepting the same position at North Carolina. His troops will want to send him off with a victory but the coach has nothing to lose and he’ll likely tell his team to have fun, as this is a once in a lifetime trip. Furthermore, the Golden Eagles feel slighted stuck playing in this game instead of a better bowl game after knocking off Houston as a 13½-point pooch. To recap, that’s three strikes against a big favorite (first time in Hawaii, coach leaving, feeling snubbed). Southern Miss is a solid team but Nevada's pistol offense is really tough to defend if you have never seen it and that’s precisely the situation here. Nevada is in a better situation and we expect the Wolf Pack to be able to score plenty to stay well within this range and perhaps pull off the upset. Play: Nevada +9½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).